Brexit negotiations thread

[Tangled up in Blue]

What a mess! :smile: I'm waiting for Callan to re-appear and assure us, with his diplomatic knowledge, that we have nothing to worry about and everything will come up roses.

It's also rather worrying that Lord Football has been a tad silent on the progress (or not) of negotiations recently.

We would appear to be living in interesting times.:scared:

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Surely the really frightening thing in all this is not that the UK government wrongly believed that the EU would cave in to its 'cherry picking' demands......but that, well into negotiations................ THEY STILL BELIEVE IT! Oh well, I read now that the government are working on a plan for the eventuality of no agreement. Seeing how well they have managed Brexit so far, then we certainly have nothing to worry about.:winking:

 

[callan]

What a mess! :smile: I'm waiting for Callan to re-appear and assure us, with his diplomatic knowledge, that we have nothing to worry about and everything will come up roses.

Yogi, nothing I have ever written on here has probably served to re-assure you, and there is little purpose in attempting to re run the arguments that were made prior to the referendum.

If you want my current take on where we are, it would be that we are moving in the right direction some of the time but not all...I believe we have until December to 'achieve', what the EU deems to be sufficient progress to move onto other areas....and certainly both sides will need to recognize that there will be the need for a series of 'trade offs', to reach that position....with both sides in danger of being Hamstrung for very different reasons.

 

[MK Shrimper]

Yogi, nothing I have ever written on here has probably served to re-assure you, and there is little purpose in attempting to re run the arguments that were made prior to the referendum.

If you want my current take on where we are, it would be that we are moving in the right direction some of the time but not all...I believe we have until December to 'achieve', what the EU deems to be sufficient progress to move onto other areas....and certainly both sides will need to recognize that there will be the need for a series of 'trade offs', to reach that position....with both sides in danger of being Hamstrung for very different reasons.

I take it you didn't read the tweet that UL provided? The only way we've apparently moved is backwards.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Yogi, nothing I have ever written on here has probably served to re-assure you, and there is little purpose in attempting to re run the arguments that were made prior to the referendum.

If you want my current take on where we are, it would be that we are moving in the right direction some of the time but not all...I believe we have until December to 'achieve', what the EU deems to be sufficient progress to move onto other areas....and certainly both sides will need to recognize that there will be the need for a series of 'trade offs', to reach that position....with both sides in danger of being Hamstrung for very different reasons.

............and when December comes and we haven't made that progress???

 

[callan]

I take it you didn't read the tweet that UL provided? The only way we've apparently moved is backwards.

Yes I did read the link...and to be honest I have never heard of the guy or indeed the leavers alliance....also Yogi's post did not directly refer to it....albeit I can see why it's narrative would appeal to many on here, as I can't remember much positive in it's contents.

What I am sure of is that you will agree with me, that some of the guys conclusions are profoundly incorrect??

 

[callan]

............and when December comes and we haven't made that progress???

We being the EU or the UK or indeed both?

 

[MK Shrimper]

Yes I did read the link...and to be honest I have never heard of the guy or indeed the leavers alliance....also Yogi's post did not directly refer to it....albeit I can see why it's narrative would appeal to many on here, as I can't remember much positive in it's contents.

What I am sure of is that you will agree with me, that some of the guys conclusions are profoundly incorrect??

Can I ask how you know this? Do you follow these trade discussions with any rigour? Lord Football is directly involved I believe, and he knows it's an absolute mess.

 

[callan]

Can I ask how you know this? Do you follow these trade discussions with any rigour? Lord Football is directly involved I believe, and he knows it's an absolute mess.

How I know what?

 

[MK Shrimper]

How I know what?

What I am sure of is that you will agree with me, that some of the guys conclusions are profoundly incorrect??

 

[Lord Football]

Can I ask how you know this? Do you follow these trade discussions with any rigour? Lord Football is directly involved I believe, and he knows it's an absolute mess.

Both myself and Callan have a very good working knowledge of how this works and what the risks are. I know he has similar experiences to me and has been in some of the same rooms as I. Although wearing a different (and slightly older) hat.

I don't always agree with his conclusions (nor he mine) but they are based on an understanding of how things work and they are always worth a read.

But he, like me, can't read the future.

 

[Lord Football]

What I am sure of is that you will agree with me, that some of the guys conclusions are profoundly incorrect??

I broadly agree with the first 9, #13 #14 and #15 are pure conjecture based on worse case scenarios (your project fear if you like). In fact I hasten to guess that you are about to see a bit of a recruitment drive in some areas of Government (I posted links earlier about the requirement for 5000 extra border staff)/

#17 and especially #18 are the things that keep me awake at night. Literally....

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

We being the EU or the UK or indeed both?

Take it as you wish, the result would be the same? I think the EU has clearly laid out its position........it's not the EU that is leaving the UK, it's the other way around. Therefore it is surely incumbent on the UK to regularise its situation on the three major issues prior to any talks about future trading agreements. Even if we do get to that stage (unlikely in my view by December, if ever) the UK would need to stipulate (which they haven't done so far) exactly what future trading relationship they want with the EU. Understanding of course that they would have to pay for those privileges and probably adhere to certain rules. When the papers talk about red lines being crossed, regarding the two sides of the Tory party, this is of course rubbish. No lines have been crossed, they've just been pushed back. The kind of deal the EU would accept will be totally against anything May would be able to carry her party with. Apart from bringing about her own demise she would split the government in two. When it comes to doing what's best for the country or what is best for the Conservative Party, I wonder what she'll choose?

 

[callan]

What I am sure of is that you will agree with me, that some of the guys conclusions are profoundly incorrect??

My understanding is that this guy wants to leave the EU but does not agree with the way the government are doing it.

Your own position is that you don't want to leave the EU with your prefered option being to stay and not have to leave at all.

So perhaps you are only close to this guys position as neither of you appear to be getting what you want?

To take this further, let us look at where... just purely from the point of contradiction, this guy is profoundly incorrect....compare point 3 with point 8, which of these statements do you agree with?

 

[callan]

Take it as you wish, the result would be the same? I think the EU has clearly laid out its position........it's not the EU that is leaving the UK, it's the other way around. Therefore it is surely incumbent on the UK to regularise its situation on the three major issues prior to any talks about future trading agreements. Even if we do get to that stage (unlikely in my view by December, if ever) the UK would need to stipulate (which they haven't done so far) exactly what future trading relationship they want with the EU. Understanding of course that they would have to pay for those privileges and probably adhere to certain rules. When the papers talk about red lines being crossed, regarding the two sides of the Tory party, this is of course rubbish. No lines have been crossed, they've just been pushed back. The kind of deal the EU would accept will be totally against anything May would be able to carry her party with. Apart from bringing about her own demise she would split the government in two. When it comes to doing what's best for the country or what is best for the Conservative Party, I wonder what she'll choose?

What expectation should say a worker reliant on the UK to buy their companies goods have on the EU?

What kind of deal do you believe the EU will accept?

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

What expectation should say worker reliant on the UK to buy their companies goods have on the EU?

What kind of deal do you believe the EU will accept?

One which the 27 EU member states dictate to the UK and not the other way around.

 

[callan]

One which the 27 EU member states dictate to the UK and not the other way around.

Dictate what exactly?

That we should continue to buy their goods?

Continue to support 12 percent of their contributions ad infinitum?

One where we must accept their laws?

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

What expectation should say worker reliant on the UK to buy their companies goods have on the EU?

What kind of deal do you believe the EU will accept?

I haven't fully understood your first question. For the second, there are examples out there........Norway, Switzerland etc. Yet any of these kind of arrangements would not be acceptable to the Brexit side of the Tory Party. On leaving the EU the UK could of course apply to join the smaller group, EFTA. FWIU that could of course be hindered by a transitional stage of leaving the EU. It may also depend on the kind of way we left the EU and of course, if EFTA wants to have the UK as a member.........nothing is certain.

 

[Lord Football]

What kind of deal do you believe the EU will accept?

They'll accept something they believe to be reasonable and workable. We have yet to work out what that is. They probably haven't either.

There was some bloke on the tv last night lamenting how difficult and intransigent the EU were being. Seemed to think they should just give us what we want. It doesn't work like that. We've both been in the rooms, we know how it works and how it doesn't. The art of negotiation is to find common ground. Are they punishing us for leaving? Doubt it, the French, Dutch, Germans and especially the Irish need something.

You've got on one hand the largest multi nation beaurocracy on the planet dealing with a government that not only doesn't know what it wants, but also doesn't understand how it works.

I hope I am wrong, I really do, but I honestly can't see any movement to the situation.

 

[callan]

I haven't fully understood your first question. For the second, there are examples out there........Norway, Switzerland etc. Yet any of these kind of arrangements would not be acceptable to the Brexit side of the Tory Party. On leaving the EU the UK could of course apply to join the smaller group, EFTA. FWIU that could of course be hindered by a transitional stage of leaving the EU. It may also depend on the kind of way we left the EU and of course, if EFTA wants to have the UK as a member.........nothing is certain.

In regards my first question, if these negotiations fail and you are for example a German car worker who relies on the UK to buy the cars his company makes, would you be happy with the way EU is conducting negotiations?

The UK is the EU's biggest customer post Brexit or at least will become so....this does not apply to either Switzerland or Norway.