The EU Referendum

[callan]

What makes you think that Sigmar Gabriel "called the referendum result incorrectly?"

In any case, surely the reality is that, the EU will not allow the UK access to the single market without acceptance of free movement?

(P.S.Fewer embedded questions in future,please)!

The single market is not a walled fortress, we could still trade under WTO terms without the need to accept freedom of movement.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

The single market is not a walled fortress, we could still trade under WTO terms without the need to accept freedom of movement.

What about if other WTO members (eg Norway) weren't too happy about letting us re-join that particular club?

 

[callan]

What about if other WTO members (eg Norway) weren't too happy about letting us re-join that particular club?

I'm lost, we are already members.

 

[londonblue]

The single market is not a walled fortress, we could still trade under WTO terms without the need to accept freedom of movement.

From what I understand and have read that is indeed possible, but the terms would be far worse than if we accepted free movement.

WTO rules don't stop countries imposing trade barriers and/or tariffs, which will increase our cost of living by making imports more expensive and our exports less attractive. Don't forget also that the EU negotiated our WTO agreements with non-EU countries so we would have to negotiate them all again. That may be easy in that we might get the same deal, but as a single country we will lose our "most favoured nation" discounts negotiated by the EU.

Moreover, the EU is also in the process of negotiating WTO rules with other countries (as well as other trade agreements) so we will have to take a ticket and wait our turn whilst the EU concentrates on existing negotiations with countries such as the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

 

[callan]

From what I understand and have read that is indeed possible, but the terms would be far worse than if we accepted free movement.

WTO rules don't stop countries imposing trade barriers and/or tariffs, which will increase our cost of living by making imports more expensive. Don't forget also that the EU negotiated our WTO agreements with non-EU countries so we would have to negotiate them all again. That may be easy in that we might get the same deal, but as a single country we will lose our "most favoured nation" discounts negotiated by the EU.

Moreover, the EU is also in the process of negotiating WTO rules with other countries (as well as other trade agreements) so we will have to take a ticket and wait our turn whilst the EU concentrates on existing negotiations with countries such as the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

What should happen as both the EU and UK are WTO members, is that each must offer the other MFN (most favoured nation status) on deals.
The Uk could choose not to impose tariffs and barriers on trade and expect a reciprocal deal in return from the EU.

We do have an advantage over the nations you mention as we have already adopted and have in place legislation, harmonization etc where those above do not.

In addition to the fact that we are are an important trading partner already for both countries and Industries in the EU and despite all the sabre rattling it won't suit anyone to drag things out too long.

 

[londonblue]

What should happen as both the EU and UK are WTO members, is that each must offer the other MFN (most favoured nation status) on deals.
The Uk could choose not to impose tariffs and barriers on trade and expect a reciprocal deal in return from the EU.

We do have an advantage over the nations you mention as we have already adopted and have in place legislation, harmonization etc where those above do not.

In addition to the fact that we are are an important trading partner already for both countries and Industries in the EU and despite all the sabre rattling it won't suit anyone to drag things out too long.

You may be right, but to me it sounds like a huge assumption.

 

[callan]

You may be right, but to me it sounds like a huge assumption.

The WTO is an option, and dependent on how hardline you want Brexit to be.

There are others of course, which I assume is what Barna was referring to earlier when he mentioned Norway.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

What about if other WTO members (eg Norway) weren't too happy about letting us re-join that particular club?

What would happen if Norway had a think about it's trade costs with the EU, which are quite negative for it,and went for a pact with the UK, Switzerland and similar non EU but neighbours to get a parity AND forego the social experiment of the United States of Europe? Unlikely but should Denmark, Holland or Sweden go for an Exit route then more possible.

 

[Benfleet A1]

What about if other WTO members (eg Norway) weren't too happy about letting us re-join that particular club?

Which is hypothetical which you don't do, remember?

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Which is hypothetical which you don't do, remember?

Absolutely.Good luck with the 27 separate EU trade agreements.:winking:

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

What should happen as both the EU and UK are WTO members, is that each must offer the other MFN (most favoured nation status) on deals.
The Uk could choose not to impose tariffs and barriers on trade and expect a reciprocal deal in return from the EU.

We do have an advantage over the nations you mention as we have already adopted and have in place legislation, harmonization etc where those above do not.

In addition to the fact that we are are an important trading partner already for both countries and Industries in the EU and despite all the sabre rattling it won't suit anyone to drag things out too long.

For Germany we are (cars and manufactured goods) and Holland (diamonds).Nowhere near as much from anyone else.(And yes I know we import a lot of wine and cheese from France).

Btw, the sabre rattling seems to be coming chiefly from the UK atm.If Brexit is such a wonderful thing, why weren't we in a hurry to invoke Article 50 back in June?

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I'm lost, we are already members.

I meant EFTA (as I imagine you guessed).

 

[Benfleet A1]

Absolutely.Good luck with the 27 separate EU trade agreements.:winking:

You are confusing me with someone who voted 'leave'. Oh, and who exactly are 'we'? You stopped being in that camp many years ago and everytime you post to slag 'us' off.

 

[londonblue]

The WTO is an option, and dependent on how hardline you want Brexit to be.

There are others of course, which I assume is what Barna was referring to earlier when he mentioned Norway.

Don't forget that you have also not addressed the "most favoured nation" situation adequately. What I said was that the EU negotiated this on our behalf with various nations outside of the EU. That status will be lost once we leave. We may or may not be able to negotiate on the same terms.

The WTO is not a good deal for us in any way, shape or form. We need a better plan.

 

[rigsby]

Absolutely.Good luck with the 27 separate EU trade agreements.:winking:

God luck to anyone living in Spain as the EU sinks over the next 10 years. Who's going to pay for all those 3 hour lunches :winking:

 

[callan]

Don't forget that you have also not addressed the "most favoured nation" situation adequately. What I said was that the EU negotiated this on our behalf with various nations outside of the EU. That status will be lost once we leave. We may or may not be able to negotiate on the same terms.

The WTO is not a good deal for us in any way, shape or form. We need a better plan.

I haven't said that WTO status is anything other than an option, which would allow us to trade without accepting freedom of movement if that is what is decided.

MFN means that fellow WTO members must treat the UK fairly and with non discrimination as the UK must do in return, you had said in one of your earlier posts that you had read up on the WTO option?

Perhaps you would explain why you believe the WTO option is so bad?

 

[callan]

I meant EFTA (as I imagine you guessed).

Thought so, and you are quite right to point out that they (Norway) would have the ability to block us Joining EFTA should they want to.

 

[callan]

Absolutely.Good luck with the 27 separate EU trade agreements.:winking:

How do you arrive at 27?

 

[londonblue]

I haven't said that WTO status is anything other than an option, which would allow us to trade without accepting freedom of movement if that is what is decided.

MFN means that fellow WTO members must treat the UK fairly and with non discrimination as the UK must do in return, you had said in one of your earlier posts that you had read up on the WTO option?

Perhaps you would explain why you believe the WTO option is so bad?

I understand, but it is an extremely poor option for reasons I mentioned in my previous posts. However, this is a good read, even if it is 2 years out of date now:

Reuters

Funnily enough the way farridge talked about it previously you'd be forgiven for assuming it would be just as good as any agreement we have under the EU.

 

[callan]

I understand, but it is an extremely poor option for reasons I mentioned in my previous posts. However, this is a good read, even if it is 2 years out of date now:

Reuters

Funnily enough the way farridge talked about it previously you'd be forgiven for assuming it would be just as good as any agreement we have under the EU.

If I've understood you correctly the main thrust of your reasoning is that we would have to renegotiate trade deals previously made by the EU?