The french presidential election............and beyond

[Tangled up in Blue]

I find that, again with respect, a VERY worrying statement. I can't believe that you are not understanding fully what is going on here. Marine Le Pen has done and will continue to do her UPMOST, to persuade ordinary people that a vote for the FN is NOT a racist vote. Yesterday has shown that she has had quite a lot of success in that aim .........AND THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT IS SO WORRYING.

I don't underestimate them at all.They're dangerous scum.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Andrew Neil ‏ @afneil

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Le Pen implies she wants Hollande to win so that UMP implodes and she becomes main opposition.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Andrew Neil ‏ @afneil

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Le Pen implies she wants Hollande to win so that UMP implodes and she becomes main opposition.

Then FN supporters will have to hold their collective noses when they vote(against their nature for Hollande)as the Left did 10 years ago for Chirac.

 

[Neil_F]

.The fight back of the European Left starts with France and will(I hope) be continued in Greece's elections next month.Europe badly needs a stategy for growth.Here's hoping that Holland will provide it, in Europe's second biggest economy, and also weaken France's ties with Germany over the Euro.

Hollande will have to govern from the centre if he wins. None of the stuff about 75% tax rates, higher corporate tax rates, increased public spending, reducing the retirement age or unpicking the fiscal compact will ever happen.

France is now bound by the fiscal and monetary approach of Germany. Any attempt to deviate from it would lead to an assault by the bond market on France and a threat to solvency.

The only chance of a change of direction would be the end of the Euro (or Germany's exit). That may be closer with the implosion of the Dutch government over the weekend, but the Euro remains mirred in contradiction and uncertainty.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Hollande will have to govern from the centre if he wins. None of the stuff about 75% tax rates, higher corporate tax rates, increased public spending, reducing the retirement age or unpicking the fiscal compact will ever happen.

France is now bound by the fiscal and monetary approach of Germany. Any attempt to deviate from it would lead to an assault by the bond market on France and a threat to solvency.

The only chance of a change of direction would be the end of the Euro (or Germany's exit). That may be closer with the implosion of the Dutch government over the weekend, but the Euro remains mirred in contradiction and uncertainty.

We'll just have to wait and see,won't we?First of all Hollande has to get elected of course.One thing's for sure TINA(there is no alternative)is not gonna work much longer.In fact it's not working now.:winking:
:winking:

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Hollande will have to govern from the centre if he wins. None of the stuff about 75% tax rates, higher corporate tax rates, increased public spending, reducing the retirement age or unpicking the fiscal compact will ever happen.

France is now bound by the fiscal and monetary approach of Germany. Any attempt to deviate from it would lead to an assault by the bond market on France and a threat to solvency.

The only chance of a change of direction would be the end of the Euro (or Germany's exit). That may be closer with the implosion of the Dutch government over the weekend, but the Euro remains mirred in contradiction and uncertainty.

Spot on! In fact I'd give him the freedom to govern just centre-left, as most of the Presidents of the Fifth Republic before him......................................apart from Sarko. Many would claim that the fact Sarkozy has been our first real right wing President is the main reason for his unpopularity and likely defeat.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Hollande will have to govern from the centre if he wins. None of the stuff about 75% tax rates, higher corporate tax rates, increased public spending, reducing the retirement age or unpicking the fiscal compact will ever happen.

France is now bound by the fiscal and monetary approach of Germany. Any attempt to deviate from it would lead to an assault by the bond market on France and a threat to solvency.

The only chance of a change of direction would be the end of the Euro (or Germany's exit). That may be closer with the implosion of the Dutch government over the weekend, but the Euro remains mirred in contradiction and uncertainty.

We'll just have to wait and see,won't we? First of all he has to get elected of course.
One thing's for sure TINA(there is no alternative)is not gonna work much longer.In fact it's not working now.:winking:

 

[Neil_F]

I can't see it, Barna. France has surrendered its sovereignty over fiscal and monetary policy. There is only scope to tinker at the margins without incurring the wrath of the bond markets.

Would it be worse to have a Sarkozy re-election or Hollande governing on the same agenda?

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

I can't see it, Barna. France has surrendered its sovereignty over fiscal and monetary policy. There is only scope to tinker at the margins without incurring the wrath of the bond markets.

Would it be worse to have a Sarkozy re-election or Hollande governing on the same agenda?

Isn't that true of virtually all countries in the modern world? We have, so called democracies but they really permit us only the difference between tweedle dee and tweedle dum. In a way this is fine, whilst the majority of citizens are content. What happens when one day, total alienation to the status quo leads the majority to elect a government who aren't going to play the game...............this is what I fear for 2017.
Barna, I'm sorry if you believe that Hollande is going to be a radical left-wing 'socialist' leader, those days have gone, (If they were ever there in the first place), in modern European economies. Being in Spain you missed Blair's socialist revolution in the UK:winking: and I fear that it may necessitate a move to Venezuela in order to follow your dream. :smile:

 

[Dick Bate's Protege]

Personally I hope Hollande wins, starts taxing the rich at 75% and drives businesses across the Channel to Britain's loving bosom.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I can't see it, Barna. France has surrendered its sovereignty over fiscal and monetary policy. There is only scope to tinker at the margins without incurring the wrath of the bond markets.

Would it be worse to have a Sarkozy re-election or Hollande governing on the same agenda?

Sarko won't be re-elected.We'll have to wait and see what Hollande does in office but I suspect he could be a game changer for the EU(France is the second largest economy in Europe after all).May 6th is likely to be an historic day for the left in Europe with the Greek election results also being announced then.The left in Europe is on the march.
"Give me that old time religon." Rick Danko and Robbie Robertson(The Band).
"Well it's not what it used to be." Robbie Robertson.
Robbie was right.Unfortunately.:winking:

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Barna, I'm sorry if you believe that Hollande is going to be a radical left-wing 'socialist' leader, those days have gone, (If they were ever there in the first place), in modern European economies

.

Let's see if he keeps his promises.Hollande's election could signal the start of a real revolt against the cuts in Europe. http://gu.com/p/374am
In any case I'd sooner have cuts made by a centre-left Govt in France (and that goes for Spain and the UK too)rather than by a blatantly right-wing one.

Being in Spain you missed Blair's socialist revolution in the UK:winking: and I fear that it may necessitate a move to Venezuela in order to follow your dream. :smile:

I'm proud to say I never voted for Blair(despite having the chance in '97) and since I speak(and understand) Spanish, I know what a ****wit Chavez is.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

“What is right is not always popular and what is popular is not always right.”
― Albert Einstein

 

[canveyshrimper]

Sarko won't be re-elected.We'll have to wait and see what Hollande does in office but I suspect he could be a game changer for the EU(France is the second largest economy in Europe after all).May 6th is likely to be an historic day for the left in Europe with the Greek election results also being announced then.The left in Europe is on the march.
"Give me that old time religon." Rick Danko and Robbie Robertson(The Band).
"Well it's not what it used to be." Robbie Robertson.
Robbie was right.Unfortunately.:winking:

Wasn't the left meant to be "on the march" in the mid 90's it didn't happen then here (despite the goodwill Blair had in 1997) or in Europe then, and it won't happen now.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Interesting little article on turnout in French Presidential elections.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17812595
As someone who participated in election campaigns in England, it is strange how different it is here. It's very true that Public meetings of the candidates draw huge crowds, the equivalent of which, I suppose you would have to go back 70 years and more, to find in the UK.
Voting is virtually seen as a duty and responsibility of being a citizen of the Republic, almost a religious act......fitting that it is always done on a Sunday. A visit to the polling station is rather akin to a visit to the market, my wife don't just go to vote but also to stand around and have a chat to friends and neighbours after their duty has been done.
It is interesting to note that the high turnout is achieved without the machines of organised parties. I don't think there is any canvassing by party activists......I have never encountered any in Toulouse or Saint Gaudens. Perhaps it may happen in the very large cities but even then there is not the organised back up of telling and knocking-up with cars, in order to get the voters of the repective parties to the polling stations on election day. Another thing that is odd, for someone English, is the total lack of atmosphere in streets prior to the election. No one would dream of puting the poster of a candidate in their window, let alone a large poster board in their garden! For colour you have to look on derelict walls and bridges to find that the art of fly-posting is still alive, especially for the minority candidates.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

“What is right is not always popular and what is popular is not always right.”
― Albert Einstein

Are you perhaps suggesting that the MerkelSarko alliance is somehow "right?" :winking:

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Wasn't the left meant to be "on the march" in the mid 90's it didn't happen then here (despite the goodwill Blair had in 1997) or in Europe then, and it won't happen now.

Maybe not but where is the right's plan for economic growth in Europe?:unsure:

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Interesting little article on turnout in French Presidential elections.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17812595
As someone who participated in election campaigns in England, it is strange how different it is here. It's very true that Public meetings of the candidates draw huge crowds, the equivalent of which, I suppose you would have to go back 70 years and more, to find in the UK.
Voting is virtually seen as a duty and responsibility of being a citizen of the Republic, almost a religious act......fitting that it is always done on a Sunday. A visit to the polling station is rather akin to a visit to the market, my wife don't just go to vote but also to stand around and have a chat to friends and neighbours after their duty has been done.
It is interesting to note that the high turnout is achieved without the machines of organised parties. I don't think there is any canvassing by party activists......I have never encountered any in Toulouse or Saint Gaudens. Perhaps it may happen in the very large cities but even then there is not the organised back up of telling and knocking-up with cars, in order to get the voters of the repective parties to the polling stations on election day. Another thing that is odd, for someone English, is the total lack of atmosphere in streets prior to the election. No one would dream of puting the poster of a candidate in their window, let alone a large poster board in their garden! For colour you have to look on derelict walls and bridges to find that the art of fly-posting is still alive, especially for the minority candidates.

On turnout,I happen to think that the high(80% turnout)in the first round will work to Hollande's advantage on 6th May.I suspect that Hollande's supporters will come out in much greater numbers than Sarko's.
Intererestingly,yesterday I saw some projections of the FN vote in the second "tour" breaking down as 50% for Sarko,30% Hollande and 20% abstentions.
Also thought Nigel LaFarge made an interesting suggestion on Newsnight last night, to the effect that Marine La Pen would be unable to rid the FN of its racist image and should start up a new right wing party of her own.That would really shake up the right.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

On turnout,I happen to think that the high(80% turnout)in the first round will work to Hollande's advantage on 6th May.I suspect that Hollande's supporters will come out in much greater numbers than Sarko's.
Intererestingly,yesterday I saw some projections of the FN vote in the second "tour" breaking down as 50% for Sarko,30% Hollande and 20% abstentions.
Also thought Nigel LaFarge made an interesting suggestion on Newsnight last night, to the effect that Marine La Pen would be unable to rid the FN of its racist image and should start up a new right wing party of her own.That would really shake up the right.

Yes, on reflection, I suppose there is a limit to what MLP can do to direct her voters one way or another, although I think that she is due to make a statement during a May Day meeting (no doubt under a statue of Jeanne d'Arc). Perhaps, as you suggested, there could be a slightly larger abstention rate a week on Sunday. I did hear some talk of a change of name for the FN.........not sure if that would be popular with the rank and file. MLP as a loose cannon on the very right (if not extreme right) would certainly spice things up. However, it's all very well changing the name on the packet, if the ingredients inside remain the same...........................

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Yes, on reflection, I suppose there is a limit to what MLP can do to direct her voters one way or another, although I think that she is due to make a statement during a May Day meeting (no doubt under a statue of Jeanne d'Arc).

Traditionally,the FN have never expressly told their supporters how to vote in the second round(except ten years ago of course).:smiles: