Brexit negotiations thread

[Ricky Otto]

Is that a fact?

Lets not forget some people wouldn't take to the life boats on the Titanic.

You have highlighted "you present opinion as fact" and have asked if that is a fact? Am I correct? Because you quite clearly just used the wording "when the EU implodes" which you don't know for a fact will happen.

 

[rigsby]

You have highlighted "you present opinion as fact" and have asked if that is a fact? Am I correct? Because you quite clearly just used the wording "when the EU implodes" which you don't know for a fact will happen.

It’s a bit like Scotland in a World Cup. Although it has happened yet, you absolutely know they will be going home early.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

I did spend a pleasant evening last night watching various news items, both MSM and independent. The evidence is there for all to see. They all say much higher than 70%. The endless cars honking. Firefighters and even police removing helmets to show support means Macron needs to be careful thinking he can unleash his police every weekend.

Interestingly some of the people who wanted a peaceful demo were now saying it was in fact the more aggressive thugs that have brought it to world attention. They said if it had just been them the water cannon would have dispersed them in 20 minutes and the whole thing would have been forgotten.

As for damage to the country Just type in the words Alistair Campbell and you can see his London elite arrogance trying to silence a female journalist on news night. The town of Mansfield is used as an example in the debate. You could twin any northern Town with the yellow vests...….They are way passed the point of caring one little bit what happens to their self serving Capital. its no good telling someone on £1,000/1200 per month that we need the EU for our economy. Lets hope they march on London when Brexit is cancelled because the loss of money is the only thing that has any effect in the modern political era. Paris needed 90,000 police to stop 160,000 protesters. London with its cut backs only has about 28,000 plod in total. Some of them have to follow know muslim terrorists on the watch list. In teams of 27 at accost of £2,5m per year per person on the list.

The future is bright the future is yellow.

Thank you for that precision..........accurate as usual! "They all say" who says 'they all say?' YOU say "they all say!" Not fact.............your opinion. I do agree that there are serious and unaddressed problems concerning austerity and deep inequalities amongst the populations on both sides of the Channel. The gilet jaune and Brexit are both symptomatic of those problems and divisions. I very much doubt whether they will be cured, either by cutting fuel duties or by Brexit.

 

[Ricky Otto]

It’s a bit like Scotland in a World Cup. Although it has happened yet, you absolutely know they wii be going home early.

Again that is your opinion, I would have thought if you had 2 polls. One that asks if the EU would still be around in 50 yrs time? and one that asks if Scotland would make it past the group stage in the next world cup? You would find a heavy majority would vote that the EU would still be here and Scotland would not make the 2nd round of the world cup. So I don't see that as a credible comparison at all. Just my opinion but one I think most would agree on.

 

[rigsby]

Thank you for that precision..........accurate as usual! "They all say" who says 'they all say?' YOU say "they all say!" Not fact.............your opinion. I do agree that there are serious and unaddressed problems concerning austerity and deep inequalities amongst the populations on both sides of the Channel. The gilet jaune and Brexit are both symptomatic of those problems and divisions. I very much doubt whether they will be cured, either by cutting fuel duties or by Brexit.

Yes all the experts including the ones on the zone and all the polls said I was wrong and that remain would win comfortably...….That is a fact.

I didn't just invent the 85% figure its what others in France have said. Sorry that doesn't suit your opinion but people chose to ignore clear evidence of Europe's future back in the 1930's. Others got it spot on. They even stuck to their guns despite being mocked by those around them.

 

[Ricky Otto]

Yes all the experts including the ones on the zone and all the polls said I was wrong and that remain would win comfortably...….That is a fact.

I didn't just invent the 85% figure its what others in France have said. Sorry that doesn't suit your opinion but people chose to ignore clear evidence of Europe's future back in the 1930's. Others got it spot on. They even stuck to their guns despite being mocked by those around them.

Yes that is a fact, a lot of people got it very wrong! I'd say that is a very good reason not to state things as fact before the result is known.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Yes all the experts including the ones on the zone and all the polls said I was wrong and that remain would win comfortably...….That is a fact.

I didn't just invent the 85% figure its what others in France have said. Sorry that doesn't suit your opinion but people chose to ignore clear evidence of Europe's future back in the 1930's. Others got it spot on. They even stuck to their guns despite being mocked by those around them.

Thank you again for your source, which I understand is "others in France have said." I appreciate you keeping such a close regard to the pulse of french public opinion. I never denied or ignored the considerable number of people who, for whatever reason, back the actions of the 'gilet jaunes, I just wanted to know where you got your precise percentage from. As regards to both these phenomena being a symptom of the ills in both our respective societies..............I'm still waiting for a reply.

 

[rigsby]

Yes that is a fact, a lot of people got it very wrong! I'd say that is a very good reason not to state things as fact before the result is known.

Whats the point of arguing over a word I never used. If you like, in my opinion the EU is destined to fail or implode. My opinion is just as strong as those that think Brexit will be a 100% (as quoted recently) failure (not sure how you quantify a 100% failure)

The main financial reason being as a business plan it cannot possibly be a success unless you are a bank who thrive off of debt.....many of its members have debt they cant possible service.

The social ideal of we are one big rainbow was never going to work. It has failed miserably even in left wing countries like Sweden and Denmark. Its actually the young people who have the highest unemployment and many will never own a house or have the basic human rights their parents and grandparents all enjoyed, whilst we suffer the current nonsense.

The only reason it has survived this long is because the its been easy to not only corrupt and bribe so many in Brussels, they have never been policed.

Of course those that profit from any system don't want to risk their scam and they have convinced some of the have nots to back them in a classic case of "Stockholm syndrome" but you cant fool all of the people all of the time. In fact more people all over Europe are rejecting the EU ideal and for very sound reasons.

Your MP knows this but we don't have enough politicians who can admit the truth because it might just spoil their own cushy pay day....Which leaves us with no option other than no deal because to reattach ourselves to the sinking ship really would be a disastrous decision. One that we would regret for years.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46515743

This will end in tears (and not a lot more than that).

 

[rigsby]

Mean while in the real world we have a record amount of people in work and wages are increasing at their highest rate for 10 years.

www.bbc.uk/news/business-46520876

Seems we jumped off a cliff and have started to float upwards.....Who would have thought that.

Before you say we haven't really left yet. On the morning of the 24/6/2016 there were remain politicians claiming that within weeks food and petrol would increase by 20% and we would be losing 3m jobs within a few years.

 

[Ricky Otto]

Latest Brexit Odds from skybet:

New Market- HOC 2018 Brexit Vote:-

To Pass 10/1

Not to Pass 1/33

Now I think those sort odds tell us that the PMs deal is very unlikely to go through..

To leave by 29th March:-

No 4/6

Yes 11/10

For the 1st time since the referendum the bookies have this in favour of not leaving by the "cut off date".

Another EU Referendum before 2020:-

No 8/11

Yes 1/1

When will May be replaced as PM:-

2018 2/1
2019 8/11
2020 8/1
2021 16/1
2022 or later 9/2

Looks like the bookies have her surviving the year but that's about it.

Worryingly IMO the next PM favourites are:

Corbyn 4/1
Boris 5/1

 

[MK Shrimper]

This could be the end of the traditional parties. There is a fertile ground for a centre-left pro-remain party to be created from the remains of battling Labour & Tory parties boosted by the Lib Dems and Greens. Anything seems possible in these crazy times.

 

[Ricky Otto]

This could be the end of the traditional parties. There is a fertile ground for a centre-left pro-remain party to be created from the remains of battling Labour & Tory parties boosted by the Lib Dems and Greens. Anything seems possible in these crazy times.

That is something I'd quite like to see.

On the flip side of the coin I think there is also very fertile ground for a new party to rise from the ashes of UKIP now their figurehead has abandoned them.

Interestingly "Any other party" has favouritism with the bookies over Lib Dems, UKIP and Greens for next election:-

Most Seats

Conservative 10/11
Labour 11/10
Any other party 20/1
Lib Dem 100/1
UKIP 150/1
Green 250/1

 

[GBJ]

This could be the end of the traditional parties. There is a fertile ground for a centre-left pro-remain party to be created from the remains of battling Labour & Tory parties boosted by the Lib Dems and Greens. Anything seems possible in these crazy times.

As I mentioned the other day, the possibility is also there for a ‘between-centre-and-extreme-right’ party to emerge, headed up by Farage.

Would be interesting to see the two square off.

 

[Napster]

This could be the end of the traditional parties. There is a fertile ground for a centre-left pro-remain party to be created from the remains of battling Labour & Tory parties boosted by the Lib Dems and Greens. Anything seems possible in these crazy times.

almost like a "new" Labour

 

[MK Shrimper]

almost like a "new" Labour

A new "new" Labour?

 

[rigsby]

almost like a "new" Labour

Not quite, the old "new" Labour were centre right.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

This could be the end of the traditional parties. There is a fertile ground for a centre-left pro-remain party to be created from the remains of battling Labour & Tory parties boosted by the Lib Dems and Greens. Anything seems possible in these crazy times.

I understand the thinking behind this but personally I think it will either not happen or will fail. Greens have 1 MP (in some ways they are more left wing than Labour and probably won't want to lose their independence) LibDems have 12? and are on 8% of the vote. Not a good start point.
The only Labour MPs who are likely to be tempted are those up for deselection as they have little to lose. If you look at the reasons why they are up for deselection they become a less attractive option for a new party who want a fresh outlook. And a few of them are Leavers.

LibDems shifting over will still be tarnished by 2010-2015 and many of us over 40 will remember that SDP did a similar thing and just split the centre vote. Where LibDems have MPs they usually have the Councils too and are well established - it would take a lot to tempt them away from that safety net.

2 party system is not particularly good for politics but I can't see that changing much personally.

 

[Napster]

Not quite, the old "new" Labour were centre right.

ah but that's the old new Labour. we need a new new Labour.

 

[GBJ]

ah but that's the old new Labour. we need a new new Labour.

Old labour and new labour is just a human concept...

Sorry, wrong thread