Brexit negotiations thread

[yogi bear up the cagire]

One does get pretty tired of being lied to by our politicians and this government in particular. When May stood in the Commons yesterday and went through her mantra of objectives for Brexit, just who did she think she was kidding? There is not a hope in hell of getting what she is demanding from the EU and she must know it..........unless she's completely deluded. Yes, the EU will bend a little in a desperate attempt to get a deal but May will be obliged to move a lot more from a position where she is hardly able to keep her party together.
In retrospect I don't think Brexit was ever possible to deliver although no one bothered to point that out to people in June 2016. Having just said that Brexit could be achieved by default (I think this is the thought and fear of many in Europe). Time could just run out with both sides still being too far apart to achieve an agreement. Then do we just crash out in March next year?............or do we get extra-time..........although I can't see what good that will do apart from just kicking the can down the road. (Hey, May's quite good at that!) I dread to think of the penalty shoot out. What a mess, what a bloody mess!

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

The thing is, the Brexiteers won, so now they need to shut up and deliver Brexit. Only thing is, of course, they've not got a Scooby what Brexit they can actually deliver that meets their jaundiced, one eyed political agenda that doesn't screw up the economy on a long term basis.

They've all worked very hard to ruin any plan so far put forward without putting forward any alternative - and they know "just leaving" isn't an option. Two of them resigned yesterday, without putting forward an alternative solution. People like JMR have wrung their hands at the letting down of the British people but haven't got a solution. There are various other faceless Tories, such as Bone and Redwood, who've no concept of how to deliver their hard, stand alone Brexit. And then there is Farage catching endangered sharks gleefully clapping his hands as Ministers resigned and egging on others like some kind of self appointed puppet master. He too, doesn't have a solution.

All we get from this rag tag mob is line after line of meaningless tosh about a brighter future that none of them can actually put any detail on. They failed to do so in the referendum, they failed to do so when HMG were developing plans and they fail to do snow. They can't provide any details, because they do not understand how international trade, economies and movement of people are all linked and breaking those links have consequences. National and international consequeneces.

So it really is time we stopped listening to them. It is time we stopped giving them airtime, it is time they stopped misleading the people of this country.

What May did last night was, AT LAST, show a bit of leadership. She told them to shut up and I applaud her for doing so. Yes, she may need to work with Labour to deliver some sort of Brexit - a Brexit that doesn't necessarily shaft us all, that might even keep us in a Customs Union of sorts, that will stop our manufactures moving operations to the EU and will keep jobs in the UK.

The Hardliners didn't do their maths, they didn't get 48 letters need to force a leadership challenge. Even if they did, would never have got any kind of plan through a Parliament that emphatically does not agree their position.

Yes, I generally agree with all that, yet I do have problems with your hopes for a solution. Will May really risk tearing her party in two and working with oppositon (if they'll play ball) in order to achieve a soft Brexit? One which can not go anywhere near matching up the desires she expressed in the Commons yesterday. Then there is this other problem I have and that could be summed up by asking.......What advantages does this kind of soft Brexit give us (apart from damage limitation)? .........how is it better than the position we are now in as full members of the EU? Surely we haven't gone through this two years of time consuming expense to end up in a worse place?

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Of course you're forgetting that the UK is the third (probably the second) highest contributor to the EU and therefore it's absence would be rather more keenly felt than if lets say Ireland or Spain decided to go - which of course they wouldn't as they take more out of the EU than they pay in.

I'm not forgetting anything.While the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world and the third largest contributor to the EU budget (as you say ) the UK in not an equal partner with the rest of the 27 member states. Certainly its absence will be keenly felt,which is precisely why the EU would prefer the UK to stay a member of the EU.It's also in the UK's best interests to remain,IMO. However,it is the UK which has decided to leave the EU.Consequently the UK will have to pay the price which the EU deems appropriate.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Tories appealing to Labour to push through a form of Brexit - no thanks. Corbyn wouldn't share a platform with them in the referendum campaigning so as not to be tarnished with their form of Remain. Why now get tarnished with their form of Leave? Two years of procrastinating - why get involved and try to pick up the pieces of that? There was a referendum and a result which the government were charged with delivering. They failed. Brexit is over, this government is over.

 

[Lord Football]

Yes, I generally agree with all that, yet I do have problems with your hopes for a solution. Will May really risk tearing her party in two and working with oppositon (if they'll play ball) in order to achieve a soft Brexit? One which can not go anywhere near matching up the desires she expressed in the Commons yesterday. Then there is this other problem I have and that could be summed up by asking.......What advantages does this kind of soft Brexit give us (apart from damage limitation)? .........how is it better than the position we are now in as full members of the EU? Surely we haven't gone through this two years of time consuming expense to end up in a worse place?

I don't think she has any choice, but I don't think the Tories will split. JMR was talking a split yesterday, but in a language that was woolier than a Siberian Mammoth. At the end of the day, the Tories will not jeopardise their government over this.

The advantages of persuing a soft Brexit means we wont be having a hard Brexit - the latter being the worse case scenario. (that, and crashing out without a deal. No deal is NOT in any circumstances better than a bad deal). So yeah, damage limitation to a certain degree.

But there is a massive BUT........ What if the EU Commission say "non" to the Chequers Proposal.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

Of course you're forgetting that the UK is the third (probably the second) highest contributor to the EU and therefore it's absence would be rather more keenly felt than if lets say Ireland or Spain decided to go - which of course they wouldn't as they take more out of the EU than they pay in.

Remember the UK may be a net contributor but the UK still gets most of that back (even before you start to calculate the wider benefits of EU membership). If the UK goes, the EU doesn't then have to pay the rebate, it doesn't have to pay British farmers under the CAP, it doesn't have to fund the 20,000 projects in the North East it's been funding and all those things in Cornwall, Wales and other deprived areas of the UK. Ultimately the impact on the EU budget won't be all that much.

Sure, EU funding will have to be revisited and maybe some programmes get cut or delayed like the process we have here each budget but overall it really won't have that big an impact on EU funding. What would have a big impact on the EU - and what the EU wants to avoid - is the whole thing being undermined by a country getting a better deal outside than they currently get inside. That's why the EU say the 4 pillars are indivisible.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

I don't think she has any choice, but I don't think the Tories will split. JMR was talking a split yesterday, but in a language that was woolier than a Siberian Mammoth. At the end of the day, the Tories will not jeopardise their government over this.

The advantages of persuing a soft Brexit means we wont be having a hard Brexit - the latter being the worse case scenario. (that, and crashing out without a deal. No deal is NOT in any circumstances better than a bad deal). So yeah, damage limitation to a certain degree.

But there is a massive BUT........ What if the EU Commission say "non" to the Chequers Proposal.

Exactly, as I said earlier. As I see it, there is no way the EU will accede to the list of demands for the kind of Brexit May spouted in the Commons yesterday. Certainly, they will bend a little to achieve a settlement but it is May who will have to bend far further...........and at what point will she break? When her negotiating delusion meets up the hard truth of reality. Yet isn't there another thing here. Shouldn't the truth be explained to the 52% of Brexiters, that they are not going to get the Brexit they wished for (or rather, they were told they could get)...........if we get a deal at all. However, just how likely is a hard Brexit by default? Is that what will happen if time runs out without an agreement being reached?

 

[Lord Football]

Exactly, as I said earlier. As I see it, there is no way the EU will accede to the list of demands for the kind of Brexit May spouted in the Commons yesterday. Certainly, they will bend a little to achieve a settlement but it is May who will have to bend far further...........and at what point will she break? When her negotiating delusion meets up the hard truth of reality. Yet isn't there another thing here. Shouldn't the truth be explained to the 52% of Brexiters, that they are not going to get the Brexit they wished for (or rather, they were told they could get)...........if we get a deal at all. However, just how likely is a hard Brexit by default? Is that what will happen if time runs out without an agreement being reached?

The thing is..... if there is a hard Brexit there will be significant problems in Calais, Coquelles, Rotterdam, Eurotunnel Brussels and the Irish Border - so it is within the interest of those member states to either seek a transition period or come to an agreement.

I understand from various news sources that Angela Merkel had given her approval to the Chequers Paper - that does signify some sort of positivity.

The truth should be explained, but you know, if it is the hardliners will just scream nonsensical bollocks about "will of the people".

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

The thing is..... if there is a hard Brexit there will be significant problems in Calais, Coquelles, Rotterdam, Eurotunnel Brussels and the Irish Border - so it is within the interest of those member states to either seek a transition period or come to an agreement.

I understand from various news sources that Angela Merkel had given her approval to the Chequers Paper - that does signify some sort of positivity.

The truth should be explained, but you know, if it is the hardliners will just scream nonsensical bollocks about "will of the people".

We'll see what's in the detail on Thursday. I look forward to seeing your views on the White Paper.

 

[Bearded Shrimper]

One thing that really ****es me off about all this is those people saying 'we'll end up in a worse position so why not stay?'. We can't stay because we bloody voted to leave! No amount of wishing it weren't so by the likes of me will reverse the result. We have to leave the EU.
Now it is time for odious little ****s on all sides to wake up to the fact that you can't just stand on the sidelines carping and have to actually do something about it. I never thought I'd go round agreeing with Dominic Raab but he is right.
People who want to stick their fingers in their ears and pretend it isn't happening need to accept that we lost and we need to leave. Those hardline fanatics like Mogg need to accept that just slagging people off doesn't achieve anything. These people are fantasists who need a serious lesson in how the real world works. They need to do what's best for the country and either agree with May and make it happen or propose their own alternative

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

One thing that really ****es me off about all this is those people saying 'we'll end up in a worse position so why not stay?'. We can't stay because we bloody voted to leave! No amount of wishing it weren't so by the likes of me will reverse the result. We have to leave the EU.
Now it is time for odious little ****s on all sides to wake up to the fact that you can't just stand on the sidelines carping and have to actually do something about it. I never thought I'd go round agreeing with Dominic Raab but he is right.
People who want to stick their fingers in their ears and pretend it isn't happening need to accept that we lost and we need to leave. Those hardline fanatics like Mogg need to accept that just slagging people off doesn't achieve anything. These people are fantasists who need a serious lesson in how the real world works. They need to do what's best for the country and either agree with May and make it happen or propose their own alternative

As I remember it, wasn't the referendum vote advisory not obligatory? If you hold the view that whatever deal we get (if indeed we get one) we are obliged to take because a small majority voted for it, then you are entitled to your view but it's not one I could agree with. The whole complexion of the Brexit debate has been completely changed. The things we were promised by the leave campaign (we'll control the negotiations, Brexit will be easy, the EU needs us more than we need the EU etc etc) has proved a tissue of lies. The only chance of achieving a real Brexit, is if negotiations break down and we leave without a deal. May will have to bend far further from today's white paper to obtain a deal the EU. We will probably end up with a deal which still keeps us tied to the EU but without a say. If you believe that is what people voted for and we are obliged to accept it................well, you're entitled to your view.

 

[mattitouk]

We'll see what's in the detail on Thursday. I look forward to seeing your views on the White Paper.

For anyone interested in reading it in full detail, you can download it here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...een-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

For anyone interested in reading it in full detail, you can download it here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...een-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union

why didn't the government think to send a link, they had to suspend Parliament when the new Brexit Secretary started to give a speech on the white paper when they were still waiting to be given out to MPs. Omnishambles.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

I have always claimed that the leading supporters of hard Brexit have a hidden agenda. When we hear people talking about 'taking back control.' Brexit means Brexit but in truth I fear it means a lot more. Perhaps those promoting 'taking back control' should be asked what, eventually, they are going to do with it when they get it? The following article provides a glimpse of what may lay ahead. It should frighten people who are struggling to cope at the moment and voted leave because things couldn't surely get worse............I'm afraid they can. The EU, bureaucratic? overburdening? Interfering? Well, you won't want to see the other predators lying in wait out there, if we crash out of the EU without a deal.......they make the EU benevolent, caring, generous and kind in comparison.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/13/tory-brexiteers-plan-2019-britain-conservative

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44821976

24 hours in the life of a man who is clearly unfit to be President of a great country like the USA.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-44840154

Justin Greening calls for a second referendum.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-44840154

Justin Greening calls for a second referendum.

Brexit and the government unravel a little bit more with every headline. Another tricky week for May coming up.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

So, the uncunning 'Chequers Plan' (nothing as cunning as one of Baldrick's cunning plans) is dead. By accepting the amendments last night, an unacceptable plan has just become even more unacceptable (this was the whole aim of the amendment by the ERG group, wasn't it?) Then May has one of her Trumpesque moments, denying the evident truth...........she stopped short of claiming it was 'fake news.' One always has to remember to put this into context, this plan, sometimes erroneously put forward as a 'deal'............ was only ever a creation made in the mind's eye of the Conservative Party. It is (was?) highly unlike to survive a trip across the Channel and if it did, it certainly would be savaged out of recognition by the EU. So, in the end it's probably all just a waste of time........which , of course, was the excuse Cable and Farron offered for inexcusably being absent from the vote last night.
Usually, the Summer break offers little to compensate for the loss of our weekly Blues drug. This year, with Brexit, May, Trump and of course The World Cup, we risk arriving at the start of August with the feeling, 'football already?!!!'...........hardly even noticed it's been away...........

 

[callan]

One thing that really ****es me off about all this is those people saying 'we'll end up in a worse position so why not stay?'. We can't stay because we bloody voted to leave! No amount of wishing it weren't so by the likes of me will reverse the result. We have to leave the EU.
Now it is time for odious little ****s on all sides to wake up to the fact that you can't just stand on the sidelines carping and have to actually do something about it. I never thought I'd go round agreeing with Dominic Raab but he is right.
People who want to stick their fingers in their ears and pretend it isn't happening need to accept that we lost and we need to leave. Those hardline fanatics like Mogg need to accept that just slagging people off doesn't achieve anything. These people are fantasists who need a serious lesson in how the real world works. They need to do what's best for the country and either agree with May and make it happen or propose their own alternative

As Yogi points out the referendum was advisory, and that advice was given to our ministers to follow.

What has followed since the referendum took place has been chaos and a complete stasis within the Tory party on what leaving the EU means and how to negotiate and carry that out.

The ERG are certainly holding the governments feet to the fire, forcing the amendments to the customs bill in the hope that it will be unpalatable to the EU....and therefore not accepted by them.

Today I think further amendments will come forward from the remain side in a tit for tat exchange and if May loses the vote, will force the UK into a customs union.

There are economic arguments both for and against being in a customs union....from a constitutional and political point of view the impact of staying in a union are more profound.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

As Yogi points out the referendum was advisory, and that advice was given to our ministers to follow.

What has followed since the referendum took place has been chaos and a complete stasis within the Tory party on what leaving the EU means and how to negotiate and carry that out.

The ERG are certainly holding the governments feet to the fire, forcing the amendments to the customs bill in the hope that it will be unpalatable to the EU....and therefore not accepted by them.

Today I think further amendments will come forward from the remain side in a tit for tat exchange and if May loses the vote, will force the UK into a customs union.

There are economic arguments both for and against being in a customs union....from a constitutional and political point of view the impact of staying in a union are more profound.

Nothing really I can disagree with there. I would only add that whole world situation is radically different (especially with Trump), more frightening and insecure from where we in June 2016. Whatever side of the argument one was on, no one ever explained just how difficult it was going to be to extricate us from more than 40 years of involvement in the EU. The only people with much hope left of a successful conclusion to Brexit are those who believe in offering the EU a deal they wouldn't touch with a barge pole. As I've said many times before, what a mess, what a bloody mess!