SUFC: The Future The regeneration of Roots Hall

[JD]

Maybe, but still nearly a Million less than in recent seasons.

300k less. Justin said it’s been losing £2m up to now.

 

[overseas shrimper]

Justin said on the podcast that they are expecting a loss of £1.7m, I would assume those calcs include a reliance of the expected 7300 average crowds.

Yes, but my point was that they've factored in for crowds going down (or up) rather than being reliant on an average of 7300.

 

[Smiffy]

A 7,300 average over the season will need us to be fighting for playoffs at the very least.

 

[Supershrimper]

Is that loss this year including clearing some of the debts owed to creditors? So actual loss is £1m but extra £700k is generated because that's payment to owed creditors.

 

[JD]

Yes, but my point was that they've factored in for crowds going down (or up) rather than being reliant on an average of 7300.

Fair enough, but less than 7300 average means more money from the consortium to cover the bigger than 1.7m loss.

 

[Holy Joe]

Is that loss this year including clearing some of the debts owed to creditors? So actual loss is £1m but extra £700k is generated because that's payment to owed creditors.

That's what I wondered a cashflow rather than accounting loss?

 

[JD]

That's what I wondered a cashflow rather than accounting loss?

I would think (hope) it’s cash flow, I can’t get to grips with a £2m loss otherwise.

 

[overseas shrimper]

Fair enough, but less than 7300 average means more money from the consortium to cover the bigger than 1.7m loss.

There will be always be implications. JR said that they put a bit more into the playing budget due to the increased season ticket sales (implying they're ready to make up the projected 1.7m shortfall). A drop in gates will mean COSU dip onto their pockets or reduce expenditure, affecting some of the quick win plans outlined by TL in yesterday's update.

 

[Hooly]

Interesting comments from Justin and Tom Arnold on the Shrimperscast podcast that’s come out today.

Few bits that stood out.

2) The amount of money we get from Ron to help pay for redevelopment ranges from £7m-£12m depending on the outcome of Fossetts and the deal the council eventually signs with Ron
3) East stand development is likely to be the last thing they do

Indeed a very good review, but what I think needs rationalising by those who want everything today is

2) Has come down from the £20m that even Justin admitted was his original expectation. So, although I'm sure COSU had plans B to Z, fans need to recognise that reduction of anything up to £13m.
3) Justin punted a minimum of £15m for the East redevelopment itself. The lowest possible he thinks that could be done for & he currently can't guess when that could happen.

So some people just need to go figure how those sums align along with a loss making club & works on both West & North stands required. Although there are funding avenues that they can & are exploring that won't be a short term project.

 

[defender05]

So much for someone being told there were doing the East stand first now.

I'm sure it's being looked at but the current deal with the club shop must be costing the club some money. If the club could take over it again there is so more merchandise that could be sold apart from replica shirts and training gear.

 

[Holy Joe]

That's what I wondered a cashflow rather than accounting loss?

Having listened to the podcast I think it's accounting loss. Wants to reduce losses from £2m to £1.7m with a stretch target of £1.6m (not sure if that bit was a joke)

 

[Westcliff Shrimper]

A 7,300 average over the season will need us to be fighting for playoffs at the very least.

Even with 4,400(?) season ticket holders, that means 2,500 to 3,000 extra home fans with the average away fans being a couple of hundred per match (at the most). Kicking around midtable won't do it...

 

[Tommy2holes]

Even with 4,400(?) season ticket holders, that means 2,500 to 3,000 extra home fans with the average away fans being a couple of hundred per match (at the most). Kicking around midtable won't do it...

Exactly.

Trying to trim the wage bill is good but it lends itself to mid table football and crowds of 5500.

A higher wage bill and better players lends itself to promotion to the EFL and a boost of 1.5 million and crowds in excess of 8k.

Trying to get promotion on a lower budget isn't going to work, nor will a smaller squad. Case in point right now when injuries hit.

At some point decisions will need to be made to really go for it with transfers, or I can see us staying in the national league a long time

 

[Tommy2holes]

Indeed a very good review, but what I think needs rationalising by those who want everything today is

2) Has come down from the £20m that even Justin admitted was his original expectation.

So, although I'm sure COSU had plans B to Z, fans need to recognise that reduction of anything up to £13m.
3) Justin punted a minimum of £15m for the East redevelopment itself. The lowest possible he thinks that could be done for & he currently can't guess when that could happen.

So some people just need to go figure how those sums align along with a loss making club & works on both West & North stands required. Although there are funding avenues that they can & are exploring that won't be a short term project.

The only way this club breaks even is with EFL football. It can't be done in the national league. The crowds and income just isn't there.

 

[Holy Joe]

The only way this club breaks even is with EFL football. It can't be done in the national league. The crowds and income just isn't there.

Which is why the club is looking at other revenue streams. Justin said the big dents in reducing losses from £1.7m will come from new East Stand and hiring out pitches at the training ground.

 

[Leigh_Seasider]

Exactly.

Trying to trim the wage bill is good but it lends itself to mid table football and crowds of 5500.

A higher wage bill and better players lends itself to promotion to the EFL and a boost of 1.5 million and crowds in excess of 8k.

Trying to get promotion on a lower budget isn't going to work, nor will a smaller squad. Case in point right now when injuries hit.

At some point decisions will need to be made to really go for it with transfers, or I can see us staying in the national league a long time

What if we spend fortunes on transfers and we don’t get promoted? Besides, who is out there now that we can sign that’s not already at a club and is going to come in and make an immediate impact? Bonne, Walker and Moncur have proven pedigree at this level or higher and at their peak they’d be bloody impressive signings. Sadly they’re lacking in match practice, the likes of Pearce were long gone once we were able to actually sign anyone.

Maybe people should look at next season as the promotion season. We’ll do well to be in contention this season plus get all the ground improvements done.

 

[Mr Browns Ghost]

A 7,300 average over the season will need us to be fighting for playoffs at the very least.

Absolutely and to do that … guess what ? We need to get a squad not full of conrwell and Gloucestershire division 8 players

 

[rigsby]

Exactly.

Trying to trim the wage bill is good but it lends itself to mid table football and crowds of 5500.

A higher wage bill and better players lends itself to promotion to the EFL and a boost of 1.5 million and crowds in excess of 8k.

Trying to get promotion on a lower budget isn't going to work, nor will a smaller squad. Case in point right now when injuries hit.

At some point decisions will need to be made to really go for it with transfers, or I can see us staying in the national league a long time

For L2 its about £1.1m in TV and solidarity payments. In the NL its £200,000. So promotion is worth £900,00. Hopefully enough to cover the higher wage bill for EFL players.

Then if RH was not developed some would still want bigger spending to get us in L1. Then the dream of the Championship and then we could......go bust like we nearly did the last two times when we punched above our weight without the infrastructure to even survive let alone thrive.

 

[Bearded Shrimper]

most important, what are the chances of getting a beer in the West for Gateshead? Has anything changed other than the bar now missing some wall?

 

[Tommy2holes]

For L2 its about £1.1m in TV and solidarity payments. In the NL its £200,000. So promotion is worth £900,00. Hopefully enough to cover the higher wage bill for EFL players.

Then if RH was not developed some would still want bigger spending to get us in L1. Then the dream of the Championship and then we could......go bust like we nearly did the last two times when we punched above our weight without the infrastructure to even survive let alone thrive.

That's not exactly true. Yes wages will go up along with promotion.

You fail to factor in an increase in gates, particularly away fans. Whats the average away support in the national league? 100 odd. It will likely increase to 500 in the EFL. Let's say its £22 and adult and £10 concessions at an average of about £15. £15x400 = 120k. Its not a lot but it could be a higher away support than that.

I'm not suggesting that roots Hall should remain neglected. Getting the north/west corner sorted will increase revenue in home tickets.

The fan zone will help match day income as will a revamped west bar etc.

Saving on electric bulbs in the flood lights will also save 1000s.

The main money Spinner will be the east stand which Cosu have admitted could be several years away.

Advertising pays higher in the EFL. TV money is higher (if chosen)

The chances of a decent cup run increase with inclusion to the league Cup, later FA cup rounds and league trophy etc.

It's probably far closer to 2 million+