General betting

[Uncle Leo]

Loads of betting opportunities out there; the big firms now bet on every single consituency, although many of these are of course dead rubbers from a betting perspective. Anyway, here are a few markets to get discussion going....

To win the most seats

Conservatives 1/5 (SkyBet)
Labour 5/1 (Ladbrokes)
Lib Dems 300/1 (Sportingbet)

Overall majority

Conservatives 8/13 (BetFred, William Hill)
No overall majority 15/8 (Ladbrokes)
Labour 11/1 (bet365)
Lib Dems 300/1 (Sportingbet)

Castle Point (all prices Ladbrokes)

Conservatives 1/4
Bob Spink 3/1
Labour 14/1
Lib Dems 100/1

Rochford and Southend East (all prices Ladbrokes)

Conservatives 1/500
Labour 20/1
Libe Dems 100/1
UKIP 100/1
BNP 100/1

Southend West (all prices Ladbrokes)

Conservatives 1/10
Lib Dems 10/1
Labour 100/1
UKIP 100/1
BNP 100/1
English Democrats 100/1

 

[chadded]

I don't necessarily want it to happen, or expect it to happen, but it wouldn't suprise me if the Lib Dems got in.

 

[MK Shrimper]

I don't necessarily want it to happen, or expect it to happen, but it wouldn't suprise me if the Lib Dems got in.

Whoever you're backing in the national I'm avoiding like the proverbial plague :D

 

[Napster]

Odds on Maidstone and the Weald please.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Odds on Maidstone and the Weald please.

With Ladbrokes:

Conservatives 1/100
Lib Dems 16/1
Labour 100/1
Green 100/1
UKIP 100/1
English Democrats 100/1

 

[Napster]

With Ladbrokes:

Conservatives 1/100
Lib Dems 16/1
Labour 100/1
Green 100/1
UKIP 100/1
English Democrats 100/1

Blimey. Must be the first PPC to be so odds-on. Lib Dems have a decent chance, as they helped with the Gurkhas campaign.

 

[osymandus]

I don't necessarily want it to happen, or expect it to happen, but it wouldn't suprise me if the Lib Dems got in.

Dispite the image they do have closer tie's to the military then people think.
Aside From Paddy that is . Plus they do seem to give a damn sight more once your out of the services as well !

 

[J]

Serious question, is there any accumulators for constituencies?

 

[Lord Football]

Given that pretty much every seat in the South East, outside of London, will be Tory, you might make a few quid on an accumulator, but you'd need to pull in about 100 seats to do so.

Its not like football, Labour aren't going to pull any surprises in Southend for example.

 

[Rusty Shackleford]

Given that pretty much every seat in the South East, outside of London, will be Tory, you might make a few quid on an accumulator, but you'd need to pull in about 100 seats to do so.

Its not like football, Labour aren't going to pull any surprises in Southend for example.

It is a little bit like football, in that Southend aren't going to pull any surprises, like winning away in 2010.

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

James,

What are the odds on Lewisham Deptford? Is there a "without Labour" market?

Matt

 

[Uncle Leo]

James,

What are the odds on Lewisham Deptford? Is there a "without Labour" market?

Matt

Labour 1/66
Greens 12/1
Lib Dems 25/1
Conservatives 100/1

Nothing on the 'betting without' front yet, but I'll ask our politics guru if he has any such plans. I think it's just the one guy dealing with the whole lot, so he is a little under the cosh!

 

[BLUEBLOOD]

It is a little bit like football, in that Southend aren't going to pull any surprises, like winning away in 2010.

I will wager you £50 that we do Rusty :support:

 

[chadded]

Whoever you're backing in the national I'm avoiding like the proverbial plague :D

Hmm, I didn't just predict their victory, In fact, I said I don't expect it, but still. I'm just saying that I'd say 300/1 were longer odds than I'd have thought.

Oh, and I won on the Gold Cup. Quite handsomely, but you don't want my advice :p

 

[Manchester Shrimper]

Put £8 on the Hung Parliament today. IMO, 15/8 is a very good price on something that most opinion polls are pointing towards.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

Put £8 on the Hung Parliament today. IMO, 15/8 is a very good price on something that most opinion polls are pointing towards.

I don't think the opinion polls are pointing towards a hung parliament.

That assumes an Uniform National Swing. What happens is that the swing in the marginals tends to be more pronounced.

I therefore think a UNS of about 5% would translate to something more like a 7% swing in the marginals, which should be able to push the Tories into a narrow majority.

There's a MORI poll out for Reuters of the marginals where the Tories need between a 5 and a 9% swing, which seems to backs this up*, as it shows the Tories with a swing of 5.5% from last time out.

*although there's no overall poll from MORI to compare it to.

 

[osymandus]

SO if thats the case im guessing teh money is on a Tory/Labour alliance if its hung ?

 

[canveyshrimper]

SO if thats the case im guessing teh money is on a Tory/Labour alliance if its hung ?

There's no way the Tories or Labour Parties will work with each other. If it's a hung Parliament it's likely the LibDems will hold sway. But it's also possible one of the Nationalist Parties (SNP/PC/UU) could prop up a minority government depending how many seats that government are short of having an overall majority.

 

[osymandus]

There's no way the Tories or Labour Parties will work with each other. If it's a hung Parliament it's likely the LibDems will hold sway. But it's also possible one of the Nationalist Parties (SNP/PC/UU) could prop up a minority government depending how many seats that government are short of having an overall majority.

The maintaining of status quo seems to be a strong bound i wonder if either would want to break !


I was rather hoping that wasn't an option .. As Libe Dems have also ruled out going with the Tories as well (though PC from an ancestral point of view would be rather amusing with Wales finally having influence in westminster (yes im ignoring Lloyd George :P))

 

[canveyshrimper]

The maintaining of status quo seems to be a strong bound i wonder if either would want to break !


I was rather hoping that wasn't an option .. As Libe Dems have also ruled out going with the Tories as well (though PC from an ancestral point of view would be rather amusing with Wales finally having influence in westminster (yes im ignoring Lloyd George :P))

If you believe Clegg he's also ruled out propping up Labour, although IMO that is the more likely scenario. The SNP & Plaid Cymru would normally support Labour and the Ulster Unionists would side with the Tories. It will be interesting to see the horse trading that will happen in the event of a hung parliament.