Brexit negotiations thread

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Checkers will eventually be watered down to a Norway syle deal after all the compromises-on both sides-have taken place. Remain sadly is not an option, if the democratic will of the people is to be respected.Brexit is a mess but at least it's a democratic mess.

What happens if Corbyn is finally dragged around to the idea of a second referendum, thus becoming Labour policy. Will you remain out of line? (sorry for the pun ) There is also the question as to whether a Norway style deal would really be reflecting the will of the people (whatever that is). Surely that's BINO.............We'd be outside the EU door but not outside the building...............the worst of both worlds.

 

[rigsby]

I'm happy to debate. As I have mentioned before, I think the EU is far from perfect but given the options that seem to be on the table which are Chequers or no deal, I think remain is a much better option for the country.

I find it difficult to debate with stubborn brexiteers as they just attribute expert opinion to "project fear". I would say objectively that Mark Carney governor of the bank of England since 2013 would be a voice that should be listened when it comes to predicting the economy. Jacob Rees Mogg labels him as hysterical and dismisses his predictions, who would you rather believe a man who is vastly qualified or a man who has gambled heavily on emerging markets, a man who stands to profit heavily from Brexit regardless of damage to the British economy.
Ralf Speth the chief exec of Jaguar Land rover warns of how brexit will not only affect their previously planned £80bn investment but also force them into a contingency to move away from production in the UK. He explains in detail all the obstacles of operating post brexit and it is dismissed by those with no expertise in the automotive industry.
My own industry (insurance) has already sacrificed some of its control as Lloyds is now domiciled in Brussells for all EU business which is a massive market and I know many brokers are being cut out completely now on their European books of business.
Renegotiating trade deals and negotiating new deals is a long arduous process with much DD and massive legal costs. Simple deals between my company and foreign partners have to go through the scrutiny of the legal team with several re-draftings before all parties agree and it complies with regulations in both countries. If we lose all our EU trading agreements I can't see how we will not suffer significantly in the time it takes to negotiate, we are talking years here. We really needed brexit with inclusion to the single market if we were going to leave and we aren't going to get it.
The city is expecting big pain, everyone I know is having damage limitation talks from the top.
You are correct that the world wealthiest want to live and trade here but rather that taking control back we are losing control of our financial power.

So if we stick to just your industry, Insurance. I have holidayed the last few years in with lots of people from your very industry. Brokers, Lloyds underwriters, ship owners and people who do security around the Horn of Africa etc.

I was surprised how strongly Brexit they are because yet again the media and reality don't match. I asked them about firms moving abroad etc. They had already set up offices and skeleton staff in places like Luxemburg but assure me they wont be moving in any great numbers. One of them had just won a lot of business from the US for the very reason that they couldn't trust the Italians......Their words not mine.

I have met all these people through a long time friend who has done very well for himself in marine insurance. After 20 years abroad he has just bought a house in Ingatestone and a flat in Shenfield for his two sons who have just started work in the city in your industry. They were educated privately abroad and some of their friends are from the wealthiest families in the world. Their school was English speaking and they do the same exams and A levels as our kids......I wonder why?

That's what's so great about your industry.....Diversity is a dirty word. Its father and sons or people you know.

Apart from spending money renovating both properties my friend has also sponsored Hullbridge sports junior teams and does come down to RH now and again with the two lads. He has landed a start for the daughter of another good friend of ours as an underwriter. I have been offered some work next spring on his holiday home (it was part of a settlement in a business court case) So if anyone has a hissy fit and threatens to leave these shores, please leave quietly you wont be missed.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

There are talks of a peoples vote from some quarters on whether to accept the final deal, I think democracy is fluid and a peoples vote on the final deal would be the democratic thing to do. Realistically though, May has said she wouldn't entertain it so it is very unlikely no matter how loud the calls for it get.

She also said she wouldn't call a General Election last year! As a remainer I have to accept it's a long shot but if she failed to get her deal or no deal through the Commons, what would her choices be? Resign, call a General Election or opt for a Second referendum?...........are there any others???

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Whilst we've been on here posting.................in the real world it seems, unexpectedly, that pressure is really being ratcheded up this afternoon. The EU is finished with encouraging words for May and her Chequers deal. according to Tusk, it's dead...........it won't work. October Summit of EU leaders now seems to be crunch time with the threat that the talked about special summit in November would be inutile without progress being made. Does Captain May change tack or go down with her ship?.............amazing times. OR, as May claims, is this just a negotiating ploy by the EU???

 

[Ricky Otto]

So if we stick to just your industry, Insurance. I have holidayed the last few years in with lots of people from your very industry. Brokers, Lloyds underwriters, ship owners and people who do security around the Horn of Africa etc.

I was surprised how strongly Brexit they are because yet again the media and reality don't match. I asked them about firms moving abroad etc. They had already set up offices and skeleton staff in places like Luxemburg but assure me they wont be moving in any great numbers. One of them had just won a lot of business from the US for the very reason that they couldn't trust the Italians......Their words not mine.

I have met all these people through a long time friend who has done very well for himself in marine insurance. After 20 years abroad he has just bought a house in Ingatestone and a flat in Shenfield for his two sons who have just started work in the city in your industry. They were educated privately abroad and some of their friends are from the wealthiest families in the world. Their school was English speaking and they do the same exams and A levels as our kids......I wonder why?

That's what's so great about your industry.....Diversity is a dirty word. Its father and sons or people you know.

Apart from spending money renovating both properties my friend has also sponsored Hullbridge sports junior teams and does come down to RH now and again with the two lads. He has landed a start for the daughter of another good friend of ours as an underwriter. I have been offered some work next spring on his holiday home (it was part of a settlement in a business court case) So if anyone has a hissy fit and threatens to leave these shores, please leave quietly you wont be missed.

I certainly wouldn't disagree with what you say about people in the Lloyds market doing very well for themselves over the years. Your point about it being very incestuous and diversity being a dirty word is probably true at the top, not many guys up there who didn't go to the right school. But I have been in meetings at Lloyds where the chairman and deputy chairman of Lloyds have spoken of damage limitation and Lloyds promoted remain. I work for a major Lloyds syndicate and our CEO at the time urged us to vote remain through staff communication as it would be better for the company. I know this was common practice across the market. I'm not sure how these guys you know would be pro brexit on the basis it is good for the industry? Surely all these CEO's and the chairman of Lloyds would not be lying, they want what is best for the industry and their companies. I can only assume these guys are pro brexit on personal interest.
The point you make about US business is not incorrect, they do like dealing with us and I don't think the losses will be big. It is also worth noting that US business the last couple of years has accounted for the biggest losses in the market, Especially last year with Harvey and Irma. This year hasn't had a great start either. Profitable European business reduced what could have been catastrophic losses. Insurance has always relied on the diversity of business as if you put all you eggs in one basket and that basket gets hit by catastrophies then you are going to lose big time. European business is very important to the Lloyds market.

 

[Ricky Otto]

She also said she wouldn't call a General Election last year! As a remainer I have to accept it's a long shot but if she failed to get her deal or no deal through the Commons, what would her choices be? Resign, call a General Election or opt for a Second referendum?...........are there any others???

Hope you are correct, I really do

 

[rigsby]

I certainly wouldn't disagree with what you say about people in the Lloyds market doing very well for themselves over the years. Your point about it being very incestuous and diversity being a dirty word is probably true at the top, not many guys up there who didn't go to the right school. But I have been in meetings at Lloyds where the chairman and deputy chairman of Lloyds have spoken of damage limitation and Lloyds promoted remain. I work for a major Lloyds syndicate and our CEO at the time urged us to vote remain through staff communication as it would be better for the company. I know this was common practice across the market. I'm not sure how these guys you know would be pro brexit on the basis it is good for the industry? Surely all these CEO's and the chairman of Lloyds would not be lying, they want what is best for the industry and their companies. I can only assume these guys are pro brexit on personal interest.
The point you make about US business is not incorrect, they do like dealing with us and I don't think the losses will be big. It is also worth noting that US business the last couple of years has accounted for the biggest losses in the market, Especially last year with Harvey and Irma. This year hasn't had a great start either. Profitable European business reduced what could have been catastrophic losses. Insurance has always relied on the diversity of business as if you put all you eggs in one basket and that basket gets hit by catastrophies then you are going to lose big time. European business is very important to the Lloyds market.

Yes it was for personal and family reasons rather than the company policy. I guess most of them looked at the bigger picture as life does exist outside of the city.

I wouldn't call any of them old school tie, maybe Brentwood at best. My Friend went to Fitz, his aunty pointed him towards the insurance industry. There has been many changes in the city in the last 30 years and many jobs have gone overseas, or were planned, long before Brexit. I have another friend who has been moved to Poland.....Not we he wanted in his 50's. He said it was Obama telling us to remain that made him vote Brexit.

I was actually house hunting in Thorpe Bay on behalf of my friend but he and his wife were shocked how bad the traffic was driving from London, hence they went for Ingatestone as her family are from that area. I guess when you have lived here for 20 years you don't notice how crowded our little corner of the world has become.

 

[Benfleet A1]

So if we stick to just your industry, Insurance. I have holidayed the last few years in with lots of people from your very industry. Brokers, Lloyds underwriters, ship owners and people who do security around the Horn of Africa etc.

I was surprised how strongly Brexit they are because yet again the media and reality don't match. I asked them about firms moving abroad etc. They had already set up offices and skeleton staff in places like Luxemburg but assure me they wont be moving in any great numbers. One of them had just won a lot of business from the US for the very reason that they couldn't trust the Italians......Their words not mine.

I have met all these people through a long time friend who has done very well for himself in marine insurance. After 20 years abroad he has just bought a house in Ingatestone and a flat in Shenfield for his two sons who have just started work in the city in your industry. They were educated privately abroad and some of their friends are from the wealthiest families in the world. Their school was English speaking and they do the same exams and A levels as our kids......I wonder why?

That's what's so great about your industry.....Diversity is a dirty word. Its father and sons or people you know.

Apart from spending money renovating both properties my friend has also sponsored Hullbridge sports junior teams and does come down to RH now and again with the two lads. He has landed a start for the daughter of another good friend of ours as an underwriter. I have been offered some work next spring on his holiday home (it was part of a settlement in a business court case) So if anyone has a hissy fit and threatens to leave these shores, please leave quietly you wont be missed.

Did you mean shipping security by any chance?

 

[rigsby]

Did you mean shipping security by any chance?

Yes, armed guards. Mainly for protection from Somalian pirates etc.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

What happens if Corbyn is finally dragged around to the idea of a second referendum, thus becoming Labour policy. Will you remain out of line? (sorry for the pun ) There is also the question as to whether a Norway style deal would really be reflecting the will of the people (whatever that is). Surely that's BINO.............We'd be outside the EU door but not outside the building...............the worst of both worlds.

I'm fairly confident that Labour won't back any call for a second referendum but will (as they've already promised) vote against any Tory Brexit deal in Parliament.As far as a Norway style deal is concernesd,I honestly think it's the only sort of deal that the EU will countenance.Obviously,there is still the NI border issue to be resolved.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Maybe it needs a bit of time to sink in, what has happened today. It seems so reminiscent of Cameron going to get aid for his referendum campaign and coming home empty handed. In a way, this was so unexpected because it was thought the EU, even though it evidently didn't believe in Chequers, wanted to keep it alive to at least facilitate May's Conservative Party Conference. As the BBC put it..........

It certainly sparked memories of Mrs May's famous election claim that "nothing has changed" - but something here has.

What has happened? I don't believe in May's initial reaction that it's an EU negotiating ploy......it's a VERY dangerous game of chicken if it is. In the short negotiating time which remains, has the EU lost patience with the UK and its Brexit stance? Is May's position as PM rather less secure following today's events? Will she survive the Tory Party Conference? How long will it take before there's a TV series made of our Brexit drama???
I've just seen this and although from the Guardian it does offer some explanation of what may have happened and why.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...e-boot-in-after-mays-brexit-breakfast-blunder

 

[Lord Football]

I have always believed that despite the hype, everyone knows that a D1ND is a dreadful outcome (as evidenced by recent Technical Papers) and as such no sensible government will allow us to be in that position. I've also always believed that is in the best interests of the EU to find a way to make that happen.

But, it has always been clear that there are aspects within Chequers that the EU would struggle to accept, and ultimately, the EU's position is based on "own resources", regulatory integrity and common set of rules. They will not compromise that position. So, on that basis, Chequers could only be a starting point.

So, I am completely baffled in the PM's rhetoric of "my way or the highway". She is touting a piece of paper around Europe that she knows her Party don't agree with, Parliament as a whole won't agree and, now, the EU have ditched. She appears to be willingly commiting political suicide on both a personal and national level.

Quite how she continues to lead her own Party given her flagship idea is in tatters and she is unwilling to change direction, will be an interesting way to spend Conference season. If her Brexit Secretary is only mandated to continue to push Chequers, the chances of a deal or even a transition deal diminish.

Of course it is entirely possible that her desired end game is to prove that Brexit isn't possible and go back to the country. But that's probably wishful thinking on my part.....

 

[Shrimpers are Magic]

That's it, it's dead in the water now. May can't come back from this as parliament will defeat her if she goes for a no deal. I suppose I always knew in my heart of hearts that Brexit would never happen.

 

[Benfleet A1]

I have always believed that despite the hype, everyone knows that a D1ND is a dreadful outcome (as evidenced by recent Technical Papers) and as such no sensible government will allow us to be in that position. I've also always believed that is in the best interests of the EU to find a way to make that happen.

But, it has always been clear that there are aspects within Chequers that the EU would struggle to accept, and ultimately, the EU's position is based on "own resources", regulatory integrity and common set of rules. They will not compromise that position. So, on that basis, Chequers could only be a starting point.

So, I am completely baffled in the PM's rhetoric of "my way or the highway". She is touting a piece of paper around Europe that she knows her Party don't agree with, Parliament as a whole won't agree and, now, the EU have ditched. She appears to be willingly commiting political suicide on both a personal and national level.

Quite how she continues to lead her own Party given her flagship idea is in tatters and she is unwilling to change direction, will be an interesting way to spend Conference season. If her Brexit Secretary is only mandated to continue to push Chequers, the chances of a deal or even a transition deal diminish.

Of course it is entirely possible that her desired end game is to prove that Brexit isn't possible and go back to the country. But that's probably wishful thinking on my part.....

Taking one for the team maybe? Let it fail and scrap the whole sorry idea, after all she is a remainer and never made out otherwise.

I know, wishful thinking on my part.

 

[dcblue]

Apparently May will be making an announcement sometime soon. Hopefully resignation and there are rumours she wants to win strictly. Now that would be worth watching.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Apparently May will be making an announcement sometime soon. Hopefully resignation and there are rumours she wants to win strictly. Now that would be worth watching.

She's already got the shoes.......she'll have to select her partner carefully with those feet Where did you see the news about her making an announcement? I wouldn't put your hopes too high...........there are many things one can say about May but I don't think being a quitter is one of them...........we shall see.

 

[Lord Football]

Apparently May will be making an announcement sometime soon. Hopefully resignation and there are rumours she wants to win strictly. Now that would be worth watching.

...where did you read that from?

It'd surprise me greatly if she fell on her sword, or even did a John Major style "bring it on boys, resignation". She doesn't seem the type.

 

[dcblue]

...where did you read that from?

It'd surprise me greatly if she fell on her sword, or even did a John Major style "bring it on boys, resignation". She doesn't seem the type.

Nadine Dorries on twitter.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

He might not have that choice and unlike another expat on here, yogi shows serious concern for this country, not just snipeing from the sidelines.

Deep down I suspect you know that, like Billy Bragg and John Osborne, (two of my heroes) I'm an English patriot.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

It's been clear for some time that:- "The EU will not accept the Chequers plan, which proposes a single market in goods but not in services, capital or people. It will also not accept any possibility of border infrastructure in Ireland,"

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...xit-chequers-salzburg-irish-sea-customs-union

The two alternatives that the EU will accept are a border with Ireland in the Irish Sea or the UK's membership of a/the customs union (which would involve accepting free movementof labour-like Norway).

The only alternative to this would be exiting the EU on WTO rules.