yogi bear up the cagire
Life President⭐
Yogi, I’m not sure whether you read my earlier post making predictions for how this will all play out?
Well, Tuesdays votes in parliament, Tory and DUP unity behind the focus now on amending provisions to maintain no hard border on Ireland and any deal to be struck at the 11th hour before (or on) 29 March including a temporary extension of a matter of a few weeks to allow necessary legislation to be passed are all on track to be what happens.
Don’t forget, extending now or ruling out no deal would not bring the EU back to the negotiating table and for that reason alone it was vital we didn’t do that on Tuesday. That doesn’t mean that we won’t extend or that the government wants no deal. It is purely a matter of timing because the EU will not budge until they are forced to and they will at that point, mark my words. What will happen will be a face saving measure that allows UK integrity to be maintained but the EU to claim that the border is protected. It is not all the details of the technology, for example, which is absolutely deliverable but will take a year or two to develop, that is being worked out now it is purely a political mechanism for how we and the EU will agree an end to the transition period. My money is on the can being kicked down the road on that by it being agreed that there will be some kind of regular review / decision points on progress during the transition period regarding its extension or end. That is totally possible and very easy, it just takes the political will to do it - and the EU will get there in the end (but only right at the end).
Yes I did, alhough I think my conclusions are a little different from yours............................is that surprising?
I perfectly understand the logic of what went on in the HoC earlier this week. Yes, the Brady amendment displayed what may be necessary to get the deal through the House (I say maybe, because hard-nose ERG members may always demand more blood). The problem is, what arranges the parliamentary Conservative & Unionist parties, is not often to the liking of the EU. I believe what the EU has said about not re-opening the withdrawal agreement. In my view they are not going to take out the backstop, give it a time limit or allow the UK to withdraw from it unilaterally. IIUC they don't see what you and the government believe, is providing the EU with an indication of what it wants...........................it sees it more as what, as usual, the UK doesn't want............i.e. the backstop. The only way the EU will budge is if an alternative is suggested...........for the moment, as I understand, that doesn't exist. I don't have the knowledge to know how this can be achieved or how long it will take but I do believe the EU won't move on the backstop until there is a viable alternative.Neither side wants the catastrophy of a no-deal and in my opinion this will probably be avoided (but don't quote me on that!
) The way it will be done, in my view, is not by the EU buckling but by the leaving date just being pushed back and pushed back...........until the UK come up with the alternative solution to the backstop, which will be acceptable to both sides. Thus we approach a period of limbo....................which may be quite a long one.
Meanwhile, Corbyn, realised the enormous error he had made in making a meeting , for cross party talks with May, conditional. He must have been hugely relieved to jump upon on that weak amendment wishing to avoid a no deal, to backtrack on what he said............but his judgement has again been questioned and has come up short. I don't think it will become any easier as the cruch comes closer and he will be dragged (kicking and screaming? 
