Brexit negotiations thread

[GBJ]

Please report it as I have.

Dear oh Lord

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

TM has no chance of winning the vote.
Now she has shown her "hand" any idea of going back to & getting a better deal from the EU rather than NO DEAL is not going to happen.
3 days to make her mind up and, IMO just a few options; she can either call a GE or go to a second referendum. The problem with calling a GE is that all parties (other than Libs) will have difficulty coming up with a believable manifesto. The problem with another vote on EU membership is how to put together a simple, and it has to be an almost stay/go or yes/no voting question: and I doubt the Palace of Westminster will be able to agree on that.
MARCH 29 looms.............

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

TM has no chance of winning the vote.
Now she has shown her "hand" any idea of going back to & getting a better deal from the EU rather than NO DEAL is not going to happen.
3 days to make her mind up and, IMO just a few options; she can either call a GE or go to a second referendum. The problem with calling a GE is that all parties (other than Libs) will have difficulty coming up with a believable manifesto. The problem with another vote on EU membership is how to put together a simple, and it has to be an almost stay/go or yes/no voting question: and I doubt the Palace of Westminster will be able to agree on that.
MARCH 29 looms.............

Personally I think the running down the clock tactic has backfired. GE means she has to quit and that creates big problems with deciding who replaces her and having to rush a decision. New vote is an issue because without a deal to offer the public you are just back to leave or remain and it's difficult to dress that up as anything other than 3 wasted years. I feel she has backed the party into a corner.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

TM has no chance of winning the vote.
Now she has shown her "hand" any idea of going back to & getting a better deal from the EU rather than NO DEAL is not going to happen.
3 days to make her mind up and, IMO just a few options; she can either call a GE or go to a second referendum. The problem with calling a GE is that all parties (other than Libs) will have difficulty coming up with a believable manifesto. The problem with another vote on EU membership is how to put together a simple, and it has to be an almost stay/go or yes/no voting question: and I doubt the Palace of Westminster will be able to agree on that.
MARCH 29 looms.............

Well it's rather like one of those gripping (is that the right word?) TV series, when we arrive at the final episode tonight and expect all the answers. Unfortunately the likely outcome is that not everything will be resolved and we may well have to wait for the 2nd series.........3rd series.............4th series..............!
Being as objective as I can, I do agree that the Lib Dems may benefit the most from a General Election, being quite likely the only English party with a remain platform. Like les Gilet Jaunes here are helping resurrect the Rassemblement National (the old Front National) from the ashes, a General Election could help revive the fortunes of the Lib Dems. Thay've primarily been calling for a second vote over a GE but may benefit more from the latter....................if they could find the money to fight it!

 

[rigsby]

Here is some wise words on the Greek economy

www.youtube.com/watch?v=rK0De210TBQ

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Beth Rigby

✔ @BethRigby



Wow. Speaker doesn’t pick the Murrison amendment. Another blow to May. This was meant to be the contours of plan B. Something to take to Brussels as a reason to give her more on the backstop https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1085159135220510720

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Well it's rather like one of those gripping (is that the right word?) TV series, when we arrive at the final episode tonight and expect all the answers. Unfortunately the likely outcome is that not everything will be resolved and we may well have to wait for the 2nd series.........3rd series.............4th series..............!
Being as objective as I can, I do agree that the Lib Dems may benefit the most from a General Election, being quite likely the only English party with a remain platform. Like les Gilet Jaunes here are helping resurrect the Rassemblement National (the old Front National) from the ashes, a General Election could help revive the fortunes of the Lib Dems. Thay've primarily been calling for a second vote over a GE but may benefit more from the latter....................if they could find the money to fight it!

Or what about one of those Saturday morning cliff hangers at the Mascot (and elsewhere) where the hero would always finish by being left at the cliff edge?You'd come back the next week and find that the goalposts had been moved and the hero wasn't left quite at the cliff edge after all.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

Personally I think the running down the clock tactic has backfired. GE means she has to quit and that creates big problems with deciding who replaces her and having to rush a decision. New vote is an issue because without a deal to offer the public you are just back to leave or remain and it's difficult to dress that up as anything other than 3 wasted years. I feel she has backed the party into a corner.

Exactly, almost, my points on much of this thread have been trying to get some sense from persons as to possible ways forward, not point scoring, AND, as in the UK Guv (and HM Opposition) what has occurred has been, IS still, just hanging on to, grasping the fence and sitting on it: when that is not a way forward or back.
Jeepers it is so frustrating as, as you point out 3 years of uncertainty and back sliding, bottom kissing etc from elected, well paid representatives have got the UK/EU situation nowhere.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

It really does all depend on the size of the defeat. If it's less than a hundred she may be tempted to struggle on, go back to the EU and try (she probably won't succeed) to obtain more concessions. A larger defeat will probably kill the deal off altogether. At that point Labour should table a vote of no confidence in the government.................but will they? It's very unlikely they would win it and it would leave them with not many options other than a people's vote, which I don't think Corbyn is keen on. However, even allowing for all its problems, a second vote could offer us a way out. A way that may not be liked by all but at least one that could possiby be accepted. I'm not at all sure whether it would produce the result I desire and the danger is that it could give a result that many believe will damage the country but do we have a choice? The difficulty would be at least twofold 1) deciding what would go on the ballot paper. 2) Running a debate that really airs the choices and doesn't fall into the depths of the 2016 referendum which was based on lies, deception and manipulation of the electorate from both sides. (not easy!)
I really don't like referendums as a mode of government (the first, at least, should have demanded two thirds support to be accepted ), however, we've let the genie out of the bottle on this issue and failing parliament backing a deal which would be acceptable to the people (difficult), it may be our only way out.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

It really does all depend on the size of the defeat. If it's less than a hundred she may be tempted to struggle on, go back to the EU and try (she probably won't succeed) to obtain more concessions. A larger defeat will probably kill the deal off altogether. At that point Labour should table a vote of no confidence in the government.................but will they? It's very unlikely they would win it and it would leave them with not many options other than a people's vote, which I don't think Corbyn is keen on. However, even allowing for all its problems, a second vote could offer us a way out. A way that may not be liked by all but at least one that could possiby be accepted. I'm not at all sure whether it would produce the result I desire and the danger is that it could give a result that many believe will damage the country but do we have a choice? The difficulty would be at least twofold 1) deciding what would go on the ballot paper. 2) Running a debate that really airs the choices and doesn't fall into the depths of the 2016 referendum which was based on lies, deception and manipulation of the electorate from both sides. (not easy!)
I really don't like referendums as a mode of government (the first, at least, should have demanded two thirds support to be accepted ), however, we've let the genie out of the bottle on this issue and failing parliament backing a deal which would be acceptable to the people (difficult), it may be our only way out.

Exceptional times to live in if a defeat by 100 MP votes on the biggest vote for decades is seen as a green light to carry on!

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

May lost by 232. That is massive!

 

[MK Shrimper]

May lost by 232. That is massive!

An historic loss I believe.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

WOW just WOW!!!!! shows how far from Westminster I live, with my guess of a 73 vote loss! The deal is clearly DEAD DEAD DEAD!!!

 

[GBJ]

So, what’s next?

May to resign? Seems unlikely

May to try and renegotiate with the EU? Probably, but they’re standing firm, so not sure of what concessions they’ll make.

A delay of Article 50? Second referendum?

Leaving with no deal?

 

[GBJ]

Genuine question for remainers & Labour supporters (*** I’m looking at you)

IF Corbyn got into power, would you support his pursuit of Brexit?

 

[Bielzibubz]

Ya'll could not wait to see this deal, Brexit and the Tory party fail could you. Clearly party politics, getting a GE and giving a bloody nose to TM is more important that any democratic process.

So what now. May won't resign. New referendum? Peoples vote on issues explained to them by proven liars? Leave with no deal? Back to the EU and try and get concessions they will NOT give?

Come on, I'd like to hear some answers from those that think they know how. How would YOU bring Brexit to fruition like the country voted for?

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

Ya'll could not wait to see this deal, Brexit and the Tory party fail could you. Clearly party politics, getting a GE and giving a bloody nose to TM is more important that any democratic process.

So what now. May won't resign. New referendum? Peoples vote on issues explained to them by proven liars? Leave with no deal? Back to the EU and try and get concessions they will NOT give?

Come on, I'd like to hear some answers from those that think they know how. How would YOU bring Brexit to fruition like the country voted for?

Agreed, if JC and the rest had pushed for a better deal for the UK (i.e. getting more from the EU) then the negotiations might have gone better. TM should have let DD get on with it and not come up with her own watered down and SO rejectable idea.
Now what? more from the EU? no chance.
Another vote? unlikely as too difficult now to be worded/questioned.
A GE? possible but TM is likely to "win" the confidence not probable.
A new Tory leader, a delay on A50, renegotiate etc;- what a mess!

 

[THE SEVENTIES NORTH BANK]

Ya'll could not wait to see this deal, Brexit and the Tory party fail could you. Clearly party politics, getting a GE and giving a bloody nose to TM is more important that any democratic process.

So what now. May won't resign. New referendum? Peoples vote on issues explained to them by proven liars? Leave with no deal? Back to the EU and try and get concessions they will NOT give?

Come on, I'd like to hear some answers from those that think they know how. How would YOU bring Brexit to fruition like the country voted for?

I refer you to the answers I gave many days ago. May loses vote on her no chance deal. May goes back to EU. May gets something from EU. May gets a new vote on her new deal. 29th March leaving is extended for extra time. That could all go out the window if she is forced to resign tomorrow as losing by 230 votes shows what a mess she has made of 2 and a half years negotiating. No other Prime Minister would survive losing by 230 votes.

 

[Bielzibubz]

That's no answer TSNB.

The EU won't give any more concessions. They can't. She, nor anyone, will get anything more from them. Their No1 priority is and always has been making it as painful and difficult as possible for the UK to leave with anything that even resembles a good deal. They, the Euro Group, want Brexit to fail, and fail big time. The UK's failure to Brexit, should it happen, will be seen as a ringing endorsement in the whole EU/Federalist Superstate ideal as far as they're concerned.

JC has shown himself up for what he is. An opportunistic ****wit who clearly has even less of a clue as to how to deliver Brexit than TM did/has.

 

[THE SEVENTIES NORTH BANK]

That's no answer TSNB.

The EU won't give any more concessions. They can't. She, nor anyone, will get anything more from them. Their No1 priority is and always has been making it as painful and difficult as possible for the UK to leave with anything that even resembles a good deal. They, the Euro Group, want Brexit to fail, and fail big time. The UK's failure to Brexit, should it happen, will be seen as a ringing endorsement in the whole EU/Federalist Superstate ideal as far as they're concerned.

JC has shown himself up for what he is. An opportunistic ****wit who clearly has even less of a clue as to how to deliver Brexit than TM did/has.

You are absolutely right that the EU played hardball from the off. They obviously are making it as painful as possible for anyone else thinking of leaving. But, I saw a political show a couple of weeks back and a Brexit law expert said the EU can give a bit if they want to. I think TM was banking on that when she went with her begging bowl the last few weeks after cancelling her first vote. All she got was assurances again as they played hardball again.