Play-Offs

[Tangled up in Blue]

Didn’t you make a similar bet about England? Are you just a glass half full type of bloke or do you enjoy winding people up? Genuinely interested. You seem to want your team and country of birth to fail, just so you can smugly say “I told you so”.

Probably did.About a tenner is what I can easily afford to lose.Anyway I'm not really much of a betting man.

More a case of putting my money where my mouth is.

 

[Avl1983]

It's going to take us putting together our best run of the season and we're definitely scoring more goals than we have earlier in the season, if we can tighten up the defence you never know. Sadly, I don't think we'll have enough though.

 

[Chris Powell's mate]

The question is actually 'will' we make it, says Mr Pedantic.
You could point to the last four fixtures, bar one: Gateshead, for an easy ride.
But even there, we come and go.
This month will decide all.
If we win three our of four; we'll have the momentum to take us to (on paper) an easier April.

 

[Blues4LifeDan]

Keep an eye on Gateshead. I said a few weeks ago that they weren't out of being caught. They lost to Aldershot 3-1 in their previous match. Whilst Maidenhead at home in their next fixture seems 'easy', they are scrapping for their survival in the league. If Gateshead lose that, nerves will start to creep in.

 

[ColinMorrisWalksOnWater]

What for having the ball in his hands for 6 seconds??

Yes, indirect free kick inside the box. Very, VERY rarely see that these days.

As an aside, from when I started watching in the second half, neither team controlled possesion that well, although Sutton shaded the half, but couldn't get the second goal. They were poor on the final third and couldn't cross. (Sound familiar?)

However, judging and only judging on that 30 mins or so, I would fancy us to get something on Saturday.

 

[Holy Joe]

Yes, indirect free kick inside the box. Very, VERY rarely see that these days.

As an aside, from when I started watching in the second half, neither team controlled possesion that well, although Sutton shaded the half, but couldn't get the second goal. They were poor on the final third and couldn't cross. (Sound familiar?)

However, judging and only judging on that 30 mins or so, I would fancy us to get something on Saturday.

Wow - haven't seen that for years!

Sounds like we shouldn't be afraid of going to FGR and looking for a win

 

[Blues4LifeDan]

Have the FA ever moved that quick before? Quick google search is not giving any reasons for this suspension. He wasn't booked in Alti's previous game - so it's not a suspension after picking up x cards that starts a week later (or something similar)

It was done very quickly.

 

[ColinMorrisWalksOnWater]

Wow - haven't seen that for years!

Sounds like we shouldn't be afraid of going to FGR and looking for a win

definitely, If we go into this match confident in our ability and on the front foot, I am positve we will get something from Saturday.

If we play like we did in the first half against Alty and about 50% better than in the second half we have more than enough to make them worry about us.

Doidge is obviously a threat and we need to keep a close eye on him, we know about Cards and Quigley is a battering ram, it's not like we are going into the unknown.

They must have something about them to be top three for most of the season, I think you spell it m..o..n..e..y, but we need to be confident.

I would say the same when it comes to the Sutton as a team too. Although Davies, who got their goal, had something about him and led their line well.

Onwards and upwards and let's give it our all, whatever on Saturday.

 

[Holy Joe]

It was done very quickly.

View attachment 35963

Wow - how does that happen did we/Gus complain? Or does ref say he may have missed something and request a footage review?

 

[RHB]

Wow - how does that happen did we/Gus complain? Or does ref say he may have missed something and request a footage review?

One post on their board suggests we reported the incident retrospectively. I'm not sure how the poster would know that if we don't know.

---

Well then...

...can we set up a separate thread to dicuss just how snide Southend's recent move is?

Pure Colin Peake vibes from back in the day.

I hope they get nowhere near the playoffs.

Am I being naive? Would we have done the same?

 

[ColinMorrisWalksOnWater]

Just as snide as elbowing a player from the blind side eh?

 

[Mick]

My memory is so often wrong ............ but I think the first year of the play-offs we (Southend United) were in a race with Wolves to get into the automatic promotion places from Division 4. We just won that race* and Wolves ended up against Aldershot (who just got into the play-offs and had 367 points less than Wolves at the end of the standard league season). Needless to say Aldershot won the play-offs.

Hash tag: getintheplayoffs&everyonehasachanceespeciallyiftheyareonagoodrunofform


* And that included one of my favourite Roots Hall games - 1-0 to Southend - a header from Martin Ling I think.

They were somewhat different play-offs in those days.

First Aldershot, who were only 9 points behind Wolves as opposed to 367, had to play Bolton from Division Three which they won. Meanwhile Wolves disposed of Colchester who also finished on 9 points less than Wolves but with a one goal better goal difference than Aldershot.
That set up the final with Aldershot winning both legs.

Wolves won the division comfortably the following season.

 

[barryp1]

I think the points required will be at least 75.

That means we have to get at least 7 wins and 2 draws with only one loss or 8 wins.

 

[meerkat54]

I think we should all stop trying to give an optimistic outlook on the points needed for a playoff spot.
Because we ain’t going to get a playoff spot as we just aren’t good enough this season. Maybe next season with some better recruitment.
With all honesty can anybody say it’s been good? Surely mediocre at best. But what do I know following and supporting the club the past 58 years. Roll on next season

 

[RHB]

I think we should all stop trying to give an optimistic outlook on the points needed for a playoff spot.
Because we ain’t going to get a playoff spot as we just aren’t good enough this season. Maybe next season with some better recruitment.
With all honesty can anybody say it’s been good? Surely mediocre at best. But what do I know following and supporting the club the past 58 years. Roll on next season

Absolutely, back in FL2 where we belong, can't wait.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Absolutely, back in FL2 where we belong, can't wait.

That won't happen this season unfortunately but I agree we belong back in the EFL.

 

[Bar na bas]

I know "a few" fellow supporters have been a bit glum about how this season has gone, on the pitch. I am still very much in the "glad we have a team to support" camp, having only moved back to the area permanently just before the start of this current season, so I bought a season ticket for the first time in about 15 years, due to living the other side of the country. I enjoy the whole experience, of the walk to the Hall with a friend, watching the match with my cousin whilst we catch up on life, chatting to others in the stand around me, etc. The football is important but it is not the be all and end all. I can see why most people think we will not make the play-offs, and most days I share that view. BUT I still note a few things on the form side.

Here's the top 12 in the current form guide over the last ten matches, from The Fishy site:



Only two teams in the division have more points than us over the last ten games, which in our case has included 5 matches against other sides in the top 12, with wins over Halifax (2nd in the recent form guide), Altrincham (6th) and Aldershot (8th), and draws against Rochdale (7th) and Tamworth (11th). Only Barnet and Aldershot have scored more goals in their last 10 matches. Only Barnet have a better goal difference over the last 10 matches.

We are undoubtedly playing catch-up, but if we look at the season in terms of chunks of matches, we gained 14 points from our first 12 matches, 16 points from our next 12 matches, and 22 points from the last 12, so we have been steadily improving throughout the season. In our last 18 league games, we have 8 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats.

Sometimes, from the gloom and despondency on here, you would think we are in 20th position, and have not won in 13 games. I think it was Chris Millington, the Halifax manager who remarked on the strange murmurings coming from some of the Southend fans, in his remarks to the press after we beat them 3-1 back in January, to add to the 2-0 away win earlier in the season.

I thought I would look at the form guide a bit more. I think we can safely give up on the top 3 spots, haha, so here is the table from 4th down to 12th, showing the teams alongside games played and current points, as well as points per game in the last ten matches (as per The Fishy table); a projection of the points teams may gain in their remaining games based on current PPG over the last ten matches; the projected total points; and the projected position. That still has Southend finishing in 9th position, as they are at present, so that is probably quite realistic.

Pos	Team	Played	Pts	Pts, last 10	Ppg, last 10	Projected pts	Total pts	Proj'd pos'n
4	Oldham	37	62	14	1.4	12.6	74.6	6
5	Gateshead	36	60	13	1.3	13	73	8
6	Halifax	35	59	20	2	22	81	4
7	Rochdate	33	55	16	1.6	20.8	75.8	5
8	Altrincham	35	55	17	1.7	18.7	73.7	7
9	Southend	36	52	19	1.9	19	71	9
10	Eastleigh	37	52	14	1.4	12.6	64.6	10
11	Tamworth	37	48	14	1.4	12.6	60.6	12
12	Sutton	35	47	13	1.3	14.3	61.3	11

BUT, and it is a big but, but then again, I am an optimist, I like big buts, I cannot lie....

This Saturday, we play Forest Green Rovers, in 3rd - no home defeats this season yet, surely they are due one. And we still have to play Eastleigh and Sutton below us, but more significantly, Oldham and Gateshead above us. Both of the latter teams are in indifferent form. IF we could get say 2 wins and a draw from the next 3 matches, the position would look quite interesting, especially as April looks a bit easier.

Oh, and one last thing. IF we win on Saturday, we will only be 2 points behind where we were last season, using both Billericay Blue's "opponents" comparison and Smiffy's matchday comparison in the 2024/25 compared to 2023/24 thread, in terms of points gained and ignoring the ten point deduction. So effectively we would be 8 points net better off when taking the deduction into consideration. We had a strong finish last season, and missed out on the play-offs by 6 points, although I strongly suspect we will need more than the 71 points which was sufficient to place Halifax in 7th spot last year.

MAYBE I am slightly delusional. You may think there are far too many BUTs, IFs and MAYBEs in this post. BUT - I enjoy living life hopefully. If we don't do it this season, then there is always next season, and this time last year, that looked incredibly unlikely.

Up the Blues.

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

I know "a few" fellow supporters have been a bit glum about how this season has gone, on the pitch. I am still very much in the "glad we have a team to support" camp, having only moved back to the area permanently just before the start of this current season, so I bought a season ticket for the first time in about 15 years, due to living the other side of the country. I enjoy the whole experience, of the walk to the Hall with a friend, watching the match with my cousin whilst we catch up on life, chatting to others in the stand around me, etc. The football is important but it is not the be all and end all. I can see why most people think we will not make the play-offs, and most days I share that view. BUT I still note a few things on the form side.

Here's the top 12 in the current form guide over the last ten matches, from The Fishy site:

View attachment 35967

Only two teams in the division have more points than us over the last ten games, which in our case has included 5 matches against other sides in the top 12, with wins over Halifax (2nd in the recent form guide), Altrincham (6th) and Aldershot (8th), and draws against Rochdale (7th) and Tamworth (11th). Only Barnet and Aldershot have scored more goals in their last 10 matches. Only Barnet have a better goal difference over the last 10 matches.

We are undoubtedly playing catch-up, but if we look at the season in terms of chunks of matches, we gained 14 points from our first 12 matches, 16 points from our next 12 matches, and 22 points from the last 12, so we have been steadily improving throughout the season. In our last 18 league games, we have 8 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats.

Sometimes, from the gloom and despondency on here, you would think we are in 20th position, and have not won in 13 games. I think it was Chris Millington, the Halifax manager who remarked on the strange murmurings coming from some of the Southend fans, in his remarks to the press after we beat them 3-1 back in January, to add to the 2-0 away win earlier in the season.

I thought I would look at the form guide a bit more. I think we can safely give up on the top 3 spots, haha, so here is the table from 4th down to 12th, showing the teams alongside games played and current points, as well as points per game in the last ten matches (as per The Fishy table); a projection of the points teams may gain in their remaining games based on current PPG over the last ten matches; the projected total points; and the projected position. That still has Southend finishing in 9th position, as they are at present, so that is probably quite realistic.

Pos	Team	Played	Pts	Pts, last 10	Ppg, last 10	Projected pts	Total pts	Proj'd pos'n
4	Oldham	37	62	14	1.4	12.6	74.6	6
5	Gateshead	36	60	13	1.3	13	73	8
6	Halifax	35	59	20	2	22	81	4
7	Rochdate	33	55	16	1.6	20.8	75.8	5
8	Altrincham	35	55	17	1.7	18.7	73.7	7
9	Southend	36	52	19	1.9	19	71	9
10	Eastleigh	37	52	14	1.4	12.6	64.6	10
11	Tamworth	37	48	14	1.4	12.6	60.6	12
12	Sutton	35	47	13	1.3	14.3	61.3	11

BUT, and it is a big but, but then again, I am an optimist, I like big buts, I cannot lie....

This Saturday, we play Forest Green Rovers, in 3rd - no home defeats this season yet, surely they are due one. And we still have to play Eastleigh and Sutton below us, but more significantly, Oldham and Gateshead above us. Both of the latter teams are in indifferent form. IF we could get say 2 wins and a draw from the next 3 matches, the position would look quite interesting, especially as April looks a bit easier.

Oh, and one last thing. IF we win on Saturday, we will only be 2 points behind where we were last season, using both Billericay Blue's "opponents" comparison and Smiffy's matchday comparison in the 2024/25 compared to 2023/24 thread, in terms of points gained and ignoring the ten point deduction. So effectively we would be 8 points net better off when taking the deduction into consideration. We had a strong finish last season, and missed out on the play-offs by 6 points, although I strongly suspect we will need more than the 71 points which was sufficient to place Halifax in 7th spot last year.

MAYBE I am slightly delusional. You may think there are far too many BUTs, IFs and MAYBEs in this post. BUT - I enjoy living life hopefully. If we don't do it this season, then there is always next season, and this time last year, that looked incredibly unlikely.

Up the Blues.

Thank you for this post. I have been close to slitting my wrists reading the doom and gloom from most people on this thread.

 

[shrimpled]

I know "a few" fellow supporters have been a bit glum about how this season has gone, on the pitch. I am still very much in the "glad we have a team to support" camp, having only moved back to the area permanently just before the start of this current season, so I bought a season ticket for the first time in about 15 years, due to living the other side of the country. I enjoy the whole experience, of the walk to the Hall with a friend, watching the match with my cousin whilst we catch up on life, chatting to others in the stand around me, etc. The football is important but it is not the be all and end all. I can see why most people think we will not make the play-offs, and most days I share that view. BUT I still note a few things on the form side.

Here's the top 12 in the current form guide over the last ten matches, from The Fishy site:

View attachment 35967

Only two teams in the division have more points than us over the last ten games, which in our case has included 5 matches against other sides in the top 12, with wins over Halifax (2nd in the recent form guide), Altrincham (6th) and Aldershot (8th), and draws against Rochdale (7th) and Tamworth (11th). Only Barnet and Aldershot have scored more goals in their last 10 matches. Only Barnet have a better goal difference over the last 10 matches.

We are undoubtedly playing catch-up, but if we look at the season in terms of chunks of matches, we gained 14 points from our first 12 matches, 16 points from our next 12 matches, and 22 points from the last 12, so we have been steadily improving throughout the season. In our last 18 league games, we have 8 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats.

Sometimes, from the gloom and despondency on here, you would think we are in 20th position, and have not won in 13 games. I think it was Chris Millington, the Halifax manager who remarked on the strange murmurings coming from some of the Southend fans, in his remarks to the press after we beat them 3-1 back in January, to add to the 2-0 away win earlier in the season.

I thought I would look at the form guide a bit more. I think we can safely give up on the top 3 spots, haha, so here is the table from 4th down to 12th, showing the teams alongside games played and current points, as well as points per game in the last ten matches (as per The Fishy table); a projection of the points teams may gain in their remaining games based on current PPG over the last ten matches; the projected total points; and the projected position. That still has Southend finishing in 9th position, as they are at present, so that is probably quite realistic.

Pos	Team	Played	Pts	Pts, last 10	Ppg, last 10	Projected pts	Total pts	Proj'd pos'n
4	Oldham	37	62	14	1.4	12.6	74.6	6
5	Gateshead	36	60	13	1.3	13	73	8
6	Halifax	35	59	20	2	22	81	4
7	Rochdate	33	55	16	1.6	20.8	75.8	5
8	Altrincham	35	55	17	1.7	18.7	73.7	7
9	Southend	36	52	19	1.9	19	71	9
10	Eastleigh	37	52	14	1.4	12.6	64.6	10
11	Tamworth	37	48	14	1.4	12.6	60.6	12
12	Sutton	35	47	13	1.3	14.3	61.3	11

BUT, and it is a big but, but then again, I am an optimist, I like big buts, I cannot lie....

This Saturday, we play Forest Green Rovers, in 3rd - no home defeats this season yet, surely they are due one. And we still have to play Eastleigh and Sutton below us, but more significantly, Oldham and Gateshead above us. Both of the latter teams are in indifferent form. IF we could get say 2 wins and a draw from the next 3 matches, the position would look quite interesting, especially as April looks a bit easier.

Oh, and one last thing. IF we win on Saturday, we will only be 2 points behind where we were last season, using both Billericay Blue's "opponents" comparison and Smiffy's matchday comparison in the 2024/25 compared to 2023/24 thread, in terms of points gained and ignoring the ten point deduction. So effectively we would be 8 points net better off when taking the deduction into consideration. We had a strong finish last season, and missed out on the play-offs by 6 points, although I strongly suspect we will need more than the 71 points which was sufficient to place Halifax in 7th spot last year.

MAYBE I am slightly delusional. You may think there are far too many BUTs, IFs and MAYBEs in this post. BUT - I enjoy living life hopefully. If we don't do it this season, then there is always next season, and this time last year, that looked incredibly unlikely.

Up the Blues.

So you're saying there's a chance?

Great post, btw. I also think this shows we're getting better with time. I strongly suspect we won't get into the play off this season, we haven't been consistent enough but I have a very good feeling about next season.

 

[annie1954]

So you're saying there's a chance?

Great post, btw. I also think this shows we're getting better with time. I strongly suspect we won't get into the play off this season, we haven't been consistent enough but I have a very good feeling about next season.

Fully agree a few good signings in the summer and I’m sure a better season with a stronger squad COYB