Brexit negotiations thread

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Keir Starmer, has been told by speaker John Bercow that the government’s decision to defy the binding Commons vote on publishing full legal advice on Brexit, could mean they are in contempt of parliament. Bercow has said if the complaint is issued to him in writing he will proceed with the complaint straight away.

DUP's Nigel Dodds has agreed with Kier Starmer's complaint. This latest attempt to withhold information from Parliament creates deeper divisions and more MPs digging in to vote against the deal.

 

[Member]

can anyone explain why a second referendum would be undemocratic? I hear/read it all the time but don't understand the logic behind it.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Analyses of the future are called forecasts

But the Bank of England's analysis of the impact of no deal on the UK economy was a short-term, 5 year economic forecast. It might have been a worst case scenario but it modelled the most likely immediate consequences of a no deal Brexit.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46377309

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

can anyone explain why a second referendum would be undemocratic? I hear/read it all the time but don't understand the logic behind it.

FYI,the second referendum was in 2016.The first was in 1975.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

If only that was the correct quote.

"The phrase has become a snowclone (ie a cliche) repeated often in American political culture, usually starting with the word "it's" and with commentators sometimes using a different word in place of "economy." Examples include "It's the deficit, stupid!"[4] "It's the corporation, stupid!"[5] "It's the math, stupid!"[6] and "It's the voters, stupid!"

 

[Gt Yarmouth Shrimper]

"The phrase has become a snowclone (ie a cliche) repeated often in American political culture, usually starting with the word "it's" and with commentators sometimes using a different word in place of "economy." Examples include "It's the deficit, stupid!"[4] "It's the corporation, stupid!"[5] "It's the math, stupid!"[6] and "It's the voters, stupid!"

Can I have that in English please?

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Can I have that in English please?

It's the economy,stupid. BTW,Linguistically speaking, AE or American English is just as valid a form of English as BE or British English.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

But the Bank of England's analysis of the impact of no deal on the UK economy was a short-term, 5 year economic forecast. It might have been a worst case scenario but it modelled the most likely immediate consequences of a no deal Brexit.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46377309

It’s a forecast. It’s a model. It’s got **** all chance of being accurate (have you checked how often the ONS - who are the experts and the real data on economic growth - have to revise not just their forecasts for the next three months but their actual (official) figures for the PAST three months?

And you want to believe a 5 year forecast from the bean counters? I bet you’d be dubious if they forecast we’d be quids in from Brexit.

 

[Swiss Tony]

It's the economy,stupid. BTW,Linguistically speaking, AE or American English is just as valid a form of English as BE or British English.

AE,BE plus BS in your ammo box very impressive

 

[mattitouk]

Andrea Leadsom backing the PM (the woman that she tried to over throw) speaks volumes for the Strength of the tory party.

Mark my words,.....Mrs May will comfortably see the next year out....Unless JC get's off his arse and the fence of which he has been sitting on for the past 2+ years, and makes a strong political decision.

Brexit will happen, and neither society will be the worse for wear. It will be business as usual....That's how business likes to work.


All being said, i know nothing, she will probably be sacked by the end of week!

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Andrea Leadsom backing the PM (the woman that she tried to over throw) speaks volumes for the Strength of the tory party.

Mark my words,.....Mrs May will comfortably see the next year out....Unless JC get's off his arse and the fence of which he has been sitting on for the past 2+ years, and makes a strong political decision.

Brexit will happen, and neither society will be the worse for wear. It will be business as usual....That's how business likes to work.


All being said, i know nothing, she will probably be sacked by the end of week!

I agree with the last bit but I think it will be mid December.

 

[dcblue]

But the Bank of England's analysis of the impact of no deal on the UK economy was a short-term, 5 year economic forecast. It might have been a worst case scenario but it modelled the most likely immediate consequences of a no deal Brexit.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46377309

So the worst case scenario is the most likely. I would suggest only to the most ardent remainer. Apparently the last boss of the B of E doesn't agree with this outcome.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

So the worst case scenario is the most likely. I would suggest only to the most ardent remainer. Apparently the last boss of the B of E doesn't agree with this outcome.

As Mark Carney said:-“Our job(at the Bank of England) is not to hope for the best but to prepare for the worst,”

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

It’s a forecast. It’s a model. It’s got **** all chance of being accurate (have you checked how often the ONS - who are the experts and the real data on economic growth - have to revise not just their forecasts for the next three months but their actual (official) figures for the PAST three months?

And you want to believe a 5 year forecast from the bean counters? I bet you’d be dubious if they forecast we’d be quids in from Brexit.

Advocates of Mrs May's deal have suggested that is is the plan least likely to have a negative effect on growth in the UK after Brexit.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Andrea Leadsom letter to constituents confirming she’s backing PM’s deal: “I intend to support the meaningful vote.... I have been assured I will have a central role in deciding the future relationship”

Bribed by Mrs May then.

 

[dcblue]

As Mark Carney said:-“Our job(at the Bank of England) is not to hope for the best but to prepare for the worst,”

That would be ok but as he doesn't give any other prediction these figures are used by the politicians and media to advance their goal of stopping brexit. They may mention it's a worst case but only as a side note. The headlines will be doom and gloom if brexit goes ahead on wto terms. I call that scare mongering.
BTW all this preparing for the worst, brexit, storms etc, is why there is such negativity in the country. Why not try, expect the best and get some positivity going to get some enthusiasm and maybe even togetherness back in the country.

 

[MK Shrimper]

Why not try, expect the best and get some positivity going to get some enthusiasm and maybe even togetherness back in the country.

That can of worms has been well and truly opened by Cameron and these arguments will, irrelevant if Brexit happens or not, or what shape it takes, continue for a generation or more. The country is divided as never before and talk of a "civil uprising" if Brexit doesn't happen sort of doesn't fit the tone of your post.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

That would be ok but as he doesn't give any other prediction these figures are used by the politicians and media to advance their goal of stopping brexit. They may mention it's a worst case but only as a side note. The headlines will be doom and gloom if brexit goes ahead on wto terms. I call that scare mongering.
BTW all this preparing for the worst, brexit, storms etc, is why there is such negativity in the country. Why not try, expect the best and get some positivity going to get some enthusiasm and maybe even togetherness back in the country.

Not only in the UK.The British Consul is due to speak to expats here in SC on the post Brexit situation later today.Unfortunately,as I'm examining for the British Council later this pm,I'll probably have to miss his talk.

 

[THE SEVENTIES NORTH BANK]

It did make me laugh when the EU said they would back the deal. Of course they will. It's almost handed them everything. Theresa May must be a terrible negotiator. Her goal seems to be more to get a deal the EU would accept, rather than one that's good for us. This is why hardly anyone here likes this deal. Macron even said that Britain will remain in the custom union and without fishing rights, even mentioning he will try and obtain access to British waters for his own country's fishermen, and saying that all his fishermen will be protected. Absolute disgrace.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

A May/Corbyn TV debate then...........what on earth is the point of that?????

https://news.sky.com/story/may-vs-corbyn-tv-debate-on-brexit-confirmed-11566716

They are both leavers. It's just going to be trying to score political points off each other. A chance for each to claim they got, or would have got, a better deal. Irrelevant in the present circumstances.