We are now favourites to go up .....in my opinion.

[londonblue]

Where is the smiley that pulls its hair out??

I hope this is a wind up... In case it is not:

1) The fact they are third in the league makes me think they can win. The fact they are 8/11 to win their game = overwhelming favourites.
2) Before us even having a sniff we have to check the scores and Torquay and Crawley both have to have not won their game. We then have to win our game. Alternatively, they both lose, we draw and go up on goal difference!
3) Not sure how you define the fact Crawley have choked...

We are third favourites to get promotion as per the odds stated in other posts. The bookies odds just don't lie.

Indeed. Their form is pretty much the same as ours (they've only lost once in their last 8 games):

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D3/oform.html

 

[C C Csiders]

I can see it now. The Sky Soccer Sauturday vidiprinter will tick over thus between 3.00 and 4.55 p.m.:

GOAL: Hereford 1 Torquay 0 (Lunt 5)
GOAL: Accrington 1 Crawley 0 (Lindfield 16)
GOAL: Hereford 2 Torquay 0 (Facey 18)
GOAL: Southend 1 Macclesfield 0 (Harris 27)
GOAL : Hereford 3 Torquay 0 (Colbeck 67)
GOAL: Accrington 1 Crawley 1 (Alexander 90+3 (pen))
GOAL: Southend 1 Macclesfield 1 (Gilbert (o.g. 90+5))

:(

 

[THE SEVENTIES NORTH BANK]

My head says Southend and Crawley to win. Torquay to draw.
My heart says Southend win and the other Two don't.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

OK I'm thick, or have missed something.............or both. Why does W****** justify getting trapped by the swear filter?

 

[Paul Shrimper]

I can see it now. The Sky Soccer Sauturday vidiprinter will tick over thus between 3.00 and 4.55 p.m.:

GOAL: Hereford 1 Torquay 0 (Lunt 5)
GOAL: Accrington 1 Crawley 0 (Lindfield 16)
GOAL: Hereford 2 Torquay 0 (Facey 18)
GOAL: Southend 1 Macclesfield 0 (Harris 27)
GOAL : Hereford 3 Torquay 0 (Colbeck 67)
GOAL: Accrington 1 Crawley 1 (Alexander 90+3 (pen))
GOAL: Southend 1 Macclesfield 1 (Gilbert (o.g. 90+5))

:(

Late score coming through from Southend. Gilbert redeems himself with a 45 yarder into the Macclesfield goal to gain promotion for Southend. He immediately gains hero status from his adoring fans.

 

[Jam_Man]

Indeed. Their form is pretty much the same as ours (they've only lost once in their last 8 games):

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D3/oform.html

The form table looks a lot different over 6 games, we are 2nd and the other 2 are midtable.

http://www.footballformguide.net/form/npower-league-2

We have 13 points from 18, the other 2 have 9 points.

Crawley had a terrible spell but have turned it around since but not won last two. Torquay havent won in 4 now.

 

[Paul Shrimper]

Late score coming through from Southend. Gilbert redeems himself with a 45 yarder into the Macclesfield goal to gain promotion for Southend. He immediately gains hero status from his adoring fans.

Sorry got carried away there. I forgot that Gilbert does not play hoof ball anymore.

 

[Beefy]

OK I'm thick, or have missed something.............or both. Why does W****** justify getting trapped by the swear filter?

Irritating, isn't it?

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

OK I'm thick, or have missed something.............or both. Why does W****** justify getting trapped by the swear filter?

Tempting fate but using the word I believe is the vibe. Should prob filter 'automatic' too in that case.

 

[Norwichshrimper]

******* ******* ......we're the famous SUFC and we're going to *******

It's not as if anyone's saying MacBeth


Now now ... them is da rules :smile:

 

[simac21]

I wouldnt get our hopes up too much, reading on different fan forums etc and it sounds like accrington are gonna experiment with youth players this weekend against Crawley looking towards next season. Lets hope its not true!

 

[southchurch]

I wouldnt get our hopes up too much, reading on different fan forums etc and it sounds like accrington are gonna experiment with youth players this weekend against Crawley looking towards next season. Lets hope its not true!

This from Stanley board-

Reckon it will be a mixture of young uns n older heads, got too many injured fer it to be owt else, Don't worry too much about Stanley, they sure as hell will give it their best shot, as the Shrews were sick a bit to observe.

Wish Torquay well, but don't forget Southend can do it also,

Crawley are about as popular as a fart in a spacesuit up here, So keep yer fingers crossed were likely to upset em in my opinion.

 

[BLUEBLOOD]

our chances of being promoted automatically on Saturday are no better than 1 in 12 and probably a lot worse

Our actual odds are 5 in 27 (18%) .. Crawley 14 in 27 (52%) and Torquay 8 in 27 (30%)

 

[Upminster Blue]

Our actual odds are 5 in 27 (18%) .. Crawley 14 in 27 (52%) and Torquay 8 in 27 (30%)

No, you're mixing up the number of favourable outcomes (5 out of the 27 different permutations of results for us, Crawley and Torquay) with the probability (ie the odds) of any of those 5 favourable outcomes occurring, which is roughly 1 in 12 according to the bookies.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I'll see what the weather is like.

I believe rain is forecast.:darkcloud:

 

[Uncle Leo]

No, you're mixing up the number of favourable outcomes (5 out of the 27 different permutations of results for us, Crawley and Torquay) with the probability (ie the odds) of any of those 5 favourable outcomes occurring, which is roughly 1 in 12 according to the bookies.

Biggest price for us to be promoted is 2/1. That represents a 33% chance, i.e. one in three, not one in 12. Even if you take the bookmaker margin in to account, one in 12 (8.33%) is way off.

 

[Angell Delight]

We are NOT favourites by any means. End of. Crawley are relying on no favours, Torquay on one and us on TWO. It's highly unlikely we'll be promoted this weekend, the chance of NEITHER Crawley or Torquay winning is slim.....but we do have a slight chance and football's a funny old game. If nothing else I'm extremely confident for the playoffs. :thumbsup:

 

[bazzashrimper]

Biggest price for us to be promoted is 2/1. That represents a 33% chance, i.e. one in three, not one in 12. Even if you take the bookmaker margin in to account, one in 12 (8.33%) is way off.

That includes the playoffs, which is 3/1 - or better given our form

 

[Barling Magna]

I wonder what the odds were for neither Crawley or Torquay to win at home last Saturday? They would be higher than neither of them winning away next Saturday. What were the odds on Crawley to lose 3-0 at home to Hereford? That was a highly unlikely result; much more unlikely than Accrington drawing or beating Crawley, or Hereford drawing or beating Torquay at home. So we have a fair chance, about a 40% chance I'd say, and that's based on gut feeling, plus being at Plainmoor last Saturday and seeing how little idea Torquay had........

 

[Upminster Blue]

Biggest price for us to be promoted is 2/1. That represents a 33% chance, i.e. one in three, not one in 12. Even if you take the bookmaker margin in to account, one in 12 (8.33%) is way off.

Have a read of post 35 on this thread, explains it all. The 2/1 odds also includes the possibility of going up through the play-offs.

A bit of common sense would also tell you that we have a far worse chance than 33% of going up on Saturday :headbang:

I'm begiining to see how bookmakers make such huge profits :smile::smile: