Play-Offs

[GBJ]

A slightly disappointing set of results last night, but nothing has really changed for us. We still need to win 7 of our remaining 10 fixtures. It’s a tall ask, but it’s doable. Personally I feel we’ll fall short by a couple of results.

Here’s my predictions for the remainder of the season

Forest Green - L
Eastleigh - D
Boston - W
Oldham - D
Sutton - D
Solihull - W
Braintree - D
Ebbsfleet - W
Wealdstone - W
Gateshead - L

Final points tally of 68, which will be a couple short I reckon.

 

[tottenham541]

No chance, we are basically 7 points off playoffs at best as Rochdale have games in hand, we need to win the next two at least just to put pressure on teams above as a fair few results to go our way as well as games are now running out, we don’t have many games left at home either but not sure if that’s a good thing or not, tough ask.

 

[Smiffy]

This is roughly how 4th to 10th will look by season end, if current season form is maintained.

As you can see the target could be as much as 77 points this season to scrape into 7th spot. A very high total driven by those in 4th to 7th with very similar high ppg.

This would require us to up our current PPG of 1.44 to a massive 2.78 PPG over the last 9 games to give us a shot. In short, around 8 wins and a draw should do it....


--------------------------------------
4. Halifax 1.69 ppg = 78 points
5. Oldham 1.68 ppg = 77 points
6. Gateshead 1.67 ppg = 77 points
7. Rochdale 1.67 ppg = 77 points
--------------------------------------
8. Altrincham 1.57 ppg = 72 points
9. SOUTHEND 1.44 ppg = 66 points
10. Eastleigh 1.41 ppg = 65 points


Points required for 7th spot in last 5 seasons (46 game seasons only): 71, 71, 74, 73, 75 gives an average of 73 points required for 7th spot.

So as a minimum we likely need 7 wins from 10 to have even a slight chance of backdooring it.

 

[Stuart W]

Delighted that Forest Green won again last night - simply because they are now unbeaten in 18 home league games and this record is just waiting to be ended. A Sutton win last night and I would have been far more worried about Saturday. As it is I really fancy us on Saturday.

 

[Stuart W]

This is roughly how 4th to 10th will look by season end, if current season form is maintained.

As you can see the target could be as much as 77 points this season to scrape into 7th spot.

This would require us to up our current PPG of 1.44 to a massive 2.78 PPG over the last 9 games to give us a shot. In short, around 8 wins and a draw should do it....

--------------------------------------
4. Halifax 1.69 ppg = 78 points
5. Oldham 1.68 ppg = 77 points
6. Gateshead 1.67 ppg = 77 points
7. Rochdale 1.67 ppg = 77 points
--------------------------------------
8. Altrincham 1.57 ppg = 72 points
9. SOUTHEND 1.44 ppg = 66 points
10. Eastleigh 1.41 ppg = 65 points

No disrespect Smiffy, but looking at average points per game over a season is not a suitable predictive measure. Recent trends and crucially, who each club has still to play, need to be considered. More specifically the remaining games where Top Ten teams are playing each other will be a key factor. For us this will be Forest Green (a), Eastleigh (a) Gateshead (a) and Oldham (h).

 

[Smiffy]

No disrespect Smiffy, but looking at average points per game over a season is not a suitable predictive measure. Recent trends and crucially, who each club has still to play, need to be considered. More specifically the remaining games where Top Ten teams are playing each other will be a key factor. For us this will be Forest Green (a), Eastleigh (a) Gateshead (a) and Oldham (h).

Don't disagree. But gives a feel for the task ahead.

Further down my post I do suggest 73 points is likely required, going on past averages. 7 wins from 10. Tough!

 

[Smiffy]

Here's one predicted table I have seen. Not sure how they have worked it out. They also have us finishing on 66 points.

Vanarama National League | League Table | Predicted Final League Table | 2024-2025 | Football Web Pages

Live Football Scores, League Tables, Form Guides, Attendances, Latest News and other stats from the Premier League, Football League and Non-League football

www.footballwebpages.co.uk

 

[pottster]

Here's one predicted table I have seen. Not sure how they have worked it out. They also have us finishing on 66 points.

Vanarama National League | League Table | Predicted Final League Table | 2024-2025 | Football Web Pages

Live Football Scores, League Tables, Form Guides, Attendances, Latest News and other stats from the Premier League, Football League and Non-League football

www.footballwebpages.co.uk

I'd imagine it's points per game earned so far. So far we've have 1.44 points per game. That would have us finish on 66. Which is were I think we will end up

 

[dusterman]

Here's one predicted table I have seen. Not sure how they have worked it out. They also have us finishing on 66 points.

Vanarama National League | League Table | Predicted Final League Table | 2024-2025 | Football Web Pages

Live Football Scores, League Tables, Form Guides, Attendances, Latest News and other stats from the Premier League, Football League and Non-League football

www.footballwebpages.co.uk

Got Gateshead tumbling out the playoffs too, not sure I see that happening.

I’ll go for 72 points for the mighty Shrimpers.

 

[Smiffy]

I'd imagine it's points per game earned so far. So far we've have 1.44 points per game. That would have us finish on 66. Which is were I think we will end up

My table I posted above was calculated on PPG and this one is different, so god knows!

I agree though, 66 points as a total feels about right for us, unless we go on some mental run.

 

[Barling Magna]

Don't disagree. But gives a feel for the task ahead.

Further down my post I do suggest 73 points is likely required, going on past averages. 7 wins from 9. Tough!

Not quite so tough. We have 10 games left.

 

[Grayson]

No I haven't but I'm quite willing to place one with you for a tenner that we won't make the playoffs.Loser donates the tenner to SZ. Interested?

You want evens about a 90% chance. Ha.

 

[Blues4LifeDan]

Here's one predicted table I have seen. Not sure how they have worked it out. They also have us finishing on 66 points.

Vanarama National League | League Table | Predicted Final League Table | 2024-2025 | Football Web Pages

Live Football Scores, League Tables, Form Guides, Attendances, Latest News and other stats from the Premier League, Football League and Non-League football

www.footballwebpages.co.uk

Where on earth did they get that from? Altrincham have just lost two in a row. I'm sure that wasn't factored in. It's why you can't ever truly predict these things. A team, not necessarily us, can always go on a run of winning 5 games in a row. It's happened so often. Look at Crewe sneaking into 7th when we amassed 80 odd points and the went on to beat us. Happens so often.

Saturday is huge. If we could get a win, it will make things so interesting!

 

[Rattus Norvegicus]

Where on earth did they get that from? Altrincham have just lost two in a row. I'm sure that wasn't factored in. It's why you can't ever truly predict these things. A team, not necessarily us, can always go on a run of winning 5 games in a row. It's happened so often. Look at Crewe sneaking into 7th when we amassed 80 odd points and the went on to beat us. Happens so often.

Saturday is huge. If we could get a win, it will make things so interesting!

My memory is so often wrong ............ but I think the first year of the play-offs we (Southend United) were in a race with Wolves to get into the automatic promotion places from Division 4. We just won that race* and Wolves ended up against Aldershot (who just got into the play-offs and had 367 points less than Wolves at the end of the standard league season). Needless to say Aldershot won the play-offs.

Hash tag: getintheplayoffs&everyonehasachanceespeciallyiftheyareonagoodrunofform


* And that included one of my favourite Roots Hall games - 1-0 to Southend - a header from Martin Ling I think.

 

[Leigh_Seasider]

No I haven't but I'm quite willing to place one with you for a tenner that we won't make the playoffs.Loser donates the tenner to SZ. Interested?

Didn’t you make a similar bet about England? Are you just a glass half full type of bloke or do you enjoy winding people up? Genuinely interested. You seem to want your team and country of birth to fail, just so you can smugly say “I told you so”.

 

[Shrimp and two veg]

I can see us beating every team left to play. Should be enough eh.
Not a betting man in the slightest but if i was i'd put the house on with Tangled.
We are good upfront, a handful in midfield and strong at the back with a great shot stopper and a decent squad as backup.
Bring them all on i say.

 

[Nestudas]

Didn’t you make a similar bet about England? Are you just a glass half full type of bloke or do you enjoy winding people up? Genuinely interested. You seem to want your team and country of birth to fail, just so you can smugly say “I told you so”.

Seeing as we appear to be his 3rd team, it is no surprise really.

 

[THE SEVENTIES NORTH BANK]

Didn’t you make a similar bet about England? Are you just a glass half full type of bloke or do you enjoy winding people up? Genuinely interested. You seem to want your team and country of birth to fail, just so you can smugly say “I told you so”.

Tangled, others seem to be onto you as well, Lol. Tangled is the biggest wind up merchant on Shrimperzone. That's why he finishes a lot of his wind up comments with a wink. He loves it. He's been loving the Kev in/out thread.

 

[THE SEVENTIES NORTH BANK]

No I haven't but I'm quite willing to place one with you for a tenner that we won't make the playoffs.Loser donates the tenner to SZ. Interested?

Well, according to the bookies, and they're the best judges at pricing these things up, we're 4/1 to make the play-offs. So that means you're 1 to 4 odds on, to be right, that we won't make the play-offs, Tangled.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

You want evens about a 90% chance. Ha.

I'd have been quite happy to make that bet back in Nov.