Hard or Soft Brexit?

[yogi bear up the cagire]

"We are clear that no deal is not what we want or expect, but that it would be better than a deal which sought to punish the UK."

When David Davis makes the above statement and the EU responds by saying we are not out to punish the UK, Brexit will be enough of a punishment, where does that leave us?
Perhaps it leaves us with an interpretation of the word 'punishment?' From the EU's point of view, I am sure they will finish by offering the UK a deal that is rather less good than the one they have at the moment (surely, no other eventuality is possible?), yet for this, the UK, within some small margin for negociation, will have to follow conditions and pay contributions to the EU. For the European side, this is not punishment, the UK would fall into the same category as Switzerland and Norway, who have to accept EU laws, despite not being members, in order to trade with it.
The big question surely is , how will Davis and the UK government interpret the word punishment. If for them it is being offered anything less than we have at the moment..........if that's what they mean by punishment...........then punishment it will certainly be. It will be a fascinating couple of years to see how this pans out, although I'd far rather view it as a dispassionate observer, than one wound up and effected by the outcome. There is also an important undercurrent to watch here, I would imagine there are duel aims for our present government. On the one hand they clearly want to get the best deal for the UK but equally important will be the desire to keep the Conservative Party together and in government.......I wonder which will be their main priority? :smile:

 

[callan]

"We are clear that no deal is not what we want or expect, but that it would be better than a deal which sought to punish the UK."

When David Davis makes the above statement and the EU responds by saying we are not out to punish the UK, Brexit will be enough of a punishment, where does that leave us?
Perhaps it leaves us with an interpretation of the word 'punishment?' From the EU's point of view, I am sure they will finish by offering the UK a deal that is rather less good than the one they have at the moment (surely, no other eventuality is possible?), yet for this, the UK, within some small margin for negociation, will have to follow conditions and pay contributions to the EU. For the European side, this is not punishment, the UK would fall into the same category as Switzerland and Norway, who have to accept EU laws, despite not being members, in order to trade with it.
The big question surely is , how will Davis and the UK government interpret the word punishment. If for them it is being offered anything less than we have at the moment..........if that's what they mean by punishment...........then punishment it will certainly be. It will be a fascinating couple of years to see how this pans out, although I'd far rather view it as a dispassionate observer, than one wound up and effected by the outcome. There is also an important undercurrent to watch here, I would imagine there are duel aims for our present government. On the one hand they clearly want to get the best deal for the UK but equally important will be the desire to keep the Conservative Party together and in government.......I wonder which will be their main priority? :smile:

If (and I'm repeating myself here) a good deal is to be paying more for something that delivers less which is our current arrangement with the EU it will be difficult to convince you that anything else is better.

The Uk has poured over quarter of a trillion Euros into the EU, yet trade with them has diminished year on year.

Conversely trade with the rest of the world has no membership cost and is increasing year on year.

Now compare the two....

In terms of punishment, this is a two way street...However my take is that those who are in for real punishment, will be the Greeks and other struggling Southern European economies, alongside the generation that the EU chose to sacrifice to continue it's political ambition of becoming an all powerful superstate.

You are choosing to view this through a very narrow prism.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

If (and I'm repeating myself here) a good deal is to be paying more for something that delivers less which is our current arrangement with the EU it will be difficult to convince you that anything else is better.

The Uk has poured over quarter of a trillion Euros into the EU, yet trade with them has diminished year on year.

Conversely trade with the rest of the world has no membership cost and is increasing year on year.

Now compare the two....

In terms of punishment, this is a two way street...However my take is that those who are in for real punishment, will be the Greeks and other struggling Southern European economies, alongside the generation that the EU chose to sacrifice to continue it's political ambition of becoming an all powerful superstate.

You are choosing to view this through a very narrow prism.

Hope you're not thinking of Spain here,which has a tendancy to punch above its weigh where the EU is concerned cf Gibraltar.:winking:

 

[callan]

Hope you're not thinking of Spain here,which has a tendancy to punch above its weigh where the EU is concerned cf Gibraltar.:winking:

I wasn't particularly thinking of Spain as I don't recognize them currently as a struggling economy.

FWIW I'm not sure why the UK are getting their knickers in a twist over Gibraltar.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

If (and I'm repeating myself here) a good deal is to be paying more for something that delivers less which is our current arrangement with the EU it will be difficult to convince you that anything else is better.

The Uk has poured over quarter of a trillion Euros into the EU, yet trade with them has diminished year on year.

Conversely trade with the rest of the world has no membership cost and is increasing year on year.

Now compare the two....

In terms of punishment, this is a two way street...However my take is that those who are in for real punishment, will be the Greeks and other struggling Southern European economies, alongside the generation that the EU chose to sacrifice to continue it's political ambition of becoming an all powerful superstate.

You are choosing to view this through a very narrow prism.

Sorry, perhaps I'm being rather naive regarding your position. You'll have to forgive me, I'm dealing with personal things at the moment, which renders this sterile debate as rather unimportant..........posting serves me as a kind of therapy. Anyway, from what I understand, you would be in favour of a very hard Brexit, cutting completely our trade agreements with Europe. If not, it would still appear to be where your position is leading us.

 

[callan]

Sorry, perhaps I'm being rather naive regarding your position. You'll have to forgive me, I'm dealing with personal things at the moment, which renders this sterile debate as rather unimportant..........posting serves me as a kind of therapy. Anyway, from what I understand, you would be in favour of a very hard Brexit, cutting completely our trade agreements with Europe. If not, it would still appear to be where your position is leading us.

Firstly hope your personal things sort themselves out, and if you find posting therapeutic...I would carry on, as it can be an excellent way of offloading.

I assume by hard brexit you mean, trading with the EU in the same manner we do the rest of the World who we do not have trading agreements in place for?

 

[onceknownasrab]

There will be pluses and minuses. Our deal with Europe is destined to be less advantageous than it is now but with the improved possibilities with the rest of the world it does not mean we will be worse off. The whole concept of the EU is a contradiction. We are told repeatedly that we have to rely on an agreement with 27 other countries. How many of those 27 countries are actually considered by the EU itself? The EU is wannabe superstate that has been created to look after the interests of a number of northern European countries at the expense of others. Spain, Italy and Greece are so much better off in the EU? No. As for the more easterly European members I can only see the need for cheap labour, by the European economic powers, as the reason they have been given membership.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Callan please tell me, this is not the brave new world of British trade?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...duterte-brexit-article-50-trade-a7667031.html

 

[Jim Levenstein]

God, isn't politics boring.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

God, isn't politics boring.

Why do you come on here then! :winking::smile:

 

[callan]

Callan please tell me, this is not the brave new world of British trade?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...duterte-brexit-article-50-trade-a7667031.html

I assume that as in terms of the article itself, you are looking at this as a moral issue, rather than trade itself?

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

I assume that as in terms of the article itself, you are looking at this as a moral issue, rather than trade itself?

Bloody right, I am! :smile:

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Which way would you like to look at it?

 

[callan]

Which way would you like to look at it?

Personal preference would be an EBA (everything but arms) agreement, recognising that they are already GSP plus (meaning they have preference with the EU already under the generalised scheme).

EFTA already have an FTA with them (The Phillipines) and the EU are negotiating with the framework in place.

Ask yourself this question....do you believe in the carrot or the stick?

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

One thing that hasn't been much talked about on here, (if at all), or elsewhere (much) for that matter, is the demographic aspect of Brexit.

There's no question that older people voted overwhelmingly in favour of Leave whereas the vast majority of younger people (especially in the 18-24 age group) supported Remain.Ironically of course it'll be the young who'll have to sort out the mess their parents left them.

It was ever thus.:cricko:

 

[superblue24]

One thing that hasn't been much talked about on here, (if at all), or elsewhere (much) for that matter, is the demographic aspect of Brexit.

There's no question that older people voted overwhelmingly in favour of Leave whereas the vast majority of younger people (especially in the 18-24 age group) supported Remain.Ironically of course it'll be the young who'll have to sort out the mess their parents left them.

It was ever thus.:cricko:

You're also failing to consider that those who voted so emphatically to Leave were the ONLYpeople in a position to compare life both IN and OUT of Europe. None of the demographic group you refer to were even born before we joined Europe, so how could they appreciate the difference?

 

[Supernaut]

There's no question that older people voted overwhelmingly in favour of Leave whereas the vast majority of younger people (especially in the 18-24 age group) supported Remain.Ironically of course it'll be the young who'll have to sort out the mess their parents left them.

Firstly, less than 50% of eligable 18-24 year olds could be bothered to vote.
Secondly, there isn't going to be any mess. On the contrary - they'll thanks us for it one day.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

You're also failing to consider that those who voted so emphatically to Leave were the ONLYpeople in a position to compare life both IN and OUT of Europe. None of the demographic group you refer to were even born before we joined Europe, so how could they appreciate the difference?

You'd have to be about my age now (ie 65) to have voted in both UK referendums on Europe.

Firstly, less than 50% of eligable 18-24 year olds could be bothered to vote.
Secondly, there isn't going to be any mess. On the contrary - they'll thanks us for it one day.

In answer to your first point,IIRC,of those who did vote in the 18-24 age group,the figures for Remain were about 70% in favour.As I presume you're fully aware, turnout is always significantly lower for younger rather than older voters.

As to your second point.Well we'll just have to wait and see,won't we?

 

[superblue24]

You'd have to be about my age now (ie 65) to have voted in both UK referendums on Europe.

And what proportion of such aged demographic voted to Leave?

 

[londonblue]

Firstly, less than 50% of eligable 18-24 year olds could be bothered to vote.
Secondly, there isn't going to be any mess. On the contrary - they'll thanks us for it one day.

IMO that's a poor argument because you could also say the same about the overall population that bothered to vote. If you actually look at the percentage of people that voted out, it was only 37.5% of the voting population, but (more importantly) just over 50% of the people that voted.

In my view you can't have it both ways. In both cases you have to only look at the actual people that did vote, and the younger population voted overwhelmingly to stay.