Hard or Soft Brexit?

[yogi bear up the cagire]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37755668

 

[Medway Blue]

Just propose a mutually-beneficial free trade deal. Nothing more. If the EU wants to reject it then we take our business elsewhere.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Just propose a mutually-beneficial free trade deal. Nothing more. If the EU wants to reject it then we take our business elsewhere.

As I understand it the UK will not propose anything, it's the EU who will direct the negociations once article 50 is invoked.

 

[Medway Blue]

As I understand it the UK will not propose anything, it's the EU who will direct the negociations once article 50 is invoked.

The EU directing everything? There's something new!

 

[leeblue]

Just propose a mutually-beneficial free trade deal. Nothing more. If the EU wants to reject it then we take our business elsewhere.

I kind of see this as our hardliners. ...bmw, Mercedes. .In fact all german cars, then peugeot, renault, citroen....We will have a high tarriff for you to sell in the UK.....and so on and so on....We are a huge customer for the EU and that must be a huge factor in our favour.

 

[callan]

As I understand it the UK will not propose anything, it's the EU who will direct the negociations once article 50 is invoked.

If there's to be any negotiations then there will undoubtedly be proposals....

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

If it is at all possible to simplify the highly complex negotiations following the evoking of article 50, it is the balance between economic and political considerations. Those on the Brexit side believe the EU won't cut its nose to spike its face in giving the UK a bad deal and are thus banking on economic factors being the more important impetus in negotiations. On this side of the Channel I get the feeling political arguments will prove the stronger (look at the CETA deal) and after all, aren't the actions or non-actions from May, politically motivated?
Is there Brexit stategy? For the UK's sake one can only hope there is more substance in what is not being revealed than the contradicting evidence we are being fed. A short while ago May was steadfast in her priority of controlling immigration, with all that would imply, considering the EU's insistance of free movement of labour. Everyone prepares for a 'hard Brexit'. Now, yesterday in the Commons, she comes out with, there is "no suggestion" of a hard Brexit..........Oh No??????? How is she going to square the circle or circle the square? For a moment I can understand Nicola Sturgeon's frustration and bemusement.
All in all it appears to me as a high stakes poker game, who has the best hand? who is bluffing? The fact that it's the EU who will deal the cards, may indicate something.:winking:

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

"But while regional Belgian politics is complex at the best of times, this is also an example of the EU as a whole having to listen to local concerns.

Mounting opposition to free trade deals in Europe has been a grass roots rebellion - part of the broader mood of anti-globalisation that is seeping across the EU and beyond.
And if that means that the trade deal with Canada has to be delayed, and amended, that might be better in the long term than failing to listen once again."



http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37756284

 

[callan]

The fact that it's the EU who will deal the cards, may indicate something.:winking:

Are you able to back this fact up?....or is it just wish full thinking on your part?

 

[Ricky Otto]

I kind of see this as our hardliners. ...bmw, Mercedes. .In fact all german cars, then peugeot, renault, citroen....We will have a high tarriff for you to sell in the UK.....and so on and so on....We are a huge customer for the EU and that must be a huge factor in our favour.

Both sides hold trump cards, the EU could easily deny the passporting rights financial services need. If they do we will see a lot of city based businesses move and a lot of job losses. Hardlining is not the way forward, there is a lot of posturing on both sides but I really hope that both sides are sensible. Brexiters have to realise that they won't get this immigrant free, we make all the decisions utopia. On the other side us remainers have to respect that leave won and this is happening. It wasn't a landslide so the opinion is very split, we have to look at damage limitation whilst also trying to deliver some of what the winning leave vote wanted. For me this is all about compromise.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Are you able to back this fact up?....or is it just wish full thinking on your part?

I had read this a number of times but don't remember exactly where.. I took a couple of minutes researching this but it seems clear enough.......and the source is impecable! :smile:



"Once the UK has triggered Article 50,the European Council – excluding the UK – will set out guidelines for the withdrawal negotiations through unanimous agreement. These guidelines will be high-level and are unlikely to cover technical issues or the substance of the agreement; they act as a steer for the Commission, which will draft a more detailed mandate. These guidelines will be published. In reality, the Council will not wait for Article 50 to be triggered before drafting these guidelines – Council staff, with input from member states, will start preparing a draft in advance of the Article 50 notification."

http://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/brexit/brexit-brief-eu’s-role-brexit-negotiations

 

[callan]

I had read this a number of times but don't remember exactly where.. I took a couple of minutes researching this but it seems clear enough.......and the source is impecable! :smile:



"Once the UK has triggered Article 50,the European Council – excluding the UK – will set out guidelines for the withdrawal negotiations through unanimous agreement. These guidelines will be high-level and are unlikely to cover technical issues or the substance of the agreement; they act as a steer for the Commission, which will draft a more detailed mandate. These guidelines will be published. In reality, the Council will not wait for Article 50 to be triggered before drafting these guidelines – Council staff, with input from member states, will start preparing a draft in advance of the Article 50 notification."

http://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/brexit/brexit-brief-eu’s-role-brexit-negotiations

This is just a framework for how the EU will seek to negotiate....assuming they can overcome the tensions that your impeccable source refers to....it doesn't give them any particular strength at all, just lays out the guidelines for their own negotiating team.

 

[callan]

Both sides hold trump cards, the EU could easily deny the passporting rights financial services need. If they do we will see a lot of city based businesses move and a lot of job losses. Hardlining is not the way forward, there is a lot of posturing on both sides but I really hope that both sides are sensible. Brexiters have to realise that they won't get this immigrant free, we make all the decisions utopia. On the other side us remainers have to respect that leave won and this is happening. It wasn't a landslide so the opinion is very split, we have to look at damage limitation whilst also trying to deliver some of what the winning leave vote wanted. For me this is all about compromise.

From what I can see so far the leave side appear to be hardening on Free movement, as much as the EU....my personal view is if the EU are adamament that this is a must have then they need to pay for it....via passporting rights and full access to the single market....in addition to yearly payments based on the amount of free movement into the UK by EU citizens (net figure).

 

[Ricky Otto]

From what I can see so far the leave side appear to be hardening on Free movement, as much as the EU....my personal view is if the EU are adamament that this is a must have then they need to pay for it....via passporting rights and full access to the single market....in addition to yearly payments based on the amount of free movement into the UK by EU citizens (net figure).

Yes, pretty much as I see it.

Not sure we'll get all that, they aren't going to make it easy. But passporting and full access to single market have to be the our priority

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

"It is likely that the European Council will then hand over to the European Commission and the Council of the EU to run the detailed negotiations.

Using the European Council’s guidelines as a starting point, the Commission will draw on its legal, technical and policy expertise to draft a more detailed mandate for the negotiations, including recommendations on each area under negotiation. This mandate may also cover the process through which the negotiations will be conducted, and working arrangements between the Council and the Commission."

Anyway, good luck with all that, I hope it proves worth the journey in the end. It's certainly what you and the government (well, quite a lot of them) believe.

 

[callan]

"It is likely that the European Council will then hand over to the European Commission and the Council of the EU to run the detailed negotiations.

Using the European Council’s guidelines as a starting point, the Commission will draw on its legal, technical and policy expertise to draft a more detailed mandate for the negotiations, including recommendations on each area under negotiation. This mandate may also cover the process through which the negotiations will be conducted, and working arrangements between the Council and the Commission."

Anyway, good luck with all that, I hope it proves worth the journey in the end. It's certainly what you and the government (well, quite a lot of them) believe.

You seem to be cherry picking stuff for no apparent reason?

Most of what you're copying and pasting are the EU guidelines for how their framework is to negotiate, which is covered by articles 50 and 218.

218 is the prominent article of the two in regards negotiation and its hierarchy.

You seem to be labouring under a misapprehension that by having articles this gives them an edge over the negotiations....it doesn't.

The EU will have a position as will the UK in terms of what they want, and it will be up to the negotiating teams on both sides to turn Political, and economic will into reality.

Failure to achieve a deal will mean that the UK will naturally go to WTO terms on both goods and services, and trade will continue under its terms and conditions.

For the EU and UK this means tariffs although I shouldn't be too surprised if the UK quickly moves to zero on its own duties.

Ultimately both sides are capable of damaging the other, however that was never the intention (in my mind) of Brexit, and this view amongst certain factions of the EU and indeed the Remain camp that democracy should be punished is totally abhorrent.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

You seem to be cherry picking stuff for no apparent reason?

Most of what you're copying and pasting are the EU guidelines for how their framework is to negotiate, which is covered by articles 50 and 218.

218 is the prominent article of the two in regards negotiation and its hierarchy.

You seem to be labouring under a misapprehension that by having articles this gives them an edge over the negotiations....it doesn't.

The EU will have a position as will the UK in terms of what they want, and it will be up to the negotiating teams on both sides to turn Political, and economic will into reality.

Failure to achieve a deal will mean that the UK will naturally go to WTO terms on both goods and services, and trade will continue under its terms and conditions.

For the EU and UK this means tariffs although I shouldn't be too surprised if the UK quickly moves to zero on its own duties.

Ultimately both sides are capable of damaging the other, however that was never the intention (in my mind) of Brexit, and this view amongst certain factions of the EU and indeed the Remain camp that democracy should be punished is totally abhorrent.

You seem extremely well versed in the procedures and processes of the forthcoming negotiations, perhaps you should offer your services, the UK side is going to need quite a lot of manpower. Can you speak fluent french?.........it may help:winking: Of course both sides will have their respective positions although the little coming from the UK side appears both confusing and contradictory. Anyway, as I said good luck over the following years (possibly many, unless the UK decides to walk away) If May manages to have her cake and eat it at the same time, she will deserve great credit for her negotiating performance.
Whatever you and your followers intentions may have been in supporting and celebrating the victory of Brexit, the pain it will inflict on the EU, let alone the UK, will no doubt be substantial. It can be no wonder that it has been badly received on the continent. The energy, time, resources and money it will take to disentangle the UK from its complicated attachment to the EU will amuse no one. The thing that continues to amaze me is that the s**t stirrers in this affair generally expect to come out smelling of roses and with a beautifully packaged, advantageous agreement and a pat on the back from the EU members. Personally, I'm expecting a failure and as you indicated, the Uk going to WTO terms and conditions.
It is however, encourging to see that you are such a strong advocate of democracy and the people's will. I'm therefore certain you must be amongst the number advocating a second referendum, when the terms of the treaty, or their irretrievable break down is announced. Surely something clear, writ in black and white needs to be offered the the British public? Something better to decide upon than the half truths, lies and miscalculations offered by both sides last June.

 

[mrsblue]

You seem extremely well versed in the procedures and processes of the forthcoming negotiations, perhaps you should offer your services, the UK side is going to need quite a lot of manpower. Can you speak fluent french?.........it may help:winking: Of course both sides will have their respective positions although the little coming from the UK side appears both confusing and contradictory. Anyway, as I said good luck over the following years (possibly many, unless the UK decides to walk away) If May manages to have her cake and eat it at the same time, she will deserve great credit for her negotiating performance.
Whatever you and your followers intentions may have been in supporting and celebrating the victory of Brexit, the pain it will inflict on the EU, let alone the UK, will no doubt be substantial. It can be no wonder that it has been badly received on the continent. The energy, time, resources and money it will take to disentangle the UK from its complicated attachment to the EU will amuse no one. The thing that continues to amaze me is that the s**t stirrers in this affair generally expect to come out smelling of roses and with a beautifully packaged, advantageous agreement and a pat on the back from the EU members. Personally, I'm expecting a failure and as you indicated, the Uk going to WTO terms and conditions.
It is however, encourging to see that you are such a strong advocate of democracy and the people's will. I'm therefore certain you must be amongst the number advocating a second referendum, when the terms of the treaty, or their irretrievable break down is announced. Surely something clear, writ in black and white needs to be offered the the British public? Something better to decide upon than the half truths, lies and miscalculations offered by both sides last June.

The EU is a machine run by the few and destroying the many,once the UK prosper then others will follow,the EU experiment is dead in the water.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

The EU is a dysfunctional social experiment that has become corrupt and moribund, run by an unelected political clique answerable to no-one and "out of touch" with the populace. Once left, and after a hesitant, turbulent and uncertain decade the UK will prosper then others will follow, the EU experiment is in terminal decline.

Well put mrsblue, I couldn't have put it better myself.:winking:

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Not exactly the 'soft' related to in the title of this thread but still, I feel, very relevant. Not often that i quote articles from Skynews but it sums up much of the sadness that I and fellow Europeans feel about the direction Britain is taking at the moment. Please don't come back with the claptrap about Britain still being a strong part of Europe, outside the EU.

http://news.sky.com/story/sky-views...-vanishing-when-europe-needs-it-most-10632551