Brexit negotiations thread

[Sandbach Shrimper]

It seems there are four options: negotiate a new deal, have a general election, have another referendum or no deal.

The way I see it, no deal is the only conclusive way to end this mess and the uncertainty. The EU won't budge much on a deal, a general election won't solve anything as both parties are divided on the issue, and a second referendum would be damaging to our democracy and there's no suggestion the result would be massively different.

I'm not saying no deal would be easy, nothing is, but at least we wouldn't have to pay £39bn to the EU, we won't have this long transition period and we'll be properly free from the EU, which is what people voted for.

I'm not sure why the flag-waving Remoaners outside parliament were celebrating last night so much - article 50 states that if we don't agree a deal, we leave without one on 29th March.

The only other solution is a civil war... I'd fancy Leave to win.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

JC

JC and the rest?

There are other parties in this country besides red and blue: SNP, CC, Green etc.
And there is the non elected other house which gives opinions, and there are persons like the Khan who hold power and make statements but few helping ones.
This issue, Brexit, is surely, and always should have been, a cross party business to achieve a best for UK solution in line with a democratic vote.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

There are other parties in this country besides red and blue: SNP, CC, Green etc.
And there is the non elected other house which gives opinions, and there are persons like the Khan who hold power and make statements but few helping ones.
This issue, Brexit, is surely, and always should have been, a cross party business to achieve a best for UK solution in line with a democratic vote.

I didn't see the debate yesterday but apparently many opposition MPs stood up to make the point that the government had rejected all attempts from other parties to engage over Brexit.

I'm not sure that it would have been much help to be honest, within the government there were various splits on the way forward (13 Cabinet members quit over this one subject) so trying to incorporate other parties would just muddy the waters.

So apparently other parties offered but the government decided to go it alone.

 

[GBJ]

There is a way out of this for Brexiteer MPs - vote down the government that have failed your cause, vote in a Brexit leader of the Conservative Party, fight an election on a real Brexit mandate.

As both a remainer & a Corbyn supporter, what is your position on Corbyn winning a GE, and then pursuing a Brexit deal?

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

It seems there are four options: negotiate a new deal, have a general election, have another referendum or no deal.

The way I see it, no deal is the only conclusive way to end this mess and the uncertainty. The EU won't budge much on a deal, a general election won't solve anything as both parties are divided on the issue, and a second referendum would be damaging to our democracy and there's no suggestion the result would be massively different.

I'm not saying no deal would be easy, nothing is, but at least we wouldn't have to pay £39bn to the EU, we won't have this long transition period and we'll be properly free from the EU, which is what people voted for.

I'm not sure why the flag-waving Remoaners outside parliament were celebrating last night so much - article 50 states that if we don't agree a deal, we leave without one on 29th March.

The only other solution is a civil war... I'd fancy Leave to win.

The government can't get no deal through Parliament. At the moment they can't get anything much through Parliament so it seems logical to hold a GE and a party can stand on a no deal platform.

 

[GBJ]

What struck me about the reaction to the vote last night was the jubilance of both camps of protesters on College Green (and by various MP's eager to face the cameras tbf.)

Clearly,both leave and remain can't have won. It's going to be an interesting couple of weeks.

Although predictions & forecasts are pointless at this juncture, I feel that this pushes us closer to leaving with no deal, than it does a second referendum, or a GE.

Not sure why remainers were celebrating, other than the fact that May lost something.

 

[MK Shrimper]

Although predictions & forecasts are pointless at this juncture, I feel that this pushes us closer to leaving with no deal, than it does a second referendum, or a GE.

Not sure why remainers were celebrating, other than the fact that May lost something.

I don't think there is any appetite in the HOP for a no-deal, despite what the ERG say....and I should hope not. It's economic suicide.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

As both a remainer & a Corbyn supporter, what is your position on Corbyn winning a GE, and then pursuing a Brexit deal?

I'm happy to go with Conference which is to call a GE and renegotiate with the EU. Without May's red lines a new deal is possible. Personally (and probable policy) that should then go to a new referendum - Leave/Remain, if Leave wins the Corbyn'sdeal/No deal - as the options.

The referendum was on the understanding that Cameron would enact the result, May can't get anything through Parliament, seems logical to me that if Corbyn was PM then his deal should go to the public as Cameron was in place last time and he is long gone.

 

[Gt Yarmouth Shrimper]

I'm not saying no deal would be easy, nothing is, but at least we wouldn't have to pay £39bn to the EU,

Oh yes we will. We're contractually obliged to pay that money.
Before anyone suggests we stiff them for it, bear in mind that no country on the planet will deal with us after shafting our partners.

 

[MK Shrimper]

I reckon Corbyn will be in the same boat as May if he tried a deal with the EU. There is no majority for any course of action from any side.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

Oh yes we will. We're contractually obliged to pay that money.
Before anyone suggests we stiff them for it, bear in mind that no country on the planet will deal with us after shafting our partners.

For sure there is a bill to pay the EU, obligations to meet, contracts to honour AND that will cost many many billions BUT the 39 billion was tied into May's defunct plan AND now a new plan is needed and negotiations include, I respectfully suggest, the exit bill.

 

[GBJ]

I'm happy to go with Conference which is to call a GE and renegotiate with the EU. Without May's red lines a new deal is possible. Personally (and probable policy) that should then go to a new referendum - Leave/Remain, if Leave wins the Corbyn'sdeal/No deal - as the options.

The referendum was on the understanding that Cameron would enact the result, May can't get anything through Parliament, seems logical to me that if Corbyn was PM then his deal should go to the public as Cameron was in place last time and he is long gone.

So the end game is another referendum?

I see.

I’m still not sure why you think the ‘remaining’ option would be put onto the ballot though? That ship has democratically sailed.

Would you be content with the voting options being Corbyn’s deal or no deal?

 

[Bielzibubz]

I wonder how many Brexiteers back in 2013 would sit in their living rooms thinking "curse the EU and its undemocratic processes". Just a thought that past mind as I surveyed the carnage of last night..... anyway I digress.

It is all very well people going "you lost". Yeah, we lost. But you won and really it was down to the winners to explain what they wanted. They didn't. There have been bland statements about Canada+, Norway, etc, but no-one really knows how they would work. Both certainly involve a border in Northern Ireland. And that's the problem that isn't going away.

Without playing the poster, I asked you @Bielzibubz how you'd solve the Northern Ireland issue. It wasn't a fair question (I knew the answer), but your answer was honest. You didn't know and gave responsibility to those who have to think about that kind of thing.

However, these were the very same people who were saying in June 2016 that Northern Ireland wasn't solveable without there being significant risks to the Good Friday Agreement, and the UK's standing in WTO rules. The same people Michael Gove said of "I think we've had enough of experts". And so here we are with no practical working solution to Northern Ireland that will keep the Union intact, meets WTO rules, be agreeable with the EU and will get DUP support.

You also asked for a solution to the impasse.....

It is in fact what she should have done at the beginning and ascertain what Brexit really was. She needed to move away from the "Brexit means Brexit" and "No Deal is better than a bad deal" mantra. We needed some honesty about how things really work, and not just dismiss them as "Project Fear". It is utter insanity that even now when Government issue technical notices about Day One that sections still shout "scaremongering". The entire ****show has been toxic and devisive.

So, her plan should be.

* Seek an extension to A50. If that is rejected she should revoke A50 (she can invoke it again later)

* Seek cross party support to find out what kind of arrangement could get the support of Parliament. This effectively means ignoring the ERG wing of her party (that spat its load in November and now cannot bring down her Premiership). Make it clear that a second referendum and no deal are not options. Concentrate on the issue of leaving.

* Go back to Brussels with a set of priciples that would form the basis of a new negotiation, this time in the knowledge it has backing from the HoC.

* Negotiate transparently, so the HoC isn't faced with something drastically different than the negotiating plan.

* Once negotiations are completed, take it back to the HoC for ratification,

* If needs be invoke A50 again, but with an extremely short timescale (days, not months), and a transition period tagged on the end to allow for new legisation, technology and guidance to be brought into line

* Leave.

I think the one thing we can all agree on. This entire process has left the country broken and divided.

Although I like your thinking LF I really don't thing of any scenario or plan that would get cross party support in the HoC.

One thing I'm pretty sure of though is that should Brexit not happen and the EU get what they've wanted all along then there is going to be serious unrest in this country and I don't mean just a few thousand making a loud noise outside Parliament on a wet Wednesday afternoon.

 

[GBJ]

I don't think there is any appetite in the HOP for a no-deal, despite what the ERG say....and I should hope not. It's economic suicide.

Whilst I’m not necessarily an advocate of leaving with no deal, it seems to me that it’s our only option.

Considering that, as you said, it’s unlikely that anybody will get a majority deal through Parliament, I see only one options left, which rightly or wrongly, would be the only democratic thing to do.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

I'm happy to go with Conference which is to call a GE and renegotiate with the EU. Without May's red lines a new deal is possible. Personally (and probable policy) that should then go to a new referendum - Leave/Remain, if Leave wins the Corbyn'sdeal/No deal - as the options.

The referendum was on the understanding that Cameron would enact the result, May can't get anything through Parliament, seems logical to me that if Corbyn was PM then his deal should go to the public as Cameron was in place last time and he is long gone.

In reality, it would be a bigger shock than the majority against the deal last night, if the government were to fall. Turkeys, Christmas and all that........the Tories will close ranks to a man/woman and the DUP will fall in behind. The motion will fail. Will that then shift a bit of the heat onto Corbyn, who will presumably be pressured towards a second vote, which I don't think he's too keen on?

 

[MK Shrimper]

So as I said previously it's a choice between economic turmoil or social turmoil. What will do more damage to the fabric of the UK and it's people? What would be longer lasting?

 

[Bielzibubz]

I'm happy to go with Conference which is to call a GE and renegotiate with the EU. Without May's red lines a new deal is possible. Personally (and probable policy) that should then go to a new referendum - Leave/Remain, if Leave wins the Corbyn'sdeal/No deal - as the options.

The referendum was on the understanding that Cameron would enact the result, May can't get anything through Parliament, seems logical to me that if Corbyn was PM then his deal should go to the public as Cameron was in place last time and he is long gone.

One major and inescapable problem with your option. The EU will NOT negotiate any deal that sees the UK walk away from Brussels with any more concessions that those given to TM. They have stated categorically that there will be no more negotiating to make the UK's exit any easier. JC would be in the same, if not worse, position than TM currently finds herself. It's a fact of life that in any negotiations you have to have red lines in place and you have to be prepared to walk away from those negotiations if those red lines are met or passed.

The referendum wasn't on the understanding that DC would enact the result. It was on the understanding that the elected Government and Parliament would. Who as a person is immaterial. Your blind allegiance to a political cause and your hatred of the Tory party and TM I think is clouding your judgement.

 

[blues exile]

Two and a half years wasted by May as her priority was keeping her fractured party together rather than meaningful negotiations. Waffle about ambitious bespoke agreements witnout ever specifying exactly what she wanted, as Merkel and many others have asked her and are still asking now. Labour has very clear and specific proposals for proper negotiations which unlike the Tories they would approach in a spirit of cooperation and constructiveness. Banging on the table, getting red in the face and shouting is not going to achieve anything, but that is what the fanatical Brexiteers wanted and we now see the result

 

[GBJ]

So as I said previously it's a choice between economic turmoil or social turmoil. What will do more damage to the fabric of the UK and it's people? What would be longer lasting?

Tough to say what would be worse.

Economically, we’d struggle for years, although it’s undetermined just how many years. Could be 1, could be 10, could be 100. Nobody knows. And as such, it’s impossible to tell just how bad it could get. It could entail recession, job losses, a rise in homelessness. It depends on how quickly we stabilised.

Socially, if the result of the 2016 ref wasn’t upheld, then carnage would be assured. Riots on the streets being the first thing. I said to you once before, that if only 1% of the 17m Brexiteers decided upon a show of displeasure, then it’d make the 2011 riots look like child play.

Then add to the fact that remainers have been saying for the last 2 years how this whole Brexit scenario has brought about the re-up of far-right extremism. You think that would just dissipate? Or exacerbate?

Also, Could parliament continue in its current form? It would require a lot of apathy & submission from the masses. The Tories would be done, they’d never get back in power in our lifetime.

It’s a bleak outcome whatever route we go down.

 

[Lord Football]

One thing I'm pretty sure of though is that should Brexit not happen and the EU get what they've wanted all along then there is going to be serious unrest in this country and I don't mean just a few thousand making a loud noise outside Parliament on a wet Wednesday afternoon.

I agree with you on this matter.

The thing is, there will also be unrest once the horrors of a no deal start costing jobs and raising prices.

The irony is that its the same group of people who'll end up on the streets.

What an absolute mess this is.