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Play-Offs

Forums New posts

Can we make it

  • Yes

    Votes: 234 54.0%

  • No

    Votes: 199 46.0%
  • Total voters
    433
Bar na bas said:
Quite often, those who do not believe that we can make the play-offs (quite yet) comment about our lack of consistency. Early on in the season, we were admittedly pretty consistent, 21 points from the first 18 games indicates that. That 18th game was the 2-0 defeat at Altrincham, a sign perhaps of how we were failing to measure up against teams battling for the play-offs.

We have had too many draws, some have said. We don't attack enough, others (perhaps the same people) have said. Maher will never get us out of this division, etc, etc.

Well, here we are this evening, in 8th spot, one point (and a few goals, admittedly) outside the play-offs. And on a 9 match unbeaten run. Ah, but too many draws.... (oh, hang on, we have had that one already).

So, back to that consistency thing. Over the last 20 league matches, starting with the entertaining and deserved home draw against Forest Green Rovers, 4 months ago tomorrow, we have won 9, drawn 8 and lost 3 (admittedly all abject in their way versus York City, Barnet and Maidenhead). But that is 35 points in 20 matches, which equates to 80 points over 46 games. To me, that is pretty consistent "higher reaches of the play-offs" form over the last twenty matches.

Another often-stated comment in these pages. "Well, we have played mainly teams we should be beating". Yes, that 20 game spell included wins against Ebbsfleet, Braintree, Fyle and Dagenham, and some draws in matches we may have felt we should win, but it also includes wins against Halifax (twice), Altrincham and Eastleigh (all play-off rivals) and Aldershot who are on a decent run of form, and 3 draws against other play-off rivals (Forest Green twice and Rochdale) and another against Tamworth, who again are in good form. So that form is pretty good, as well.

And set against that consistency at the business end of the season, some of our rivals are imploding. Here is the latest "last ten game" form guide.

View attachment 36070
Where are Oldham, Gateshead, Altrincham, Sutton United, even Forest Green Rovers? In the bottom half of the form table is where....

View attachment 36071

We are in a far better run of form than a number of our rivals, in particular Gateshead and Altrincham, and potentially, if we can win on Tuesday against Boston United (who despite their good recent form, have a home record of played 18, won 2, drawn 7, lost 9), and Rochdale fail to beat York City, that would take us above them in the table, into the play-offs for the first time this season. If Barnet continue their winning run against Gateshead on Saturday, we could be kicking off against Oldham with the chance of going above Gateshead, which seemed incredibly unlikely a few short weeks ago.

I have said before that I am generally an optimist, although realistically, I thought the play-offs were a long shot. But the odds are improving. Here's the latest projected points and positions, based on points per game over the last ten matches.

View attachment 36072

It is already looking better than when I first posted a table like this, a week ago. Play-offs are looking possible.

Then all we have to do is stay there.

Oh, and win them....

Enjoy your weekend!!! Up the Blues.... E-I-E-I-O....
Click to expand...

Thanks for the post, it's a good one but could you add some stats to back up the optimism..... 🙂
 
Barnet were last promoted into the football league in 2014 / 2015 Season.
What happened to us in the same year ! Promotion into Div 1 via playoffs.
Can the same parallel happen again. Barnet and Southend United both promoted in same season. COYB,UTB We can do it. 🙏🙏🧢💙🛩
 
Last edited:
Originally I voted we won’t get to the playoffs. It’s still a tough ask to win most of our remaining games.
But stranger things have happened in football. Our current league position reminds me of Grimsby a few years back.
Maybe it’s our time to get a run of luck now, we certainly didn’t get much earlier in this season.
Well fingers crossed and all that, COYB’s 💙
 
Whether we make play offs or not will depend on how the team is set up. Maher's default mode is for possession based, risk averse football where not losing is the priority. As it was as a player, so it as a coach. How will he approach the game at Boston? I hope Parillon will not be dropped because of that misplaced pass that led to the goal, because along with A-F he is one of the few crewtive players in the squad. Bonne and Hopper continue to waste good chances and we rely heavily on GSM to continue his goal scoring run. If Husin, Miley and Bridge are in the starting line up it will be obvious that the intention will be to avoid defeat.
The play offs are within our grasp and it would be a shame if we fail to give it a real go rather than to sneak in under the wire with defensive tactics. The energy, drive and creativity of Parillon and A-F has been so good to watch compared to the stultifying sideways and backwards approach.
 
A win Tuesday against a Boston side who lost 4-1 yesterday and rochdale lose to York and we will be in the play off positions. Rochdale obviously have games in hand but have to win them.

Gateshead look shot to bits. They've taken like 2 points out of the last 30!

Altrincham have suspensions and key players injured.

A real test of credentials will be this week against a team fighting for their lives and against a team who want a top 4 finish.
 
slapheadsteve said:
It will still be difficult to get to the Play Offs.
But they say the bookies are the best guide.
We are now Odds On with every bookies to reach the play offs.
Click to expand...
One of the reasons for this is the liklihood of the number of bets they'll take.

Odds will be shorter on us than some other teams because we have a bigger fan base. Their liabilities will be bigger if we make the playoffs, rather than Gateshead or Altrincham (for example) because more Shrimpers are there to back their team to do it.

It's the same reason England's odds are so short ahead of major tournaments (even when we weren't making the latter stages). The bookies are just managing their risk so big teams always get shorter odds.
 
Liam AAS said:
One of the reasons for this is the liklihood of the number of bets they'll take.

Odds will be shorter on us than some other teams because we have a bigger fan base. Their liabilities will be bigger if we make the playoffs, rather than Gateshead or Altrincham (for example) because more Shrimpers are there to back their team to do it.

It's the same reason England's odds are so short ahead of major tournaments (even when we weren't making the latter stages). The bookies are just managing their risk so big teams always get shorter odds.
Click to expand...
This isn't true of major events in past 15-20 years, betting exchange prices tend to drive it most.

May be more true of our level now, but the main reason we may be 8/13 (although I note bet365 are evens) is they don't offer the 'no' side. One way markets do have have a true reflection of probability. In other words, they are often a rip off.
 
Grayson said:
This isn't true of major events in past 15-20 years, betting exchange prices tend to drive it most.

May be more true of our level now, but the main reason we may be 8/13 (although I note bet365 are evens) is they don't offer the 'no' side. One way markets do have have a true reflection of probability. In other words, they are often a rip off.
Click to expand...
What do they know? They still call football, Soccer on their site.
 
Assuming Gateshead are the team to catch, I can see it being between us and Tamworth to grab the last spot. They are a serious threat, in really good form with a very friendly run in other than FG away ( and they’ve gone off the boil). Would be annoying to say the least to get pipped by them..
 
blues exile said:
Interesting how the use of language changes and evolves. Back in the 50s I always had the annual 'Boy's Book of Soccer' as a Christmas present and it was a British annual of course. I don't think the Americans had ever heard of it back then.
Click to expand...
Since the USA beat England 1-0 during the 1950 World Cup I think they had certainly heard of it.
 
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Reactions: RHB
meerkat54 said:
Originally I voted we won’t get to the playoffs. It’s still a tough ask to win most of our remaining games.
But stranger things have happened in football. Our current league position reminds me of Grimsby a few years back.
Maybe it’s our time to get a run of luck now, we certainly didn’t get much earlier in this season.
Well fingers crossed and all that, COYB’s 💙
Click to expand...

Please don’t remind me of that Grimsby match. The buggers ran on the pitch and the ref bottled it and blew for FT too early.
 
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