A very well written post and highlights the crucial fact.
I still don't believe it's possible for us to break even in the national league.
I'd love to be wrong.
Will infrastructure change, matchday options improve finances? Of course.
A cup run or selling a player or two will also help, but unless we regularly sell players for several 100k and or get prem sides in the cup away from home, then it still won't be enough.
This football club needs league football.
It needs the TV money and extra 1-2 million that brings.
It needs to see the away end full several times per season and or at least 500+ often, instead of 80 or so we are currently seeing.
I still maintain that regaining league status is a far better income model than any improvements we make off the pitch at national league level.
With the exception of maybe grimsby and Bromley almost all of those that have gone up and flourished in the EFL have spent money to do so.
We could have the best facilities in the league and excellent match day choices but ultimately its what's on the pitch and league position that dictates the state of finances.
I'm not suggesting we should buy players on big money but we do need to seriously hoover up the best from this division and below and find another 3 or 4 GSMs per season. He has been excellent and will have real sell on value, having only cost a small fee. This is the model we were promised and that seems to have faded.
I don't think COSU are fully factoring EFL money into their projections of breakeven.
I think you'll probably find that the vast, vast majority of the current operating deficit is anticipated to be closed through revenue generated by a new east stand, and a fully-functional facility at the new training ground.
You would think that those can and will be built whatever division the club is in, and even if they don't fully close the gap, they would come remarkably close. Relying on regaining league status for an income model is dangerous and short-termist. The improvements that we make off the pitch would be long-term, and would help the club to generate much more income so that it can better support further expenditure without relying on the gift of owners who might be willing to lose money.
I also think some people's projections of £1m-£2m more coming in just by getting promoted to the EFL is a bit of a stretch, but I'm happy to be proven wrong. And even if it were accurate, it might cover our current operating losses, but then more money will need to be spent on fees and wages to construct a squad that can stay up in League 2, so then we're losing money again........and then there will be supporters who can't stand being mid-table in League 2 and want to go for promotion, so then the losses grow again. It turns into a vicious cycle.
For the above, and several other reasons, I just don't think the bit of your post that I've put in bold is true. Promotion back to the EFL is not the financial saviour that people think it will be, and relying on more away fans is back to living week-to-week. We need the club's infrastructure invested in so that bigger away followings at Roots Hall are an added bonus, rather than relying on them.
Maybe self-sufficiency is too broad a stroke, because outgoings would have to increase if the club moved up a level or two in order to be competitive, and who knows whether the revenue-generating elements our new facilities (if completed then) could keep up?
But closing the current operating loss as much as possible is an absolute must.
If it gets back to breakeven, it's then up to the owner to decide whether they'd like to review how much of their own money they're putting in. An extra £500k per year on the playing budget from a breakeven position would see them losing £500k per year, as opposed to an extra £500k per year on the playing budget now, which would swell their losses to £2m per year.