that will be the Brazil that is in its deepest recession in recent history.
ps this was in the FT yesterday...
Everything in Brazil is big. It is sometimes said the country suffers from a complex of grandeza or greatness. Lately, though, Brazil has been big in all the wrong ways. The country is facing its biggest recession. It is engulfed by its biggest corruption scandal. It has the world’s most indebted oil company, Petrobras. This week, it witnessed its biggest-ever corporate bankruptcy, after Oi, a telecoms company, filed for “judicial recuperation”, the Brazilian equivalent of Chapter 11 protection.
Oi’s bankruptcy has put the spotlight on Brazil’s broader debt problems. In general terms, there are two distinct pools of debt. The first is corporate debt. Some of this is now turning sour following the usual cycle of over-optimism, inflated asset prices and cheap debt going into reverse. Much of this debt is also denominated in foreign currency, following a borrowing spree that has now returned to haunt Brazilian corporates given the depreciation of the real, the national currency. That is largely the story of Oi, which has around two-thirds of its R$65bn ($20bn) of debt in foreign currency.
Then there is public debt. This is very big in domestic terms. At 68 per cent of gross domestic output, it is also growing fast due to a steep fall in tax revenues and punishing local interest rates, which are among the highest in the world. (The central bank’s benchmark rate is 14.25 per cent, versus 9 per cent inflation).
Such dynamics explain why Brasília bailed out of the state of Rio de Janeiro this month. However, the public debt situation is not entirely grim, as foreign-currency debt is actually very small. Overseas sovereign debt is no more than about $40bn. On that narrow metric, Brazil does not deserve its junk status.
One of the key channels joining these two pools of debt is Petrobras, which has $104bn of borrowing, much of it in foreign currency. Arguably, it is this massive debt pile that has turned state-controlled Petrobras into a thick, long corporate tail now wagging the sovereign debt dog.
The company enjoys implicit state backing. So the financial uncertainty that surrounds the oil company, combined with the lava jato corruption scandal, is keeping sovereign spreads higher than they otherwise need be. This in turn feeds into a higher cost of capital for Brazil, and thus higher interest rates, none of which helps either Brazilian companies or national debt dynamics. To break the vicious circle, Petrobras needs to raise fresh funds.