General betting

[osymandus]

If you believe Clegg he's also ruled out propping up Labour, although IMO that is the more likely scenario. The SNP & Plaid Cymru would normally support Labour and the Ulster Unionists would side with the Tories. It will be interesting to see the horse trading that will happen in the event of a hung parliament.

That's why im intrigued by the way Lib Dem's have distanced themselves from both parties , and what kind of deals will need to be done . Logic says Lab/Lib Dem.

Any party with an idea to enact electoral re-form and the will and ability to do it , is not someone that certain parties will want getting in ! Especially if it is given in a referendum . AS you say we shall see.

 

[canveyshrimper]

That's why im intrigued by the way Lib Dem's have distanced themselves from both parties , and what kind of deals will need to be done . Logic says Lab/Lib Dem.

Any party with an idea to enact electoral re-form and the will and ability to do it , is not someone that certain parties will want getting in ! Especially if it is given in a referendum . AS you say we shall see.

I can see why the Lib Dems would distance themselves from either party. If they said for instance they would only work with Labour then people could (probably rightly) say that a vote for the LibDems is a vote for Labour, so why vote for them?

I was reading an article yesterday that the Conservatives could have more votes than Labour, but still be the minority party. Therefore electoral reform may well benefit them more than the other parties.

I wouldn't believe Brown on giving a referendum on electoral reform, given this is the same Gordon Brown who promised along with Blair in their manifesto in 2005 we would have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

 

[dloman]

In truth i could not see the British public putting up with a Lab/Lib Dem pact, especially if Brown was still in charge, i firmly believe it would be carnage and would put the country back years and be totally unworkable.

 

[Manchester Shrimper]

In truth i could not see the British public putting up with a Lab/Lib Dem pact, especially if Brown was still in charge, i firmly believe it would be carnage and would put the country back years and be totally unworkable.

What makes you say that? I don't think Labour supporters or Lib Dem supporters would have major problems with getting in bed with the other if it was the price of power. In fact, some of the old-school Labour back-benchers are probably more keen on some of the Lib Dem policies than they are on what Brown and co have been doing of late. One way of looking at it is if there was a governing coalition it'd be the first time the majority of the electorate would have voted for the government since the 30s!!

Admittedly even if the two parties did find enough common ground to govern together, chances are it may well break down later and we'd have another election in a couple of years but countries like Germany and Italy manage to make coalition government work, I don't see why our politicians can't be grown up enough to work together.

 

[Manchester Shrimper]

I don't think the opinion polls are pointing towards a hung parliament.

That assumes an Uniform National Swing. What happens is that the swing in the marginals tends to be more pronounced.

I therefore think a UNS of about 5% would translate to something more like a 7% swing in the marginals, which should be able to push the Tories into a narrow majority.

There's a MORI poll out for Reuters of the marginals where the Tories need between a 5 and a 9% swing, which seems to backs this up*, as it shows the Tories with a swing of 5.5% from last time out.

*although there's no overall poll from MORI to compare it to.

Firstly, there was a new MORI poll out yesterday implying Tories are still trailing by a couple of points in the marginals they need to win to get a majority.

Secondly, the Lib Dems are a crucial factor as to whether it'd be a hung parliament. Support for them traditionally increases during the campaign because of increased media coverage and they have the bonus of Nick Clegg getting the change to challenge the 'other two' in the TV debates.

I'm not saying it's a dead cert but you've got to agree- 15/8's pretty good value.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

Firstly, there was a new MORI poll out yesterday implying Tories are still trailing by a couple of points in the marginals they need to win to get a majority.

Secondly, the Lib Dems are a crucial factor as to whether it'd be a hung parliament. Support for them traditionally increases during the campaign because of increased media coverage and they have the bonus of Nick Clegg getting the change to challenge the 'other two' in the TV debates.

I'm not saying it's a dead cert but you've got to agree- 15/8's pretty good value.

That was the MORI poll I was referring to.

The 6.9% swing the article claims is needed, is a national swing. In reality there is no such thing as a national swing. In some areas it will be higher that the national average, in other areas it will be lower. I think with a swing of 5.5% in the marginals, the Tories are going to be there or thereabouts particularly as MORI don't weigh for political bias, so invariably overstate Labour.

At the moment it's all margin of error stuff, and I suppose on that basis it isn't a bad bet, but personally I don't fancy that.

I do however agree that the Lib Dems will probably poll better than their numbers currently suggest.

 

[Napster]

MORI's boss Peter Kellner is married to Baroness Ashton, a Labour peer, which is always worth remembering.

 

[Mad Cyril]

MORI's boss Peter Kellner is married to Baroness Ashton, a Labour peer, which is always worth remembering.

****, I forgot to send them a wedding anniversary card.

 

[BILLERICAY BLUE]

James, what are the latest odds on whether the Tories will have a majority.

There was a poll of 100 key marginals in the DT today stating that the Tories have a 12 point lead (41-29) over Labour, meaning they will have a clear majority if replicated at the election.

 

[Uncle Leo]

James, what are the latest odds on whether the Tories will have a majority.

There was a poll of 100 key marginals in the DT today stating that the Tories have a 12 point lead (41-29) over Labour, meaning they will have a clear majority if replicated at the election.

We go 4/7 on the Tories gaining a majority.

Last time I checked, if the favourite in the betting were to win every seat, then the Conservatives would have a majority of 12.

By the way, for tonight's debate, we go:

Clegg 5/4
Cameron 11/8
Brown 10/3

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

James, what are the latest odds on whether the Tories will have a majority.

There was a poll of 100 key marginals in the DT today stating that the Tories have a 12 point lead (41-29) over Labour, meaning they will have a clear majority if replicated at the election.

And, actually, isn't that the point? It doesn't really matter how the Tories are doing nationwide; it simply matters how they're doing in their key swing seats. If they can replicate that on polling day, they'll win...

Matt

 

[BILLERICAY BLUE]

And, actually, isn't that the point? It doesn't really matter how the Tories are doing nationwide; it simply matters how they're doing in their key swing seats. If they can replicate that on polling day, they'll win...

Matt

Exactly....

 

[BILLERICAY BLUE]

We go 4/7 on the Tories gaining a majority.

Last time I checked, if the favourite in the betting were to win every seat, then the Conservatives would have a majority of 12.

By the way, for tonight's debate, we go:

Clegg 5/4
Cameron 11/8
Brown 10/3

Thanks mate.

11/8 on Cameron is a good bet. I saw him at PMQ's last week, and he wiped the floor with Brown.

I went to school with Tory communications chief Andy Coulson, who's been prepping Cameron for the debates.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Thanks mate.

11/8 on Cameron is a good bet. I saw him at PMQ's last week, and he wiped the floor with Brown.

I went to school with Tory communications chief Andy Coulson, who's been prepping Cameron for the debates.

Erstwhile editor of the News of the World, yes?

 

[BILLERICAY BLUE]

Erstwhile editor of the News of the World, yes?

Yep, and former editor of Bizzare in The Sun....

 

[canveyshrimper]

Yep, and former editor of Bizzare in The Sun....

As was another former News of the Screws editor the tosser Piers Morgan.

 

[BILLERICAY BLUE]

I don't know why people hate Piers so much. He doesn't take himself anywhere near as seriously as people think.

Him and Andy Coulson are best mates...

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

I don't know why people hate Piers so much. He doesn't take himself anywhere near as seriously as people think.

Him and Andy Coulson are best mates...

Piers was actually extremely popular at the Mirror - the missus says (from her time at the Sunday Mirror) that he struck her as a good egg, which is quite rare in the world of newspapers.

Isn't "The F***er" in The Thick of It modelled on Coulson?

Matt

 

[BILLERICAY BLUE]

Piers was actually extremely popular at the Mirror - the missus says (from her time at the Sunday Mirror) that he struck her as a good egg, which is quite rare in the world of newspapers.

Isn't "The F***er" in The Thick of It modelled on Coulson?

Matt

Never watched it, might have to now....

 

[Dave Smiths Love Child]

Piers was actually extremely popular at the Mirror - the missus says (from her time at the Sunday Mirror) that he struck her as a good egg, which is quite rare in the world of newspapers.

Isn't "The F***er" in The Thick of It modelled on Coulson?

Matt

Was he popular because he gave everyone the " Viglen " share advice, funny how he survived that !!!!

By the way I worked at Mirror Group for 25 years, in Maxwell days and after, and you will find he wanted to be like Coulson with his daft headlines, rather than concentrate on what the paper was known for on reporting.

Cassandra would be spinning in his grave if alive;)