Brexit negotiations thread

[yogi bear up the cagire]

"I am a Leaver".
You read my words and I have posted it, however I do not know (who can?) where leaving will take me or the UK, however I know that the corrupt, moribund, federalist Franco-German controlled undemocratic, crumbling, expansionist, elitist CURRENT EU is the reason I want out.
It is a club, to use a recent analogy, like the Presidents Club, no longer fit for purpose & also too divergent from the fairly simple and basic trade and mutual co-operation origin.
I haven't answered Lord's question and I have tried to explain, again, why for many I suspect it is the leaving which is important and the first steps on what will without doubt be a difficult, and taxing journey.

I understand your reasons and it is probably a common factor amongst many who voted leave. To quote Eric Burdon.........."We gotta get out of this place" equally, we could talk about the grass being greener. You see, the problem I have, is that taking such a dramatic step with people's lives, the economy and the future well being of the country, in my opinion, requires at least one of Baldrick's cunning plans. John Donne's words ring even truer in this present world..........'No man is an island." When you leave on a long and complex journey it's usually advisable to have a route map with you. Leaving without a final destination in mind could well lead to Nirvana but probably the greater risk surely, is that you may well end up totally lost or worse.......under the influence of more malevolent forces that the EU. That seems to me one hell of a gamble to take..................a gamble almost to the point of desperation.

 

[callan]

Conversely had the UK public voted to stay in the EU, how did remainers see the future?

Would we ultimately join the Euro?, a European army?...sign up to the idea of ever closer union?, ever see the audit properly completed?, what would our budget contributions been increased to?, would we have seen EU corruption tackled more effectively?, How much more sovereign power would have been transferred?

Yogi's comment on when embarking on destination, knowing the destination and a guide to get there also applies to remain.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Conversely had the UK public voted to stay in the EU, how did remainers see the future?

Would we ultimately join the Euro?, a European army?...sign up to the idea of ever closer union?, ever see the audit properly completed?, what would our budget contributions been increased to?, would we have seen EU corruption tackled more effectively?, How much more sovereign power would have been transferred?

Yogi's comment on when embarking on destination, knowing the destination and a guide to get there also applies to remain.

Without going back to research over our years in the EU, especially under Thatcher, I think we had become past masters at selecting and opting out of what we saw as beneficial and harmful to our needs. I would have imagined, with a remain vote, that we would have continued in the same vein, even at times if it was to the incredulity and exasperation of our fellow members. We had carved out a niche which, to an extent, allowed for our individuality. All that has been signed away with article 50, for a 'magical mystery tour' on which our leaders argue amongst themselves and appear to have little realistic conception as to where they are going...........scary!

 

[Lord Football]

Conversely had the UK public voted to stay in the EU, how did remainers see the future?

Would we ultimately join the Euro?, a European army?...sign up to the idea of ever closer union?, ever see the audit properly completed?, what would our budget contributions been increased to?, would we have seen EU corruption tackled more effectively?, How much more sovereign power would have been transferred?

Yogi's comment on when embarking on destination, knowing the destination and a guide to get there also applies to remain.

But we aren't remaining are we, so none of that has any consequence.

I asked because rather than have the old arguments we've all participated in for the last 18 months I thought it would be slightly more positive if welooked forward and considered how this would work.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

See, that's where you're wrong. I fully accept, and always have, that voting leave was a gamble and that leaving could/will cost this country in some form or another.

I don't doubt that it'll be painful for some/many across all spectrums of society.

I knew before voting leave that my vote was, to a certain extent, a leap in the dark. It was a vote based on my beliefs for the future away from it, my knowledge of past facts and having lived with it from it's inception and also on the facts I searched for and researched myself.

My positive case for Brexit isn't all encompassing to the detriment of any other argument or opinion. I recognise it's potential pitfalls, costs and uncertainty going forward and that's where you and I differ. I can and always will see both sides and weigh up an argument and form an opinion from there, as I've said many times before when discussing my political leanings. Unlike you, my opinion, and ultimately my vote in the referendum, wasn't based on a lifetime of politically indoctrinated beliefs.

You might be clear on your own reasons for voting Leave in the referendum but I'd wager that many in the narrow majority who also did (in the N/E and elsewhere in the country) had no clear idea of what Brexit might entail.I doubt if many of them voted to be poorer -although you seem to have accepted that, as a possible short or medium term consequence.

Btw,my political beliefs are not "indoctrinated".Just sincerely held.

 

[rigsby]

You might be clear on your own reasons for voting Leave in the referendum but I'd wager that many in the narrow majority who also did (in the N/E and elsewhere in the country) had no clear idea of what Brexit might entail.I doubt if many of them voted to be poorer -although you seem to have accepted that, as a possible short or medium term consequence.

Btw,my political beliefs are not "indoctrinated".Just sincerely held.

They knew exactly what they were voting for. The only fact that have emerged from Brexit is the arrogance of the champagne left. The proof is they can't accept the result

If you could come up with one serious reason for Remain you wouldn't have to insult people.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

They knew exactly what they were voting for. The only fact that have emerged from Brexit is the arrogance of the champagne left. The proof is they can't accept the result

If you could come up with one serious reason for Remain you wouldn't have to insult people.

Don't think anybody knew what they'd get with Brexit unless,of course,they're clairovoyant.

We happen to export more to the EU than anywhere else on earth.

Btw we drink Cava here.:winking:

 

[rigsby]

Don't think anybody knew what they'd get with Brexit unless,of course,they're clairovoyant.

We happen to export more to the EU than anywhere else on earth.

Btw we drink Cava here.:winking:

We knew that the EU was failing us.....That's the people who live in Britain by the way. Tony Benn was well aware
of why it would fail but he had some honour, unlike 'New Labour' who see the EU as a nice earner if they get voted out.

You do know we spend £90b per year more in Europe than they spend with us. Any one who has ever been in business knows that means we hold the cards. Obviously some people, like career politicians or those in the media cant seem to grasp that.

For example if we said BMW and Mercedes can no longer trade in Britain then a trade deal would be on the cards in 2 hours.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

We knew that the EU was failing us.....That's the people who live in Britain by the way. Tony Benn was well aware
of why it would fail but he had some honour, unlike 'New Labour' who see the EU as a nice earner if they get voted out.

You do know we spend £90b per year more in Europe than they spend with us. Any one who has ever been in business knows that means we hold the cards. Obviously some people, like career politicians or those in the media cant seem to grasp that.

For example if we said BMW and Mercedes can no longer trade in Britain then a trade deal would be on the cards in 2 hours.

As it is lots of the BMW parts bin especially is sourced from the UK for Bavarian assembly, similarly large % of "UK made" automobiles are made of components from EU countries, or Ford diesels from Dagenham etc so the DEAL or a NO DEAL is gargantuan in what it must encompass and how any such complicated change of regulations could be policed, enforced and taxed, in both directions is mind boggling.
As you put it, but with a twist, I would suggest a NO DEAL and cessation of trading, especially in auto-engineering would bring car plants across Europe to a halt.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

We knew that the EU was failing us.....That's the people who live in Britain by the way. Tony Benn was well aware
of why it would fail but he had some honour, unlike 'New Labour' who see the EU as a nice earner if they get voted out.

You do know we spend £90b per year more in Europe than they spend with us. Any one who has ever been in business knows that means we hold the cards. Obviously some people, like career politicians or those in the media cant seem to grasp that.

For example if we said BMW and Mercedes can no longer trade in Britain then a trade deal would be on the cards in 2 hours.

You clearly haven't been paying attention.Labour is under new management."New Labour" is dead.

It's the EU who hold the best cards,as you (and the rest of the British public) will find out soon.

As it is lots of the BMW parts bin especially is sourced from the UK for Bavarian assembly, similarly large % of "UK made" automobiles are made of components from EU countries, or Ford diesels from Dagenham etc so the DEAL or a NO DEAL is gargantuan in what it must encompass and how any such complicated change of regulations could be policed, enforced and taxed, in both directions is mind boggling.
As you put it, but with a twist, I would suggest a NO DEAL and cessation of trading, especially in auto-engineering would bring car plants across Europe to a halt.

I'm sure a deal for goods will be quite easy to negotiate,whether on WTO terms or not.How do you propose to negotiate a deal for the city's financial services though? Or one which ensures there's no border for NI?

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

I'm sure a deal for goods will be quite easy to negotiate,whether on WTO terms or not.How do you propose to negotiate a deal for the city's financial services though? Or one which ensures there's no border for NI?

I am not any where near to thinking "quite easy", far from it; in this I am in agreement with LF. And I am astounded the buffoons (on both sides) are seemingly going at snail pace in negotiations which are crazy power brinksmanplay rather than honest broking and dealing.
City services? not a clue mate.
NI Border, discussed previously haven't we? If there is a will to make it happen it can AND need not be a big issue other than by twisted sectarian and power grabbing politicos out for their own ends.

 

[rigsby]

You clearly haven't been paying attention.Labour is under new management."New Labour" is dead.

It's the EU who hold the best cards,as you (and the rest of the British public) will find out soon.

I'm sure a deal for goods will be quite easy to negotiate,whether on WTO terms or not.How do you propose to negotiate a deal for the city's financial services though? Or one which ensures there's no border for NI?

What are these cards ? please let us know

The city of London has worked for 1000 years. You don't think the worlds elite will let some jumped up little nobody like Junker stop one of the worlds biggest money making machines. After all they control politicians in the first place.

You put the NI border fear in the bin with WW3 and financial meltdowns. No body has any problem travelling to Switzerland from the rest of the EU. Even remain voters think we need control of our borders and stricter controls on immigration. One thing you wont see is gangs of migrants camping on the Irish border and terrorizing locals. Even the SAS couldn't travel by road in 'border country'. They may have stood down so to speak but people in those parts have a history and attitudes that are dated even by Irish standards.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I am not any where near to thinking "quite easy", far from it; in this I am in agreement with LF. And I am astounded the buffoons (on both sides) are seemingly going at snail pace in negotiations which are crazy power brinksmanplay rather than honest broking and dealing.
City services? not a clue mate.
NI Border, discussed previously haven't we? If there is a will to make it happen it can AND need not be a big issue other than by twisted sectarian and power grabbing politicos out for their own ends.

We would seem to agree about the NI problem.It would seem to me at least, to be a potential deal changer.There has to be some sort of customs union if not the customs union, if any progress on an eventual trade deal is to be made.

Any financial services deal (passporting) for the city will ,of course,be incredibly diffficult to negotiate.

What are these cards ? please let us know

The city of London has worked for 1000 years. You don't think the worlds elite will let some jumped up little nobody like Junker stop one of the worlds biggest money making machines. After all they control politicians in the first place.

Yes.Whether it will continue to function as it does now,in the future after we leave the EU,is of course, a moot point,

You put the NI border fear in the bin with WW3 and financial meltdowns. No body has any problem travelling to Switzerland from the rest of the EU. Even remain voters think we need control of our borders and stricter controls on immigration. One thing you wont see is gangs of migrants camping on the Irish border and terrorizing locals. Even the SAS couldn't travel by road in 'border country'. They may have stood down so to speak but people in those parts have a history and attitudes that are dated even by Irish standards.

It's the UK that's left the club (the EU).That's why they hold the cards (and not the other way around).

I was in Norway (Denmark and Sweden) last summer and certainly didn't have any problem travelling between those countries and back to Spain.

The rest of your points are rather obscure ,not to say weird.

 

[rigsby]

We would seem to agree about the NI problem.It would seem to me at least, to be a potential deal changer.There has to be some sort of customs union if not the customs union, if any progress on an eventual trade deal is to be made.

Any financial services deal (passporting) for the city will ,of course,be incredibly diffficult to negotiate.



It's the UK that's left the club (the EU).That's why they hold the cards (and not the other way around).

I was in Norway (Denmark and Sweden) last summer and certainly didn't have any problem travelling between those countries and back to Spain.

The rest of your points are rather obscure ,not to say weird.

You haven't answered any of the points so no surprise you 'choose' to not understand the rest.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

You haven't answered any of the points so no surprise you 'choose' to not understand the rest.

On the contrary when you say:

Even remain voters think we need control of our borders and stricter controls on immigration.

You make an outrageous claim with no evidence for it whatsoever.Your other points ,as I said,are just weird.

 

[rigsby]

On the contrary when you say:

You make an outrageous claim with no evidence for it whatsoever.Your other points ,as I said,are just weird.

In what way ?

 

[Lord Football]

OK. One last try at something sensible.....

As we are talking about Northern Ireland. Tell me how you think that we can work without a border and how you balance "controlling our borders" with "having no borders" and how we can operate using "the same rules as the EU" with "setting our own rules".

And then there are the technical bits, about how we ensure we don't breach "favoured nation status" rules in the WTO if we don't have a border or how future rules of origin within trade agreements would work for cattle born on cross border farms if we do.

Forget the politics, the "in / out" debate, a bit of name calling etc, this is the reality of the problems we have to solve.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

OK. One last try at something sensible.....

As we are talking about Northern Ireland. Tell me how you think that we can work without a border and how you balance "controlling our borders" with "having no borders" and how we can operate using "the same rules as the EU" with "setting our own rules".

And then there are the technical bits, about how we ensure we don't breach "favoured nation status" rules in the WTO if we don't have a border or how future rules of origin within trade agreements would work for cattle born on cross border farms if we do.

Forget the politics, the "in / out" debate, a bit of name calling etc, this is the reality of the problems we have to solve.

The reality of borders is that they are generally insecure unless positive intelligence suggests a paramount need for some overt policing of them. They are, and have always been in Western Europe.
Smuggling of goods and people is clandestine and small in scale, when it is overt like the Syrian/refugee stuff it is, rightly treated differently but that isn't the NI issue is it?
Are you suggesting that cattle born in border areas is a deal stopper as I would have thought a better/bigger problem was bleach chicken or steroid beef from the USA into Belfast and then the EU via the back door would be a larger concern to the EU: with the UK more concerned about un-visa unskilled persons travelling from EU? - with both/all these issues trust would be needed that each side of the border will do it's best to limit "incursions" and enforce prosecute offending persons/companies;- not much change really?

 

[rigsby]

OK. One last try at something sensible.....

As we are talking about Northern Ireland. Tell me how you think that we can work without a border and how you balance "controlling our borders" with "having no borders" and how we can operate using "the same rules as the EU" with "setting our own rules".

And then there are the technical bits, about how we ensure we don't breach "favoured nation status" rules in the WTO if we don't have a border or how future rules of origin within trade agreements would work for cattle born on cross border farms if we do.

Forget the politics, the "in / out" debate, a bit of name calling etc, this is the reality of the problems we have to solve.

In March I will be skiing in Morzine in France. I will fly to Geneva and be picked up by a British/French born driver who cant' start his/her commercial vehicle until they pass a breath test on a machine fitted in the cab. It can't be an Auzzie driver because even if they are working in France they can't drive across the border to Switzerland.

We won't show any passports when we cross the border on the way out or on the way back. Does anyone stop and check to see the drivers passport....No......However if the French firm get caught using illegal drivers into Geneva they will be banned from Airport runs and be out of business......So without having to police it, they make it work.

On a pleasant day we will ski from Morzine down to Chatel in Switzerland for a nice lunch.......Never seen any Boarder Agency people checking passports on the slopes.

After a pleasant afternoon, thanks to you the tax payer (one of the Brexit voting city boys will put it on his card) We will ski back and being upstanding Brits if we see anyone in the act of husbandry anywhere near that border we will be sure to inform the correct EU institution :winking:

 

[Lord Football]

The reality of borders is that they are generally insecure unless positive intelligence suggests a paramount need for some overt policing of them. They are, and have always been in Western Europe.
Smuggling of goods and people is clandestine and small in scale, when it is overt like the Syrian/refugee stuff it is, rightly treated differently but that isn't the NI issue is it?
Are you suggesting that cattle born in border areas is a deal stopper as I would have thought a better/bigger problem was bleach chicken or steroid beef from the USA into Belfast and then the EU via the back door would be a larger concern to the EU: with the UK more concerned about un-visa unskilled persons travelling from EU? - with both/all these issues trust would be needed that each side of the border will do it's best to limit "incursions" and enforce prosecute offending persons/companies;- not much change really?

The thing about borders, and I cross more than my fair share, is that they aren't officially insecure even in Europe once you are outside Schengen. Try going from Croatia to Montenegro if you are ever lucky enough to be down that way. Or even intra EU, Denmark to Sweden was surprisingly heavy as was Croatia to Slovenia. Occassionally, you'll even find the going heavy on Eurostar at both ends. I'm not told US to Canada is a fun experience as well.

The border issue in Northern Ireland, isn't about immigration. As far as I know, there isn't any risk with illegal immirgants from outside the EU entering the UK via the Irish land boundary. The issue is about trade, the unimpeded movement of people who live in the area and the well known security issues at play.

Northern Irish cattle is a big thing. It may sound quite minor, but its not. It wouldn't be a Brexit stopper, but it could cause real problems when drawing up rules of origin for future free trade agreements.

"Where was your cow from?"
"Er, not quite sure, depends where its mum was when it was born"
"Then you cannot prove it is British as opposed to EU?"
"No"
"Then you can't have your tariff free import"

Do not for one minute kid yourself that common sense applies when trying to get goods across borders without paying duty. Whilst that little example may look ridiculous, it's not.

Your bleached chicken example is more than valid, and opens up another scenario. It's currently banned by EU Regulation. If we were to get a deal with the US, we would more than likely allow this into the UK. If, in order to have no border with Ireland, we have to follow the same rules as the EU, we immediately have a divergence.