The inevitable impact of Covid19

[Massimo Giovanni]

There's obviously a huge difference between covid-19 deaths and false positives on (presumably) LFT's.In any case your logic is entirely faulty here.

The message being put across from the body count is largely wrongly directed and simplistic.
For me, an interesting, useful, educational statistic would be IF the figure was available for non (or light) smoker and alcohol users, average BMI, healthy eaters who take reasonable exercise. Those figures are likely minimal fatalities or ICU stays.
And, (in keeping with your Brit bashing) would highlight the toxic state of too large a percentage of the UK's population. And give a worthwhile comparison with similar sized European countries or indeed the comparative hefty citizens of the US of A.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

You still appear to be denying what was widely anounced in the British media the other day that the landmark figure of 150,000 covid-19 deaths in the UK is a record for Europe.

It is definitely the current recorded record for a European country (unless you count Russia which has reported over 300,000 COVID deaths).

Good headline for those who wish to use it. However there’s many issues with this basic comparison - a huge one being that to be in any countries‘ officially reported COVID deaths figures each day you needed to have been tested positive. Since the beginning of the pandemic the German government reports that that country has performed (in total) just under 90 million tests. Just over one per person in the country over the two years. In the UK, we have performed almost 420 million.

No country gets close to positively testing every single person with COVID - to a large degree the more you test the more cases you find and that feeds through to the numbers for deaths. We’d need to look at overall deaths across the period and compare that to the long term trend - to see the excess deaths etc. That would be a much better comparison (as long as those figures are collected the same way!).

However we did have a specific and horrendous problem in care homes in the UK early on in the pandemic, which I would expect to bump up our numbers

 

[blueblueblue]

It is definitely the current recorded record for a European country (unless you count Russia which has reported over 300,000 COVID deaths).

Good headline for those who wish to use it. However there’s many issues with this basic comparison - a huge one being that to be in any countries‘ officially reported COVID deaths figures each day you needed to have been tested positive. Since the beginning of the pandemic the German government reports that that country has performed (in total) just under 90 million tests. Just over one per person in the country over the two years. In the UK, we have performed almost 420 million.

No country gets close to positively testing every single person with COVID - to a large degree the more you test the more cases you find and that feeds through to the numbers for deaths. We’d need to look at overall deaths across the period and compare that to the long term trend - to see the excess deaths etc. That would be a much better comparison (as long as those figures are collected the same way!).

However we did have a specific and horrendous problem in care homes in the UK early on in the pandemic, which I would expect to bump up our numbers

We certainly ****ed up with this, that's for sure.

 

[Billy Bests boot laces]

The manner in which the UK counts it's Covid fatalities is open to scrutiny as it has yet to be proven that all those deaths were as a result of Covid or just a convenient statistical exercise.

Good friend of mine for 50 years, had massive stroke Nov 20. Whilst in Hosp he contracted pneumonia & sepsis, & also tested positive for Covid as well. Unfortunately he passed away, & guess what was put on his death certificate as cause of death....yep, Covid.
Another good friend has a son in law whose an Undertaker. He said last year literally everyone they collected from mortuary's had Covid as their cause of death. Possibly because it saved a post mortem, which weren't happening at that time?.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

The message being put across from the body count is largely wrongly directed and simplistic.
For me, an interesting, useful, educational statistic would be IF the figure was available for non (or light) smoker and alcohol users, average BMI, healthy eaters who take reasonable exercise. Those figures are likely minimal fatalities or ICU stays.
And, (in keeping with your Brit bashing) would highlight the toxic state of too large a percentage of the UK's population. And give a worthwhile comparison with similar sized European countries or indeed the comparative hefty citizens of the US of A.

Not sure how it counts as Brit bashing Jim, when all I'm doing is quoting official figures released by the BBC and others.Pointed out in my original post that the UK population is roughly the size of France and much smaller than Germany.Also that the countries reporting more covid deaths have far greater populations.

 

[rigsby]

Good friend of mine for 50 years, had massive stroke Nov 20. Whilst in Hosp he contracted pneumonia & sepsis, & also tested positive for Covid as well. Unfortunately he passed away, & guess what was put on his death certificate as cause of death....yep, Covid.
Another good friend has a son in law whose an Undertaker. He said last year literally everyone they collected from mortuary's had Covid as their cause of death. Possibly because it saved a post mortem, which weren't happening at that time?.

If we go by official "Covid' deaths then more people caught Covid and then died after entering an NHS hospital, than the total number of deaths in countries like Switzerland.

In many cases involving the elderly, if you required an ambulance, Covid was being wrongly diagnosed over the phone by 999 operators. Even when they had a known terminal illness. That meant isolation and zero treatment after arrival at hospital.

Many families removed parents so that they could die in their own home, rather than alone and forgotten about. Some had to fight really hard not to have Covid on the death certificate. Some friends of mine threatened to have their own postmortem on their dad before it was changed. He had died at home of lung cancer, after they removed him. One of them had to film their dead dad on a phone and send that as proof of death.

Of course many families would not want to add to their trauma and grief by having to ask questions and fight the NHS. The disgrace is they should never have been put in that position by a national over zealous, lets boost our figures, culture.

 

[Leigh_Seasider]

I don't want to get into politics but just out of interest, as it's something I hear a lot. Forgive my ignorance but who benefits exactly from the UK inflating its' figures so that it looks worse than the rest of Europe?

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

I don't want to get into politics but just out of interest, as it's something I hear a lot. Forgive my ignorance but who benefits exactly from the UK inflating its' figures so that it looks worse than the rest of Europe?

Nobody surely! It would be scandalous if true, and I don’t believe it is. At a push I suppose there may be political capital for opposition parties but it seems very far fetched, to me anyway. What I do believe is that other European countries are aware and are not massively upset that they do less testing than we do and what impact that may have in comparative figures.

 

[hlane17]

I do think the within 28 days stat is a bit dubious and surely death certificates are the best determinant of cause of death and associated co-morbidities?

 

[rigsby]

Nobody surely! It would be scandalous if true, and I don’t believe it is. At a push I suppose there may be political capital for opposition parties but it seems very far fetched, to me anyway. What I do believe is that other European countries are aware and are not massively upset that they do less testing than we do and what impact that may have in comparative figures.

£100 billion just for testing. £15 per jab and who knows the cost of each shot.?

I don't know anyone who has profited but I do know fellow Shrimpers who have died of cancer in the last two years. Instead of 400m tests incase you have flu how about 50m tests for cancer and 50m for heart. We would save more lives and more money.

 

[blueblueblue]

£100 billion just for testing. £15 per jab and who knows the cost of each shot.?

I don't know anyone who has profited but I do know fellow Shrimpers who have died of cancer in the last two years. Instead of 400m tests incase you have flu how about 50m tests for cancer and 50m for heart. We would save more lives and more money.

If / when we come out the other side, a full independent review will be conducted. Until then we're just guessing on everything we hear or believe.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

Bean counting is an exacting business and in the UK we have become reliant and robotic in it.
The police seem to spend too much, or more, time counting incidents and crimes than detecting or deterring them.
And try getting a GP appointment, often the receptionist is a full time screening system than an assistance to the process.
I offer that as an example of issue within the NHS (and the police as an indicator of UKGuv workings in general), the NHS is run by counting and accounting, recording of stats, consultations, examinations, letters sent, procedures performed etc rather than the BEST interests of the patient. The managers at the NHS use the figures to get what they can from a creaking and outmoded system, that would be positive BUT the actions are biased to the counting figures not the welfare and necessity.

I doubt I have explained it clearly.

When huge organisations are judged by figures, like schools and OFSTED reports for example, schools now teach to get a good Ofsted report not for the best of the pupils.

With COVID deaths the bean counters are asked simply "did the person ....etc 28 days?" And if the answer is yes then that is what is put down; it is a proper Little Britain comedy sketch if ever ther was one, and generates a figure which is unchallenged because the NHS is seen as beyond and above any criticism unless the speaker wants to bring down the wrath of a host of good intentioned, not for change idealists.

 

[GBJ]

the NHS is seen as beyond and above any criticism unless the speaker wants to bring down the wrath of a host of good intentioned, not for change idealists.

Worth noting that many NHS employees would agree with this.

It’s the single best thing that this nation has ever produced and yet the glaring inadequacies surrounding the entire infrastructure of the NHS are ignored, forgotten about or left to repeat themselves on a perpetual basis.

 

[rigsby]

If / when we come out the other side, a full independent review will be conducted. Until then we're just guessing on everything we hear or believe.

The Grenfell survivors and families don't agree with you. Sir Tony refused 3 times to have one for the 7/7 bombings.

When the person in charge of my mums ward in Southend hospital told me Covid had shown up in her blood......I wasn't guessing I knew she was bull***ing....15 minutes later she diid not have Covid and greatly improved over the next 48hrs and was able to come home.

In all public sector/uniform jobs, the latest big idea always overrules whats best for the plebs.

 

[dcblue]

High figures, deaths or positive tests, reinforce the need for emergency powers, without which the vaccinations would not be authorised.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

@dcblue thanks, your post made me think of Sir Tony's dodgy dossier and WMD.

 

[rigsby]

@dcblue thanks, your post made me think of Sir Tony's dodgy dossier and WMD.

Many were hoping for a sentence but he ended up with a title.

 

[RHB]

Slowly but surely this thread is moving towards, or maybe is already in, a political debate. Everyone on here knows the position on politics, yet still it continues. Please keep the discussion on topic. Thanks all.

 

[mattytheshrimper]

Slowly but surely this thread is moving towards, or maybe is already in, a political debate. Everyone on here knows the position on politics, yet still it continues. Please keep the discussion on topic. Thanks all.

To get it back on topic, it doesn't look like we'll be following Scotland or Wales with their rules surrounding football. I'm sure we probably would have followed them had it not been for the fact that Boris has zero credibility left. He knew full well no one would listen to a word he says, especially after yet another party has come to light.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

To get it back on topic, it doesn't look like we'll be following Scotland or Wales with their rules surrounding football. I'm sure we probably would have followed them had it not been for the fact that Boris has zero credibility left. He knew full well no one would listen to a word he says, especially after yet another party has come to light.

Ha ha Matt, your post highlights the issue of trying to separate the covid and politics .
I have read a little of the Chester City story with it being English club but some wanting Welsh crowd,covid attendance rules.
If the BIG idea was to get folks fed up with the rules, do and don't stuff then, imo, largely achieved.