Brexit negotiations thread

[Tangled up in Blue]

]We already appear to be paying handsomely, unless of course you mean a contributed amount yearly for a Trade Agreement?

The later.

When you say the benefits of the Customs Union, what do you consider them to be?

[/QUOTE]

https://www.ft.com/content/f01aad60-c5fc-11e6-9043-7e34c07b46ef

I'm broadly in agreement with the arguments set out in the FT ,which you'll find in the above link.

 

[callan]

https://www.ft.com/content/f01aad60-c5fc-11e6-9043-7e34c07b46ef

I'm broadly in agreement with the arguments set out in the FT ,which you'll find in the above link.

You have completely lost me (and others I expect)....can you explain clearly what YOU see as the benefits of the customs union, and why we would pay yearly to for an FTA?

The link does not work ...behind a paywall I would guess.

 

[Benfleet A1]

Try telling that to countries that have access but are not members.

Are we going to get the same access though? The EU are not going to make this easy.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Are we going to get the same access though? The EU are not going to make this easy.

Yep, sounds a bit like cake and eat to me. It's all going to end in tears............or recriminations.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

These are the main arguments for remaining in the Customs Union, according to the FT. (Though personally I think remaining in the Single Market makes even more sense). :winking:





"How would remaining in the EU’s customs union work?
Essentially, it would mean that Britain agrees to set common external goods tariffs against non-EU countries. It would enable UK goods to continue to circulate freely within the EU without the fear that other countries were using Britain as a backdoor to export into the EU market.

The closest model is Turkey, which has had a customs union with the EU since 1995, though in Turkey’s case this covers only industrial goods, not agriculture. Customs unions have a long history in continental Europe: the Zollverein was a 19th-century version that brought together disparate states of pre-unification Germany.

What are the advantages?
First, simplicity. This is particularly true if the customs union is a transitional arrangement for a few years while the UK decides what its long-term trading relationships are going to be. It is highly unlikely Britain would be able to negotiate any bilateral trade agreements within the two-year process of leaving the EU, so continued customs union membership would ensure goods could continue to travel freely across borders.

And the benefits in the longer term?
Membership of the customs union would ensure goods were not subject to import tariffs or — probably more importantly — to checks that they met EU standards. Nor would UK exports to the EU have to be subject to “rules of origin”, which prevent Britain being used as a backdoor. Sometimes more is made of these checks than is warranted: Norway, for example, which is not part of the EU customs union, manages to export into the EU through Sweden without having to have every consignment checked, and Britain might do the same at the Northern Ireland border. But there is no doubt that the extra paperwork does impose some costs.

Staying inside the customs union also gives companies more confidence that they can build up supply chains without trading arrangements suddenly changing.

So why not stay?
One of the key arguments for Brexit was that the UK could broaden its horizons to trade with the rest of the world. In effect, Britain would not be able to sign goods agreements with other countries as long as it was obliged to maintain a common external tariff. If agriculture was included, for example, the UK would not be able to give British households cheaper food by cutting farm tariffs.

Moreover, when the EU signs preferential deals with other countries — it has pacts in place covering dozens of trading partners — the UK will either be obliged to follow suit or to lose competitive advantage against those nations. The EU-Turkey customs union is generally regarded as an uncomfortable arrangement by both parties for this reason. Turkey asked to be allowed to participate directly in negotiations between the EU and the US for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) rather than simply trying to replicate it after the fact, but was rebuffed.

In theory, even from within the customs union the UK could still sign trade deals with other countries covering issues such as product standards and services trade. But British exporters will still have to adhere to EU standards if they want to export to continental Europe, leaving them subject to swathes of European legislation. And countries will be reluctant to sign a services-only agreement allowing in UK companies without getting reciprocal access for their goods exporters. The US, for example, is loath to sign bilateral trade deals without levering open overseas markets for its farmers."

 

[callan]

Are we going to get the same access though? The EU are not going to make this easy.

In short yes....every developed nation has access to the internal market, and some have exploited its relatively low external tariff system more successfully than the UK as a fully paid up member.

To put this into perspective Japan who is negotiating a trade deal with the EU pays on average 3 per cent in tariffs based on 2014 figures, whereas the UK pay a membership fee equivalent to around a 7 per cent tariff.

 

[Lord Football]

In short yes....every developed nation has access to the internal market, and some have exploited its relatively low external tariff system more successfully than the UK as a fully paid up member.

To put this into perspective Japan who is negotiating a trade deal with the EU pays on average 3 per cent in tariffs based on 2014 figures, whereas the UK pay a membership fee equivalent to around a 7 per cent tariff.

Whereas the Free Trade deal is just that.

The UK's membership amounts to a lot more than free trade (which I believe is the entire crux of the Brexit debate).

So they're not exactly like for like comparisons, but does answer the "might as well stay in" comment made earlier.

 

[callan]

Whereas the Free Trade deal is just that.

The UK's membership amounts to a lot more than free trade (which I believe is the entire crux of the Brexit debate).

So they're not exactly like for like comparisons, but does answer the "might as well stay in" comment made earlier.

Agreed but an open or closed FTA?

The danger as I see it is to compare the two visions of the UK prior to Brexit, the remain one which was to carry on as we are, seeking to shape and influence as best possible from within the EU versus Leaves vision of having control over Laws, money and borders whilst free to trade without constraint or restriction.

The direction of travel at the moment will come down to how you interpret this line from the phase one agreement;

In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement."

My take is that the EU will insist that it means the UK unconditionally accept whatever they want...in which case neither Leave or Remain camp will be anywhere near their original positions, so I do have some sympathy With Al's (Benfleet A1) position.

We can of course avoid this trap, but I don't have too much confidence that we will.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Agreed but an open or closed FTA?

The danger as I see it at the is to compare the two visions of the UK prior to Brexit, the remain one which was to carry on as we are, seeking to shape and influence as best possible from within the EU versus Leaves vision of having control over Laws, money and borders whilst free to trade without constraint or restriction.

The direction of travel at the moment will come down to how you interpret this line from the phase one agreement;

In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement."

My take is that the EU will insist that it means the UK unconditionally accept whatever they want...in which case neither Leave or Remain camp will be anywhere near their original positions, so I do have some sympathy With Al's (Benfleet A1) position.

We can of course avoid this trap, but I don't have too much confidence that we will.

Not if we want to make a deal with the EU we won't.

 

[callan]

Not if we want to make a deal with the EU we won't.

Then we should prepare for a No deal scenario....and be prepared to walk away in March 2019.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Then we should prepare for a No deal scenario....and be prepared to walk away in March 2019.

I think it's fairly clear that won't happen.The UK government appears pretty desperate to strike a deal-as the basis for the Tories to have something to fight an election on-if nothing else.

 

[callan]

I think it's fairly clear that won't happen.The UK government appears pretty desperate to strike a deal-as the basis for the Tories to have something to fight an election on-if nothing else.

We may end up with no choice.

May is not politically strong enough to see this through, and I have my doubts that Corbyn is any more capable on the subject of Brexit.

At some point a deal will need to be put before Parliament, looking at it at present we are walking into trap after trap and I can only conclude that Parliament may struggle to support a deal which would be far worse than either sides vision Brexit.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

In the absence of the mythical impact studies, this report from The Rand Corporation may shed some light on the possible ourtcomes.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42315280#

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

There were calls for Davis to go after he lied to Parliament about the impact assessments, if May had any authority she would dispense with his services after he announced her last minute EU deal was not enforceable. It feels like he is plotting against us. And the predictable result:

Guy Verhofstadt:

Remarks by David Davis that Phaseone deal last week not binding were unhelpful & undermines trust. EP textwill now reflect this & insist agreement translated into legal text ASAP#Brexit

 

[MK Shrimper]

Davis is a car crash of a supposed politician. An absolute ****ing omni-shambles.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

It's handy as it provides political cover for May to sack him for gross ineptitude.

Meanwhile the cost of living goes up by more than wages again.

Of course this was predicted before hand but was ridiculed as Project Fear. As was people pointing out the issue with Northern Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement.

 

[londonblue]

It's handy as it provides political cover for May to sack him for gross ineptitude.

Meanwhile the cost of living goes up by more than wages again.

Of course this was predicted before hand but was ridiculed as Project Fear. As was people pointing out the issue with Northern Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement.

You're such a Remoaner. How dare you!

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

It's handy as it provides political cover for May to sack him for gross ineptitude.

Meanwhile the cost of living goes up by more than wages again.

Of course this was predicted before hand but was ridiculed as Project Fear. As was people pointing out the issue with Northern Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement.

You're such a Remoaner. How dare you!

Certainly don't seem to remember anyone on the Leave campaign mentioning the Ireland issue on that infamous bus or elsewhere.

 

[rigsby]

Certainly don't seem to remember anyone on the Leave campaign mentioning the Ireland issue on that infamous bus or elsewhere.

We were busy trying to deal with WW3, emergency budgets and the collapse of the NHS.

Why is anyone worried about the NI border. I mean who would want to leave the comfort and wealth of the EU to come to a financially failing, backward thinking, little Island full xenophobes in the first place. With no trade agreements in place there won't be any work for anyone anyway.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

We were busy trying to deal with WW3, emergency budgets and the collapse of the NHS.

Why is anyone worried about the NI border. I mean who would want to leave the comfort and wealth of the EU to come to a financially failing, backward thinking, little Island full xenophobes in the first place. With no trade agreements in place there won't be any work for anyone anyway.

Ha! Funnily enough I was just checking how to renew my UK passport online.Fortunately I don't have to worry about that seriously until next May.:winking: