US Election 2012: Why is Obama favourite on UK betting sites?

[Dick Bate's Protege]

This Gallup Poll has Romney leading by five. Where did you see yours DBP?

Sorry I misread, I was reading an argument on Twitter between Dan Hodges (Blairite Blogger and tosser to boot) and Tim Stanley. It was a poll of Florida.

The perception in the press over here is that Sandy has given Obama a big bounce, and that Christie has stiffed Romney; what's the feeling over there Rusty?

Do you think Christie had half an eye on 2016 with his comments, or is that just a bit cynical?

 

[Neil_F]

US Presidential elections are all about turnout. This is demonstrated by the fact that all the commentary is about the polls. No one ever talks about what either candidate would actually do.

I do think Obama will just make it through though.

 

[EastStandBlue]

The perception in the press over here is that Sandy has given Obama a big bounce, and that Christie has stiffed Romney; what's the feeling over there Rusty?

EDIT: Ignore that. Long day.

Whatever Christie said regarding Obama's response to Sandy could be taken either way. He praises it, he's aiding Obama's perceived sense of leadership, he criticises it, and it's seen as a crass attempt at point scoring.


Interestingly though, yesterday's Rasmussen poll only has Romney up by 2, whereas they've had him up by as much as 7 in the past weeks IIRC.

 

[Rusty Shackleford]

I don't understand this perception. Obama's response to Sandy has been largely by the book, so what's Christie supposed to say? I don't get what Christie would stand to gain by stiffing Romney, either. Surely his best chance of earning the GOP nomination is before Rubio is the favoured candidate, which would be in four years time. If Romney wins next week, Christie isn't being afforded the opportunity for a clean run in 2016.

Agreed. If Christie had gone after Obama he would have been crucified.

 

[Dick Bate's Protege]

I don't understand this perception. Obama's response to Sandy has been largely by the book, so what's Christie supposed to say? I don't get what Christie would stand to gain by stiffing Romney, either. Surely his best chance of earning the GOP nomination is before Rubio is the favoured candidate, which would be in four years time. If Romney wins next week, Christie isn't being afforded the opportunity for a clean run in 2016.

I agree, Christie couldn't exactly criticise Obama over this, but comments like that we're always going to call his own motives into question. As I said to you last week, I'm having money on Christie to be the next US President following this election.

 

[Rusty Shackleford]

I agree, Christie couldn't exactly criticise Obama over this, but comments like that we're always going to call his own motives into question. As I said to you last week, I'm having money on Christie to be the next US President following this election.

It's true, Christie would have been better served keeping his gob shut, but that's not really his style. Christie backed Romney early so I don't see him hoping for a Romney defeat, but four more years of Obama will give whoever stands for the GOP in 2016 certain victory, if there's even a country left by then.

 

[Uncle Leo]

The Racing Post have suggested a few punts today:

Obama to win between 270 and 289 electoral college votes
Obama to win between 290 and 309 electoral college votes
Democrats to win Virginia

Matthew Engel - who does love a punt - is doing a further preview on Monday so I'll post any interesting titbits here then.

 

[Dick Bate's Protege]

It's true, Christie would have been better served keeping his gob shut, but that's not really his style. Christie backed Romney early so I don't see him hoping for a Romney defeat, but four more years of Obama will give whoever stands for the GOP in 2016 certain victory, if there's even a country left by then.

I hope you get the result you're after, really haven't been keen on Obama. Get Romney in and let's go invade Iran. Hoozah!!!

 

[shrimpled]

I worked it out to come down to Colorado, Ohio and Virgina. Obama needs one of those to win, Romney needs all three.

I've had a flutter and based on Obama carrying Ohio I think he'll be returned with 281.

 

[Rusty Shackleford]

All of my left-wing friends should be praying for a Romney victory, because I don't think I want to stay out here and live through four more years of Obama-crous spending plans and endless race-baiting.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

I agree, Christie couldn't exactly criticise Obama over this, but comments like that we're always going to call his own motives into question. As I said to you last week, I'm having money on Christie to be the next US President following this election.

I wouldn't touch that bet.

No value whatsoever.

Four years is a long time for something to happen to the front-runner. We don't know the reason Christie didn't run this time when the Republican nomination was as good as his for the wanting. He's a fat ****er as well so any heart scare in the next 4 years will torpedo his campaign. At this stage I'd only be backing long-outsiders.

 

[Dick Bate's Protege]

I wouldn't touch that bet.

No value whatsoever.

Four years is a long time for something to happen to the front-runner. We don't know the reason Christie didn't run this time when the Republican nomination was as good as his for the wanting. He's a fat ****er as well so any heart scare in the next 4 years will torpedo his campaign. At this stage I'd only be backing long-outsiders.

Don't sweat it, I'm doubling it up with Southend to win the Championship in 2016.

 

[Dick Bate's Protege]

I did the BBC predictor this morning and had it all coming down to Ohio.

Either Obama takes it 281-257 or Romney 275-263.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I did the BBC predictor this morning and had it all coming down to Ohio.

Either Obama takes it 281-257 or Romney 275-263.

Ohio and Florida will certainly be decisive but all the swing states are potentially important.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

A guy I used to teach-an ex-member of the Catalan Parliament and a former Agriculture Minister,now a political consultant-always used to say that we, ie EU citizens, should have a vote in the US elections.Always thought that was an interesting idea if a little impractical.
Thoughts?

 

[Uncle Leo]

Forgive the plug for my firm, but this press release might provide a few decent talking points here:

Barack Obama enters the final exchanges as a comfortable 2/9 favourite, with state-by-state betting predicting a win for the incumbent by 303-235 in what would be a welcome result for the bookies thanks to a £2,000 bet on an Electoral College tie at 50/1.

Alex Donohue of Ladbrokes said: "It's the moment we've all been waiting for. We'll be alive to every swing updating the odds with each step as thousands change hands."

He added: "As things stand all signs now point to a fairly comfortable victory for Obama. British punters are firmly in his corner and a win for Romney will end up being a bookie friendly result."

US Election betting summary

Biggest odds:
Romney 20/1 after the 2008 election
Obama 5/4 in January & February 2010

Shortest odds:
Romney 7/4 after first Presidential debate
Obama 1/7 before Presidential debates

Biggest bets
£50k on Obama at 2/5 (Struck in a Harrogate betting shop after first debate)
£30k on Romney at 9/4 (Struck online from a Canadian account after second debate)
£2k on an Electoral College tie 269-269 at 50/1
£8k on Romney betting 310-329 Electoral College votes at 33/1

Ladbrokes latest betting

US Election winner

Barack Obama 2/9
Mitt Romney 10/3

Popular vote winner
Barack Obama 4/11
Mitt Romney 15/8

Nationwide vote share winner loses the election 4/1
Ohio winner loses the election 12/1

Selected states

Ohio
Democrats 2/7
Republicans 5/2

Florida
Democrats 4/6
Republicans 11/10

Colorado
Democrats 4/7
Republicans 5/4

Virginia
Democrats 8/13
Republicans 6/5

 

[EastStandBlue]

Forgive the plug for my firm, but this press release might provide a few decent talking points here:

Barack Obama enters the final exchanges as a comfortable 2/9 favourite, with state-by-state betting predicting a win for the incumbent by 303-235 in what would be a welcome result for the bookies thanks to a £2,000 bet on an Electoral College tie at 50/1.

Alex Donohue of Ladbrokes said: "It's the moment we've all been waiting for. We'll be alive to every swing updating the odds with each step as thousands change hands."

He added: "As things stand all signs now point to a fairly comfortable victory for Obama. British punters are firmly in his corner and a win for Romney will end up being a bookie friendly result."

US Election betting summary

Biggest odds:
Romney 20/1 after the 2008 election
Obama 5/4 in January & February 2010

Shortest odds:
Romney 7/4 after first Presidential debate
Obama 1/7 before Presidential debates

Biggest bets
£50k on Obama at 2/5 (Struck in a Harrogate betting shop after first debate)
£30k on Romney at 9/4 (Struck online from a Canadian account after second debate)
£2k on an Electoral College tie 269-269 at 50/1
£8k on Romney betting 310-329 Electoral College votes at 33/1

Ladbrokes latest betting

US Election winner

Barack Obama 2/9
Mitt Romney 10/3

Popular vote winner
Barack Obama 4/11
Mitt Romney 15/8

Nationwide vote share winner loses the election 4/1
Ohio winner loses the election 12/1

Selected states

Ohio
Democrats 2/7
Republicans 5/2

Florida
Democrats 4/6
Republicans 11/10

Colorado
Democrats 4/7
Republicans 5/4

Virginia
Democrats 8/13
Republicans 6/5

I saw Paddy Power are already paying out on an Obama victory, which is ever so slightly premature given how close it is in several key states. I personally think Obama will secure it with 289 of the EC. Romney's campaign has just ran out of momentum at the wrong time, probably peaking too early courtesy of his performance in the first debate. Obama came out swinging in the final two, and Hurricane Sandy effectively postponed Romney's campaign for three days, whereas Obama was still able to promote his candidacy with effective leadership.

 

[Dick Bate's Protege]

Common sense says that Obama will take it, but I'm just not sure. I've had a feeling for the last week that there might be a surprise result despite the polls; apparently Reagan entered the final week 9 points behind Carter in 1980, stranger things have happened.

Also read that rain has been forecast all day in several swing states which by all accounts has tended to give the GOP a 2.5% boost in previous elections, due to the lefty idealists not liking to get the hippy hair wet.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Common sense says that Obama will take it, but I'm just not sure.

Yes we can.Believe.
And on Wednesday(or even late tomorrow night) "Rejoice,rejoice."

 

[EastStandBlue]

Interesting from Nate Silver, who's now got Florida going 49.797 Obama and 47.775 Romney. That'd make the difference between the two candidates less than 18,000 votes.