Hard or Soft Brexit?

[Tangled up in Blue]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-doctors-may-leave-uk-after-brexit-survey-bma

Today's news.Thousands of EEA trained doctors may leave the UK after Brexit.

Anecdotal but I know one who has already done so, to return to Spain.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

On the one hand you appear to want the UK to suffer, but don't seem to be able to accept that failure to come to an agreement on trade affects the EU just as much if not more.

In terms of cherry picking I don't see it that way, it's just common sense that both sides seek to protect their important sectors ...the whole notion of a poor deal would only really work for me if we were talking about an EU member leaving with a much smaller economy.

Much has been made of the importance of the single market to the UK, however the reality is that trade sold to the EU from the UK is diminishing...it was 55 % in 1999 down to 44 % in 2015....and the lower figure masks the Rotterdam effect on trade meaning that it is actually lower than those figures published.

As someone who voted leave my expectations for the UK trade negotiators would be to seek an FTA, General rules agreement and current directives and regulations in place to be applied to goods and services under access.

Doesn't the question boil down to how many billion the UK is prepared to pay for that arrangement? When that becomes clear, light the blue touch paper and see the hard Brexit press and supporters in parliament explode with fury. Concerning your first paragraph, it does seem to be ground we have gone over many times before. The argument of poiltics against economics, the need for the EU to balance a deal with the UK with the task of keeping the EU together and its benefits still clearly apparent.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-39062436

Net migration figures to the UK have fallen.Not statistically significant,however.Apparently.

 

[callan]

Doesn't the question boil down to how many billion the UK is prepared to pay for that arrangement? When that becomes clear, light the blue touch paper and see the hard Brexit press and supporters in parliament explode with fury. Concerning your first paragraph, it does seem to be ground we have gone over many times before. The argument of poiltics against economics, the need for the EU to balance a deal with the UK with the task of keeping the EU together and its benefits still clearly apparent.

To me the question is how much pain is the EU wanting to inflict on its citizens out of what could be viewed as political spite....not one of should the UK pay billions to access an FTA.

Why does the EU have this great hang up about keeping together?....the UK's position whilst in the EU was one foot in, one out.

We were not part of schengen, the euro, neither did we want to go on the journey of full political integration....our economy is fairly significant compared to most of the EU.

If we were talking about an EU country that was in the euro, part of schengen but with a struggling economy I could see an argument for a punitive deal.... but we are not.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

To me the question is how much pain is the EU wanting to inflict on its citizens out of what could be viewed as political spite....not one of should the UK pay billions to access an FTA.

Why does the EU have this great hang up about keeping together?....the UK's position whilst in the EU was one foot in, one out.

We were not part of schengen, the euro, neither did we want to go on the journey of full political integration....our economy is fairly significant compared to most of the EU.

If we were talking about an EU country that was in the euro, part of schengen but with a struggling economy I could see an argument for a punitive deal.... but we are not.

Should it be a cause for concern; the fact that both sides appear to be entering into Brexit whilst viewing the situation from completely different perspectives?
I do find myself having to repeat very simple things. Governments in Europe are under threat from populist movements (e.g. the FN in France want to pull out of the euro and presumably the EU.......if it still exists after that!). There is NO way the EU can be seen offering a beneficial deal to the UK which gives many of the advantages of membership whilst being outside the club. Do that and everyone else will want the same.....all of the advantages and none of the commitment.
I have come to understand, that an agreement could be possible but as I've said above, it won't come cheap and in the end is it going to be at a price the UK and its people are willing to pay???

 

[callan]

Should it be a cause for concern; the fact that both sides appear to be entering into Brexit whilst viewing the situation from completely different perspectives?
I do find myself having to repeat very simple things. Governments in Europe are under threat from populist movements (e.g. the FN in France want to pull out of the euro and presumably the EU.......if it still exists after that!). There is NO way the EU can be seen offering a beneficial deal to the UK which gives many of the advantages of membership whilst being outside the club. Do that and everyone else will want the same.....all of the advantages and none of the commitment.
I have come to understand, that an agreement could be possible but as I've said above, it won't come cheap and in the end is it going to be at a price the UK and its people are willing to pay???

Personally I would expect posturing from both sides prior to getting down to negotiations, as pointed out in my previous post the UK was never on board for a lot of what EU stood for anyway....we weren't punished then nor should we be now.

As far as populism is concerned whilst understanding you are concerned, so much so that you keep having to repeat yourself...isn't it a fault of the EU rather than the UK that we have this situation?

If as you say the EU can't offer the UK a reasonable deal then this will impact on their businesses, Jobs, and ultimately economies, this doesn't apply just to the larger EU countries but smaller too.
Going forward the UK has the ability to offset the exposure of a bad deal outside of the EU in a way that the EU doesn't.

What amazes me most about your argument is that the EU is so scared that a major economy could flourish outside of it's membership that the only consideration can be to offer it a bad deal even if it means self harm...shouldn't it be looking to protect its citizens?

As you say an agreement is possible, and even the most ardent leaver should be ok in accommodating a financial settlement that is mutually beneficial to both sides.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...r-uk-to-pay-60bn-exit-bill-before-trade-talks

That Brexit bill would currently appear to be 60 bn euros.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Personally I would expect posturing from both sides prior to getting down to negotiations, as pointed out in my previous post the UK was never on board for a lot of what EU stood for anyway....we weren't punished then nor should we be now.

As far as populism is concerned whilst understanding you are concerned, so much so that you keep having to repeat yourself...isn't it a fault of the EU rather than the UK that we have this situation?

If as you say the EU can't offer the UK a reasonable deal then this will impact on their businesses, Jobs, and ultimately economies, this doesn't apply just to the larger EU countries but smaller too.
Going forward the UK has the ability to offset the exposure of a bad deal outside of the EU in a way that the EU doesn't.

What amazes me most about your argument is that the EU is so scared that a major economy could flourish outside it's (sic) membership that the only consideration can be to offer it a bad deal even if it means self harm....shouldn't it be looking to protect its citizens?

As you say an agreement is possible, and even the most ardent leaver should be ok in accommodating a financial settlement that is mutually beneficial to both sides.

That's not at all what I said..........and you know it :smile: I'm sure Europe will wish the UK well in its new venture, it's simply the belief that this success should not brought about by benefiting on the back of the EU. You want a deal? We'll give you one....... but as I've said above, you will pay. If you don't like it.........simples.......you look elsewhere.
I'm afraid your enthusiasm or coolness for the EU will count for nothing once negociations get underway. Count your blessings that I'm not on the EU negociating team! :winking:

 

[callan]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...r-uk-to-pay-60bn-exit-bill-before-trade-talks

That Brexit bill would currently appear to be 60 bn euros.

Well you only had to read the article through to the end, to realize that the 60 billion isn't the figure.

As you posted the link, can you explain to us why the article starts with the figure you cite (60 bn) and ends with a different one (57 bn) ?

I'm sure I'm not the only one that is puzzled by this.

 

[callan]

That's not at all what I said..........and you know it :smile: I'm sure Europe will wish the UK well in its new venture, it's simply the belief that this success should not brought about by benefiting on the back of the EU. You want a deal? We'll give you one....... but as I've said above, you will pay. If you don't like it.........simples.......you look elsewhere.
I'm afraid your enthusiasm or coolness for the EU will count for nothing once negociations get underway. Count your blessings that I'm not on the EU negociating team! :winking:

Having spent a large part of my life negotiating trade deals for various different governments, If you were representing the EU, I think you would be surprised how quickly we would agree a deal:winking:

After all you only want cash for market access right?

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Having spent a large part of my life negotiating trade deals for various different governments, If you were representing the EU, I think you would be surprised how quickly we would agree a deal:winking:

After all you only want cash for market access right?

Let the negociating begin!

 

[callan]

Let the negociating begin!

Ha ha...you could start with your appreciation of what implied liabilities the UK has post brexit...though technically this isn't in the spirit of Article 50 once triggered.

You may also want to declare our assets at the same time...

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Well you only had to read the article through to the end, to realize that the 60 billion isn't the figure.

As you posted the link, can you explain to us why the article starts with the figure you cite (60 bn) and ends with a different one (57 bn) ?

I'm sure I'm not the only one that is puzzled by this.

Two quotes from the article seem relevant here:-

"Britain’s bill is expected to come to about €60bn, although the exact figure will change depending on when exactly the UK leaves the EU."

and "it was suggested that Britain was likely to be asked to pay about €57bn (£48bn) in instalments over the next six years".

Incidentally,what was made clear in the article, (for me at least), was that the Brexit bill will have to be paid, (or at least agreed), before negotiations on any trade deal can start.

 

[callan]

Two quotes from the article seem relevant here:-

"Britain’s bill is expected to come to about €60bn, although the exact figure will change depending on when exactly the UK leaves the EU."

Is this a side bid Barna?....for a transitional arrangement on leaving?...which date do you want our obligation to end on liabilities?

Are you open towards UK funding for scientific research or the Erasmus project continuing?

 

[callan]

Two quotes from the article seem relevant here:-

"Britain’s bill is expected to come to about €60bn, although the exact figure will change depending on when exactly the UK leaves the EU."

and "it was suggested that Britain was likely to be asked to pay about €57bn (£48bn) in instalments over the next six years".

Incidentally,what was made clear in the article, (for me at least), was that the Brexit bill will have to be paid, (or at least agreed), before negotiations on any trade deal can start.

It may be clear to you but it is far from clear to me.

How is the 60 billion made up?, what are the UK's assets in relation to loans? , what are the UK's assets in relation to accumulated wealth? What are the Uk's assets in relation to property?, what are the uk's assets in available for sale?
when does the 6 years begin and end? is the 60 bn an upper figure?

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

It may be clear to you but it is far from clear to me.

How is the 60 billion made up?, what are the UK's assets in relation to loans? , what are the UK's assets in relation to accumulated wealth? What are the Uk's assets in relation to property?, what are the uk's assets in available for sale?
when does the 6 years begin and end? is the 60 bn an upper figure?

knew it was going to be easy peasy.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Is this a side bid Barna?....for a transitional arrangement on leaving?...which date do you want our obligation to end on liabilities?

Are you open towards UK funding for scientific research or the Erasmus project continuing?

Absolutely in favour.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

This is not a remoan but an article that does pose serious questions, especially concerning the way modern elections are run and their susceptability to manipulation. Whilst I accept there are many people, like Callan, who firmly belive in the benefits of Brexit, it's not they who were driving the Leave campaign. I've said earlier that I am of the belief, there are shadowy forces with their own agendas, behind the push for Brexit, which will only become apparent in the years to come. This article, depicting links between the extreme right in the USA and the leave campaign, may be the start of those revelations.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/26/us-billionaire-mercer-helped-back-brexit

 

[callan]

This is not a remoan but an article that does pose serious questions, especially concerning the way modern elections are run and their susceptability to manipulation. Whilst I accept there are many people, like Callan, who firmly belive in the benefits of Brexit, it's not they who were driving the Leave campaign. I've said earlier that I am of the belief, there are shadowy forces with their own agendas, behind the push for Brexit, which will only become apparent in the years to come. This article, depicting links between the extreme right in the USA and the leave campaign, may be the start of those revelations.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/26/us-billionaire-mercer-helped-back-brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/05/how-remain-failed-inside-story-doomed-campaign

This article gives an insight as to how the Remain camp was run, and offers some insight as to what went wrong.

 

[Supernaut]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/05/how-remain-failed-inside-story-doomed-campaign

This article gives an insight as to how the Remain camp was run, and offers some insight as to what went wrong.

I liked this bit...

Gordon Brown had devised an initiative to bring Labour leaders past and present together for an event – but Corbyn refused to share a platform with Tony Blair. Even when Blair’s involvement was downgraded to a statement read by someone else, Corbyn would not budge.

Respect JC.