The EU Referendum

[RHB]

So was leaving the EU 24 hours ago.

German car manufacturers have already announced this morning they want to get a trade deal completed ASAP. The Germans know a thing or two about how to do business. Do you really think they want to risk the sale of nearly 1 million cars a year in Briton.

Project fear will now be shown up for what it always was, a great lie sold by lazy politicians to some gullible people.

You seem so very certain how all of this will play out Rigsby. I wish I had your confidence.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Is that Juan or Eva?

Clunky laptop keyboard.:smiles:

 

[rigsby]

On Yogi's side of the Pyreenes in France.Today is a public holiday in Catalonia-Sant Joan.

When I went to bed at 11.30pm (here) the BBC you quoting a YouGov survey giving Remain a 52% lead.:omg:

To be honest I thought the London remain vote would cancel out the Essex type vote. Just recently I spoke to some Nothern Firefighters I know as we get the vibe first hand, fitting smoke detectors in local houses etc. I was surprised what I was hearing and certainly not what the 'experts' were saying.

So I decided to stay up, just for a bit. Then the Sunderland result came in and from then on it was top viewing. If you get the chance watch the Keith Vaz interview as the reality hits home....:hilarious::hilarious::hilarious:

 

[Benfleet A1]

Will the last peron to lave the UK please turn out the lights.

Been down the bank yet?

 

[MK Shrimper]

Will the last person to lave the UK please turn out the lights.

Won't be one in a few years. You'll need a passport to visit Belfast & Edinburgh.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Been down the bank yet?

Ha!Fortunately I've got very little in my UK account.I have advised my wife,however, to take our ex-bank manager's advice and sell her Spanish shares next week and buy British blue chips.I'm sure she'll make a killing.:winking:

 

[rigsby]

You seem so very certain how all of this will play out Rigsby. I wish I had your confidence.

British confidence is the reason we have a free Europe, indeed a free world. We were the first to create Global trade, the East India company was the biggest there has ever been in History and was run by just 200 people behind a desk.

We will continue to trade with the EU as normal. Plus we have now opened up the future which are the emerging global economies. I am already planning my South American tour this winter with some friends who will be joining me at various points. It will include business, pleasure and football.

For any young person I say forget 'media studies' learn some Spanish and Brazilian Portuguese then head to Brazil. Its the continent for this century, with lots of opportunities and the best place if you like to live with a smile on your face.

 

[Napster]

British confidence is the reason we have a free Europe, indeed a free world. We were the first to create Global trade, the East India company was the biggest there has ever been in History and was run by just 200 people behind a desk.

We will continue to trade with the EU as normal. Plus we have now opened up the future which are the emerging global economies. I am already planning my South American tour this winter with some friends who will be joining me at various points. It will include business, pleasure and football.

For any young person I say forget 'media studies' learn some Spanish and Brazilian Portuguese then head to Brazil. Its the continent for this century, with lots of opportunities and the best place if you like to live with a smile on your face.

that will be the Brazil that is in its deepest recession in recent history.

ps this was in the FT yesterday...

Everything in Brazil is big. It is sometimes said the country suffers from a complex of grandeza or greatness. Lately, though, Brazil has been big in all the wrong ways. The country is facing its biggest recession. It is engulfed by its biggest corruption scandal. It has the world’s most indebted oil company, Petrobras. This week, it witnessed its biggest-ever corporate bankruptcy, after Oi, a telecoms company, filed for “judicial recuperation”, the Brazilian equivalent of Chapter 11 protection.

Oi’s bankruptcy has put the spotlight on Brazil’s broader debt problems. In general terms, there are two distinct pools of debt. The first is corporate debt. Some of this is now turning sour following the usual cycle of over-optimism, inflated asset prices and cheap debt going into reverse. Much of this debt is also denominated in foreign currency, following a borrowing spree that has now returned to haunt Brazilian corporates given the depreciation of the real, the national currency. That is largely the story of Oi, which has around two-thirds of its R$65bn ($20bn) of debt in foreign currency.

Then there is public debt. This is very big in domestic terms. At 68 per cent of gross domestic output, it is also growing fast due to a steep fall in tax revenues and punishing local interest rates, which are among the highest in the world. (The central bank’s benchmark rate is 14.25 per cent, versus 9 per cent inflation).

Such dynamics explain why Brasília bailed out of the state of Rio de Janeiro this month. However, the public debt situation is not entirely grim, as foreign-currency debt is actually very small. Overseas sovereign debt is no more than about $40bn. On that narrow metric, Brazil does not deserve its junk status.

One of the key channels joining these two pools of debt is Petrobras, which has $104bn of borrowing, much of it in foreign currency. Arguably, it is this massive debt pile that has turned state-controlled Petrobras into a thick, long corporate tail now wagging the sovereign debt dog.
The company enjoys implicit state backing. So the financial uncertainty that surrounds the oil company, combined with the lava jato corruption scandal, is keeping sovereign spreads higher than they otherwise need be. This in turn feeds into a higher cost of capital for Brazil, and thus higher interest rates, none of which helps either Brazilian companies or national debt dynamics. To break the vicious circle, Petrobras needs to raise fresh funds.

 

[steveo]

Don't worry, we get to kick out Polish cleaners.

and English people wont work for that money so everyone has to pay more for Labour which means prices have to increase to balance the fall in margins. cleaning prices and all labour prices go up so who ends up paying for it? That would be us then.

Any everyone who voted leave due to the immigrant situation should watch out as there will be a new influx of people trying to get here before the borders close. We don't currently have a Prime minister so that probably wont happen very soon.

And this money that the Leave campaign say will now go into the NHS. What's it got to do with them? As far as I am aware they aren't an elected party and as such have no control over what money goes where.

 

[superblue24]

Corduroys goose appears to be cooked, regardless of ***'s assertions and support

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36621777

 

[rigsby]

that will be the Brazil that is in its deepest recession in recent history.

ps this was in the FT yesterday...

Everything in Brazil is big. It is sometimes said the country suffers from a complex of grandeza or greatness. Lately, though, Brazil has been big in all the wrong ways. The country is facing its biggest recession. It is engulfed by its biggest corruption scandal. It has the world’s most indebted oil company, Petrobras. This week, it witnessed its biggest-ever corporate bankruptcy, after Oi, a telecoms company, filed for “judicial recuperation”, the Brazilian equivalent of Chapter 11 protection.

Oi’s bankruptcy has put the spotlight on Brazil’s broader debt problems. In general terms, there are two distinct pools of debt. The first is corporate debt. Some of this is now turning sour following the usual cycle of over-optimism, inflated asset prices and cheap debt going into reverse. Much of this debt is also denominated in foreign currency, following a borrowing spree that has now returned to haunt Brazilian corporates given the depreciation of the real, the national currency. That is largely the story of Oi, which has around two-thirds of its R$65bn ($20bn) of debt in foreign currency.

Then there is public debt. This is very big in domestic terms. At 68 per cent of gross domestic output, it is also growing fast due to a steep fall in tax revenues and punishing local interest rates, which are among the highest in the world. (The central bank’s benchmark rate is 14.25 per cent, versus 9 per cent inflation).

Such dynamics explain why Brasília bailed out of the state of Rio de Janeiro this month. However, the public debt situation is not entirely grim, as foreign-currency debt is actually very small. Overseas sovereign debt is no more than about $40bn. On that narrow metric, Brazil does not deserve its junk status.

One of the key channels joining these two pools of debt is Petrobras, which has $104bn of borrowing, much of it in foreign currency. Arguably, it is this massive debt pile that has turned state-controlled Petrobras into a thick, long corporate tail now wagging the sovereign debt dog.
The company enjoys implicit state backing. So the financial uncertainty that surrounds the oil company, combined with the lava jato corruption scandal, is keeping sovereign spreads higher than they otherwise need be. This in turn feeds into a higher cost of capital for Brazil, and thus higher interest rates, none of which helps either Brazilian companies or national debt dynamics. To break the vicious circle, Petrobras needs to raise fresh funds.

Sounds like a great time to go, I have been before and I will be going to Uruguay and Argentina.

Best to get in when their recession bottoms out, they have had a ridiculous boom in the last decade. Their economy is about the same size as ours. One of the people coming out there, bought up loads of flats in Southend in the 1990's. It might come as a surprise to some people but as late as 1998 you could by a flat for as little as £13,000 in Southend.

 

[EastStandBlue]

Ta-ra Jez.

 

[londonblue]

Corduroys goose appears to be cooked, regardless of ***'s assertions and support

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36621777

Every cloud and all that...

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Corduroys goose appears to be cooked, regardless of ***'s assertions and support

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36621777

Mods - is Rigsby allowed to run two accounts?

 

[rigsby]

Mods - is Rigsby allowed to run two accounts?

Good of you to face the music but today it might have been best to do an Izzard. His little pink beret slipped quietly out of the Remain party about 04:00 this morning and no one has heard from him since.

 

[mfurok]

Ha!Forunately I've got very little in my UK account.I have advised my wife,however, to take our ex-bank manager's advice and sell her Spanish shares next week and buy British blue chips.I'm sure she'll make a killing.:winking:

interesting.

Your investment advice must mean that you support the view that today's prices plummet is all about the banking wide boys gambling on the exchanges and that, actually, the fundamentals in the longer term will be fine under Brexit.

Well done 10/10.

 

[Napster]

Good of you to face the music but today it might have been best to do an Izzard. His little pink beret slipped quietly out of the Remain party about 04:00 this morning and no one has heard from him since.

Izzard has been wrong on every single election/referendum for the past god knows how many years.

 

[callan]

PM - would be an outrage if there is no GE. 4 years of a PM not chosen by the public feels very wrong.

The way they reported this on the news this morning is that the Tories would move for a GE as quickly as possible, as they see Corbyn as someone they can beat.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Good of you to face the music but today it might have been best to do an Izzard. His little pink beret slipped quietly out of the Remain party about 04:00 this morning and no one has heard from him since.

Up till 2.30am then up at 6am and at work since 9am so just dipping in but I don't hide just not writing reams.

Izzard is active in what he believes in - invests time and effort rather than being a non active face of a cause. You can knock his cause or his style but I'd suggest respect for his active involvement

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

The way they reported this on the news this morning is that the Tories would move for a GE as quickly as possible, as they see Corbyn as someone they can beat.

GE is the right thing to do IMO - Tories are half a party and need to reiterate their mandate.

And a mandate from Labour members is what Corbyn has which is problematic for Labour if he is not (yet) in a position to win a GE. I'd be much more comfortable if that is the conclusion that it came from him.