Brexit negotiations thread

[Tangled up in Blue]

well...... there has to be a border. The idea of a virtual (or sea) border can't work. By not having a border, the UK would be giving Favoured Nation Status to Ireland and therefore put the Irish ahead of the EU and, crucially, the US. At the point we say "no border" the likelihood is that the US make official representations to the WTO. And then it gets really complicated.

Do you have any ideas yourself as to a solution? (I certainly don't).

 

[Lord Football]

Do you have any ideas yourself as to a solution? (I certainly don't).

Other than there being a border, with customs and immigrations checks? Nope.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Are we allowed to quote articles anymore?..............or is it just ones from the Guardian that are banned? :smile: I thought this from Skynews really illustrated the complexities, complications and intruiging possible conflicts of interest, concerning the Irish question after Brexit.

http://news.sky.com/story/the-transatlantic-spat-at-the-heart-of-the-brexit-trade-debate-11042268

 

[Lord Football]

Are we allowed to quote articles anymore?..............or is it just ones from the Guardian that are banned? :smile: I thought this from Skynews really illustrated the complexities, complications and intruiging possible conflicts of interest, concerning the Irish question after Brexit.

http://news.sky.com/story/the-transatlantic-spat-at-the-heart-of-the-brexit-trade-debate-11042268

Yeah, so long as there is a comment or two to go with it.


This essentially covers something called "airworthiness", and I suspect its not something anyone has heard of before. Like many things that are coming out of the woodwork, its quite an important issue for a certain sector of UK business.

It's just another example that highlights the real task is how we are going to unweave ourselves from 46 years worth of international trade agreements, rules and regulations that have worked perfectly well in that time and replace them with something that does exactly the same but without the agreements and without detriment to the trade.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Reading between the isobars, Hurricane May, due to hit Florence on Friday, being downgraded to a possible gale or even just a breezy day?

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Reading between the isobars, Hurricane May, due to hit Florence on Friday, being downgraded to a possible gale or even just a breezy day?

Ha! Wait and see.:winking:

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

It will of course be interesting to see what comes from this much heralded speech (now just an update?). I think the problems she faces in trying to square the circle are well laid out here.

https://jonworth.eu/mays-florence-speech-impossible-balancing-act/

I'll shed a tear for dear Theresa's difficulties........................when I find the time. :smile:

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Personally I've never heard article 127 (the A127.....yes!:smile:) Would be interested on the views of others , as to whether this could prove as significant as this article suggests?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...t-eu-eea-theresa-may-article-50-a7955806.html

Apart from the advances, or lack of advances, with Brexit there is, as I think Lord Football said, always something unexpected and unforseen ready to crawl out of the Brexit woodwork which can hinder, if not threaten, its progress.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

http://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/244...es-from-free-movement-of-labour-in-the-eu.pdf

Thought this was an interesting article on why the UK has been one of the main beneficiaries from the free movement of labour in the EU.

(Article written by our younger daughter's ex-Lecturer in Sciences Po,Paris).

 

[londonblue]

Personally I've never heard article 127 (the A127.....yes!:smile:) Would be interested on the views of others , as to whether this could prove as significant as this article suggests?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...t-eu-eea-theresa-may-article-50-a7955806.html

Apart from the advances, or lack of advances, with Brexit there is, as I think Lord Football said, always something unexpected and unforseen ready to crawl out of the Brexit woodwork which can hinder, if not threaten, its progress.

The law of unintended consequences.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

Some really technical stuff coming out today.

Firstly, May is in Canada talking about a post Brexit Trade deal. Huzzah...... Sadly not. The Canadian Free Trade Deal (CETA) was agreed late last year with an implementation date in February. It's been delayed in the Canadian Parliament for several months and I believe it is going to live on Friday. It took seven years to negotiate, and whilst it was held up slightly by the Belgians, it is a good indication of just how long these things take. But the point of course is that the day before we leave we will have free trade with Canada, the day after we leave we wont. So we lose something we had.

The second crunch issue is some news about the Irish land border. This going to be really difficult to resolve without setting off tension. The ROI must have a border, and the UK will be under pressure to put something into place by the WTO. (I wonder how longer some Farage type character thinks its a good idea to leave that as well so we can control our borders!!). Of course if you have a border, you have smugglers. And there is now a palpable that this will increase levels of criminality, increase the movement of illicit goods and, if we don't do it properly, a gateway into the UK from illegal immigrants (of course we don't have a le Touquet type of agreement with ROI).

And then we have the car manufacturers (who have been quite vocal behind the scenes), are now making significant public noises about the effect on their industry and the lake of direction. The really difficult thinking in this respect comes down to Rules of Origin and that is going to have a massive effect on any trade deal we will sign in the future (just because a car is made in Sunderland, doesn't mean its British).

Finally, its becoming clearer by the day that certain politicians are viewing Brexit as a means to their personal ends. Given many people seem to have voted to give the political class a slap - that's backfired and its made the political in-fighting worse.

If it had a direction wouldn't it be a river?:unsure:

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Personally I've never heard article 127 (the A127.....yes!:smile:) Would be interested on the views of others , as to whether this could prove as significant as this article suggests?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...t-eu-eea-theresa-may-article-50-a7955806.html

Apart from the advances, or lack of advances, with Brexit there is, as I think Lord Football said, always something unexpected and unforseen ready to crawl out of the Brexit woodwork which can hinder, if not threaten, its progress.

My bet,FWIW,is that Article 127 will probably end up in Court (just like the EU (withdrawal ) bill did before it can be voted on by Parliament.

 

[Lord Football]

My bet,FWIW,is that Article 127 will probably end up in Court (just like the EU (withdrawal ) bill did before it can be voted on by Parliament.

Clutching at straws...... Article 50 trumps Article 127. Article 127 is essentially aimed at EFTA only members, not members of the EU.

HOWEVER, Article 50 isn't all it is made out to be, it only really covers the notification of leaving the EU not actually leaving.

But, as with all these things, you can make different legal interpretations but its only when tested in court do you get your answers.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Well, it looks as though, for the moment, the government has managed to paper over the cracks (the EU couldn't have done a better job itself!:winking:) and an agreement appears to have been made on the principle of payments to the EU. If that is indeed revealed tomorrow, we have made some progress. Whether it can all be held together when and if an actual sum is negociated and agreed is another matter.

 

[Gremlin]

Early signs of an outbreak of common sense on the continent.

"Two interesting quotes on Newsnight suggesting that at least some Europeans are pushing Barnier and the Commission to take a more reasonable negotiating stance."

https://order-order.com/2017/09/21/europeans-pushing-barnier-for-more-sensible-stance/

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Early signs of an outbreak of common sense on the continent.

"Two interesting quotes on Newsnight suggesting that at least some Europeans are pushing Barnier and the Commission to take a more reasonable negotiating stance."

https://order-order.com/2017/09/21/europeans-pushing-barnier-for-more-sensible-stance/

I fear there is not much sign of it on the UK side of the Channel! As I've stated before, I'm a UK citizen living in Europe and nearly totally dependent on a strong (healthy) pound to provide my pension and reliant on a solution to UK nationals in Europe and EU nationals in the UK being arranged, for my future security. It's in my interest that an agreement is sorted out. I've waited with some anticipation (if not much hope) that May's speech in Florence would unblock the situation. This is already a little bizarre because, from what I remember, the government has been claiming the talks are going very well! Of course I will wait until the text is released before making any judgement.............yet the omens are not looking particularly good.
For the moment, May appears to have papered over the cracks in her government............but at what cost? The Guardian is already suggesting this 'BIG speech' could now turn out to be a damp squib. When I hear May calling for EU leaders to be more "imaginative and creative," what does that actually mean? To me it sounds like a call to the EU to give us what we want (a deal as good as the one we have at the moment but outside the EU) and to dress it up such a way that no one will notice. From radio 4 this morning they were suggesting that she will offer nothing new on citizens rights, whilst on the divorce settlement, what??? Perhaps I'm wrong but the monies likely to be offered are concerning our continued access to the free market during the transitional period..........this is nothing to do with the payment of a divorce bill, is it? So, it looks very much like May will offer little new which, instead of moving things forward, is likely to exacerbate the frustration and annoyance of EU leaders, increasing their fears and lowering their belief (already not very high) that May and her administration have the ability to negociate a deal.
I hope I'm wrong but I certainly wouldn't put my faith (nor my money) on cracks appearing on the EU negociating side, sufficient to change the views which nave been clearly laid out and adhered to up to now. In the end, May's speech may be more interesting for what DOSEN'T say..............meanwhile the clock is ticking away.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I fear there is not much sign of it on the UK side of the Channel! As I've stated before, I'm a UK citizen living in Europe and nearly totally dependent on a strong (healthy) pound to provide my pension and reliant on a solution to UK nationals in Europe and EU nationals in the UK being arranged, for my future security. It's in my interest that an agreement is sorted out. I've waited with some anticipation (if not much hope) that May's speech in Florence would unblock the situation. This is already a little bizarre because, from what I remember, the government has been claiming the talks are going very well! Of course I will wait until the text is released before making any judgement.............yet the omens are not looking particularly good.
For the moment, May appears to have papered over the cracks in her government............but at what cost? The Guardian is already suggesting this 'BIG speech' could now turn out to be a damp squib. When I hear May calling for EU leaders to be more "imaginative and creative," what does that actually mean? To me it sounds like a call to the EU to give us what we want (a deal as good as the one we have at the moment but outside the EU) and to dress it up such a way that no one will notice. From radio 4 this morning they were suggesting that she will offer nothing new on citizens rights, whilst on the divorce settlement, what??? Perhaps I'm wrong but the monies likely to be offered are concerning our continued access to the free market during the transitional period..........this is nothing to do with the payment of a divorce bill, is it? So, it looks very much like May will offer little new which, instead of moving things forward, is likely to exacerbate the frustration and annoyance of EU leaders, increasing their fears and lowering their belief (already not very high) that May and her administration have the ability to negociate a deal.
I hope I'm wrong but I certainly wouldn't put my faith (nor my money) on cracks appearing on the EU negociating side, sufficient to change the views which nave been clearly laid out and adhered to up to now. In the end, May's speech may be more interesting for what DOSEN'T say..............meanwhile the clock is ticking away.

Sorry Yogi.I noticed the pound began to fall (slightly) against the euro even before the Maybot spoke today.Good news for Euro Brits visiting next weekend.:smile:

"2h ago
09:42
Pound dips against euro ahead of May's speech

Traders are in cautious mood ahead of Theresa May’s crucial speech this afternoon.

The pound is now down 0.5% against the euro at €1.1312. Meanwhile earlier gains against the dollar have evaporated, with the pound down just a touch by 0.03% at $1.3573.

Analysts are expecting potentially big moves in the pound - in either direction - later in the trading session, once May’s speech is underway and reaction among EU officials becomes clear."

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

SO, after all that..........a two-year transitional period, which will lead to what? Something creative and imaginative which is not yet describable nor definable (a figment of May's imagination?) but which ends up with the UK getting a good deal. Well, that's clear then! :smile:

 

[THE SEVENTIES NORTH BANK]

Dear oh dear. So for two years after we are technically out, we will still be in. We also will be paying 51 Billion minimum say the experts into the EU budget. They also said on the radio. and they understand this stuff far better than me, that it's like a football team that is losing getting half an hour extra time, but paying the maximum for the privilege. She promised us a good deal. Pathetic and disgraceful.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

SO, after all that..........a two-year transitional period, which will lead to what? Something creative and imaginative which is not yet describable nor definable (a figment of May's imagination?) but which ends up with the UK getting a good deal. Well, that's clear then! :smile:

Look on the bright side-we'll be in the EU until at least 2021-five years after the Brexit vote.That's if our EU masters agree to the deal,of course.:winking: