Guys, this is the way I see it and I must admit I do think everyone is getting a bit hung up about the 4th side scenario. When the original application was amended to do the three sides first, the council acknowledged that in granting that permission, they had to consider whether they would be happy to approve a three sided stadium unconditionally, because there was no guarantee that the 4th side could ever be built. They voted and agreed that a 3 sided ground would be better than no ground and I can't see anything that would change that view now.
Also, I think the fact that a refusal will scupper the whole scheme will be a key factor in this. There will be no development of Roots Hall, no flagship Sainsburys, no new sports stadium and most likely no football club. The recent Wembley attendance will show how much potential interest there is and any council that votes to effectively shut down it's football league club can't have particularly serious ambitions to be re-elected.
But the main reason I think they will come down in favour of the club is this.
Firstly, the original application was for the whole stadium, which, at the time, we were pretty much to a man in favour of.
However, the credit crunch/banking crisis/change in economic conditions since October 2007 are much to blame for everything actually. Personally, I thank God that the stadium hadn't been built at that time because the deals and agreements entered into back then may have killed any existing business and we could have an empty and failing development by now. It's all well and good to say that the excuse doesn't wash any more but it is key to absolutely everything. It's the reason so many people can't get work. It's the reason that I couldn't move house, despite having an excellent income and credit rating, because the mortgage rules have changed. It's the reason people are switching en masse to online shopping where there are no overheads and everything is cheaper, which in turn is the reason so many shops are closing. It's the reason gambling sites and companies now take up a massive proportion of advertising space and airtime as people try to bet and trade their way to a living. Our society is changing and things that we are used to having done a certain way don't work anymore. To illustrate my point, here's a question for anyone in their late 40's upwards. How many newsagents and sweet shops were there when you were growing up? And how many are there now?
Years ago, Leigh Broadway was a reasonably busy secondary shopping area with lots of small, local shops and Woolworths. Now, it has some speciality shops that, unless they have a good online presence, are doomed to fail quickly, plus some major chains like Tesco and Costa, together with a good many bars and restaurants. Leigh has become the place to socialise, eat and drink. However, there are now signs that even that is changing as many of these bars/restaurants are up for sale.
Shops stand empty for ages because landlords need a certain amount of rent. If rents drop, values of commercial properties plummet. That's no good for the economy as banks have millions of pounds worth of debt secured on these properties and if the loans are defaulted on, the banks solvency is called into question. Bear in mind the taxpayer owns large chunks of the banks and it doesn't take a genius to see that if that happens, we are all in trouble.
But what has this got to do with SUFC? Simple.
The banking crisis didn't just affect Ron; it affected everyone. The council needs money. It gets a huge chunk of that from the Council taxes and business rates in it's locale, so in areas of unemployment and stagnant shopping areas it doesn't get as much as it needs to. A successful football club brings people and money into the area. In other areas of the town, things are thriving. The airport is expanding, the Uni is getting more established and there are plans approved for a new medical campus out near Rochford. The Thames Corridor development is also massive and the benefits will be felt this far down. In time, the whole area will thrive, but the demographics have to change a little first.
In time. The key words. Time is the one commodity Ron, SUFC and Sainsburys do not have. The whole project has been inching along the last mile for so long now it must feel like they are going backwards.
Sainsburys have, in my opinion, been upping the ante and trying to push everything through. Initially, the whole stadium was to be built at once but ownership of the ground is not uniform. The fourth side - the main stand - is in separate ownership and under separate funding. This one I think is Ron's and we know he can't bankroll it at the moment as every available penny he has is probably being used to keep us out of administration.
It is my view - and I'm not "in the know" on this at all, so may well way off the beam - that the lack of building partner for this stand was holding up the entire project, so Sainsburys forced the club to submit the revised application based on the three sides going up first and the fourth following afterwards.
Once the 3 sides are built, the club can start playing there and Sainsburys can develop Roots Hall.
It would appear to me that some people think that, for Ron at least, that's it. That's what he wants and that's where it will stay.
Personally, and only using logic, I can't see why that would be the case. Firstly, if the 4th stand is going to be the one that provides him with his family's legacy, then he will need it built and producing asap. Secondly, it does seem as though it is crucial to the clubs income as well and there is no point whatsoever in building a development like this, putting a club with no income there and watching them almost immediately fold. And finally, the footfall to that whole development is going to be predominantly visitors to the stadium, several thousand every match. The other businesses and outlets there will be totally reliant on consumers visiting the development, and if the club fails then there is a good chance those businesses won't thrive either. That means that the company that owns the rest of the development - of which I'm sure Ron and Sainburys will have significant interests in - won't be receiving rent.
It makes no logical or commercial sense on any level to leave the club in a 3 sided stadium without any form of income.
So, the council have to decide. Do they say "No" now, kill off something that could, in a few years, be a potentially fantastic, revenue producing development and end up with no s106 payment at all, plus no additional revenue and taxes from all of the new businesses around the development (including the new Sainsburys and all of the affordable housing going up at RH)? Or do they agree, take whatever money they can now and then hope to reap the rewards in the future or, if it doesn't work out, be no worse off than they are now?
That's the way I see it but if anyone can demonstrate how Ron will be better off with the club having 3 sides and no income then I'm happy to be persuaded.