Hard or Soft Brexit?

[Tangled up in Blue]

Good, bad and/or indifferent. This site has them all. Post Brexit there will be winners and there will be losers, of that there is no doubt. There will be many uncertainties as we go down this road and that will cause all kind of speculation and debate, again, that's not in doubt. Compromise after compromise will be made on both sides, you can be sure of that. It's not in anyone's interest to be belligerent and bullish. There will be cart loads of spin, waffle and political double talk for us all to chew over for months and moths (get's the post count up I suppose) There will be posturing and Sabre rattling from all and sundry for months (it's started already) and there may even be one or two truths told along the way.

We'll get all that and more but one thing I'm absolutely certain of. Germany (and others) will continue to export shed loads of cars here to the UK and we'll continue to buy them in shed loads (I mean, come on, when your renewing the lease/personal finance agreement on that nice shiny new Merc are you seriously going to worry about another £700.00 on the ticket price? no, and neither would I) The French will continue to export all that French stuff they send us (can't think of anything tangible right now) and we'll continue to send them our shyte in return. The pound will fluctuate up and down at the merest hint of the next snippet of good or bad news and the FTSE will go up and down according to how much of the wealth is being distributed and to whom. Oh, and the financial services sector and all that goes with it will continue to have it's European heart right here in London (the annual £3b coming in from the EU to the UK and £96b going out from the UK to the EU will see to that)

I suppose what I'm trying to say is. THE UK WON'T SINK. We will continue to be a major player on the worlds stage and we'll continue to be and influential, global trading power who will still be able to mix it with the big boys. Stop stressing about it so much and get on with life. You Know, it's that thing with BIG up's and some equally BIG down's in it. :winking:

PS.....Lurrrve the ignore button :smile:

There will only be one loser from Brexit.And it won't be the remaining 27 EU countries.

 

[callan]

There will only be one loser from Brexit.And it won't be the remaining 27 EU countries.

What benefits do you see for the remaining 27, once the UK leaves?

 

[southendkid]

There will only be one loser from Brexit.And it won't be the remaining 27 EU countries.

Extremely unlikely, both us and the EU will probably suffer in the short term.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

What benefits do you see for the remaining 27, once the UK leaves?

They'll be rid of a member state which wanted all the advantages of membership but none of the disadvantages.:winking:

 

[mrsblue]

There will only be one loser from Brexit.And it won't be the remaining 27 EU countries.

The EU,

Over 20 million umemployed.
Greece bankrupt
Italy and Spain in disarray
Portugal under severe pressure
Germany under pressure
Schengan in meltdown

The only loser will be the 27

 

[callan]

The EU,

Over 20 million umemployed.
Greece bankrupt
Italy and Spain in disarray
Portugal under severe pressure
Germany under pressure
Schengan in meltdown

The only loser will be the 27

And of course once we leave they will be able to pay more towards all of the above :happy:

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

The 28 will all be losers, who the hell believes there are going to be any winners from the mess Brexit is going to cause? IMHO this is going to drag on for nearly a decade. Anyone who believes it will all be done and dusted in two years time is not living on this planet. The UK may well have the strength recover and prosper in the long term but I wonder whether that adaptation will leave us with a United Kingdom (IF it remains united) that we can recognise and feel confortable with. Those who believe some kind of return to the halcyon days of the fifties are likely to be very disappointed. As far as Europe goes, who knows............one can only hope for the best whilst fearing the worst. Am I being too optimistic?

 

[mrsblue]

The 28 will all be losers, who the hell believes there are going to be any winners from the mess Brexit is going to cause? IMHO this is going to drag on for nearly a decade. Anyone who believes it will all be done and dusted in two years time is not living on this planet. The UK may well have the strength recover and prosper in the long term but I wonder whether that adaptation will leave us with a United Kingdom (IF it remains united) that we can recognise and feel confortable with. Those who believe some kind of return to the halcyon days of the fifties are likely to be very disappointed. As far as Europe goes, who knows............one can only hope for the best whilst fearing the worst. Am I being too optimistic?

Trump demands every EU member pay their full share of NATO....which is fair and proper ...yet only 4 maybe 5 countries including us pay the 0.7% of GDP....ouch that will hurt many stumping up their slice.

You are being optimistic IMO.

 

[mrsblue]

And of course once we leave they will be able to pay more towards all of the above :happy:

Yippee !

12 billion quid to find plus 0.7 for defence=somebody is paying somewhere:smile:

 

[Gremlin]

They'll be rid of a member state which wanted all the advantages of membership but none of the disadvantages.

Well I hope whoever that is is thoroughly ashamed of themselves for wanting good things for their people and not bad things.

Next you'll be telling me they're looking to see whether there's another way of getting those good things! I mean, come on, there simply cannot be one can there?

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

The EU,

Over 20 million umemployed.
Greece bankrupt
Italy and Spain in disarray
Portugal under severe pressure
Germany under pressure
Schengan in meltdown

The only loser will be the 27

Spain is certainly not in "disarray" It's currently experiencing growth of 3% .(Granted unemployment is too high.Especially for young people).

There will be a price to pay for Brexit that the UK will have to stump up for.

Yogi is quite right to say that it will take more than two years to conclude a deal.5 to 7 years seems more likely.Meanwhile WTO rules will apply to imports/exports with a probable 10% tariff.

 

[mrsblue]

Spain is certainly not in "disarray" It's currently experiencing growth of 3% .(Granted unemployment is too high.Especially for young people).

There will be a price to pay for Brexit that the UK will have to stump up for.

Yogi is quite right to say that it will take more than two years to conclude a deal.5 to 7 years seems more likely.Meanwhile WTO rules will apply to imports/exports with a probable 10% tariff.

Disarray or not.....You decide !

National debt......1.5 trillion
Debt to GDP........100%
Unemployed........19%
Under 25s...........50%

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Disarray or not.....You decide !

National debt......1.5 trillion
Debt to GDP........100%
Unemployed........19%
Under 25s...........50%

You'll remember the UK's debt to GDP ratio was 80% not so long ago.I'm no friend of the PP (Popular Party) but I'd say they're managing Spain's financial affairs reasonably well,atm.

I'd already accepted that Spain's unemmpolyment figures (especially for youth employment are far too high).

What's the source of your statistics btw?

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

"At the moment the people in the UK are in denial. The current economic situation is not as bad as was predicted and they live in hope. But as the currency depreciates, and inflation will be the driving force, this will lead to declining living standards."
“This is going to take some time, but when it does happen they’ll realise that they are earning less than before because wages won’t rise as fast as the cost of living."


https://www.theguardian.com/busines...nt-last-and-donald-trump-is-would-be-dictator

George Soros.You'll remember he made a lot of money out of John Major's government crashing out of the ERM back in the 90's.

 

[southendkid]

The EU,

Over 20 million umemployed.
Greece bankrupt
Italy and Spain in disarray
Portugal under severe pressure
Germany under pressure
Schengan in meltdown

The only loser will be the 27

All you've done is say EU countries will lose out (which no one is disputing), nothing you've said there suggests we won't also lose out alongside them.

 

[rigsby]

You'll remember the UK's debt to GDP ratio was 80% not so long ago.I'm no friend of the PP (Popular Party) but I'd say they're managing Spain's financial affairs reasonably well,atm.

I'd already accepted that Spain's unemmpolyment figures (especially for youth employment are far too high).

What's the source of your statistics btw?

The question which is less likely to be answered honestly than any other, award......Goes to Tangled.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

The question which is less likely to be answered honestly than any other, award......Goes to Tangled.

That's because I alwys sourcde my quotes or opinions,unlike some other posters I could mention.:winking:

 

[mrsblue]

All you've done is say EU countries will lose out (which no one is disputing), nothing you've said there suggests we won't also lose out alongside them.

When the UK exits from the EU madhouse....we can trade with the likes of India...Oz...USA...to name just 3....these deals will be on our terms without meddling from the EU.....plus we instantly save 12/15 billion from not giving the EU subsidy .

We can close our borders and only invite those who would enhance the UK....highly skilled people in other words.

Would be handy to bugger off Scotland thus saving another 10 billion ,but that's another story.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

When the UK exits from the EU madhouse....we can trade with the likes of India...Oz...USA...to name just 3....these deals will be on our terms without meddling from the EU.....plus we instantly save 12/15 billion from not giving the EU subsidy .

Even Philip Hammond has admitted we'll probably be paying into the EU after we've formally left.

We can close our borders and only invite those who would enhance the UK....highly skilled people in other words.

Would be handy to bugger off Scotland thus saving another 10 billion ,but that's another story.

As you're no doubt aware,the UK currently takes in more skilled labour from outside the EU than inside.

Interestingly, (and anecdotal I know) but I'm currently teaching a Health Lecturer at the UIC here.She tells me that her nursing students and doctors (with good English skills like her) are currently looking for jobs in Australia,Canada etc rather than the UK because wages there are low in comparison.

So that trend looks likely to continue.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

When the UK exits from the EU madhouse....we can trade with the likes of India...Oz...USA...to name just 3....these deals will be on our terms without meddling from the EU.....plus we instantly save 12/15 billion from not giving the EU subsidy .

We can close our borders and only invite those who would enhance the UK....highly skilled people in other words.

Would be handy to bugger off Scotland thus saving another 10 billion ,but that's another story.

Like the USA with a TTIP deal...........(BEWARE THE TROJAN HORSE!)............With that, you'll soon find that efforts to 'get you country back' would end up in courts, being sued by multinationals and with the great likelihood of losing.