Hard or Soft Brexit?

[londonblue]

I don't actually see it as lose/lose at all, there can be great benefits for both sides.

The relationship between the EU AND the UK will change of course, and I agree that all actions have consequences but they are not necessarily all negative.

Outside of the club the UK is now free to decide on trade, border control etc and to many these are benefits.

I don't expect favours from the EU either, however I do expect them to show common sense particularly where millions of lively hoods are concerned throughout Europe...it will come as cold comfort to a German car worker to lose their Job in the interests of the political EU project.

Funny. I live in a really lively hood. It's non-stop round my way.

:winking:

 

[callan]

Thanks for the correction.The lowest figure I've seen is 40 billion euros.

I have seen this figure too, though it didn't take into account adjustments, or rebate.

I'm surprised that the EU started off at such low figure to begin with if I'm being honest,

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

I don't actually see it as lose/lose at all, there can be great benefits for both sides.

The relationship between the EU AND the UK will change of course, and I agree that all actions have consequences but they are not necessarily all negative.

Outside of the club the UK is now free to decide on trade, border control etc and to many these are benefits.

I don't expect favours from the EU either, however I do expect them to show common sense particularly where millions of lively hoods are concerned throughout Europe...it will come as cold comfort to a German car worker to lose their job in the interests of the political EU project.

.....and so we come back to the old argument rolled out by the Brexiters..........the German's won't want to lose their exports to the British market.........the Italian's won't want to lose their UK sales of Presecco etc etc. Well, have you considered for one moment that they will be prepared to suffer these consequences??? The Italians and the Germans are just as capable as the British to find new markets. No matter how many times you say to the UK that you WON'T BE ABLE TO CHERRY PICK (watch my lips, no cherry picking!).............there are STILL people who believe that will be the case. As has been mentioned before you are not negociating with Germany, Italy or any other individual country, you are negociating with the EU. Divide and rule WON'T work there has to be unanimity for an agreement.
If there are job losses in the EU, the finger of blame will be clearly pointed at the UK. Common sense tells me that you ain't going to get what you want...........if you've actually decided what that is. It tells me that either May is going to get some kind of soft Brexit, which will infuriate those seeking a complete break, or she will get no deal at all......which you can have the pleasure of dealing with.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

One definite fact has emerged since the referendum.....Anyone who spends their life immersed in the Guardian is as narrow minded as the Daily Mail readers that, Guardian fans in particular, despise with contempt.

Well, in fact it's the Guardian or the Independent, one seeks solace and reason where one can find it. Sadly, it's not just the towrag that is the Mail which has been ranting on about 'getting our country back' (whatever that means) and drooling over the dubious benefits of Brexit. Add the Express, Telegraph, Sun (I think Murdoch surprisingly gave the Times editor the right to his own view) to that list........not quite sure what the Mirror though then and thinks now?
What advantages do these press barons see in Brexit? I'm nearly persuaded that some time in the future will we find out what the REAL reason was for their push for Brexit was...........there is an agenda and I very much doubt it is anything to do with the catchphrases used to persuade the majority to back a leave vote.

 

[callan]

.....and so we come back to the old argument rolled out by the Brexiters..........the German's won't want to lose their exports to the British market.........the Italian's won't want to lose their UK sales of Presecco etc etc. Well, have you considered for on moment that they will be prepared to suffer these consequences??? The Italians and the Germans are just as capable as the British to find new markets. No matter how many times you say to the UK that you WON'T BE ABLE TO CHERRY PICK (watch my lips, no cherry picking!).............there are STILL people who believe that will be the case. As has been mentioned before you are not negociating with Germany, Italy or any other individual country, you are negociating with the EU. Divide and rule WON'T work there has to be unanimity for an agreement.
If there are job losses in the EU, the finger of blame will be clearly pointed at the UK. Common sense tells me that you ain't going to get what you want...........if you've actually decided what that is. It tells me that either May is going to get some kind of soft Brexit, which will infuriate those seeking a complete break, or she will get no deal at all......which you can have the pleasure of dealing with.

I've read this several times and as usual as an argument for remain or the EU it is bereft of any rationality.

It's almost akin to an argument that says you will be sorry UK now watch us whilst we beat ourselves.

May has already stated her intent with regard the single market and also the customs union, both sides are free to zeroize duties if they so wish but if they don't then the UK will be the net benefactor.

The UK will be free to make new trade deals and as you say the Germans or whoever can explore new markets which is not the same thing....

The UK is of course the EU's biggest customer, however this does not mean that the impact of a poor deal is shared equally amongst the 27 remaining members....the pain for the Dutch, Spanish and Irish etc would not be comparable with that felt by others....this isn't divide and conquer but positional interest which is necessary in terms of negotiation.

As for your common sense telling you I / WE won't get what I/WE want, lets have the conversation further down the line when all outcomes are known.






You would be asking certain Industries and Countries in the EU to take fairly substantial hits

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...jean-claude-juncker-european-commission-salty

"Hefty bill" coming for brexit according to JC Juncker.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

I've read this several times and as usual as an argument for remain or the EU it is bereft of any rationality.

It's almost akin to an argument that says you will be sorry UK now watch us whilst we beat ourselves.

May has already stated her intent with regard the single market and also the customs union, both sides are free to zeroize duties if they so wish but if they don't then the UK will be the net benefactor.

The UK will be free to make new trade deals and as you say the Germans or whoever can explore new markets which is not the same thing....

The UK is of course the EU's biggest customer, however this does not mean that the impact of a poor deal is shared equally amongst the 27 remaining members....the pain for the Dutch, Spanish and Irish etc would not be comparable with that felt by others....this isn't divide and conquer but positional interest which is necessary in terms of negotiation.

As for your common sense telling you I / WE won't get what I/WE want, lets have the conversation further down the line when all outcomes are known.






You would be asking certain Industries and Countries in the EU to take fairly substantial hits

I wasn't discussing the rationality of arguments to remain, the UK has made its choice. If as you say, May has made her position clear on the single market and customs union, what's the point of going on about some deal that will facilitate the German car industry's exports to the UK?...........there can be no deal if you leave both.
I can equally well turn your argument around to one where Britain says to the EU, you better give us what we want or you will suffer. It is that logic which leads you to the conviction, an advantageous deal for the UK must be possible at the end of the negociations. If that's what you believe, fair enough but I don't concur with you. As you say, time will tell

 

[Benfleet A1]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...jean-claude-juncker-european-commission-salty

"Hefty bill" coming for brexit according to JC Juncker.

Probably his drinks bill.

 

[callan]

I wasn't discussing the rationality of arguments to remain, the UK has made its choice. If as you say, May has made her position clear on the single market and customs union, what's the point of going on about some deal that will facilitate the German car industry's exports to the UK?...........there can be no deal if you leave both.
I can equally well turn your argument around to one where Britain says to the EU, you better give us what we want or you will suffer. It is that logic which leads you to the conviction, an advantageous deal for the UK must be possible at the end of the negociations. If that's what you believe, fair enough but I don't concur with you. As you say, time will tell

erm I haven't gone on about a deal for the German automotive industry...what I have said is that any deal that is poor for the UK has implications elsewhere....this isn't rocket science

Your arguments would carry weight if the UK wanted to remain part of the single market or customs union, we don't.
That isn't to say that sector by sector deals cannot be made which are mutually beneficial, or that any unnecessary harm needs to be felt by either side....that would just require access to each others markets.

We continue to buy French cheese, German cars, and they continue to buy our services....that isn't cherry picking, it's common sense.

What you appear to be advocating is that both the EU and UK enter into some kind of mutual destruct pact.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

"it will come as cold comfort to a German car worker to lose their Job in the interests of the political EU project."
That seems to suggest that a deal would be mutually beneficial...........which of course it would be. However, unless you are part of the single market I'm not quite sure how that would be possible? Sector by sector deals sounds like our old friend 'cherry picking'...............if you believe that's possible..........fine. It is the UK, not Europe, which appears to be on a mutual destruct mission with it's hard Brexit. Deals, of course are possible but from what I understand, a price would have to be paid, one that I'm not sure May and her government would be agreeable to.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ed-of-bad-taste-for-calling-brexit-liberation

Not for the first time, Boris has been accused of bad taste, for calling Brexit "liberation."

 

[MK Shrimper]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ed-of-bad-taste-for-calling-brexit-liberation

Not for the first time, Boris has been accused of bad taste, for calling Brexit "liberation."

An absolute prize scumbag - he hedged his bets on what side to support to further his own slimy career. Brexit won't affect him, he's a millionaire. I wish nothing but misery on his "bumbling" shoulders.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

An absolute prize scumbag - he hedged his bets on what side to support to further his own slimy career. Brexit won't affect him, he's a millionaire. I wish nothing but misery on his "bumbling" shoulders.

An old friend of mine had professional dealings with him when he was an MP in Henley and would confirm your opinion.:sick:

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Traansfered post to immigration thread.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

I would welcome some clarification on this from someone who knows.......I don't have the time nor the desire to immerse myself in the procedures of Brexit. From that very word one understands that the UK is going to enter into negociations to disentangle itself from the EU. This not about renegociating our terms of membership, it is about LEAVING. Thus I would assume the new status of Europeans living inside and outside the UK would need to be sorted along with monies owing by the UK for remaining commitments to the EU. Won't talks about trade only be able to be carried out once Britain has left? If that is the case what exactly can be considered as a deal following the two year period, when negociating trade deals are probably going to take five to ten years? (given the timescale for TTIP & CETA)

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Ah! In response to my own question above, I found this on Skynews (can that be trusted? :smile:)

"Theresa May has made clear she wants trade deal discussions to run parallel with divorce agreement negotiations - a position German chancellor Angela Merkel has indicated she agrees with."

The sum of money going to be required for this arrangement may prove the real fly in the ointment.

 

[rigsby]

An absolute prize scumbag - he hedged his bets on what side to support to further his own slimy career. Brexit won't affect him, he's a millionaire. I wish nothing but misery on his "bumbling" shoulders.

:off topic: Jeremey Corbyn has his own thread.

 

[callan]

"it will come as cold comfort to a German car worker to lose their Job in the interests of the political EU project."
That seems to suggest that a deal would be mutually beneficial...........which of course it would be. However, unless you are part of the single market I'm not quite sure how that would be possible? Sector by sector deals sounds like our old friend 'cherry picking'...............if you believe that's possible..........fine. It is the UK, not Europe, which appears to be on a mutual destruct mission with it's hard Brexit. Deals, of course are possible but from what I understand, a price would have to be paid, one that I'm not sure May and her government would be agreeable to.

On the one hand you appear to want the UK to suffer, but don't seem to be able to accept that failure to come to an agreement on trade affects the EU just as much if not more.

In terms of cherry picking I don't see it that way, it's just common sense that both sides seek to protect their important sectors ...the whole notion of a poor deal would only really work for me if we were talking about an EU member leaving with a much smaller economy.

Much has been made of the importance of the single market to the UK, however the reality is that trade sold to the EU from the UK is diminishing...it was 55 % in 1999 down to 44 % in 2015....and the lower figure masks the Rotterdam effect on trade meaning that it is actually lower than those figures published.

As someone who voted leave my expectations for the UK trade negotiators would be to seek an FTA, General rules agreement and current directives and regulations in place to be applied to goods and services under access.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I would welcome some clarification on this from someone who knows.......I don't have the time nor the desire to immerse myself in the procedures of Brexit. From that very word one understands that the UK is going to enter into negociations to disentangle itself from the EU. This not about renegociating our terms of membership, it is about LEAVING. Thus I would assume the new status of Europeans living inside and outside the UK would need to be sorted along with monies owing by the UK for remaining commitments to the EU. Won't talks about trade only be able to be carried out once Britain has left? If that is the case what exactly can be considered as a deal following the two year period, when negociating trade deals are probably going to take five to ten years? (given the timescale for TTIP & CETA)

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...d-get-gory-bitter-and-twisted-sir-ivan-rogers

Mr Rogers knows.Your supposition is correct.

 

[Benfleet A1]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...d-get-gory-bitter-and-twisted-sir-ivan-rogers

Mr Rogers knows.Your supposition is correct.

He got the bitter and twisted bit right, if describing himself. Talk about sour grapes.