Hard or Soft Brexit?

[superblue24]

They could do worse than getting a bit of money by recycling the Express as toilet paper! :smile::winking: (They'd do even better if they were to add the Mail, Times, Telegraph and Sun to that end)

Nice sidestep. Perhaps you can give me a better response, one that engages the question instead of deflects it onto the press.
How will the EU handle the 9bn per year loss to it's finances?

You missed The Guardian and Mirror which offer equally effective recycling options.

 

[Bielzibubz]

May's vision of Brexit I don't dispute, only the fact that it's not of this world. You know very well that the positions of the EU and the UK are presently SO far apart, that it would take a collapse from one side or the other to bring about an agreement..............and that's unlikely to happen. (unless Le Pen does you a favour) I don't think the EU gives a flying f**k whether it's a 'democratic decision' neither, I believe, will it make any difference whether May ends up with a majority of 5, 50, 150 (that's what I meant about a false premise)............the EU has its position and has not changed it since the Brexit vote.

With the positions both sides hold there can't be an agreement, so..............one or two questions.

It will take at least the two years for the UK to disentangle itself from the EU, do you agree that no one will negociate with the UK during that time? Do you agree that when we officially leave the EU we will lose all the trade agreements with other countries, negociated under its aegis? Seeing how long it takes to make trade agreements, how long will it take to re-negociate agreements with what..........60 countries? How many civil servants, trained in that field, will be needed for the task?

Your absolutely right and that's one of the major reasons the UK voted to leave and why one day the whole sorry house of cards will collapse. As far as the EU is concerned it's democracy be damned and full steam ahead with the dictatorial and undemocratic status quo.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

The country wasn't full of Nimbys back then and many of the houses were built by small builders and self builds as there were far more small building plots available.

I know.My (late ) father was one of them.

Your absolutely right and that's one of the major reasons the UK voted to leave and why one day the whole sorry house of cards will collapse. As far as the EU is concerned it's democracy be damned and full steam ahead with the dictatorial and undemocratic status quo.

"Saying something is so does not make it so".Alice in Wonderland.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Sources say the Cabinet Office Propriety and Ethics Team have launched an inquiry into whether there is a conflict of interest between Theresa May and her husband, Philip, over his job at the Capital Group, which makes millions of pounds in market sensitive information,including from Brexit.


https://www.byline.com/column/22/article/1621

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Sources say the Cabinet Office Propriety and Ethics Team have launched an inquiry into whether there is a conflict of interest between Theresa May and her husband, Philip, over his job at the Capital Group, which makes millions of pounds in market sensitive information,including from Brexit.


https://www.byline.com/column/22/article/1621

Link's not much use ***.This is what you get:-"This site can’t provide a secure connection

www.byline.com uses an unsupported protocol.":sad:

 

[superblue24]

Sources say the Cabinet Office Propriety and Ethics Team have launched an inquiry into whether there is a conflict of interest between Theresa May and her husband, Philip, over his job at the Capital Group, which makes millions of pounds in market sensitive information,including from Brexit.


https://www.byline.com/column/22/article/1621

Did you read the updated bit at the bottom?

UPDATE: "A Cabinet Office spokesman said: "The Prime Minister has declared in full her interests and the interests of her husband. There is no conflict of interest."

 

[londonblue]

Hadn't heard of Professor Michael Dougan last year. I found it quite fascinating, in retrospect, to hear his views prior to the referendum vote. Many of the simple facts resonate znd are relavent to the present situation.

https://www.facebook.com/UniversityofLiverpool/videos/1293361974024537/

The same proffesor now offers his views on the need for the forthcoming General Election and about, what he sees, as the governments flawed Brexit strategy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3i529NnS0MI

I posted a 20 minute video of his views before the referendum. It was very interesting, if a little long.

 

[callan]

May's vision of Brexit I don't dispute, only the fact that it's not of this world. You know very well that the positions of the EU and the UK are presently SO far apart, that it would take a collapse from one side or the other to bring about an agreement..............and that's unlikely to happen. (unless Le Pen does you a favour) I don't think the EU gives a flying f**k whether it's a 'democratic decision' neither, I believe, will it make any difference whether May ends up with a majority of 5, 50, 150 (that's what I meant about a false premise)............the EU has its position and has not changed it since the Brexit vote.
With the positions both sides hold there can't be an agreement, so..............one or two questions.

It will take at least the two years for the UK to disentangle itself from the EU, do you agree that no one will negociate with the UK during that time? Do you agree that when we officially leave the EU we will lose all the trade agreements with other countries, negociated under its aegis? Seeing how long it takes to make trade agreements, how long will it take to re-negociate agreements with what..........60 countries? How many civil servants, trained in that field, will be needed for the task?

Actually if you consider how many countries don't have an FTA with the EU, then it is very much of this world, but of course not in sync with the EU framework for negotiating which I guess is your point.

So where from here?....May is positioning herself to go to WTO terms should she need too...whilst the EU will remain protectionist, and dogmatic in terms of negotiations, if talks fail they have nowhere to go whilst the UK can chart their own course, in terms of accepting invitations to join other trading blocs such as Nafta and of course by assuming and adopting agreements already in place, it will certainly not take as long as the EU to put new FTA's into place either, and I would expect to see a whole raft of announcements with regard new deals in the early days of actual Brexit.

Additionally there is nothing to stop the UK having preparatory talks on trade, and have already been instructed by the WTO to do so....these aren't the same as signed agreements but would have significant impact post Brexit.

In addition to this May has also laid the groundwork that the UK could pursue an alternative economic model, which I think we can largely interpret at Zero tariff's and duties for all WTO members.

May of course would be seen from the UK's point of view as someone who is standing up to the EU which will go down well with a significant proportion of voters, the ever popular EU will be seen for what they are.

This is one side of the coin, the other is how successful the UK have been in lobbying EU members separately in order to relax the framework of negotiation and we can look to Mays Lancaster house speech compared with the EU's framework and start to draw early conclusions.

AAS of course would appreciate my reminding you that May has performed U turns in the past, and I would expect that there are at least 3 points in her overall plan for Brexit where she will relax, My take is that at the top of this will be the bill where I would expect to see a mechanic rather than actual amount agreed paid over a 6-10 year period.

In terms of how many civil servants to sign each FTA, it is largely dependant on how much / type of trade is coming into the equation and how successful the UK's blue print of trade is but I would say that we have enough now in place looking at the recruitment activity of the UK government in the run up to Christmas where ex Colleagues of mine were coming back to the UK...majority being analysts rather than negotiators but I would expect that at this stage.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39789903

Sorry mate but you'll have to pay whatever the EU wants for the divorce-if you're serious about getting a trade agreement afterwards.

You'll also have to settle that little matter of EU citizens residence rights in the UK and UK citizens residence rights in the EU beforehand too.

 

[Bielzibubz]

No we won't have to pay whatever the EU wants at all. Why would we? As has been mentioned to you on here many times before you conveniently but not unexpectedly forget how much the EU wants and needs UK trade and imports. You seem to be under the impression the EU holds all the bargaining chips here. They don't, not by any stretch of the imagination. We walk without an agreement and the EU implodes under it's own self induced financial black hole. Be sensible and compromise and perhaps, just perhaps, Juncker won't see his dictatorial empire fold and the likes of Spain, Greece and Ireland won't be left to pick up the financial slack.

As an aside. You really do dislike the country of your birth don't you Barna? Every opportunity you find you seem to get great pleasure in revelling in what you perceive and believe to be our eventual EU/Brexit downfall. Ok, I get that May and the capitalistic society we live in isn't to your liking but for God's sake man have a little pride in your country of origin even if you have spent the last 20 odd years living abroad.

 

[callan]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39789903

Sorry mate but you'll have to pay whatever the EU wants for the divorce-if you're serious about getting a trade agreement afterwards.

You'll also have to settle that little matter of EU citizens residence rights in the UK and UK citizens residence rights in the EU beforehand too.

Looking at the Link Barna, I would say that the EU have cocked up here...wouldn't you agree?

Put the Bill to one side for a moment...and consider how phase one of the EU's negotiating is compatible with phase two...it simply isn't....and of course there is good reason for this.

I don't doubt that your interpretation is of course seeing this as an inflexibility towards Brexit from the EU, however the reality is that there is plenty of scope for parallel discussions contained within the EU's own framework.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Actually if you consider how many countries don't have an FTA with the EU, then it is very much of this world, but of course not in sync with the EU framework for negotiating which I guess is your point.

So where from here?....May is positioning herself to go to WTO terms should she need too...whilst the EU will remain protectionist, and dogmatic in terms of negotiations, if talks fail they have nowhere to go whilst the UK can chart their own course, in terms of accepting invitations to join other trading blocs such as Nafta and of course by assuming and adopting agreements already in place, it will certainly not take as long as the EU to put new FTA's into place either, and I would expect to see a whole raft of announcements with regard new deals in the early days of actual Brexit.

Additionally there is nothing to stop the UK having preparatory talks on trade, and have already been instructed by the WTO to do so....these aren't the same as signed agreements but would have significant impact post Brexit.

In addition to this May has also laid the groundwork that the UK could pursue an alternative economic model, which I think we can largely interpret at Zero tariff's and duties for all WTO members.

May of course would be seen from the UK's point of view as someone who is standing up to the EU which will go down well with a significant proportion of voters, the ever popular EU will be seen for what they are.

This is one side of the coin, the other is how successful the UK have been in lobbying EU members separately in order to relax the framework of negotiation and we can look to Mays Lancaster house speech compared with the EU's framework and start to draw early conclusions.

AAS of course would appreciate my reminding you that May has performed U turns in the past, and I would expect that there are at least 3 points in her overall plan for Brexit where she will relax, My take is that at the top of this will be the bill where I would expect to see a mechanic rather than actual amount agreed paid over a 6-10 year period.

In terms of how many civil servants to sign each FTA, it is largely dependant on how much / type of trade is coming into the equation and how successful the UK's blue print of trade is but I would say that we have enough now in place looking at the recruitment activity of the UK government in the run up to Christmas where ex Colleagues of mine were coming back to the UK...majority being analysts rather than negotiators but I would expect that at this stage.

Indeed! Perhaps May can take some time to explain to the disadvantaged, 'just managing' sector of the population, (the very people she is trying to persuade to vote for her) exactly what kind of Britain this would create and how exactly they would benefit from it?

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

No we won't have to pay whatever the EU wants at all. Why would we? As has been mentioned to you on here many times before you conveniently but not unexpectedly forget how much the EU wants and needs UK trade and imports. You seem to be under the impression the EU holds all the bargaining chips here. You seem to be under the impression the EU holds all the bargaining chips here. They don't, not by any stretch of the imagination. We walk without an agreement and the EU implodes under it's own self induced financial black hole. Be sensible and compromise and perhaps, just perhaps, Juncker won't see his dictatorial empire fold and the likes of Spain, Greece and Ireland won't be left to pick up the financial slack.

As an aside. You really do dislike the country of your birth don't you Barna? Every opportunity you find you seem to get great pleasure in revelling in what you perceive and believe to be our eventual EU/Brexit downfall. Ok, I get that May and the capitalistic society we live in isn't to your liking but for God's sake man have a little pride in your country of origin even if you have spent the last 20 odd years living abroad.

Well, you May and all the Brexiters better believe they don't.........it's all you have to hang on to.

About liking our country of birth, it's far more, as you later allude to, disliking the government (consecutive governments) of the country of our birth. Thatcher followed by Major, Cameron and May is rather difficult to stomach. I wouldn't venture to suggest to Barna, that we had a Socialist government under Blair (yet, at least, he didn't set us on our present catastrophic course).............I think you'd be asking for trouble! :smile:

 

[callan]

Indeed! Perhaps May can take some time to explain to the disadvantaged, 'just managing' sector of the population, (the very people she is trying to persuade to vote for her) exactly what kind of Britain this would create and how exactly they would benefit from it?

What May will argue is that it will attract investment, in addition to turning the City away from EU investment toward uk investment whilst protecting current UK markets....the devil of course will be in the detail.

 

[rigsby]

Well, you May and all the Brexiters better believe they don't.........it's all you have to hang on to.

About liking our country of birth, it's far more, as you later allude to, disliking the government (consecutive governments) of the country of our birth. Thatcher followed by Major, Cameron and May is rather difficult to stomach. I wouldn't venture to suggest to Barna, that we had a Socialist government under Blair (yet, at least, he didn't set us on our present catastrophic course).............I think you'd be asking for trouble! :smile:

France is definitely the best place for you, totally suited for each other.

Blair the Christian fundamentalist and his war on Iraq has helped cause the 90% fake refugee crisis. Which has lead to the rise in terrorism in all over Europe. That's why we have Brexit and why you have Le Penn. :thumbsup:

 

[londonblue]

What May will argue is that it will attract investment, in addition to turning the City away from EU investment toward uk investment in addition to protecting current UK markets....the devil of course will be in the detail.

I was out for dinner Monday night with a friend who is a lawyer for an investment bank. Apparently the City are already moving jobs into Europe. He's actually leaving his bank to work for a law firm (nothing to do with Brexit - he's hated his job for a long time), and this law firm were saying that because of Brexit they now have enough work to keep them going for about 20 years. The lawyers have won, the City has lost.

Interestingly, given that he's blue through and through, he has said he will never vote tory again. He holds them completely responsible for the mess the City is now in. As he said, they gambled with the livelihoods of 60m people for the sake of 5 years in power.

He has also said he will never vote labour whilst corduroy is around, so he's in a real dilema because he sees the lib dems as a wasted vote.

 

[rigsby]

If the EU want £84 billion then we should put a 50% tax on all their goods until its paid.

Lets see what Germany say to Mr Junkers then. They won't be as nice as the Nazis were when they employed his Father or his Uncle to weed out Jews and strip them of their wealth and property.

 

[rigsby]

I was out for dinner Monday night with a friend who is a lawyer for an investment bank. Apparently the City are already moving jobs into Europe. He's actually leaving his bank to work for a law firm (nothing to do with Brexit - he's hated his job for a long time), and this law firm were saying that because of Brexit they now have enough work to keep them going for about 20 years. The lawyers have won, the City has lost.

Interestingly, given that he's blue through and through, he has said he will never vote tory again. He holds them completely responsible for the mess the City is now in. As he said, they gambled with the livelihoods of 60m people for the sake of 5 years in power.

He has also said he will never vote labour whilst corduroy is around, so he's in a real dilema because he sees the lib dems as a wasted vote.

60 million livelihoods who would that be then.

A friend of mine has had to move to Poland recently because his bank had planned that more than a year ago. That's why he along with thousands of City workers voted Brexit.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Did you read the updated bit at the bottom?

'A Cabinet Office spokesman said'

oh that's that all sorted then!

I don't think that is really how transparency works.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

France is definitely the best place for you, totally suited for each other.

Blair the Christian fundamentalist and his war on Iraq has helped cause the 90% fake refugee crisis. Which has lead to the rise in terrorism in all over Europe. That's why we have Brexit and why you have Le Penn. :thumbsup:

I think that's a rather simplistic view of where we are today. Blair has to take the blame for a number of things, particularly Iraq but you can't put eveything on his shoulders. The divisive economic landscape of today (the crash of 2008) had more to do with deregulation and ultra liberalism promoted by Reagan and Thatcher in the eighties.
I'm afraid, as far as neo-fascism is concerned, it's been a cancer which has run through a portion of French society during the whole of the 20th Century. it's now being exacerbated by the present economic crisis. This kind of worm always crawls out of the woodwork when society becomes strained and fissured. Democrats have the task, indeed the duty, to heal and sooth these splits............the future of democracy depends on it.
Interesting to note as well, why there isn't a (visible) presence of the extreme right in the UK? (UKIP did offer them shelter for a time)...........perhaps they are now finding their home in the broader church of a larger party???