Hard or Soft Brexit?

[yogi bear up the cagire]

If I was Gibraltariens or Gibraltariennes, I'd start to be very worried!

http://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-vows-to-get-best-brexit-deal-for-gibraltar-10822205

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

hmm, reads more like an unhinged rant tempered by sour grapes.

forgive me if I take a pro remain, left wing newspaper article with a pinch of salt. I'm sure you'd do the same with the Telegraph. What is it they say about opinions and arseholes?

No, I think it reads as it is. This is not about sour grapes, it's about dientanglement form the EU. We've been told by many Brexiteer's how the UK will come to the negociating table with a strong hand and will fight for a good deal. The article simply states this is not the case. May & the UK won't lead the negociations and will be offered a deal, if they go well, which she can take or refuse.
I have simply stated that a hard Brexit is likely to be the only one which will please the hard line Brexiter's in her party and the hard line pro-Brexit press. Of course, this is my opinion, it is not sour grapes (we've got past that stage). In the end what is your hope for the forthcoming couple of years and what do you wish for and believe the result of the negociations will be?

 

[Bielzibubz]

No, I think it reads as it is. This is not about sour grapes, it's about dientanglement form the EU. We've been told by many Brexiteer's how the UK will come to the negociating table with a strong hand and will fight for a good deal. The article simply states this is not the case. May & the UK won't lead the negociations and will be offered a deal, if they go well, which she can take or refuse.
I have simply stated that a hard Brexit is likely to be the only one which will please the hard line Brexiter's in her party and the hard line pro-Brexit press. Of course, this is my opinion, it is not sour grapes (we've got past that stage). In the end what is your hope for the forthcoming couple of years and what do you wish for and believe the result of the negociations will be?

But the point is Yogi it's just the Guardian writing a story based on what their journalists believe and how they perceive things to be going on behind the scenes in Government. We and it are not privy to the ins and outs of these early posturing maneuvers between the UK and the EU. How can the paper state something as fact when it doesn't know how strong the UK's hand will be once proper negotiations start? It merely picks bits and pieces from press releases and statements from vested interested parties and then prints them in an opinionated form. Exactly like the Telegraph does but with a totally different end result. And that is what we, the punter either chooses to see as the truth or not.

I don't for one minute pretend to know how the negotiations will go. What I am pretty certain of is that the UK will fight tooth and nail to make this work and the EU will do all it can to save face and limit the damage a UK exit could cause. We have stuck two almighty big fingers up to the whole European Federal Superstate ideal and there are some mighty ****ed off European heads of state that want to punish us for our temerity but those very same ****ed off heads of state also know that they have to do what's right for their respective economies with regards to trade with and from the UK, just as we do. That last fact, I believe, will take precedent over any forms of chest beating, saber rattling and threats made on both sides.

I'm both cautious in the short term but overwhelmingly optimistic for the future.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

But the point is Yogi it's just the Guardian writing a story based on what their journalists believe and how they perceive things to be going on behind the scenes in Government. We and it are not privy to the ins and outs of these early posturing maneuvers between the UK and the EU. How can the paper state something as fact when it doesn't know how strong the UK's hand will be once proper negotiations start? It merely picks bits and pieces from press releases and statements from vested interested parties and then prints them in an opinionated form. Exactly like the Telegraph does but with a totally different end result. And that is what we, the punter either chooses to see as the truth or not.

I don't for one minute pretend to know how the negotiations will go. What I am pretty certain of is that the UK will fight tooth and nail to make this work and the EU will do all it can to save face and limit the damage a UK exit could cause. We have stuck two almighty big fingers up to the whole European Federal Superstate ideal and there are some mighty ****ed off European heads of state that want to punish us for our temerity but those very same ****ed off heads of state also know that they have to do what's right for their respective economies with regards to trade with and from the UK, just as we do. That last fact, I believe, will take precedent over any forms of chest beating, saber rattling and threats made on both sides.

I'm both cautious in the short term but overwhelmingly optimistic for the future.

OK, we'll see how it works out over the months to come. I would love to share your optimism but you will clearly understand that, sadly, I can't.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Honestly, is this kind of rhetoric, Howard comparing Gibralter to the Falklands, going to do anyone any good? :sad:

 

[geoffmundo]

But the point is Yogi it's just the Guardian writing a story based on what their journalists believe and how they perceive things to be going on behind the scenes in Government. We and it are not privy to the ins and outs of these early posturing maneuvers between the UK and the EU. How can the paper state something as fact when it doesn't know how strong the UK's hand will be once proper negotiations start? It merely picks bits and pieces from press releases and statements from vested interested parties and then prints them in an opinionated form. Exactly like the Telegraph does but with a totally different end result. And that is what we, the punter either chooses to see as the truth or not.

I don't for one minute pretend to know how the negotiations will go. What I am pretty certain of is that the UK will fight tooth and nail to make this work and the EU will do all it can to save face and limit the damage a UK exit could cause. We have stuck two almighty big fingers up to the whole European Federal Superstate ideal and there are some mighty ****ed off European heads of state that want to punish us for our temerity but those very same ****ed off heads of state also know that they have to do what's right for their respective economies with regards to trade with and from the UK, just as we do. That last fact, I believe, will take precedent over any forms of chest beating, saber rattling and threats made on both sides.

I'm both cautious in the short term but overwhelmingly optimistic for the future.

You are wrong.The EU (or the original founding members) will do all they can to ensure as a priority,that the EU stays together.That overrides individual business concerns (which they will play lip service for internal political reasons),however they cannot allow the UK to make a success of this.

What is unfortunate is that many countries were finding issue with the EU and were willing (and to a certain extent relying on) UK to support them - not just obvious countries like Greece, but also the likes of Portugal, but Brexit has galvanised resentment against the UK (we have burnt our bridges). We are ill equipped to deal with the efficient bureaucratic machine that is Brussels, as the 'Gibraltar' episode has highlighted. This will not be the last 'surprise', along the very long road but look out for concession after concession, in fact when all said and done the final 'deal' may look not that dissimilar to now. i.e. paying EU on annual basis for access to certain (key) markets, but with little influence and also accepting/needing freedom of movement (with strings) because we are unable to sustain either Public Services or major infrastructure projects without immigration.

 

[rigsby]

You are wrong.The EU (or the original founding members) will do all they can to ensure as a priority,that the EU stays together.That overrides individual business concerns (which they will play lip service for internal political reasons),however they cannot allow the UK to make a success of this.

What is unfortunate is that many countries were finding issue with the EU and were willing (and to a certain extent relying on) UK to support them - not just obvious countries like Greece, but also the likes of Portugal, but Brexit has galvanised resentment against the UK (we have burnt our bridges). We are ill equipped to deal with the efficient bureaucratic machine that is Brussels, as the 'Gibraltar' episode has highlighted. This will not be the last 'surprise', along the very long road but look out for concession after concession, in fact when all said and done the final 'deal' may look not that dissimilar to now. i.e. paying EU on annual basis for access to certain (key) markets, but with little influence and also accepting/needing freedom of movement (with strings) because we are unable to sustain either Public Services or major infrastructure projects without immigration.

Another one of the great remain myths.

 

[geoffmundo]

Another one of the great remain myths.

Not a myth.

We cannot do HS2, Heathrow expansion or Hinckley Point without migrant workers. Either individually or collectively. This is accepted fact.

I have several Business customers in the Property sector who rely on 90% employees from outside UK. You go on any major development in London and the majority of the work force will be non UK. Fact.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

You are wrong.The EU (or the original founding members) will do all they can to ensure as a priority,that the EU stays together.That overrides individual business concerns (which they will play lip service for internal political reasons),however they cannot allow the UK to make a success of this.

What is unfortunate is that many countries were finding issue with the EU and were willing (and to a certain extent relying on) UK to support them - not just obvious countries like Greece, but also the likes of Portugal, but Brexit has galvanised resentment against the UK (we have burnt our bridges). We are ill equipped to deal with the efficient bureaucratic machine that is Brussels, as the 'Gibraltar' episode has highlighted. This will not be the last 'surprise', along the very long road but look out for concession after concession, in fact when all said and done the final 'deal' may look not that dissimilar to now. i.e. paying EU on annual basis for access to certain (key) markets, but with little influence and also accepting/needing freedom of movement (with strings) because we are unable to sustain either Public Services or major infrastructure projects without immigration.

I generally agree with all you have said. We will probably be offered a soft Brexit with the obligation of paying without a say and complying to conditions. Surely the BIG problem will come when May tries to sell that to the right-wing of her party and to the hard Brexit press.........she can try and spin it as much as she likes but the likelihood of the Tory party splitting apart must be real.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

But the point is Yogi it's just the Guardian writing a story based on what their journalists believe and how they perceive things to be going on behind the scenes in Government. We and it are not privy to the ins and outs of these early posturing maneuvers between the UK and the EU. How can the paper state something as fact when it doesn't know how strong the UK's hand will be once proper negotiations start? It merely picks bits and pieces from press releases and statements from vested interested parties and then prints them in an opinionated form. Exactly like the Telegraph does but with a totally different end result. And that is what we, the punter either chooses to see as the truth or not.

I don't for one minute pretend to know how the negotiations will go. What I am pretty certain of is that the UK will fight tooth and nail to make this work and the EU will do all it can to save face and limit the damage a UK exit could cause. We have stuck two almighty big fingers up to the whole European Federal Superstate ideal and there are some mighty ****ed off European heads of state that want to punish us for our temerity but those very same ****ed off heads of state also know that they have to do what's right for their respective economies with regards to trade with and from the UK, just as we do. That last fact, I believe, will take precedent over any forms of chest beating, saber rattling and threats made on both sides.

I'm both cautious in the short term but overwhelmingly optimistic for the future.

Talking about The Torygraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ng-back-imperial-units/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

Nice photo of a Leigh-on -Sea butcher's.

As John Harris tweeted "Don't laugh it might happen."

 

[superblue24]

Keep it up! The EU will eventually melt in face of British determination. :smile: You've set sail in your boat 'UK Independence,' I would however check your hull, especially when going through the Straits of Gibralter. Honestly, it gives me no pleasure believing this and may in the future, cause me extreme pain. I wish the UK luck in negociations but find difficulty in seeing how they will manage to square the circle.

Yet every single post you write seems to have a gleeful tone of "I didn't get what I wanted, now I want to see the UK burn from the safety of France"

At the end of the day, we joined a Union, the British people decided it wasn't for us and have decided to reverse the original decision to join. How else are we (or any other country) supposed to leave? How many would have even voted to join the EU back in the early 80s if it was an irreversible decision or that all this so-called "bad blood" would emanate just because we gave notice of wanting to leave? I'm thinking not as many.

We've given our notice, why should it be an issue for the EU? If anything, I would be even more concerned that the EU are taking this kind of stance and indicates that it is becoming more like some kind of sect, or even (dare I say it) a dictatorship. Hopefully it is just the media stirring up all this notion and when the people actually in charge sit down and discuss, the conversation will be far more level headed.

Posts like the one from Geoffmundo earlier, just put me at a loss. We should be thinking about what is right for our country, not worrying about the fact we're no longer going to be bankrolling Greece and Portugal. Sorry, not our problem anymore and one of the reasons I voted out in the first place. We were paying a ridiculous amount into the EU in comparison to most other countries just because our GDP is better.

 

[Bielzibubz]

You are wrong.

In your opinion. I don't think I am.

This will continue to go back and forth for months to come and at the end, opinions will differ on what kind of deal we've struck.

No one knows what the outcome will be. We all like to think we do but none of us actually do and everything put on here is just an opinion based on one's own personal knowledge and beliefs.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Of course the Gibralter situation may have wider implications for Spain. The further they push their claims for some kind of sovereignty the closer Morocco will be looking at the situation of Ceuta and Melilla.

 

[C'mon you Shrimpers]

Talking about The Torygraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ng-back-imperial-units/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

Nice photo of a Leigh-on -Sea butcher's.

He sold the Chop Shop in 2000. Telegraph a bit behind the times??!!

 

[C'mon you Shrimpers]

I know I can be petty but I'm geting fed up with the EU and I voted remain. The EU attitude since the vote has been juvenile and hostile. OK so we've chucked you but behave like a grown up. Anyway our vacuum went belly up. It was a Miele. German engineering at its best (perhaps). Well **** em. What British companies have we. Quick google Henry (pretty good my mum had one) Dyson (yes I know they are made in Malaysia but there is still a big R&R centre here and Dyson is investing in his high tec campus). Not a great deal of choice so Dyson it was. What a great machine. Knocks spots off the old Miele. Can't believe how dirty the house was.
Now reviewing my French spending. English cheese seems to rule the world at the moment and even our champagne (can't call it that of course) beats them in blind tests.
And if I ever thought of buying a luxury car there are many options rather than BMW and Audi.
I'm sure many Brits are feeling the same

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Yet every single post you write seems to have a gleeful tone of "I didn't get what I wanted, now I want to see the UK burn from the safety of France"

At the end of the day, we joined a Union, the British people decided it wasn't for us and have decided to reverse the original decision to join. How else are we (or any other country) supposed to leave? How many would have even voted to join the EU back in the early 80s if it was an irreversible decision or that all this so-called "bad blood" would emanate just because we gave notice of wanting to leave? I'm thinking not as many.

We've given our notice, why should it be an issue for the EU? If anything, I would be even more concerned that the EU are taking this kind of stance and indicates that it is becoming more like some kind of sect, or even (dare I say it) a dictatorship. Hopefully it is just the media stirring up all this notion and when the people actually in charge sit down and discuss, the conversation will be far more level headed.

Posts like the one from Geoffmundo earlier, just put me at a loss. We should be thinking about what is right for our country, not worrying about the fact we're no longer going to be bankrolling Greece and Portugal. Sorry, not our problem anymore and one of the reasons I voted out in the first place. We were paying a ridiculous amount into the EU in comparison to most other countries just because our GDP is better.

Mr superblue24 this is a difference between wishing ill on my old country and fearing ill will come, my concern is far more the latter. As a committed Euopean for over 55 years the Brexit vote is, for me, one of tragedy and extreme sadness. Please don't come back with the platitudes about Britain still being a strong part of Europe..........I know very well the attitudes of many in the UK, seeing Britain as an island off the mainland of Europe and talking about 'us' and those 'europeans.'
I'm not going on about the decision anymore. Everyone in the EU is profoundly sad and concerned about the British decision. I don't quite understand your point about an issue for the EU? Surely if there is one, it is only that the member leaving the club wants to keep very similar conditions as when it was a member.......do you not find that strange?
90% of my pension comes from the UK and I'm no masochist. I will be delighted if the article in the Telegraph this morning, claiming the pound will rise back to levels against the euro pre-Brexit, turns out to be true. Yet, who can believe anything written in the papers these days..........especially in the 'torygraph?'

 

[onceknownasrab]

Mr superblue24 this is a difference between wishing ill on my old country and fearing ill will come, my concern is far more the latter. As a committed Euopean for over 55 years the Brexit vote is, for me, one of tragedy and extreme sadness. Please don't come back with the platitudes about Britain still being a strong part of Europe..........I know very well the attitudes of many in the UK, seeing Britain as an island off the mainland of Europe and talking about 'us' and those 'europeans.'
I'm not going on about the decision anymore. Everyone in the EU is profoundly sad and concerned about the British decision. I don't quite understand your point about an issue for the EU? Surely if there is one, it is only that the member leaving the club wants to keep very similar conditions as when it was a member.......do you not find that strange?
90% of my pension comes from the UK and I'm no masochist. I will be delighted if the article in the Telegraph this morning, claiming the pound will rise back to levels against the euro pre-Brexit, turns out to be true. Yet, who can believe anything written in the papers these days..........especially in the 'torygraph?'

I spend a good deal of time in France and have business and financial commitment there. I am privileged to be able to be in France and it is a wonderful country. I am English and proud to be so and by and large the feelings expressed to me by many I speak to in France is that they too are dismayed by the direction of the EU.

I am of the opinion that the decisions made, on behalf of the people of Europe, are not reflecting the desires of the people. Across the 28 countries involved in the EU there are millions of frustrated people and in the near future their frustrations are going to rock the foundations of the EU.

Brexit, in time, will be a mere sideshow in comparison to the problems yet to befall the EU. I just hope the rank and file of the countries remain friends and let the animosity be played out by the politicians alone.

 

[superblue24]

Mr superblue24 this is a difference between wishing ill on my old country and fearing ill will come, my concern is far more the latter. As a committed Euopean for over 55 years the Brexit vote is, for me, one of tragedy and extreme sadness. Please don't come back with the platitudes about Britain still being a strong part of Europe..........I know very well the attitudes of many in the UK, seeing Britain as an island off the mainland of Europe and talking about 'us' and those 'europeans.'
I'm not going on about the decision anymore. Everyone in the EU is profoundly sad and concerned about the British decision. I don't quite understand your point about an issue for the EU? Surely if there is one, it is only that the member leaving the club wants to keep very similar conditions as when it was a member.......do you not find that strange?
90% of my pension comes from the UK and I'm no masochist. I will be delighted if the article in the Telegraph this morning, claiming the pound will rise back to levels against the euro pre-Brexit, turns out to be true. Yet, who can believe anything written in the papers these days..........especially in the 'torygraph?'

If you are to be believed, you should take care with how your tone sounds on every post. Every single post reads to me like you are sitting there rubbing your hands together hoping and praying that our departure will end up as a disaster. Perhaps I misread the tone.

I see your point about non-membership "benefits", but you have to remember that we offered (and still are offering) a lot of value which we are still proposing to continue post-Brexit, this is the point of these negotiations that need to take place. So it's not as simple as just cutting things off on both sides.

As far as your point on the Torygraph, well "right back at ya" with the Guardian. I don't honestly believe a word most papers say other than when they are reporting on actual events or announcements. Everything else is just prediction and opinion. Nothing else (someone should tell Barna!).

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

If you are to be believed, you should take care with how your tone sounds on every post. Every single post reads to me like you are sitting there rubbing your hands together hoping and praying that our departure will end up as a disaster. Perhaps I misread the tone.

I see your point about non-membership "benefits", but you have to remember that we offered (and still are offering) a lot of value which we are still proposing to continue post-Brexit, this is the point of these negotiations that need to take place. So it's not as simple as just cutting things off on both sides.

As far as your point on the Torygraph, well "right back at ya" with the Guardian. I don't honestly believe a word most papers say other than when they are reporting on actual events or announcements. Everything else is just prediction and opinion. Nothing else (someone should tell Barna!).

I still firmly believe Brexit was a profoundly wrong decision on all levels. There is still anger and bitterness and I suppose my conviction picks on anything to back up that belief. I fear for the UK out of Europe as I fear for Europe without the UK. I think an error the UK side is making, is believing that economic arguments are the most important issue in negociations, thus undervaluing the political committment the remaining 27 members have.........they will do that at their peril. The 27 will fight for continuing political stability, not principally for the economic benefits of the UK, nor even the EU.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Of course the Gibralter situation may have wider implications for Spain. The further they push their claims for some kind of sovereignty the closer Morocco will be looking at the situation of Ceuta and Melilla.

Interestingly,Menorca was also ceeded to the UK in the Treaty of Utrecht.Though Menorca was later rightfully returned to Spain, the British influence there can still be seen in the local architecture (much more pleasing that the Disneyfied shops,pubs,red phone boxes,etc on view in GIb) and of course the local gin.:winking:

Very much doubt if the "sovereignty" of the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla will be used by Morocco, or anyone else, in the Brexit negotiations or later.