The french presidential election............and beyond

[Neil_F]

Maybe not but where is the right's plan for economic growth in Europe?:unsure:

There isn't one within the Eurozone. No one has a plan for growth.

There are currently only two economic policies: slow death monetary disintegration and swift monetary disintegration.

Until the Eurozone solves the competitiveness issue there will be a lengthy stagnation and the almost inevitable breakup of the monetary union. Solving the competitiveness issue means either Germany (and the northern bloc) leaving or agreeing to fiscal transfers that would require Europe wide politicial institutions (essentially a single government).

Nothing Hollande has proposed will do anything to change this.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

I thought that this article provided a simple and clear explanation of the FN phenomenon and where it is or is not going

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17824436

Interesting the comparison with the 2002 vote where, if you add on the Megret and Chasse Pêche Nature et Tradition votes to Le Pen's total, you come out not far from what MLP achieved last Sunday.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

There isn't one within the Eurozone. No one has a plan for growth.

There are currently only two economic policies: slow death monetary disintegration and swift monetary disintegration.

Until the Eurozone solves the competitiveness issue there will be a lengthy stagnation and the almost inevitable breakup of the monetary union. Solving the competitiveness issue means either Germany (and the northern bloc) leaving or agreeing to fiscal transfers that would require Europe wide politicial institutions (essentially a single government).

Nothing Hollande has proposed will do anything to change this.

As an economic 'nul' (D grade Economics A level!) could there be a solution by a two level Euro in what would effectively be a North/South divide. Not a pretty solution but by what you say, the alternatives are either unworkable or downright unpleasant........nigh, catastrophic.

 

[canveyshrimper]

As an economic 'nul' (D grade Economics A level!) could there be a solution by a two level Euro in what would effectively be a North/South divide. Not a pretty solution but by what you say, the alternatives are either unworkable or downright unpleasant........nigh, catastrophic.

I don't know, but wouldn't a two tier Euro rather defeat the object of the project? Although ultimately it could also defeat the idea of a United States of Europe.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I thought that this article provided a simple and clear explanation of the FN phenomenon and where it is or is not going

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17824436

Interesting the comparison with the 2002 vote where, if you add on the Megret and Chasse Pêche Nature et Tradition votes to Le Pen's total, you come out not far from what MLP achieved last Sunday.

As you say it's an interesting article.As far as the future is concerned,I don't think MLP is capable of raising the FN share of the vote to around 25%,which she would need to make the second round in 2017.So far (at least since 2002,the FN's share of the vote has remained stable at around 16/19%).If she were to quit the FN,found a new right-wing party and look for a realingment of the right with a UMP rump that might be a different story,however.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

There isn't one within the Eurozone. No one has a plan for growth.

There are currently only two economic policies: slow death monetary disintegration and swift monetary disintegration.

Until the Eurozone solves the competitiveness issue there will be a lengthy stagnation and the almost inevitable breakup of the monetary union. Solving the competitiveness issue means either Germany (and the northern bloc) leaving or agreeing to fiscal transfers that would require Europe wide politicial institutions (essentially a single government).

Nothing Hollande has proposed will do anything to change this.

To paraphrase Nye Bevan,that's your truth,now let me tell you mine.Hollande will win the French election on May 6th and there will also be a profound shift to the left in the Greek elections, on the same date.The latter could well lead to Greece opting for a managed default from the Euro.The former will lead to a weakening of the current, disasterous Franco-German alliance over the Euro and a change of public policy in France.A plan for growth has to be found and implemented throughout Europe-TINA is manifestly not working anywhere,except perhaps in Germany.At the very least countries like Spain (and several others)will need a lot more time to comply with the stringent conditions currently being imposed on them by Germany(in the name of the EU/Euro).Hopefully, speculators on the bonds markets, will also have sanctions re-imposed on them as well.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

As you say it's an interesting article.As far as the future is concerned,I don't think MLP is capable of raising the FN share of the vote to around 25%,which she would need to make the second round in 2017.So far (at least since 2002,the FN's share of the vote has remained stable at around 16/19%).If she were to quit the FN, found a new right-wing party and look for a realingment of the right with a UMP rump that might be a different story,however.

Not that I would wish to give her advice but couldn't this be a case of swings and roundabouts? For some of the NF voters the fact that she appears to be anti-establishment is surely part of her attraction. If she made an attempt to move into the mainstream of French politics, she may well lose some of the support from people who don't want to see FN policies watered down, as they certainly would have to be. Those people may well carry on with the old party.
On the other hand many on the right would not support her for fear that she really hadn't changed her ideas from those of her father's FN and was just using a cynical ploy to try and gain power.

 

[Neil_F]

To paraphrase Nye Bevan,that's your truth,now let me tell you mine.Hollande will win the French election on May 6th and there will also be a profound shift to the left in the Greek elections, on the same date.

Really? Aren't all the indications that the existing coalition will simply swap roles and carry on as they are?

The latter could well lead to Greece opting for a managed default from the Euro.

Greece has already defaulted. Private sector creditors have taken a huge hit and couldn't possibly take anything more. The remaining creditors are all other governments and the ECB. Do you mean a managed exit from the Euro?

The former will lead to a weakening of the current, disasterous Franco-German alliance over the Euro and a change of public policy in France.

To what? Every concrete Hollande proposal is contractionary

At the very least countries like Spain (and several others)will need a lot more time to comply with the stringent conditions currently being imposed on them by Germany(in the name of the EU/Euro).

I agree. Spain has no chance of meeting the target for reducing the budget deficit. At that point the fiscal compact should impose sanctions (but that would clearly be self defeating) but not imposing sanctions would render the whole thing pointless.

Hopefully, speculators on the bonds markets, will also have sanctions re-imposed on them as well.

This is such a French opinion. These governments are begging for money on a daily basis but still have the audacity to call those that lend it to them "speculators." This is entirely the fault of a monetary union that would never work without fiscal transfers and the indebtedness of sovereign nations. None of the Euro crisis is the fault of the bond markets.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I notice that El Pais this morning is calling for a new French Government to lead a "fiscal pact" with other European nations against Germany.Watch this space I think.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Really? Aren't all the indications that the existing coalition will simply swap roles and carry on as they are?

According to Paul Mason on Newsnight, the Greek Communist party(and assorted Trots)are currently polling neck and neck with the two main Greek Socialist and Conservative parties.

Greece has already defaulted. Private sector creditors have taken a huge hit and couldn't possibly take anything more. The remaining creditors are all other governments and the ECB. Do you mean a managed exit from the Euro?

Yes.A possible managed exit that is.My bad.:blush:

To what? Every concrete Hollande proposal is contractionary

Previous comments you've made suggest you're familiar with Hollande's election manifesto proposals.Let's wait and see what he actually does in office.

I agree. Spain has no chance of meeting the target for reducing the budget deficit. At that point the fiscal compact should impose sanctions (but that would clearly be self defeating) but not imposing sanctions would render the whole thing pointless.

Agreed.cf my comment above, about a possible future European "fiscal pact," with France leading the way(along with several other European countries) against Germany.

This is such a French opinion. These governments are begging for money on a daily basis but still have the audacity to call those that lend it to them "speculators." This is entirely the fault of a monetary union that would never work without fiscal transfers and the indebtedness of sovereign nations. None of the Euro crisis is the fault of the bond markets.

I've no idea what makes you think it's a "French opinion" only.I don't think anyone has any problem with genuine investors in the bond markets.The problem is "b and b" type speculators,who should be severly discouraged or castigated.It's simple enough to do and controls should be reimposed(IMO).

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Latest projections for the way the NF's vote will go in the second round are: "Polls – which vary wildly – show on average around half Le Pen voters voting Sarkozy, 20% choosing Hollande and 30% abstaining or spoiling their ballot"
http://gu.com/p/376ph
That's probably more realistic than the 30% for Hollande I saw in polls taken immediately after the election and only a 20% abstention rate.:sad:
Fortunately,Sarko needs to get about 80% of the NF vote in order to have a realistic chance of winning.:smiles:

 

[Dick Bate's Protege]

I've spent 3 days going over and over this issue and have concluded that I'd definitely be game for a violent drug fuelled romp with Marine Le Pen.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

For the record I abhor fascists of both right and left and see no difference in their ideology.

Harry,
So,you're a middle of the roader?
As Nye Bevan said:
"We know what happens to people who stay in the middle of the road. They get run down".
Tread carefully.:winking:

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I've spent 3 days going over and over this issue and have concluded that I'd definitely be game for a violent drug fuelled romp with Marine Le Pen.

She's undeniably attractive to men of -ahem-a certain age but she has few(if any, political charms). :nope:

 

[canveyshrimper]

Harry,
So,you're a middle of the roader?
As Nye Bevan said:
"We know what happens to people who stay in the middle of the road. They get run down".
Tread carefully.:winking:

Couldn't abide Chirpy Chirpy ****ing Cheep Cheep.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

So, François Hollande it is. I have to say that, the most surprising thing was, after seeing a photo of him and the new First Lady last night, how much she resembles his last partner, Segolene Royale.
My daughter seems to have taken on rather curious right wing credentials (don't know where she got that from?) and has threatened to leave for England when Hollande has ruined the country. I told her that Mr Cameron will no doubt welcome her with open arms. Anyway her fears are probably as naïve as those thousands in La Place de la Bastille last night, believing that Mr Hollande's arrival will hail a new dawn of Socialism in France...........after all we're living in the Europe of the 21st Century now! Mr Hollande, having done the pre-election talk................... will now be obliged to do the post-election walk and that is likely to be FAR less devient than many hope or fear.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

So, François Hollande it is. I have to say that, the most surprising thing was, after seeing a photo of him and the new First Lady last night, how much she resembles his last partner, Segolene Royale.
My daughter seems to have taken on rather curious right wing credentials (don't know where she got that from?) and has threatened to leave for England when Hollande has ruined the country. I told her that Mr Cameron will no doubt welcome her with open arms. Anyway her fears are probably as naïve as those thousands in La Place de la Bastille last night, believing that Mr Hollande's arrival will hail a new dawn of Socialism in France...........after all we're living in the Europe of the 21st Century now! Mr Hollande, having done the pre-election talk................... will now be obliged to do the post-election walk and that is likely to be FAR less devient than many hope or fear.

I think Cameron only wants French millionaires.:winking:
(sent from the LFB).

 

[* ORM *]

She's undeniably attractive to men of -ahem-a certain age but she has few(if any, political charms). :nope:

I'm failing to see the connection with a rack like that and political charms. :smile:

 

[Neil_F]

Hollande will win the French election on May 6th and there will also be a profound shift to the left in the Greek elections, on the same date.The latter could well lead to Greece opting for a managed default from the Euro.The former will lead to a weakening of the current, disasterous Franco-German alliance over the Euro and a change of public policy in France.

Barna, how is the change of public policy working out in France?

Hollande's budget was total madness. This is a repetition of 1930s economics; you simply cannot implement such fiscal contraction (especially tax rises as they are more "recessionary" than spending cuts) without any kind of monetary stimulus. It is a repeat of the 1930s with the desparation to cling to the gold standard simply replaced by the desire to preserve the Euro.

The tax rises Hollande has introduced are mad. They will increase the deficit by undermining confidence and reducing economic activity, thus raising less revenue. The money supply has fallen through the floor (a sure sign of recession) and the manufacturing index has totally collapsed.

How much longer can this go on for?

 

[Berrichonne shrimper]

Barna, how is the change of public policy working out in France?

Hollande's budget was total madness. This is a repetition of 1930s economics; you simply cannot implement such fiscal contraction (especially tax rises as they are more "recessionary" than spending cuts) without any kind of monetary stimulus. It is a repeat of the 1930s with the desparation to cling to the gold standard simply replaced by the desire to preserve the Euro.

The tax rises Hollande has introduced are mad. They will increase the deficit by undermining confidence and reducing economic activity, thus raising less revenue. The money supply has fallen through the floor (a sure sign of recession) and the manufacturing index has totally collapsed.

How much longer can this go on for?

Trust me its same ole same old.