Hard or Soft Brexit?

[Tangled up in Blue]

It's a valid point though (maybe not the 'we're doomed' bit, but the rest is), the whole argument against Brexit is that we won't have the good trade deals we currently have, those trade deals will still be around for at least a year. Whilst we still have those deals in place only businesses panicking and leaving (which would be an expensive gamble whilst we don't know what will happen) could really cause issues since we can still trade as we have done for now. Until we actually leave we won't know what the economy will look like because we won't know what our trade agreements will be, maybe it will be good maybe it won't but the constant bickering from both sides about how the economy proves Brexit is good/bad is pretty irrelevant, the truth is no one really knows how this will play out.

No,it's not.

What we do know is that the EU won't give us a better deal outside Europe than we already get inside.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Yup, the economy and the UK in general went into free fall post Brexit. Just as was predicted in the months leading up to the referendum.

http://news.sky.com/story/uk-ends-2016-with-better-than-expected-economic-growth-10743111

Que howls of 'we haven't even started yet, you wait. We're all dooooomed' :winking:

Well, it certainly proves those predicting armagheddon following a 'leave' vote were wrong. One can only believe Osborne must of been on one of his 'trips,' when he made that assertion. :smile:
I do think you need to wait and see a bit, I'm sure some people were comforted by the 'phoney war' period in '39. Whatever happens I believe Brexit will be detrimental, in the short and medium term to both Europe and the UK. There is now the added ingredient of a Trump presidency and the prospect of protectionism looming over any trade deals the 'newly free' UK may seek to make. The future may be uncertain but it certainly ain't boring.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Osborne must certainly have left a little of what he was on for May! :winking:

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/26/politics/theresa-may-republican-retreat-visit-speech/index.html

 

[Bielzibubz]

It's a valid point though (maybe not the 'we're doomed' bit, but the rest is), the whole argument against Brexit is that we won't have the good trade deals we currently have, those trade deals will still be around for at least a year. Whilst we still have those deals in place only businesses panicking and leaving (which would be an expensive gamble whilst we don't know what will happen) could really cause issues since we can still trade as we have done for now. Until we actually leave we won't know what the economy will look like because we won't know what our trade agreements will be, maybe it will be good maybe it won't but the constant bickering from both sides about how the economy proves Brexit is good/bad is pretty irrelevant, the truth is no one really knows how this will play out.

That's exactly the point I was making in my attempted quip. We just don't know. I believe we'll be better off. That's just me though. Now, if someone shouts 'We're doooomed, maybe' or 'I believe we'll be dooomed' I wouldn't have an argument. What I do have an argument with is being told by others supposedly better informed and better educated than me that we will be, end of, fact. We know who they are on here.

And the reason i posted up the link in the first place was to highlight the fact the UK economy hasn't gone into immediate (8 moths nearly) free fall as predicted by 'the experts' and some on here. Cheap shot I know but I'm just carrying on the theme of this thread :smile:

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

That's exactly the point I was making in my attempted quip. We just don't know. I believe we'll be better off. That's just me though. Now, if someone shouts 'We're doooomed, maybe' or 'I believe we'll be dooomed' I wouldn't have an argument. What I do have an argument with is being told by others supposedly better informed and better educated than me that we will be, end of, fact. We know who they are on here.

And the reason i posted up the link in the first place was to highlight the fact the UK economy hasn't gone into immediate (8 moths nearly) free fall as predicted by 'the experts' and some on here. Cheap shot I know but I'm just carrying on the theme of this thread :smile:

this eats away at the very fabric of society.....

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Osborne must certainly have left a little of what he was on for May! :winking:

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/26/politics/theresa-may-republican-retreat-visit-speech/index.html

Trump (and to an extent Farage) have shown you can say any old ***** in the US and get away with it so she probably wants to have a little go on that (considering she never actually dares to say anything in the UK).

 

[londonblue]

That's exactly the point I was making in my attempted quip. We just don't know. I believe we'll be better off. That's just me though. Now, if someone shouts 'We're doooomed, maybe' or 'I believe we'll be dooomed' I wouldn't have an argument. What I do have an argument with is being told by others supposedly better informed and better educated than me that we will be, end of, fact. We know who they are on here.

And the reason i posted up the link in the first place was to highlight the fact the UK economy hasn't gone into immediate (8 moths nearly) free fall as predicted by 'the experts' and some on here. Cheap shot I know but I'm just carrying on the theme of this thread :smile:

For clarity, my point was that people were looking too short term, both leave and remain. This isn't a decision that should have been taken about immigration levels now, it shouldn't have been made about the economy now (especially as the world is still struggling to recover from its worst ever recession). This is a decision that will be felt for the next, say 100 years. I never once said the economy was doomed the minute we leave, and I don't remember hearing too many people say that. The only people I heard say that were leavers who were ridiculing remainers.

The effect won't be felt properly until the whole process has been completed, and that might be 10 years. I also said that, by that time it will be almost impossible to definitively say whether or not it was a good or bad decision because there are too many external variables that people will use to prove their point one way or the other.

For me it was a bad decision, but one we have to live with.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

There would appear to be two main reasons why the UK economy did better than expected after Brexit in 2016.

The first was the Bank of England actually doing it's job and implementing Q/E.

The second was strong consumer spending in the run up to Xmas.

Forecasts for the UK economy's performance in 2017 are less good than in 2016 (for a number of reasons,including the uncertainty around Brexit).

We should also factor in where we are in the business cycle.It's been 8 years or so since the last recession in 2008.Therefore, most economists, (even without taking into account the uncertainty over Brexit), would be anticipating a recession in the UK at some time within the next two years.

Given that a consumer spending boom is unsustainable in the long or medium term and the B/E can't really cut interest rates any futher, a future recession in the UK begins to look increasingly likely, especially given the 2016 CPI rate of 1.6 in the UK (very similar to Spain's 1.5), which will inevitably lead to higher wage/salary claims in 2017,when workers (and their unions) try and catch up with this increase in prices.

 

[Gremlin]

Forecasts for the UK economy's performance in 2017 are less good than in 2016.

Forecasts from the same people that forecasted a post-Brexit lull?

 

[rigsby]

There would appear to be two main reasons why the UK economy did better than expected after Brexit in 2016.

The first was the Bank of England actually doing it's job and implementing Q/E.

The second was strong consumer spending in the run up to Xmas.

Forecasts for the UK economy's performance in 2017 are less good than in 2016 (for a number of reasons,including the uncertainty around Brexit).

We should also factor in where we are in the business cycle.It's been 8 years or so since the last recession in 2008.Therefore, most economists, (even without taking into account the uncertainty over Brexit), would be anticipating a recession in the UK at some time within the next two years.

Given that a consumer spending boom is unsustainable in the long or medium term and the B/E can't really cut interest rates any futher, a future recession in the UK begins to look increasingly likely, especially given the 2016 CPI rate of 1.6 in the UK (very similar to Spain's 1.5), which will inevitably lead to higher wage/salary claims in 2017,when workers (and their unions) try and catch up with this increase in prices.

I can tell you left Britain in the 1980's.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Forecasts from the same people that forecasted a post-Brexit lull?

Yup.The usual suspects.Not Boy George this time, though.:winking:

I can tell you left Britain in the 1980's.

In 1978 actually.:winking:

(Tbf,I did come back for a year in 80/1 but one year of Thatcher was another to send me scuttling back to the EU,where I've been based ever since).

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Another future benefit of leaving the EU. Bye bye the NHS, as you have known it. Choose your private health scheme now?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...hs-us-trade-deal-brexit-torture-a7548156.html

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

The special relationship?


https://www.theguardian.com/comment...e-bell-uk-us-theresa-may-donald-trump-cartoon

Dave Brown's cartoon in the Independent was a little more subtile..........but made the same point!

http://www.independent.co.uk/#gallery

Doesn't copy the cartoon, so you have to scroll down to see it.

 

[Swiss Tony]

Surely the object is not to stop article 50 from being invoked? (although it may be our wish:smile:), it is to obtain guarantees that when a deal is (or is not) reached it can be put before the British people. At the moment the electorate have signed a blank cheque, it is important for them to have the chance to reflect again when the full sum of withdrawal is written in.

Gentlemen try not to concern yourselfs with the UK's future,after all i.m sure there's many problems in your adopted countries to be discussing.Brexit is here to stay and we will sail HMS uk alone and free.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Gentlemen try not to concern yourselfs with the UK's future,after all i.m sure there's many problems in your adopted countries to be discussing.Brexit is here to stay and we will sail HMS uk alone and free.

You clearly didn't see QT last night, where a 60 (ish) year old bloke complained to the panel that he'd had to pay 60 quid recently for a simple extraction with a NHS dentist.I don't pay anything like that for much more complicated dental work in France!

Btw,his point was that privatisation in the NHS has already started and we'd all better get used to it.He was right.

 

[londonblue]

(Tbf,I did come back for a year in 80/1 but one year of Thatcher was another to send me scuttling back to the EU,where I've been based ever since).

So Thatcher wasn't all bad then? :winking:

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

So Thatcher wasn't all bad then? :winking:

Ha! I'd like to blame my own personal Brexit on her but that would be stretching the truth a little.:winking:

 

[rigsby]

You clearly didn't see QT last night, where a 60 (ish) year old bloke complained to the panel that he'd had to pay 60 quid recently for a simple extraction with a NHS dentist.I don't pay anything like that for much more complicated dental work in France!

Btw,his point was that privatisation in the NHS has already started and we'd all better get used to it.He was right.

Its been like it for years. long before even Phoney Tony become PM in 1997.

That's why I have had Denplan for about 20+ years and it only costs £22.50 per month. I get the best dentist and no cheap NHS materials if they do any work. Some of us really do value our health and don't mind paying for it.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Gentlemen try not to concern yourselfs with the UK's future,after all i.m sure there's many problems in your adopted countries to be discussing.Brexit is here to stay and we will sail HMS uk alone and free.

.............under Ronald's protective wing?

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Its been like it for years. long before even Phoney Tony become PM in 1997.

That's why I have had Denplan for about 20+ years and it only costs £22.50 per month. I get the best dentist and no cheap NHS materials if they do any work. Some of us really do value our health and don't mind paying for it.

This of course is very conscientious on your part.............so, you're already giving up on the NHS? By the way, I'd be surprised if you got that much for £22.50 a month.
Anyway, a socialist friend of mine who lives near Folkestone, knows that she will soon be in need of a second hip replacement and has consequently taken out private health insurance which will cover her for this operation (from what I read today, in her area, she would have to be in desperate pain in order for it to be done on the NHS), and I can understand her reasoning.
From what I've heard, private medicine is great for this kind of procedure, it allows you to jump the queue or receive treatment no longer available on the NHS. I think the problem comes if, God forbid, you contract a serious illness, which requires long term and probably expensive care. There's no profit in this kind of medicine and private companies are consequently far less enthusiastic for your custom.