Brexit negotiations thread

[Tangled up in Blue]

Funnily enough, one of my young French relatives has just swung an extremely well-paid job in Luxembourg (he's an IT security specialist).Mum's English,Dad's French.I believe he's very happy with his status as an EU citizen.

Does he live in Luxemberg or is he like most that work and pay low taxes there; that he lives in France, uses French schools and hospitals etc but doesn't "pay" for them from his taxes on earnings?

He'll be living in Luxembourg from next week.His original idea was to buy a place there but found that too expensive (even on his earnings)!

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Right back on topic.......

I see BoJo is playing the "I wanna be the leader" game again with his statement about funding the NHS.

The ONS (who are neutral) say the figures do not bear scrutiny and no one seems to be factoring in the costs of additional staff (which were in the Guardian link I posted but since deleted) or replacing the funding arrangements of EU grants.

With 18 months until Brexit Day One, we seem to be going backwards and rehashing old (and discredited) arguments, making no tangible progress in negotiations and certainly not providing business with the information they need to ensure they can operate European trade when the day comes.

Interesting that there was some comment in today's Observer that he was making an obvious leadership attempt and May should sack him.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

Interesting that there was some comment in today's Observer that he was making an obvious leadership attempt and May should sack him.

Sack him? Boris wrote what people expected him to write & May wolud have to be deaf, dumb, stupid and guileless not to have been able to guess the content.
The timing of Boris's piece, a few days before May's address suggests some collusion and that it was the "warm up" act.
However May might be hoping that some Euros accept it all at face value and then see her as an acceptable moderate etc.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

What a bloody mess! For me the lack of progress in negociations is nothing to do with stubborness, intransigence or inflexibility from one side or the other. The frustration from this side of the Channel is almost palpable. Fifteen months after the referendum and well into negociations and no one is any the wiser concerning the British strategy for Brexit. Brexit may mean Brexit but after this amount of time surely we should have some understanding of what that actually means? The biggest problem appears to be, that not only were the British electorate nearly equally divided by the issue but the main political parties and even commerce and industry are still, even now, hopelessly divided on the issue. When Cameron called for the vote in June last year I wonder whether it entered into his little head, anything apart from sparing the Conservative Party some humiliation (and loss of power) due to the threat of UKIP. Further down the line his arrogance in not calling for a 60/70% vote to make such an important constitutional change, has landed not only the Conservative Party but the whole country the mess we find it today. It seems as though we have to wait until the internal squabbles of the Tory party are sorted until we can make any sense of the government's position. Then, even if May carries the day, the kind of 'soft' Brexit 'fudge' which may well ensue will lead large swathes of voters to believe they have been deceived............this was NOT the Brexit they voted for. The Labour party achieved the impossible in the last election, managing to face both ways on the issue of Brexit. You get the impression that Corbyn holds his new softer Brexit views 'contre coeur' and even accounting for that, when his position is finally defined it may please the Labour voters of Islington...........but rather less the masses of Brexit voting Labour voters up north.
Even commerce and industry aren't facing the same way. Most are looking on with great concern about the future, meanwhile the likes of Bamford, Martin and Dyson appear to relish the prospect of a hard Brexit.
Here in France is little me, trying to make sense of this turmoil and not stress myself too much over my very future (as a soon to be foreign national). Surviving on a pension, the majority being paid in sterling, which has seen a 20% drop in its value over the past months with the tiny relief of a recent small rise ( temporarily? due to the threat of a rise in UK interest rates) As I said at the start, WHAT A BLOODY MESS!

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Sack him? Boris wrote what people expected him to write & May wolud have to be deaf, dumb, stupid and guileless not to have been able to guess the content.
The timing of Boris's piece, a few days before May's address suggests some collusion and that it was the "warm up" act.
However May might be hoping that some Euros accept it all at face value and then see her as an acceptable moderate etc.

Do you really think that the EU gives a damn about our internecine warfare and will adjust their position (which has been clear and precise since the beginning of negociations) one iota? To me it appears that the UK is all consumed with the idea of its own self importance. The EU is certainly starting to concentrate on its future following Brexit and is suprisingly (to the British), not obsessed with the idea of accomodating the UK's desires.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

Do you really think that the EU gives a damn about our internecine warfare and will adjust their position (which has been clear and precise since the beginning of negociations) one iota? To me it appears that the UK is all consumed with the idea of its own self importance. The EU is certainly starting to concentrate on its future following Brexit and is suprisingly (to the British), not obsessed with the idea of accomodating the UK's desires.

Yogi, my thoughts on the rights or wrongs of the UK & Boris are not related directly to my thoughts on the likely narrative made by Boris - as I put it, it was as expected from him.
I think the EU does give a damn but also knows that to show or state that would be a trite silly, non?
As the leave date, of 14% of the EU budget, approaches and the costs of covering or shrinkage with in the EU budget hardens, then movement and reality of the "divorce" will hit home and recriminations get worse.
IT WILL BE A HARD RIDE BOTH SIDES OF THE CHANNEL, make no mistake.
For me, at the pre "vote" stage I hoped for real EU concessions to get a remain vote, when it didn't happen then I went to being a (little/reluctant) leaver: & after hearing Junker (et al) talk of the EU of the future I have become a more worried Leaver, but also more certain that in 10-15 years time it will be seen as the right decision; but hard times are ahead.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Yogi, my thoughts on the rights or wrongs of the UK & Boris are not related directly to my thoughts on the likely narrative made by Boris - as I put it, it was as expected from him.
I think the EU does give a damn but also knows that to show or state that would be a trite silly, non?
As the leave date, of 14% of the EU budget, approaches and the costs of covering or shrinkage with in the EU budget hardens, then movement and reality of the "divorce" will hit home and recriminations get worse.
IT WILL BE A HARD RIDE BOTH SIDES OF THE CHANNEL, make no mistake.
For me, at the pre "vote" stage I hoped for real EU concessions to get a remain vote, when it didn't happen then I went to being a (little/reluctant) leaver: & after hearing Junker (et al) talk of the EU of the future I have become a more worried Leaver, but also more certain that in 10-15 years time it will be seen as the right decision; but hard times are ahead.

I don't disagree with what you say..................there will be no winners from this sad situation. It's my belief that the UK concentrates far too much on the economic outcomes of Brexit, whilst undervaluing the political dimension. Its dogged belief that the EU will eventually 'come to its senses' and offer the UK a 'good deal' for the reasons of economics is a dangerous strategy and one likely to backfire. My brother's view ( a remainer, now turned Brexiteer) is that the chance of London remaining the world', top financial centre after Brexit is 50/50. I did point out to him that it seemed chancy to risk the country's financial future on a evens bet! Yes, things may work out for the UK in another 10/15(+) years..........have my doubts I will be around to see it. Yet, even if that is the case, will it be a country you would like to live in...........especially if you are not rich? Do people really understand what the consequences will be in order to get the UK up and running again post hard Brexit?....................probably about as much as they understood when they voted to
leave! :smile:

 

[Swiss Tony]

You've obviously never had to back up your opinions with sources,research etc as you would have had to have done at university level.

Or indeed Polytechnic,:dunce:

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Or indeed Polytechnic,:dunce:

Ha! Brum Poly has been a University since 1992,which was a year after I obtained my MA in TESOL from UCL :raspberry:

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Yogi, my thoughts on the rights or wrongs of the UK & Boris are not related directly to my thoughts on the likely narrative made by Boris - as I put it, it was as expected from him.
I think the EU does give a damn but also knows that to show or state that would be a trite silly, non?
As the leave date, of 14% of the EU budget, approaches and the costs of covering or shrinkage with in the EU budget hardens, then movement and reality of the "divorce" will hit home and recriminations get worse.
IT WILL BE A HARD RIDE BOTH SIDES OF THE CHANNEL, make no mistake.
For me, at the pre "vote" stage I hoped for real EU concessions to get a remain vote, when it didn't happen then I went to being a (little/reluctant) leaver: & after hearing Junker (et al) talk of the EU of the future I have become a more worried Leaver, but also more certain that in 10-15 years time it will be seen as the right decision; but hard times are ahead.

Seem to remember hearing recently (probably on the Daily Politics) that the UK represented 5% of the EU's 25% internal market of 500 million people.

Are you really saying that we pay 14% of the EU budget on that basis?:unsure:

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Boris Johnson has insisted that the UK will succeed "mightily" as a low-regulation economy,no longer paying into the EU budget after March 2019,thus resurrecting the offshore Singapore style business model for the UK after Brexit.

According to Gianni Pittela,the leader of the socialist bloc in the EU parliament:- “Boris Johnson is embarrassing his country once again by repeating the lies of the Leave campaign. He is jeopardising the Brexit negotiations by threatening to turn the UK into a low-regulation economy."

if May repeats Boris's line in Florence next Friday she might as well break off negotiations with the EU now.If she doesn't she should sack Boris next weekend.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

Here is a question for interest and research.
Q. Which EU country receives the highest (per capita) amount of EU funds? Many won't immediately guess it as the figures is (admittedly) unusual as the country has the highest number of persons directly employed (at huge salaries) by the EU.


A. begins with the letter L but is not Latvia and is possibly the wealthiest country (per capita) in the EU!
You couldn't male it up or imagine how it has been allowed.:whistling:

 

[londonblue]

Yogi, my thoughts on the rights or wrongs of the UK & Boris are not related directly to my thoughts on the likely narrative made by Boris - as I put it, it was as expected from him.
I think the EU does give a damn but also knows that to show or state that would be a trite silly, non?
As the leave date, of 14% of the EU budget, approaches and the costs of covering or shrinkage with in the EU budget hardens, then movement and reality of the "divorce" will hit home and recriminations get worse.
IT WILL BE A HARD RIDE BOTH SIDES OF THE CHANNEL, make no mistake.
For me, at the pre "vote" stage I hoped for real EU concessions to get a remain vote, when it didn't happen then I went to being a (little/reluctant) leaver: & after hearing Junker (et al) talk of the EU of the future I have become a more worried Leaver, but also more certain that in 10-15 years time it will be seen as the right decision; but hard times are ahead.

It's a shame you let the failings to two men (Camerscum and Juncker - who by all accounts is an impossible man) sway your opinion.

 

[MK Shrimper]

Here is a question for interest and research.
Q. Which EU country receives the highest (per capita) amount of EU funds? Many won't immediately guess it as the figures is (admittedly) unusual as the country has the highest number of persons directly employed (at huge salaries) by the EU.


A. begins with the letter L but is not Latvia and is possibly the wealthiest country (per capita) in the EU!
You couldn't male it up or imagine how it has been allowed.:whistling:

Lilliput????

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

It's a shame you let the failings to two men (Camerscum and Juncker - who by all accounts is an impossible man) sway your opinion.

History has shown time and time again that when a man (usually a man) who is rotten to the core gets to the top and is "allowed" to stay there, in any organisation/country then it is primarily through the underlings being almost as corrupted, power crazed, greedy or fearful of being discarded and the consequences. Cammymoron isn't in the same league as Junker, to use a football comparison perhaps Blatter?
Again I ask you - why has the EU failed to have its accounts audited and why does it get away with "sacking" auditors when they start uncovering "unusual" deals?
Is the EU a club we should stay in.................in it's unchanging form,...........really?

 

[londonblue]

History has shown time and time again that when a man (usually a man) who is rotten to the core gets to the top and is "allowed" to stay there, in any organisation/country then it is primarily through the underlings being almost as corrupted, power crazed, greedy or fearful of being discarded and the consequences. Cammymoron isn't in the same league as Junker, to use a football comparison perhaps Blatter?
Again I ask you - why has the EU failed to have its accounts audited and why does it get away with "sacking" auditors when they start uncovering "unusual" deals?
Is the EU a club we should stay in.................in it's unchanging form,...........really?

I'm not talking about Juncker being corrupt, and I wouldn't dare make those accusations without having the first clue. I'm talking about him being difficult to deal with. The fact that you let two men sway your view just seems disappointing to me. After all, neither will be around in the long run.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I'm not talking about Juncker being corrupt, and I wouldn't dare make those accusations without having the first clue. I'm talking about him being difficult to deal with. The fact that you let two men sway your view just seems disappointing to me. After all, neither will be around in the long run.

Ha! That precisely why Keynes preferred short or medium term solutions to problems.As he said:"After all, in the long run we're all dead." :smiles:

 

[Lord Football]

Some really technical stuff coming out today.

Firstly, May is in Canada talking about a post Brexit Trade deal. Huzzah...... Sadly not. The Canadian Free Trade Deal (CETA) was agreed late last year with an implementation date in February. It's been delayed in the Canadian Parliament for several months and I believe it is going to live on Friday. It took seven years to negotiate, and whilst it was held up slightly by the Belgians, it is a good indication of just how long these things take. But the point of course is that the day before we leave we will have free trade with Canada, the day after we leave we wont. So we lose something we had.

The second crunch issue is some news about the Irish land border. This going to be really difficult to resolve without setting off tension. The ROI must have a border, and the UK will be under pressure to put something into place by the WTO. (I wonder how longer some Farage type character thinks its a good idea to leave that as well so we can control our borders!!). Of course if you have a border, you have smugglers. And there is now a palpable that this will increase levels of criminality, increase the movement of illicit goods and, if we don't do it properly, a gateway into the UK from illegal immigrants (of course we don't have a le Touquet type of agreement with ROI).

And then we have the car manufacturers (who have been quite vocal behind the scenes), are now making significant public noises about the effect on their industry and the lake of direction. The really difficult thinking in this respect comes down to Rules of Origin and that is going to have a massive effect on any trade deal we will sign in the future (just because a car is made in Sunderland, doesn't mean its British).

Finally, its becoming clearer by the day that certain politicians are viewing Brexit as a means to their personal ends. Given many people seem to have voted to give the political class a slap - that's backfired and its made the political in-fighting worse.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Some really technical stuff coming out today.

Firstly, May is in Canada talking about a post Brexit Trade deal. Huzzah...... Sadly not. The Canadian Free Trade Deal (CETA) was agreed late last year with an implementation date in February. It's been delayed in the Canadian Parliament for several months and I believe it is going to live on Friday. It took seven years to negotiate, and whilst it was held up slightly by the Belgians, it is a good indication of just how long these things take. But the point of course is that the day before we leave we will have free trade with Canada, the day after we leave we wont. So we lose something we had.

The second crunch issue is some news about the Irish land border. This going to be really difficult to resolve without setting off tension. The ROI must have a border, and the UK will be under pressure to put something into place by the WTO. (I wonder how longer some Farage type character thinks its a good idea to leave that as well so we can control our borders!!). Of course if you have a border, you have smugglers. And there is now a palpable that this will increase levels of criminality, increase the movement of illicit goods and, if we don't do it properly, a gateway into the UK from illegal immigrants (of course we don't have a le Touquet type of agreement with ROI).

And then we have the car manufacturers (who have been quite vocal behind the scenes), are now making significant public noises about the effect on their industry and the lake of direction. The really difficult thinking in this respect comes down to Rules of Origin and that is going to have a massive effect on any trade deal we will sign in the future (just because a car is made in Sunderland, doesn't mean its British).

Finally, its becoming clearer by the day that certain politicians are viewing Brexit as a means to their personal ends. Given many people seem to have voted to give the political class a slap - that's backfired and its made the political in-fighting worse.

The "realpolitik" problem with the Irish border issue is,of course precisely,that the EU will continue to refuse to countenance talks on trade, until this issue is sorted.Sequencing is clearly not going to work in the UK's favour here.It could indeed lead us to crashing out of the EU on WTO terms, unless substantial progress is made on the Irish border problem sometime soon.

 

[Lord Football]

The "realpolitic" problem with the Irish border issue is,of course precisely,that the EU will continue to refuse to countenance talks on trade, until this issue is sorted.Sequencing is clearly not going to wok in the UK's favour here.It could indeed lead us to crashing out of the EU on WTO terms, unless substantial progress is made on the Irish border problem sometime soon.

well...... there has to be a border. The idea of a virtual (or sea) border can't work. By not having a border, the UK would be giving Favoured Nation Status to Ireland and therefore put the Irish ahead of the EU and, crucially, the US. At the point we say "no border" the likelihood is that the US make official representations to the WTO. And then it gets really complicated.