Brexit negotiations thread

[Member]

I actually met with my local MP (Vicky Ford) after she invited me to discuss Brexit with her after a tweet of mine replying to her picked up a big response and a lot of likes. It was very interesting and quite an insight, we didn't agree completely but I was impressed by her. Some of my biggest fears were less of a worry after our conversation.

what was the tweet (if you mind sharing), and which big fears have lessened?

kudos for going and speaking with her.

 

[rigsby]

I actually met with my local MP (Vicky Ford) after she invited me to discuss Brexit with her after a tweet of mine replying to her picked up a big response and a lot of likes. It was very interesting and quite an insight, we didn't agree completely but I was impressed by her. Some of my biggest fears were less of a worry after our conversation.

In or out you city boys will still be smashing it ?

 

[Ricky Otto]

what was the tweet (if you mind sharing), and which big fears have lessened?

kudos for going and speaking with her.

Kudos to Vicky as well I'd say for inviting me, I think she is bombarded with Peoples vote and Leave means leave at the moment. I've attached the tweet and response.

The fears that have lessened somewhat are the chance of no deal and the possibility of JRM or Boris being catapulted to lead the party or be PM.

 

[Member]

Interesting analysis:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic...brexit-deal-leads-just-two-constituencies-it-

Also for a projection post-tuesday...

“When we remove the Deal as an option and reallocate these preferences in a straight Remain Vs No Deal contest we find that Remain would be slightly ahead, winning 52% to 48%”

The needle has barely shifted for May's deal at all, even with the right-wing media really pushing it

 

[Ricky Otto]

In or out you city boys will still be smashing it ?

We all want to hope so given that 11% of the governments tax revenue comes from the city of London. Even the most pro leave people can't ignore that there will be at least a dent in that though, given that Billions has already been moved to the continent with contingency for a lot more to go from the city.

 

[Ricky Otto]

Interesting analysis:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic...brexit-deal-leads-just-two-constituencies-it-

Also for a projection post-Friday...

“When we remove the Deal as an option and reallocate these preferences in a straight Remain Vs No Deal contest we find that Remain would be slightly ahead, winning 52% to 48%”

The needle has barely shifted for May's deal at all, even with the right-wing media really pushing it

The projections were very very wrong last time. In my meeting with Vicky Ford she said she was not willing to back the peoples vote as she wasn't sure that remain would win.

 

[Member]

The projections were very very wrong last time. In my meeting with Vicky Ford she said she was not willing to back the peoples vote as she wasn't sure that remain would win.

I think it depends on the options on the table (e.g. what the vote is actually for) and what happens tomorrow

 

[Ricky Otto]

I think it depends on the options on the table (e.g. what the vote is actually for) and what happens tomorrow

Yep, I think everyone in government is expecting it to be voted down. How close it is will determine if May walks or whether she goes back to the EU and tries to jiggle the deal a little. That is certainly the impression I got in my meeting anyway, although I'd stress it wasn't put in exactly those terms.

 

[rigsby]

We all want to hope so given that 11% of the governments tax revenue comes from the city of London. Even the most pro leave people can't ignore that there will be at least a dent in that though, given that Billions has already been moved to the continent with contingency for a lot more to go from the city.

Where will they move it to......New offices in Paris anyone?

They have covered their bets with satellite offices in the EU but many still see London as there future.

Seeing as you deal with risk....If you had to set up in just one country within Europe, where would it be?

 

[Ricky Otto]

Where will they move it to......New offices in Paris anyone?

They have covered their bets with satellite offices in the EU but many still see London as there future.

Seeing as you deal with risk....If you had to set up in just one country within Europe, where would it be?

Brussels, seeing that Lloyds has re-domiciled there it makes perfect sense. It's just replicating what works already in London. (It is dual domicile with London BTW, don't want to mislead to fit my agenda).

It's going to make a dent, you can't argue with that given the evidence below, it is literally a fact and I'm not one to use the word fact lightly. It is just how much of a dent.


Here's a roundup of the financial exodus so far:


* US bank giants Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup have moved 250 billion euros ($283 billion) of balance-sheet assets to Frankfurt because of Brexit.


* Bank of America is spending $400 million to move staff and operations in anticipation of Brexit, and is trying to persuade London staff to move to Paris.


* Barclays is seeking to transfer €250 billion ($280.8 billion) of business to Dublin and is set to become Ireland's biggest bank.


* France's BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, and Societe Generale have opted to transfer 500 staff out of London to Paris.


* UBS has chosen German financial center Frankfurt for its new EU headquarters.


* Swiss peer Credit Suisse is moving 250 jobs to Germany, Madrid, and Luxembourg among other EU 27 countries as well as $200 million from its market division to Germany.


* Germany's Deutsche Bank is also considering shifting large volumes of assets to Frankfurt as part of its Brexit plan.


* HSBC, Europe's biggest bank, has shifted ownership of many of its European subsidiaries from its London-based entity to its French unit.


* Australia's largest bank by assets, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, has set in motion plans to base around 50 staff in Amsterdam, and has applied
for a banking licence in the country.


* Other Australian lenders Macquarie, Westpac, and ANZ are also in talks to move operations to Dublin and continental Europe.


* Europe’s biggest repo trading venue, called BrokerTec, is being moved to Amsterdam from London, meaning a $240 billion a day repo business is leaving the UK.


* More than 100 UK-based asset managers and funds have applied to the Irish central bank for authorization in Ireland.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Where will they move it to......New offices in Paris anyone?

They have covered their bets with satellite offices in the EU but many still see London as there future.

Seeing as you deal with risk....If you had to set up in just one country within Europe, where would it be?

Frankfurt seems to be the current favourite,after Paris of course.Incidentally our younger daughter is hoping to get a job in Paris after she leaves her present post in Bogota.She works for AFD-Agence Française de Développement.

 

[Member]

Frankfurt seems to be the current favourite,after Paris of course.Incidentally our younger daughter is hoping to get a job in Paris after she leaves her present post in Bogota.

Actually Dublin is coming out as one of the preferred places for relocation of the financial sector, above Paris.

https://www.ey.com/uk/en/newsroom/n...in-europe-as-prospect-of-no-deal-brexit-grows

 

[rigsby]

Frankfurt seems to be the current favourite,after Paris of course.Incidentally our younger daughter is hoping to get a job in Paris after she leaves her present post in Bogota.She works for AFD-Agence Française de Développement.

A career with the riot police would be a great choice. I love those armoured vehicles with the EU flag on them being driven at the locals. Let’s be honest who wouldn’t want a go with that water cannon

 

[Ricky Otto]

Plenty of work in Paris. Having a go


Wher will they go when the EU implodes...London of course.

Does any think the working classes in the EU are going to suffer another 10 tears like the last.

This is why I find it hard debating with you Rigsby, you present opinion as fact. I think the chances of the EU imploding is tiny.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Actually Dublin is coming out as one of the preferred places for relocation of the financial sector, above Paris.

https://www.ey.com/uk/en/newsroom/n...in-europe-as-prospect-of-no-deal-brexit-grows

For investment banks according to the article you cite.I did mention Frankfurt (rather than Paris) which was cited as the leader by a recent FT article.I see Frankfurt is mentioned in second place even in the article which you link to.

 

[rigsby]

This is why I find it hard debating with you Rigsby, you present opinion as fact. I think the chances of the EU imploding is tiny.

In France 85% of the people support the action of the "Yellow vests"

Macron still wants his EU army. They also want an EU coast guard of 10,000 people, whys that I asked myself. Turns out they want to change the rules of refugee status. Anyone who migrates for any reason should be accepted.....That means a decent and free ferry service will be much needed.

Brussels has become like Hitlers bunker in 1945....Even the people who know why the EU is on its death bed are to scared to speak up.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

In France 85% of the people support the action of the "Yellow vests"

Macron still wants his EU army. They also want an EU coast guard of 10,000 people, whys that I asked myself. Turns out they want to change the rules of refugee status. Anyone who migrates for any reason should be accepted.....That means a decent and free ferry service will be much needed.

Brussels has become like Hitlers bunker in 1945....Even the people who know why the EU is on its death bed are to scared to speak up.

Evidence please? I wouldn't contest around 70% but there again this is a rather simplistic approach. You need to delve further into the reasons why that number of people claim they support this group. I think you'll find that a large number are ideologically opposed to Macron's policies and would have felt that way long before the gilet jaune came into being. This requires an understanding of the french electoral system and is not really under discussion here. It does not neccesarily mean they support the groups aims but more the turmoil and pain they are causing to a President they despise...........with little concern for the damage it is doing to the country.
More importantly today, apart from the ruling of th ECJ, is May's decision to pull out of tomorrow's vote. Where the hell does that leave us? I suppose we'll find out around 3h30 GMT.

 

[rigsby]

Evidence please? I wouldn't contest around 70% but there again this is a rather simplistic approach. You need to delve further into the reasons why that number of people claim they support this group. I think you'll find that a large number are ideologically opposed to Macron's policies and would have felt that way long before the gilet jaune came into being. This requires an understanding of the french electoral system and is not really under discussion here. It does not neccesarily mean they support the groups aims but more the turmoil and pain they are causing to a President they despise...........with little concern for the damage it is doing to the country.
More importantly today, apart from the ruling of th ECJ, is May's decision to pull out of tomorrow's vote. Where the hell does that leave us? I suppose we'll find out around 3h30 GMT.

I did spend a pleasant evening last night watching various news items, both MSM and independent. The evidence is there for all to see. They all say much higher than 70%. The endless cars honking. Firefighters and even police removing helmets to show support means Macron needs to be careful thinking he can unleash his police every weekend.

Interestingly some of the people who wanted a peaceful demo were now saying it was in fact the more aggressive thugs that have brought it to world attention. They said if it had just been them the water cannon would have dispersed them in 20 minutes and the whole thing would have been forgotten.

As for damage to the country Just type in the words Alistair Campbell and you can see his London elite arrogance trying to silence a female journalist on news night. The town of Mansfield is used as an example in the debate. You could twin any northern Town with the yellow vests...….They are way passed the point of caring one little bit what happens to their self serving Capital. its no good telling someone on £1,000/1200 per month that we need the EU for our economy. Lets hope they march on London when Brexit is cancelled because the loss of money is the only thing that has any effect in the modern political era. Paris needed 90,000 police to stop 160,000 protesters. London with its cut backs only has about 28,000 plod in total. Some of them have to follow know muslim terrorists on the watch list. In teams of 27 at accost of £2,5m per year per person on the list.

The future is bright the future is yellow.

 

[rigsby]

This is why I find it hard debating with you Rigsby, you present opinion as fact. I think the chances of the EU imploding is tiny.

Is that a fact?

Lets not forget some people wouldn't take to the life boats on the Titanic.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46509288

Back on topic.Brexit vote to be postponed.More chaos.The pound has fallen to its lowest value against the dollar and Euro in 18 months.This government is in office but not in power.