This Afternoon's Other L2 Important Games

[Magnum PI]

Barrow may have 2 games in hand but i'm sure last time i checked they were away games at Forest Green and Cheltenham. Good luck getting 6 pts there. They will be under pressure.

 

[amsemp]

When looking at past seasons to gauge how many are needed to stay up, has anyone looked to see how many points the bottom three sides had at this point?

18/19 season on 14th February 2019:

21 Yeovil P: 32 Pts: 30 (PPG: 0.93)
22 Morecambe P: 31 Pts: 29 (PPG: 0.93)
23 Macclesfield P: 32 Pts: 28 (PPG: 0.87)
24 Notts County P: 31 Pts: 25 (PPG: 0.80)

18/19 season final standings:

23 Notts County P: 46 Pts: 41 (PPG: 0.89)
24 Yeovil P: 46 Pts: 40 (PPG: 0.86)

20/21 season relegation mini league:

22 Southend P: 28 Pts: 24 (PPG: 0.85)
23 Barrow P: 26 Pts: 23 (PPG: 0.88)
24 Grimsby P: 27 Pts: 21 (PPG: 0.77)

So based on that, as it stands Grimsby look doomed. But Barrow’s PPG is currently better than ours. If we end this season on our current PPG then it would’ve seen us relegated in the 18/19 season.

But interestingly Macclesfield were only slightly better than our current PPG in February 2019. They then avoided relegation by finishing with 0.95 PPG after some ex-premier league centre back took charge...

I’m sure there’s some proper stattos who can make some better observations than me. But I think it suggests Grimsby are as good as down and it’s a shoot out between us and Barrow. So much can change though and Grimsby’s results could well pick up when/if their new signings gel. Still squeaky bum time unfortunately.

 

[rigsby]

Far to many are overestimating the task. Win one, lose one, draw one and we will be fine.

Even after the defeat at Vale we are still ok for the last block of 3. and that was a tough block.

 

[Stuart W]

Far to many are overestimating the task. Win one, lose one, draw one and we will be fine.

Even after the defeat at Vale we are still ok for the last block of 3. and that was a tough block.

I agree. 6 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats would give us 48 points which 95% of the time would be enough to finish at least 22nd.

 

[londonblue]

I agree. 6 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats would give us 48 points which 95% of the time would be enough to finish at least 22nd.

From Saturday we have 7 games in 22 days. We'll know a lot more after that. But with our injury record I really fear for this period. That said, we could be in a far better place at the end of it.

Stevenage are also 8 points ahead of us which makes it look like 2 from us, Barrow and Grimsby. However a lot can happen in a short space of time: a win for us, a loss for Stevenage and suddenly the difference is 5 points and we still have to play them at home. Our last away game of the season is also at Barrow.

On the face of it, it looks bad, but there is still so much to play for.

 

[in the know]

This is almost the blocks of 6 plan that was previously utilised. I seem to recall the players bought into it quite well and knew what was expected from each block. Took pressure off because games were won that were expected to be lost and it was possible to make up for unexpected losses.
Can't recall if it was Phil brown or chris Powell !?
But in a block of 6, the 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, makes each block feel do'able.

 

[Suffolk Shrimper In Dorset]

If I start to bomb down Pete's Southend United Prediction League we'll be fine.

That's unoptimistic optimism for you

 

[Stuart W]

Barrow may have 2 games in hand but i'm sure last time i checked they were away games at Forest Green and Cheltenham. Good luck getting 6 pts there. They will be under pressure.

As it happens Barrow have 4 postponed games to rearrange against our 1 (Walsall at home). Their game at Salford last night was not a rearranged earlier postponement; rather it was a game brought forward from March 13th when Salford will be playing in last year's Papa Johns Pizza with Tabasco Sauce final against Portsmouth.
Barrow's 4 postponed games still to be played are:-
Exeter (h)
Cheltenham (a)
Grimsby (h)..... Not so good
Forest Green Rovers (a)

 

[dusterman]

Plus, we've stayed out the relegation zone which is a confident boost no matter the circumstances...

 

[LBBlue]

Barrow have got only 2 spare midweek slots before the end of the season so a couple more postponements due to the weather or COVID would cause them and the League a bit of bother. Would the league insist on three games a week or extend the season?

Having games in hand means a harsh schedule of games week in week out.

Stevengage have only lost 4 in 16 so are quite consistent, hard to beat.

Col U haven’t won any of their last 11. Crawley haven’t won since they beat Leeds and sold their top scorer.

We need Scunthorpe and Port Vale to slump again to get more teams in the mix.

Our crucial games are going to be against Stevenage, Barrow, Col U, Scunthorpe and Crawley. Avoiding defeat in those games will be vital.

 

[BluBayou]

Our performance against Cambridge was considered by some to be our best 90 minutes of the season, and yet we didn't get a "proper" shot on target. Says is all. We won't stay up without goals.

 

[Tampa Blue]

Brings tears to my eyes seeing that we are now desperately looking at the results of the likes of Barrow and Grimsby to determine our future.

Someone pass Ron his fiddle.

 

[dannypav]

Looking in the cold light of day , we were the better side in our last two games ( 4 points and no goals conceded ) against two of the top sides.
Equally we were hammered by Port Vale , who apart from that game have had very patchy form.
It's clear to me that this league is one of awful teams - some go on positive runs and some on negative , but on any given day everyone is beatable and nobody stands out.
I remember the home game with Oldham ( think we lost 1-0 ) and thinking they were a truly terrible team and yet they sit half way now.
Yes , , what Barrow and Grimsby do will probably determine our fate , but now we have a potentially much stronger squad than the start of the season , we can go into every match being very competitive and give ourselves a chance ( that didn't happen in the first 10-12 games ).
Of course our lack of goals is a huge issue , but as long we can maintain a solid back line and continue to create , there is a way out of this.
I still think the odds are against us , but we have a fighting chance.

 

[Andyhsufc]

48 points should keep us up based on the last few seasons (often less than this needed). With that in mind - 1.3 points needed per game so on each block of three games 1w 1d 1l would do it. Wouldn't worry about other teams - this is in our hands

 

[Barling Magna]

I really don't think it is wise to write Grimsby off. They are still in touch and can easily make up ground. There are still plenty of points to play for.

 

[Leigh_Seasider]

Should we happen to win the next couple and 2 of the teams in the above group (only 4 points separate Stevenage and Walsall up in 11th..) happen to lose .. things will then get interesting. Big 'if' though and depends on all kinds of things - not least, scoring goals, something we've struggled with as has been well documented! Letting that group get further into the distance and relying on Barrow and Grimsby to mess up seems far more of a risky strategy.

 

[united we stand]

Far to many are overestimating the task. Win one, lose one, draw one and we will be fine.

Even after the defeat at Vale we are still ok for the last block of 3. and that was a tough block.

Agree with you, I also think that it’s likely with three games to go we will not be safe, nor will we be down.

Football is all about emotions for me, when we stayed up with Humpreys goal that was one of best ever Southend “moments “

I would much prefer that all the bottom teams start winning ( so we have something to be happy about some weeks) but it goes to the wire and we stay up on the last day with a win?

For me, and I don’t expect everyone to agree, that is better than a scenario where another teams result from n a day we aren’t even playing makes us safe.

Having said all of that, none of us can see the future so Obviously I just want us safe ASAP,

 

[tottenham541]

Am I the only one that’s looking forward to us maybe going down ? Just think of the away support we will have at these grounds, it’s gonna be something much different and will be a good change from the normal stuff, ok it’ll be great to stay up but I love my away games and maybe the chance of other grounds I’ve not been to before.

 

[Sherif H]

Am I the only one that’s looking forward to us maybe going down ? Just think of the away support we will have at these grounds, it’s gonna be something much different and will be a good change from the normal stuff, ok it’ll be great to stay up but I love my away games and maybe the chance of other grounds I’ve not been to before.

Yes...I hope you are the only one anyway. Relegation would be the end for us commercially.

 

[damien]

It's back in our hands now as far as I can tell. I don't expect barrow to get 3 points out of their games in hand let alone 6. We still play the teams around us again and we are (by the looks of things) coming into another run of good form for us that will see us further in touch with the teams above us rather than below. In a matter of a few weeks with a couple of results going our way the next thread could be about how amazing MM and the boys have done to get us so close to 19th in the table with 14 games to play.

Plenty of football to play still