The french presidential election............and beyond

[yogi bear up the cagire]

[h=6]From my Facebook Page


A worrying night in the French Presidential Election............and my worry is not for 2012 but for 2017. Nearly a third of French voters chose to vote for the extreme left or extreme right, with a far larger majority opting for the latter. Between 18% and 20% appear to have voted for Le Pen's Front National. On the face of it one would expect this vote to swing behind the right wing candidate Nicolas Sarkozy......but I don't believe this will be the case. I expect the majority of FN votes to go tactically to the left and ensure that François Hollande is swept in to power..........or, more importantly, Sarkozy is put out of power.
If I was a FN tactition I would be relishing the prospect of a Socialist government that would possibly mishandle the economy and create deeper economic problems and social and cultural divisions. With a discredited UMP the FN can establish a new 'popular' right that could move on from a solid base of around 20% and extend it through National, Regional and Local Elections, so that it would be in a strong position to make a play for the Presidency in 2017. Worrying indeed.

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[Mad Cyril]

I for one am not too worried about the rise of French nationalism.

Over the years the reverse side of our banknotes have been well represented by those who have stepped up to put the French back in their place and restore order to Europe.

 

[canveyshrimper]

[h=6]From my Facebook Page


A worrying night in the French Presidential Election............and my worry is not for 2012 but for 2017. Nearly a third of French voters chose to vote for the extreme left or extreme right, with a far larger majority opting for the latter. Between 18% and 20% appear to have voted for Le Pen's Front National. On the face of it one would expect this vote to swing behind the right wing candidate Nicolas Sarkozy......but I don't believe this will be the case. I expect the majority of FN votes to go tactically to the left and ensure that François Hollande is swept in to power..........or, more importantly, Sarkozy is put out of power.
If I was a FN tactition I would be relishing the prospect of a Socialist government that would possibly mishandle the economy and create deeper economic problems and social and cultural divisions. With a discredited UMP the FN can establish a new 'popular' right that could move on from a solid base of around 20% and extend it through National, Regional and Local Elections, so that it would be in a strong position to make a play for the Presidency in 2017. Worrying indeed.

[/h]

Is it more worrying if the extreme right win in 2017 than the extreme left? Personally I see no difference in fascists of right or left.

 

[Benfleet A1]

Didn't this happen the last time France had Presidental Elections? Although Le Pen may seem more acceptable to voters I doubt the FN have changed their spots in any way and the second round will see her off comfortably. Could her voters really bring themselves to vote for the Socialists though?

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Is it more worrying if the extreme right win in 2017 than the extreme left? Personally I see no difference in fascists of right or left.

That's certainly true, either extreme would be catastrophic. However, there is absolutely no chance of the extreme left getting anywhere near power, that cannot be said for the FN. It is indeed possible to see similarities in the politics of of both extremes but it would seem that a large number of lesser educated, disenchanted and unemployed young, who would normally support the far left, have now moved to the FN.
Marine Le Pen has skilfully re-created a FN that 'appears' softer than the party of her father......... less anti-immigrant, anti-semetic and zenophobic and is now appealing to the normal right wing voter. If you look and listen very carefully the mask sometimes slips and you understand that the party hasn't changed at all............just the image. I would almost go so far as to hope for a Sarkozy victory in the Second Round, which would be a disaster for the NF but I don't see it happening.

 

[canveyshrimper]

That's certainly true, either extreme would be catastrophic. However, there is absolutely no chance of the extreme left getting anywhere near power, that cannot be said for the FN. It is indeed possible to see similarities in the politics of of both extremes but it would seem that a large number of lesser educated, disenchanted and unemployed young, who would normally support the far left, have now moved to the FN.
Marine Le Pen has skilfully re-created a FN that 'appears' softer than the party of her father......... less anti-immigrant, anti-semetic and zenophobic and is now appealing to the normal right wing voter. If you look and listen very carefully the mask sometimes slips and you understand that the party hasn't changed at all............just the image. I would almost go so far as to hope for a Sarkozy victory in the Second Round, which would be a disaster for the NF but I don't see it happening.

Interesting and thanks, I figured that the exteme left wouldn't have a chance but with Le Pen polling at 20% yesterday.....
Is this now a straight fight btween Hollande & Sarlozy on 4th May? If so one of them has to find an awful lot of votes to poll 50%+.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Didn't this happen the last time France had Presidental Elections? Although Le Pen may seem more acceptable to voters I doubt the FN have changed their spots in any way and the second round will see her off comfortably. Could her voters really bring themselves to vote for the Socialists though?

In a word YES! I think, not in so many words, Marine Le Pen suggested it last night. They really don't care whether it is Holland or Sarkozy (incidently, you shouldn't underestimate the hate the FN has for the latter). They desire only what is expedient for them in their ultimate quest for power and their number one priority is to get rid of Sarkozy and seriously weaken the UMP. I believe, of course, that you are correct and that the FN hasn't changed at all..............just its image. I noticed last night that one of the BBC correspondents came up with exactly the same view as me.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

[h=6]From my Facebook Page


A worrying night in the French Presidential Election............and my worry is not for 2012 but for 2017. Nearly a third of French voters chose to vote for the extreme left or extreme right, with a far larger majority opting for the latter. Between 18% and 20% appear to have voted for Le Pen's Front National. On the face of it one would expect this vote to swing behind the right wing candidate Nicolas Sarkozy......but I don't believe this will be the case. I expect the majority of FN votes to go tactically to the left and ensure that François Hollande is swept in to power..........or, more importantly, Sarkozy is put out of power.
If I was a FN tactition I would be relishing the prospect of a Socialist government that would possibly mishandle the economy and create deeper economic problems and social and cultural divisions. With a discredited UMP the FN can establish a new 'popular' right that could move on from a solid base of around 20% and extend it through National, Regional and Local Elections, so that it would be in a strong position to make a play for the Presidency in 2017. Worrying indeed.

[/h]

Yogi,
While I fully agree with your concerns about the growth of the extreme-right in France,it seems to me that was most important in the first round was that Sarkozy finished second(the first time ever in the 5th Republic that an incumbent President hasn't finished top)and that Hollande narrowly won, as forecast.I'm now expecting Hollande to win a close contest in the second round in a fortnight's time.I suspect the majority of NF supporters will abstain.The fight back of the European Left starts with France and will(I hope) be continued in Greece's elections next month.Europe badly needs a stategy for growth.Here's hoping that Holland will provide it, in Europe's second biggest economy, and also weaken France's ties with Germany over the Euro.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Interesting and thanks, I figured that the exteme left wouldn't have a chance but with Le Pen polling at 20% yesterday.....
Is this now a straight fight btween Hollande & Sarlozy on 4th May? If so one of them has to find an awful lot of votes to poll 50%+.

The nearly 11% polled by the extreme left (Melenchon) has been promised to Hollande and one supposes that he can count on the few percent got by the Greens and the even further Left parties. He will also no doubt pick up some of the Modem (Lib Dems) 8%..............but with all that he would appear to still be a little short. It is doubtful that he will be able to rely on an increased turn out for the Second Round, as the First was already a formidable 80% (amazing, considering that there is little canvassing and knocking-up here, as in England, on election days)
So, it would appear that the FN voters will be the King makers. I'm sure that there is going to be a very strong, unspoken command over the next couple of weeks, for them to back Hollande and defeat Sarkozy.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Is it more worrying if the extreme right win in 2017 than the extreme left? Personally I see no difference in fascists of right or left.

If you're implying that Mélenchon,(who my wife and daughters voted for)is a fascist,then you're mistaken.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Yogi,
While I fully agree with your concerns about the growth of the extreme-right in France,it seems to me that was most important in the first round was that Sarkozy finished second(the first time ever in the 5th Republic that an incumbent President hasn't finished top)and that Hollande narrowly won, as forecast.I'm now expecting Hollande to win a close contest in the second round in a fortnight's time.I suspect the majority of NF supporters will abstain.The fight back of the European Left starts with France and will(I hope) be continued in Greece's elections next month.Europe badly needs a stategy for growth.Here's hoping that Holland will provide it, in Europe's second biggest economy, and also weaken France's ties with Germany over the Euro.

I would beg to differ with you about the abstention of the NF vote..........we shall see. Whilst I understand your contentment with the possibility of a left-wing advance in France (compensation for the reverse it suffered in Spain?):winking: At the same time I feel that you mustn't be blinkered to the actual threat that Marine Le Pen poses. If, as I expect he will, Hollande becomes President next month, then I think that we should all pray that he doesn't screw it up. I have tried to explain the fearful consequences for France and possibly Europe, of an (extreme) right-wing backlash ................should that happen.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

If you're implying that Mélenchon(who my wife and daughters voted for)is a fascist,then you're mistaken.

I think that Canvey implied that the consequences of a victory for either extreme right or left would be worrying, not that Melenchon was a fascist. However, I think that you should look, with some concern, how a large chunk of potential Melenchon voters seem to have ended up voting for the FN. :sad:

 

[canveyshrimper]

If you're implying that Mélenchon(who my wife and daughters voted for)is a fascist,then you're mistaken.

I'm not implying anything, it is a simple question, is it more worying that the exteme right win than the extreme left? For the record I abhor fascists of both right and left and see no difference in their ideology.

 

[canveyshrimper]

I think that Canvey implied that the consequences of a victory for either extreme right or left would be worrying, not that Melenchon was a fascist. However, I think that you should look, with some concern, how a large chunk of potential Melenchon voters seem to have ended up voting for the FN. :sad:

Indeed I made no implication and posed a simple question which you answered perfectly.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I would beg to differ with you about the abstention of the NF vote..........we shall see

.

Obviously considerable numbers of them will vote for Sarko-they have nowhere else to go.But many will probably abstain, handing victory to Hollande.

Whilst I understand your contentment with the possibility of a left-wing advance in France (compensation for the reverse it suffered in Spain?):winking:

Regretably,it was inevitable that the PSOE in Spain would lose the last election, as soon as Zapatero et al started to impose the cuts demanded on them by the EU.

At the same time I feel that you mustn't be blinkered to the actual threat that Marine Le Pen poses. If, as I expect he will, Hollande becomes President next month, then I think that we should all pray that he doesn't screw it up. I have tried to explain the fearful consequences for France and possibly Europe, of an (extreme) right-wing backlash ................should that happen

.

I'm certainly not blinkered to the threat and I agree with you that it's a real one.However if Hollande doesn't "screw it up" then NF support will hopefully "wither away" again(as it has done in the past).

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

. However, I think that you should look, with some concern, how a large chunk of potential Melenchon voters seem to have ended up voting for the FN. :sad:

Why people would want to vote for the FN I have no idea,unless they're racists.Clearly with nearly 20% support that can't be true(I would hope)of all of them.
In any case, it's how they vote(or don't) in the second round,which is now the primary issue.

 

[Benfleet A1]

Why people would want to vote for the FN I have no idea,unless they're racists.Clearly with nearly 20% support that can't be true(I would hope)of all of them.
In any case, it's how they vote(or don't) in the second round,which is now the primary issue.

Why are those who voted FN automaticly racist? It's too easy to say that and unfair to tar everyone with the same brush. Back in the 1970's a large percentage of the National Front vote in this country were pensioners, many of who had fought in WWII. Would that make them all racist?

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

I'm certainly not blinkered to the threat and I agree with you that it's a real one.However if Hollande doesn't "screw it up" then NF support will hopefully "wither away" again(as it has done in the past).

Barna, with respect, I do fear that you are not fully understanding the machinations of the FN. It is certainly their desire that they will be the main right wing opponents to Hollande (or whichever Socialist candidate) in 2017, that is why they seek, above all, the defeat of Sarkozy. The only way that the NF will disappear back into the woodwork is when, economically, things start to look better and people feel that the perceived threat to their security and well being has been lessened. Then the parasite, that is the FN, will no longer be able to feed on the fears and insecurities of people, offering simplistic and nasty solutions to highly complex problems.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Why people would want to vote for the FN I have no idea,,unless they're racists.Clearly with nearly 20% support that can't be true(I would hope)of all of them.
In any case, it's how they vote(or don't) in the second round,which is now the primary issue.

I find that, again with respect, a VERY worrying statement. I can't believe that you are not understanding fully what is going on here. Marine Le Pen has done and will continue to do her UPMOST, to persuade ordinary people that a vote for the FN is NOT a racist vote. Yesterday has shown that she has had quite a lot of success in that aim .........AND THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT IS SO WORRYING.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Why are those who voted FN automaticly racist? It's too easy to say that and unfair to tar everyone with the same brush.

The FN,like its British counterpart the NF,is fundamentally a racist party.Clearly,a lot of its first round support came from young(and not so young) unemployed voters who are anti-crisis, anti-Europe,anti-Euro and anti-immigration,too ie a protest vote.