The People's Vote

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

That’s not correct. All EU states are members of the WTO in their own right, and the EU overall is also a member. The UK has been a member of the WTO since 1st January 1995 and was previously a member of GATT.

@Lord Football is probably a good person to clarify

 

[OldBlueLady]

"The UK is already a WTO member, but its membership terms are bundled with the EU’s. Re-establishing the UK’s WTO status in its own right means both the UK and the EU would negotiate simultaneously with the rest of the WTO’s members to extract their separate membership terms. Agreement on the UK’s terms is unlikely before those of the EU."

https://www.ictsd.org/opinion/nothing-simple-about-uk-regaining-wto-status-post-brexit

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Thanks AS_S but I don’t need Lordy to explain, and my post was accurate. I also don’t believe decoupling EU-UK WTO trade arrangements would be as difficult as that left-leaning think tank suggests.

 

[MK Shrimper]

I believe there's a 90% tarriff on beef imports under WTO. Sunday lunch (amongst other things) will be a lot, lot more expensive.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

I believe there's a 90% tarriff on beef imports under WTO. Sunday lunch (amongst other things) will be a lot, lot more expensive.

Veganism is already taking off, this could be a big push on those numbers...

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Just noticed - amusing that considering the title of the thread on the poll there is an option to change your vote!

 

[MK Shrimper]

Veganism is already taking off, this could be a big push on those numbers...

There could be a brussel sprout war next Christmas but I think I'd have to sacrifice myself for the greater good.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Thanks AS_S but I don’t need Lordy to explain, and my post was accurate. I also don’t believe decoupling EU-UK WTO trade arrangements would be as difficult as that left-leaning think tank suggests.

you may well turn out to be right, I don't claim to be an expert, but if you Google the question you get countless other sites saying the same thing as the link OBL put up. As the government are spending an increasing amount of time and money on no deal prep it would make sense for them and WTO to make a joint statement saying that our change in membership will be straightforward. If it is straightforward that would be an easy and significant PR win.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

There could be a brussel sprout war next Christmas but I think I'd have to sacrifice myself for the greater good.

I'm already stockpiling mung beans.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

Thanks AS_S but I don’t need Lordy to explain, and my post was accurate. I also don’t believe decoupling EU-UK WTO trade arrangements would be as difficult as that left-leaning think tank suggests.

Haven't the US, Australia, NZ, China etc all blocked the UK's proposed schedules?

I'm sure it's fixable but at what cost? What concessions will we need to make to them to secure their approval? What will be the opportunity cost of the manpower spent on resolving this instead of the myriad of other issues that need sorting? We're expending an awful lot of energy to try and stand still (or more accurately try and limit the losses).

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Haven't the US, Australia, NZ, China etc all blocked the UK's proposed schedules?

I'm sure it's fixable but at what cost? What concessions will we need to make to them to secure their approval? What will be the opportunity cost of the manpower spent on resolving this instead of the myriad of other issues that need sorting? We're expending an awful lot of energy to try and stand still (or more accurately try and limit the losses).

The issue here is that although the UK is a full member of the WTO, there are a number of technical schedules around the implementation of rules around things like quotas, tariffs etc which are combined at the EU level.

The EU and UK had sought to simply this with a ‘technical correction’ which simply split those quotas and tariffs. However, some countries wish to negotiate those as the UK is not directly agriculturally aligned with all EU states (we aren’t a ‘median’ example in these areas - we have specific economic characteristics, another reason that the EU’s one-size-fits-no-one approach is so suboptimal).

This presents an opportunity for the UK and those other countries which DIT are currently working on. We will now be able to negotiate arrangements with them which look different to the EU arrangements, but which work better for both us and whichever partner we are talking to.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

The issue here is that although the UK is a full member of the WTO, there are a number of technical schedules around the implementation of rules around things like quotas, tariffs etc which are combined at the EU level.

The EU and UK had sought to simply this with a ‘technical correction’ which simply split those quotas and tariffs. However, some countries wish to negotiate those as the UK is not directly agriculturally aligned with all EU states (we aren’t a ‘median’ example in these areas - we have specific economic characteristics, another reason that the EU’s one-size-fits-no-one approach is so suboptimal).

This presents an opportunity for the UK and those other countries which DIT are currently working on. We will now be able to negotiate arrangements with them which look different to the EU arrangements, but which work better for both us and whichever partner we are talking to.

Ho ho ho at it being an "opportunity" for the UK.

It's an opportunity for the UK to be shafted. Trump knows it, Putin knows it and all the other countries who have objected know that they've got the UK over a barrel here and are going to bleed concessions out of us as there's little we can do now May has recklessly lit the fuse.

Where are the "they need a deal more than us" crowd now?

This is Great Britain's new reality in a post-Brexit world.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Ho ho ho at it being an "opportunity" for the UK.

It's an opportunity for the UK to be shafted. Trump knows it, Putin knows it and all the other countries who have objected know that they've got the UK over a barrel here and are going to bleed concessions out of us as there's little we can do now May has recklessly lit the fuse.

Where are the "they need a deal more than us" crowd now?

This is Great Britain's new reality in a post-Brexit world.

Do me a favour Lol. Firstly, they haven’t ‘objected’ they have not consented to a proposed quickie that the EU and UK proposed (yes, this affects the EU’s WTO membership every bit as much as it does the UK’s). They have simply requested a negotiation to have a different mix of tariffs and quotas, yes which benefit them but that also provides us with the same opportunity to negotiate for those things we produce which we would want to be able to access their markets. It’s a typical lefty wrong-headed suggestion to say we are tiny Tim with a begging bowl in these circumstances. If you honestly believe that we would ‘not be in the WTO’ and that countries could use that prospect as a big stick to beat us with, then you’re very badly informed. We ARE IN the WTO as full members already. Much of the world wants to trade with us, as we do them. If you imagine for a second that no mechanism will be found to enable this to continue on some terms after Brexit day you’re a mile wide of what will happen.

I repeat: the EU is in the same position, and the negotiators from other countries which did not ratify the technical correction are every bit (if not more) up for renegotiating the EU elements of the quotas. Neither they, nor us, will be locked out of the WTO on 1st April, mark my words.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

Where did I say we'd be locked out of the WTO? I said they will use this as an opportunity to extract concessions from us.

And yes we are a tiny Tim when it comes to the US and China. There will be a real imbalance of power and resources. The UK administration is so thinly spread at the moment that things will get missed and better prepared countries who spend their time more productively than shooting themselves in the foot will be there gleefully feeding off the pieces. This is before the concessions given because of political expediency and inexperience on matters previously handled by the EU on our behalf.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Where did I say we'd be locked out of the WTO? I said they will use this as an opportunity to extract concessions from us.

And yes we are a tiny Tim when it comes to the US and China. There will be a real imbalance of power and resources. The UK administration is so thinly spread at the moment that things will get missed and better prepared countries who spend their time more productively than shooting themselves in the foot will be there gleefully feeding off the pieces. This is before the concessions given because of political expediency and inexperience on matters previously handled by the EU on our behalf.

We are one of the biggest economies in the world in our own right - in the top 5 or 6 (depending on which figures you use). A lot tinier Tims than us have negotiated WTO quotas perfectly successfully. As someone at the very heart of the UK administration, I do not accept at all that don't have the skills or experience, or resources, or time to negotiate successfully. Concessions is also a misnomer - negotiations are a two way street and trade offs are agreed - in all known cases. The idea that the UK civil service and legal profession are amateurs fumbling about in the dark without a clue is nonsense.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

We are one of the biggest economies in the world in our own right - in the top 5 or 6 (depending on which figures you use). A lot tinier Tims than us have negotiated WTO quotas perfectly successfully. As someone at the very heart of the UK administration, I do not accept at all that don't have the skills or experience, or resources, or time to negotiate successfully. Concessions is also a misnomer - negotiations are a two way street and trade offs are agreed - in all known cases. The idea that the UK civil service and legal profession are amateurs fumbling about in the dark without a clue is nonsense.

If you are at the heart of the UK administration and can’t see it I am even more concerned than before.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

If you are at the heart of the UK administration and can’t see it I am even more concerned than before.

Fair enough. I won't be able to change your mind but no worries, you're entitled to your opinion, so we can agree to disagree. I'm very comfortable with mine, too.

 

[Colorado Shrimper]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1075732881111158785

Posted without comment.

 

[Ricky Otto]

We are one of the biggest economies in the world in our own right - in the top 5 or 6 (depending on which figures you use). A lot tinier Tims than us have negotiated WTO quotas perfectly successfully. As someone at the very heart of the UK administration, I do not accept at all that don't have the skills or experience, or resources, or time to negotiate successfully. Concessions is also a misnomer - negotiations are a two way street and trade offs are agreed - in all known cases. The idea that the UK civil service and legal profession are amateurs fumbling about in the dark without a clue is nonsense.

I think it is the scale of just how much we have to renegotiate in a no deal scenario and what the damage will be whilst this is happening. I'm sorry to keep harping on about financial services but it is an area I have experience in and one that makes a significant contribution to our country (in 2017 city of London financial institutions accounted for 11% of all tax revenue). I know even with simple service contracts between an insurer and a third party acting on their behalf takes an annoyingly long time due to the back and forth between legal departments and the heavy regulation since the financial crisis not to mention GDPR and such like. Where is the resource of qualified legal professionals coming from? to have so many contract negotiations in a short period of time is unprecedented. In that period how much business will be lost and will we ever get it back?

To dismiss this so lightly is folly IMO

 

[rigsby]

Remain currently leading with 75% of the vote, so can understand why the leavers are so terrified of another referendum...

Oh dear......Someone got a bit excited way to early.