Ukip

[dloman]

Mr Reckless, whose defection from the Tories to UKIP triggered the contest in Kent, said: "If UKIP can win here, we can win across the country." (As long as it is with sitting MPs who are merely changing which right wing party they represent).

the key to how well UKIP do at the general election could be how many Tory MPs they persuade it's the best way to preserve their salary and benefits.

Not as big a majority as possibly expected. I think this seat will more than likely turn blue at the general election, a very bad night for the Lib Dems once again and also for Labour with their vote halved in a seat they will need to gain if they are to win a majority in the GE.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Not as big a majority as possibly expected. I think this seat will more than likely turn blue at the general election, a very bad night for the Lib Dems once again and also for Labour with their vote halved in a seat they will need to gain if they are to win a majority in the GE.

Personally I'm not sure this reflects on the other parties very much as the media turned this into a battle between two parties and so everything else becomes the proverbial wasted vote.
Im not convinced it tells us too much about a UKIP vote either as under normal circumstances their vote would be made up of genuine supporters plus protest voters but in this situation they have a massive influx of people who are happy to keep their current MP. The Tories will have learned that if their MP defects they are very likely to lose the seat. I'm not sure we learn much more than that.

 

[dloman]

Personally I'm not sure this reflects on the other parties very much as the media turned this into a battle between two parties and so everything else becomes the proverbial wasted vote.
Im not convinced it tells us too much about a UKIP vote either as under normal circumstances their vote would be made up of genuine supporters plus protest voters but in this situation they have a massive influx of people who are happy to keep their current MP. The Tories will have learned that if their MP defects they are very likely to lose the seat. I'm not sure we learn much more than that.

I think you are missing the point as even by your own analogy this seat is a two horse race as you rightly stated that some voters were happy to keep their MP, my point is this is a seat Labour will have to win to gain a majority at the next election and in truth with only picking up 16% of the vote they have zero chance of doing especially as this was a Labour seat prior to the last election though theboundaries have changed this only equates to around 500 - 1000 votes.

In truth i now believe we have more a four party system Con, Lab, Ukip and Lib/Green, unfortunately the voting system used is really intended for a two party system and possibly needs to change because I don't think either of the main parties will poll much more 30% of the vote with Cons being attacked by UKIP and Labour possibly being wiped out in Scotland.If i was a betting man I would say at this juncture the Conservatives will probably try and form the next government due to winning the most seats but how either of the main parties, whoever wins achieves this only time will tell.

It's going to be a very rocky period for whoever is in charge i believe.

 

[Sandbach Shrimper]

No wonder that UKIP won after Emily Thornberry demonstrated Labour's contempt for the white working-class people it's supposed to represent.

Still, it remains to be seen how much further UKIP can go. It's one thing winning by-elections through defections, it's another winning seats at a GE with your own candidates.

 

[callan]

No wonder that UKIP won after Emily Thornberry demonstrated Labour's contempt for the white working-class people it's supposed to represent.

Still, it remains to be seen how much further UKIP can go. It's one thing winning by-elections through defections, it's another winning seats at a GE with your own candidates.

Spectacular own goal from Labour there, not quite up there with Browns Bigot comments...but loathsome all the same.

 

[mrsblue]

No wonder that UKIP won after Emily Thornberry demonstrated Labour's contempt for the white working-class people it's supposed to represent.

Still, it remains to be seen how much further UKIP can go. It's one thing winning by-elections through defections, it's another winning seats at a GE with your own candidates.

Poor old Em speaking from her 3 million quid house then riding off on her bike without a helmet!

Remember we are all in it together.:hilarious:

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

No wonder that UKIP won after Emily Thornberry demonstrated Labour's contempt for the white working-class people it's supposed to represent.

Still, it remains to be seen how much further UKIP can go. It's one thing winning by-elections through defections, it's another winning seats at a GE with your own candidates.

It was stupid and she showed it doesn't represent the party by resigning straight away. At least that is better than those that hang on and on and eventually go. No excuses about being tired etc, messed up - resigned.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

I think you are missing the point as even by your own analogy this seat is a two horse race as you rightly stated that some voters were happy to keep their MP, my point is this is a seat Labour will have to win to gain a majority at the next election and in truth with only picking up 16% of the vote they have zero chance of doing especially as this was a Labour seat prior to the last election though theboundaries have changed this only equates to around 500 - 1000 votes.

In truth i now believe we have more a four party system Con, Lab, Ukip and Lib/Green, unfortunately the voting system used is really intended for a two party system and possibly needs to change because I don't think either of the main parties will poll much more 30% of the vote with Cons being attacked by UKIP and Labour possibly being wiped out in Scotland.If i was a betting man I would say at this juncture the Conservatives will probably try and form the next government due to winning the most seats but how either of the main parties, whoever wins achieves this only time will tell.

It's going to be a very rocky period for whoever is in charge i believe.

Agree with most of what you say but this was not high on Labour's hit list and the defection changes everything - these 'same MP different party' elections distort things.

 

[callan]

Agree with most of what you say but this was not high on Labour's hit list and the defection changes everything - these 'same MP different party' elections distort things.

Surely it should of been on Labours hit list, if they are to do anything in the G/E (it is likely they will lose ground in Scotland), then this is the sort of seat they should be targetting.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Mr Reckless, whose defection from the Tories to UKIP triggered the contest in Kent, said: "If UKIP can win here, we can win across the country." (As long as it is with sitting MPs who are merely changing which right wing party they represent).

the key to how well UKIP do at the general election could be how many Tory MPs they persuade it's the best way to preserve their salary and benefits.

Frankly,after last night's relatively narrow win I don't think there'll be any more Tory defections before the G/E.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Frankly,after last night's relatively narrow win I don't think there'll be any more Tory defections before the G/E.

Yes, I think a lot of them will sit tight now. Fair play to UKIP for getting MP no. 2, but that wasn't quite as big a win as they'd have hoped for.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Surely it should of been on Labours hit list, if they are to do anything in the G/E (it is likely they will lose ground in Scotland), then this is the sort of seat they should be targetting.

It's not on Labour's rather ambitous 106 target seats.That's because it's a "landslide" seat as in 1997.

Arguably, on the new boundaries Blair would have lost it in 2005.

 

[dloman]

Frankly,after last night's relatively narrow win I don't think there'll be any more Tory defections before the G/E.

I'm going to agree with agree with Barna...Nurse, Nurse!

Ukip really won't be gloating over this result as they would have expected with an incumbent MP and momentum to have won this a lot more comfortanly. Hence why i think this seat will turn back to blue in the GE.

 

[callan]

It's not on Labour's rather ambitous 106 target seats.That's because it's a "landslide" seat as in 1997.

Arguably, on the new boundaries Blair would have lost it in 2005.

My understanding is that in his first day of office the first thing Gordon Brown did was head of to this constituency as it was a must win seat for labour.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

My understanding is that in his first day of office the first thing Gordon Brown did was head of to this constituency as it was a must win seat for labour.

Yes, I saw that on the Daily Politics too.:tease:

 

[Neil_F]

No wonder that UKIP won after Emily Thornberry demonstrated Labour's contempt for the white working-class people it's supposed to represent.

Still, it remains to be seen how much further UKIP can go. It's one thing winning by-elections through defections, it's another winning seats at a GE with your own candidates.

Am I the only one to think it is a disgrace there was a West Ham flag? Surely he should be a Gillingham fan?

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Am I the only one to think it is a disgrace there was a West Ham flag? Surely he should be a Gillingham fan?

The guy was a Tory apparently -so what can you expect?

(Ps Welcome back Neil.I (for one) have missed your cogent (but wrong-headed) economic analyses.:winking:

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Nigel Farage is not pleased that his 'sit in a corner remarks have been widely reported.

'Farage later tried to clarify his remarks blaming the media for misinterpreting him. 'I personally have no problem with mothers breastfeeding wherever they want'. However he repeated his views that a public establishment 'perhaps might want to ask women to sit in a corner'.

So media misinterpretation is literally just reporting his words. I think the concept of playing the UKIP media card has just been invented.

 

[Benfleet A1]

Nigel Farage is not pleased that his 'sit in a corner remarks have been widely reported.

'Farage later tried to clarify his remarks blaming the media for misinterpreting him. 'I personally have no problem with mothers breastfeeding wherever they want'. However he repeated his views that a public establishment 'perhaps might want to ask women to sit in a corner'.

So media misinterpretation is literally just reporting his words. I think the concept of playing the UKIP media card has just been invented.

Oh please, did you actually hear what he said? LBC were debating what he said for most of the night and almost everyone [including the crackpots and obvious plants] were in agreement that he didn't say anything out of place. Talk about a slow news day. And it was a total misinterpretation of what he said which seems to be becoming the norm within the media for almost every high profile person involved in politics.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Oh please, did you actually hear what he said? LBC were debating what he said for most of the night and almost everyone [including the crackpots and obvious plants] were in agreement that he didn't say anything out of place. Talk about a slow news day. And it was a total misinterpretation of what he said which seems to be becoming the norm within the media for almost every high profile person involved in politics.

He said 'perhaps might want to ask women to sit in a corner' when he was asked to clarify saying that originally. I don't see how that as a direct quote can be misinterpretation - it seems he blames the media for whatever comes out of his own mouth. Vey convenient but not very convincing.