This Afternoon's Other L2 Important Games

[TrevorFitzpatrickHattrick]

I don't think it's a mini-league at all right now. The reality is that everyone in the division (bar Carlisle) has between 17 and 20 games left - that's 51 to 60 points to play for. And this league is absolute pony, just awful, everything about it. Could quite easily see teams like Col U and Crawley getting dragged down into the mire, whilst Stevenage have shown what a positive run can do in the other direction. Don't overthink it. This is a terrible division... We just have to avoid being one of the two most terrible teams.

 

[londonblue]

It's back in our hands now as far as I can tell. I don't expect barrow to get 3 points out of their games in hand let alone 6. We still play the teams around us again and we are (by the looks of things) coming into another run of good form for us that will see us further in touch with the teams above us rather than below. In a matter of a few weeks with a couple of results going our way the next thread could be about how amazing MM and the boys have done to get us so close to 19th in the table with 14 games to play.

Plenty of football to play still

No it's not. Grimsby only need to win their game in hand and Barrow only need 1 draw from their two games in hand for us to be bottom again.

You could argue that won't happen, but that doesn't mean it's in our own hands. We still need to rely on other teams to screw up.

 

[sufc4life21]

Am I the only one that’s looking forward to us maybe going down ? Just think of the away support we will have at these grounds, it’s gonna be something much different and will be a good change from the normal stuff, ok it’ll be great to stay up but I love my away games and maybe the chance of other grounds I’ve not been to before.

You shouldn't wish for us to be in non league...... it's a graveyard for ex football league clubs! Regards to the away support, that would only big if the team winning...... say we go down and we are not winning, I can see attendances just twiddling and could end up being long road back. National league in my opinion is the hardest league to get out. Just ask stockport fans who I regard as big club in league 2 let alone national league.

 

[Maldon Shrimper]

We must concentrate on what we do not what others do.We have to better there result.Its a bonus if we win and they loose.As others have said there is a lot of games to be played,many twists and turns.Keep being positive believe we can avoid the dreaded R word.

 

[Stan33]

U

Am I the only one that’s looking forward to us maybe going down ? Just think of the away support we will have at these grounds, it’s gonna be something much different and will be a good change from the normal stuff, ok it’ll be great to stay up but I love my away games and maybe the chance of other grounds I’ve not been to before.

u can always support Spurs !????

 

[Rob1920]

The comments about going non-league. No one would choose it obviously, but it could happen so we may have no choice but to embrace it. It's not the end, and although many have struggled how many clubs relegated to the NL in say the past dozen years have ceased to exist? without checking, I think they're all still around either at NL level or the one below (or a few have made it back up). Loads of fans of other clubs who've suffered the drop have commented on how they actually ended up quite enjoying the journey around other grounds, often finding everything more friendly with less restrictions on having a beer etc. So no, we don't want it, but if it happens life will go on for us fans and the club.

 

[Tampa Blue]

I give up!!

The fact that we are even talking about 'enjoying' non-league football just demonstrates how our collective expectations have been managed to such a low point - after all apparently we should be happy that we even have a club to support.

Of course that argument is based on comparing us to Bury and Macclesfield and not the other 91 league teams who surely we should be comparing ourselves to?!

 

[rigsby]

No it's not. Grimsby only need to win their game in hand and Barrow only need 1 draw from their two games in hand for us to be bottom again.

You could argue that won't happen, but that doesn't mean it's in our own hands. We still need to rely on other teams to screw up.

No we don't, your talking like its late April. We have 18 games to go, its firmly in our hands. Forget Barrow and Grimsby its Col U we should be targeting.....We are coming for them and they know it.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

I agree with Riggers.
It is in our player's we need to concentrate, they need to put aside what others are doing.
Clean sheets, hard to beat, catch some luck, work work and work some more.

Would a few contract discussions for next season be happening with caveats for league survival attached?

 

[Shrimper]

18/19 season on 14th February 2019:

21 Yeovil P: 32 Pts: 30 (PPG: 0.93)
22 Morecambe P: 31 Pts: 29 (PPG: 0.93)
23 Macclesfield P: 32 Pts: 28 (PPG: 0.87)
24 Notts County P: 31 Pts: 25 (PPG: 0.80)

18/19 season final standings:

23 Notts County P: 46 Pts: 41 (PPG: 0.89)
24 Yeovil P: 46 Pts: 40 (PPG: 0.86)

20/21 season relegation mini league:

22 Southend P: 28 Pts: 24 (PPG: 0.85)
23 Barrow P: 26 Pts: 23 (PPG: 0.88)
24 Grimsby P: 27 Pts: 21 (PPG: 0.77)

So based on that, as it stands Grimsby look doomed. But Barrow’s PPG is currently better than ours. If we end this season on our current PPG then it would’ve seen us relegated in the 18/19 season.

But interestingly Macclesfield were only slightly better than our current PPG in February 2019. They then avoided relegation by finishing with 0.95 PPG after some ex-premier league centre back took charge...

I’m sure there’s some proper stattos who can make some better observations than me. But I think it suggests Grimsby are as good as down and it’s a shoot out between us and Barrow. So much can change though and Grimsby’s results could well pick up when/if their new signings gel. Still squeaky bum time unfortunately.

Average points to stay up since 2010/11 season is 45 points. 23rd is 42 and 24th is 38.

We're on pace for 39, Barrow 41, Grimsby 36

 

[TrevorFitzpatrickHattrick]

Average points to stay up since 2010/11 season is 45 points. 23rd is 42 and 24th is 38.

We're on pace for 39, Barrow 41, Grimsby 36

But we're not "on pace" for 39 points. Nobody's on pace for anything, you're just simply extrapolating an end of year points tally from the average teams have accumulated so far.

For example, we secured a whopping two points in our first eleven games at a rate of 0.18ppg. However, since then we've picked up points at an average of 1.29ppg. Heck, why don't we take our average over the last two games of 2.0ppg and use it as a proxy for the remainder of the season? 60 points and an upper mid-table position sounds good to me.

This kind of methodology is far too simplistic to apply to any season, yet alone one with as many outliers as this one. I think we can all agree that we're a little better than we were over the first 11 games and, for me anyway, it's 100% in our own hands.

 

[damien]

No it's not. Grimsby only need to win their game in hand and Barrow only need 1 draw from their two games in hand for us to be bottom again.

You could argue that won't happen, but that doesn't mean it's in our own hands. We still need to rely on other teams to screw up.

With so many games left to play, increased points return after our horrendous start, and remaining fixtures of which 7 are against teams no more than 10 points ahead of us I cant see how it isnt in our hands now. As I say there is a lot of football left to play yet, of course anything can happen but importantly it is still down to the results of Southend United. if our form is good enough we have nothing to worry about. The onus is now on MM and the boys to keep this up over a longer period than our previous rich run of results.

 

[londonblue]

With so many games left to play, increased points return after our horrendous start, and remaining fixtures of which 7 are against teams no more than 10 points ahead of us I cant see how it isnt in our hands now. As I say there is a lot of football left to play yet, of course anything can happen but importantly it is still down to the results of Southend United. if our form is good enough we have nothing to worry about. The onus is now on MM and the boys to keep this up over a longer period than our previous rich run of results.

Because mathematically we're still potentially bottom.

 

[Stuart W]

We must concentrate on what we do not what others do.We have to better there result.Its a bonus if we win and they loose.As others have said there is a lot of games to be played,many twists and turns.Keep being positive believe we can avoid the dreaded R word.

That's what I say each week when Chris Whitty and Boris appear on the 5 o'clock bulletin.

 

[mfurok]

Far to many are overestimating the task. Win one, lose one, draw one and we will be fine.

Even after the defeat at Vale we are still ok for the last block of 3. and that was a tough block.

To win we have to score.

We struggle to score.

Surely resolving that issue was on the critical path of the project and remains long overdue, thus almost certainly denying the project a successful outcome.

 

[Barling Magna]

No we don't, your talking like its late April. We have 18 games to go, its firmly in our hands. Forget Barrow and Grimsby its Col U we should be targeting.....We are coming for them and they know it.

True enough, obviously it's far too early. But should Morecambe beat Barrow and Grimsby fail to win at Exeter a victory over Bolton for us would indeed put it in our hands. Just saying.

 

[Danshrimper]

No it's not. Grimsby only need to win their game in hand and Barrow only need 1 draw from their two games in hand for us to be bottom again.

You could argue that won't happen, but that doesn't mean it's in our own hands. We still need to rely on other teams to screw up.

The games in hand are irrelevant in terms of it being in our own hands. Grimsby and Barrow don’t play them until April. There are a lot of games to be played between now or then. For better or worse, the table is going to look a lot of different when those games in hand are actually played. So it’s very much in our own hands.

The games in hand won’t be of much use to Grimsby and Barrow if they find themselves 10 points behind us by the time they play them in April will they?

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

Last night was not a good night for us. We needed the likes of Bradford and Stevenage to lose, maybe more so than Barrow.

We need to keep the teams above us in sight. With our goal difference we're effectively already an extra point behind them. Nine points is a hell of a lot to make up - this division is poor enough that even struggling teams will find sides they can take random points off.

 

[united we stand]

No we don't, your talking like its late April. We have 18 games to go, its firmly in our hands. Forget Barrow and Grimsby its Col U we should be targeting.....We are coming for them and they know it.

We loose three at home———- we are going down , don’t kid yourself
Ohhhhhhhh
Win/draw when unexpected——- we are staying up and on on a run

It’s totally in our hands both mathematically and from a practical perspective, and as I have said will likely go to the wire.

We loose our next three and “ win are down”

We win the next three “9 points from 18, or 9 from 9 “we are on track to stay up”

I love it on here?

 

[rigsby]

Last night was not a good night for us. We needed the likes of Bradford and Stevenage to lose, maybe more so than Barrow.

We need to keep the teams above us in sight. With our goal difference we're effectively already an extra point behind them. Nine points is a hell of a lot to make up - this division is poor enough that even struggling teams will find sides they can take random points off.

Don't you worry about the rest just focus on Col U. if I was MM I would have the team singing it before training, before every game and certainly after we beat Bolton on Saturday

Were coming for you
Were coming for you
Colchester United were coming for you.

Everyone associated with SUFC just needs to focus on that. The power of group thought will even cure our goal drought.. Before March is out even the biggest skeptic will be singing along...Its written in the stars.