Hard or Soft Brexit?

[yogi bear up the cagire]

More unecessary scaremongering..................we'll be fine! :winking:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...esa-may-eu-referendum-exclusive-a7624706.html


http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...ammond-budget-why-didnt-mention-a7624826.html

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-davis-boris-johnson-article-50-a7625261.html

This article combined with Davis's claim that there would be no time for a meaningful vote on the deal (or no deal) by parliament, poses the question, is the UK being prepared for crashing out of the EU with no deal??? Callan I'd be interested to hear your views as I know you believe, unlike some of the Brexiters on here, that a deal will be reached because it is beneficial for both sides...........what happens if it isn't agreed????

 

[callan]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-davis-boris-johnson-article-50-a7625261.html

This article combined with Davis's claim that there would be no time for a meaningful vote on the deal (or no deal) by parliament, poses the question, is the UK being prepared for crashing out of the EU with no deal??? Callan I'd be interested to hear your views as I know you believe, unlike some of the Brexiters on here, that a deal will be reached because it is beneficial for both sides...........what happens if it isn't agreed????

I have always believed it would be folly on the part of the EU not to agree a deal, as far as 'crashing out' is concerned whilst I know there is a lot of fear regarding this, there really shouldn't be....albeit I would play negotiations out for at least 6 months with the EU before doing so.....and that will not be difficult.

In terms of the bill, the EU have been very Naive in the way they have played their cards so far....albeit it does make for the most fantastic headlines in the UK press...who are only just starting to recognise the scale of the UK's assets in the EU, not to mention the leverage that many of these assets bring.

My take is that the preferred option is still (and always should be) a deal with the EU, and I believe this will happen....but be prepared it will need political good will on both sides to allow this to happen.

So in short I would expect Davis to plan for every eventuality, be that an FTA or in the absence of that MFN.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

OK, I understand your point of view...............of course I strongly disagree with it ..........but I understand it.:smile: Soon, when the posturing gives way to the nitty gritty of negociating, we'll find out who, if anyone, holds the aces and who has a busted flush. From your comments I assume you're of the same mind as Martin Howe.........i.e. Europe owes us rather than, we owe Europe
In the end of course , it will need good will from both sides. Yet the worrying thing for me is not so much the postering but the stance/attitude, of the UK side as talks near, one which is epitomised in the first sentence of your above post.

"I have always believed it would be folly on the part of the EU not to agree a deal"

You see, this almost infers that it is the UK which will determine the kind of deal offered and it is the EU who would do well not to refuse it. As I understand it, the deal (or no deal) will be hammered out by both sides, it is then for the UK to decide whether it is anywhere near as good as what you've got at the moment and whether you accept it or walk away. Perhaps you will be proved right with your belief of negociating from a position of strength, there again maybe you and the UK are deluding yourselves.............we shall see.

 

[callan]

OK, I understand your point of view...............of course I strongly disagree with it ..........but I understand it.:smile: Soon, when the posturing gives way to the nitty gritty of negociating, we'll find out who, if anyone, holds the aces and who has a busted flush. From your comments I assume you're of the same mind as Martin Howe.........i.e. Europe owes us rather than, we owe Europe
In the end of course , it will need good will from both sides. Yet the worrying thing for me is not so much the postering but the stance/attitude, of the UK side as talks near, one which is epitomised in the first sentence of your above post.

"I have always believed it would be folly on the part of the EU not to agree a deal"

You see, this almost infers that it is the UK which will determine the kind of deal offered and it is the EU who would do well not to refuse it. As I understand it, the deal (or no deal) will be hammered out by both sides, it is then for the UK to decide whether it is anywhere near as good as what you've got at the moment and whether you accept it or walk away. Perhaps you will be proved right with your belief of negociating from a position of strength, there again maybe you and the UK are deluding yourselves.............we shall see.

Howe is offering his legal opinion, on what the UK's obligations are.
Do I agree with him....not entirely.

There are several reasons for this however most prominent are the following;

From a negotiating point of view...the more that is on the table the better.

Precedents...going forward the UK needs to be seen to be an honourable partner....not one that shirks its responsibilities and commitment...this will stand well when forging new trading arrangements and agreements with new partners....not withstanding this of course works both ways ...give the EU too much and others may expect it.

Commitments....there are mutually beneficial projects in place that I would look to carry on contributing too....Erasmus..scientific research projects etc

Assets ....Personally there are some assets we hold in the EU that I wouldn't necessarily be looking to cash in on... Our financial interest in the ECB being one.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-uk-in-worst-trading-position-of-rich-nations

A "no deal" Brexit could well leave us in a worse trading position than any other G20 nation.

 

[callan]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-uk-in-worst-trading-position-of-rich-nations

A "no deal" Brexit could well leave us in a worse trading position than any other G20 nation.

Seeing as you posted the link Barna...perhaps you would care to share with us what makes Open Britains interpretation correct?

I really would be interested to hear your views on the importance of equivalence in the absence of a any kind of trade deal with the UK....you will probably wish to focus your arguments on where the UK would not have equivalence post Brexit and the impact on the EU's current agreements should they not offer the UK the same.

I'm sure you have in depth knowledge on the subject, and aren't just posting links for the sake of it:winking:

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Seeing as you posted the link Barna...perhaps you would care to share with us what makes Open Britains interpretation correct?

I really would be interested to hear your views on the importance of equivalence in the absence of a any kind of trade deal with the UK....you will probably wish to focus your arguments on where the UK would not have equivalence post Brexit and the impact on the EU's current agreements should they not offer the UK the same.

I'm sure you have in depth knowledge on the subject, and aren't just posting links for the sake of it:winking:

Peter Walker was raising a valid point which deserves a wider audience IMO.

While I certainly don't have any in depth knowledge on the subject I am a concerned UK citizen.

 

[callan]

Peter Walker was raising a valid point which deserves a wider audience IMO.

While I certainly don't have any in depth knowledge on the subject I am a concerned UK citizen.

So with no in depth knowledge...what was valid about Peter Walkers point?

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

So with no in depth knowledge...what was valid about Peter Walkers point?

That all countries in the G20 have their own trading arrangements with the EU even if they're not actually EU members.

We can't afford to crash out of the EU on WTO rules.We need to make a trading deal with the EU like other G20 nations.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

In truth no one knows what the effects of Brexit really will be apart from that they are likely (in the short and medium term) to be negative for both the UK and the EU. The concern amongst many of us remainers, is that we are, quite possibly, being bounced towards a very hard Brexit, in 'the name of the people' (well, if you consider the percentage of those who voted.......a minority of the people). A simple question and a simple majority hides the true complexity of the path in front of us. Already offering a referendum which was fought on emotion rather than any profound understanding of the question being asked was already very questionable. If you then factor in the difficulties involved in disentanglement from the EU the choice becomes even more vague and impossible to resolve. (for the ordinary voter).
I'm not arguing against the actual result of the referendum, I'm saying the majority who voted (on both sides) didn't and really couldn't, understand the choice which was put in front of them. My emotive response to the situation was outweighed by the alternative emotive argument promising to 'reduce immigration'....'get our country back' etc. A great number of people who opted for these popular messages were those who have been left behind by a changing world and injured by the crash in 2008, that was nothing to do with them. The sad thing is that, when the UK strides towards this brave new world, free of the shackles that was the EU, what will be in it for them????? These very people are likely to be even worse off. For many who voted leave, they've signed a contract which promised the world. The danger wasn't that the conditions in small print were too little to read, it was that they weren't even shown.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39255181

Nicola Sturgeon makes a preemptive stike.

Good luck.

 

[callan]

That all countries in the G20 have their own trading arrangements with the EU even if they're not actually EU members.

We can't afford to crash out of the EU on WTO rules.We need to make a trading deal with the EU like other G20 nations.

Let's take this in stages;

Most of these trade arrangements by non EU G20 members are actually on WTO tariffs...Japan a major world wide exporter of finished goods is a prime example of this....trade talks are stalled between both parties (EU-Japan).

What Japan does have is equivalence in certain areas...meaning that non - tariff regulations are either, adopted or accepted...The US, India, China etc have similar equivalence deals.

As a soon to be former member of the EU, we (the UK) are fully compliant with EU regulations and harmonized...and in certain areas way above the EU's minimum requirements....in other words there should be NO non tariff barriers to trade.

In terms of actual cost tariffs (should no agreement be reached)... under WTO rules (these are no longer as prohibitive as they once were)...it is currently estimated that the yearly cost, would be circa 18-19 billion in duties...with the EU portion being around 13 bn.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

There's a lot of talk to the effect that once Brexit happens we'll be able to increase our trade with the Commonwealth.

We'll certainly need to as we only do about 1/4 of the trade with Commonwealth countries than we currently do with other EU countries.

Countries like Japan (which you mention in your post above) are mainly interested in trading with us as we're members of the EU,which gives them a foot in the EU market.

Once that's no longer the case you can expect their interest in trade deals with the UK to decline.Though I imagine they'll still be interested in importing Scottish whisky.

Talking of Scotland,nothing to say about post 1092?

 

[callan]

There's a lot of talk to the effect that once Brexit happens we'll be able to increase our trade with the Commonwealth.

We'll certainly need to as we only do about 1/4 of the trade with Commonwealth countries than we currently do with other EU countries.

Countries like Japan (which you mention in your post above) are mainly interested in trading with us as we're members of the EU,which gives them a foot in the EU market.

Once that's no longer the case you can expect their interest in trade deals with the UK to decline.Though I imagine they'll still be interested in importing Scottish whisky.

Talking of Scotland,nothing to say about post 1092?

Once Brexit happens we will be able to determine trade deals unencumbered by the EU with whoever we want, Commonwealth or otherwise.

In terms of Japanese trade I would expect them to lobby the EU fairly strongly to give the UK good access to the single market, they have already lobbied the UK....and I'm pretty sure that contrary to your assertion that their interest in the UK market will increase, not diminish.

As for post 1092,...good to see Corbyn getting his lines right:winking:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...tion-labour-row-nicola-sturgeon-a7626651.html

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Bloody bunch of paper tigers..............

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...urged-stand-up-zealots-tory-mps-a7626961.html

 

[mattitouk]

Regardless of anyone's opinion on the outcome, I'm personally pleased to see that the bill has finally been passed, It was really starting to bore me seeing the same old stuff in the news everyday.

I know politicians are known for dragging out a debate without giving a definite answer or commitment, but blimey...they have excelled themselves this time!... talk about dragging something out. It feels longer than a lifetime since Brexit polling day.

Only a quick scribble required now by her Maj, then we can finally trigger article 50 by the end of the month, and hopefully and finally start to get on with what ever we are supposed to be getting on with & we can hopefully close this thread before it reaches 300 pages.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Regardless of anyone's opinion on the outcome, I'm personally pleased to see that the bill has finally been passed, It was really starting to bore me seeing the same old stuff in the news everyday.

I know politicians are known for dragging out a debate without giving a definite answer or commitment, but blimey...they have excelled themselves this time!... talk about dragging something out. It feels longer than a lifetime since Brexit polling day.

Only a quick scribble required now by her Maj, then we can finally trigger article 50 by the end of the month, and hopefully and finally start to get on with what ever we are supposed to be getting on with & we can hopefully close this thread before it reaches 300 pages.

Naaaa! this will run and run..........only chance you've got is, if it is superceded by a thread called 'Hard or Very Hard Brexit' :smile:

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ur-the-uk-eu-effort-to-forge-brexit-consensus

Conservative Central Office has released an itinerary of the tour........

April 1st North Norfolk
April 2nd Dover
April 3rd Torbay
april 5th Isle of White
April 6th Thanet
April 7th Knowsley
April 8th Stevenage
April 9th Redcar
April 10th Sunderland
April 11th Peterborough
April 12th Blackpool
April 13th Warrington
April 14th Cumbria.
April 15th Southend-on-Sea

 

[MK Shrimper]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ur-the-uk-eu-effort-to-forge-brexit-consensus

Conservative Central Office has released an itinerary of the tour........

April 1st North Norfolk
April 2nd Dover
April 3rd Torbay
april 5th Isle of White
April 6th Thanet
April 7th Knowsley
April 8th Stevenage
April 9th Redcar
April 10th Sunderland
April 11th Peterborough
April 12th Blackpool
April 13th Warrington
April 14th Cumbria.
April 15th Southend-on-Sea

Oh that's a nice and balanced itenarary. :facepalm: