So are we safe now?

[fbm]

I've been very tied up work wise this week and have missed a lot of the detail and announcements as they happened and have had to catch up later.

From what I can gather, COSU have shown their hand and are prepared to take a massive risk. They are clearly going to save the club. I guess this means the NL bond, whilst being an issue, isn't seen by them as an insurmountable problem.

I'm tired of reading between lines, second guessing, analysing words in statements and - like many I suspect - just want to know that this coming season we have a club to support.

I think the developments this week mean that we will and that all is ok again, but I wouldn't mind someone closer to the deal just confirming that we are now safe and can stop worrying about an existential crisis.

I'm aware that COSU are taking a massive risk here, but that's on them and they have gone in with their eyes open to that.

So please, for me and the other like minded on here, can someone confirm that we are safe now and if not, why not?

 

[Tommy2holes]

We will never be completely safe until the Rat has gone.

This is something that COSU are working on to achieve as soon as possible by detaching the club from property.

Once that is done we will be fine. Still reliant on the property deal in the background to fund redevelopment but the club will be safe for X amount of years on an agreed tenancy.

What I hope is that COSU pay a ridiculously small rent based on the deal going through, furthing adding pressure for the housing to be agreed.

This could happen in hours/days

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

We’re not safe yet but it looks like the Consortium are going to do everything they can to get us safe.

Paying Stewarts was a huge statement of intent.

 

[Leeboy]

We’re not safe yet but it looks like the Consortium are going to do everything they can to get us safe.

Paying Stewarts was a huge statement of intent.

and PG Skips don't forget

 

[Avl1983]

With the new deal being separated from the property deal is it a completely stupid idea to look at other sites?

I know we all love Roots Hall but when you look at the debt they may have to take on and the cost of maintaining and rebuilding the site would it not at least be worth looking at other sites or is that just a non starter?

I'm wondering partly because it would be nice not to have to deal with Ron again and the potential problems down the line. If we ended up with no stadium what do we do?

 

[pottster]

We aren't safe until ron is gone. Until COSU own the club and roots hall. But we maybe one step closer

 

[Mad Cyril]

Is it safe?

 

[Leeboy]

Is it safe?

Alright Larry

 

[tommy tucker]

Is it safe?

I doubt anyone will say we are safe untill the property devlopment is started .BUT at least we will have money behind them to aviod any more winding up court orders .And players and staff wont have the worry where there wages are coming bfrom and when .

 

[Richard Hearn]

and PG Skips don't forget

Just like elephants.

And members of the corvid family.

 

[WhiteNoise]

People saying that we won't be safe until the Rat is gone, while that may be somewhat true in the immediate sense, once COSU take full control we'll still be a club making a very significant loss with very limited assets. While we can all see the significant potential for our club in this city, and so far all the statements and actions by COSU are positive, I'm still going to be really worried about our long term viability until:
- the renovation/upgrades to RH bring us back to League standard
- our training ground is finalised
- our academy is reinstated and we see players coming through
- we are highly active in the community and rebuild our trust with local businesses and community groups.

I really hope that the days of embargos, points deductions and WUPs are behind us now, and it's good to be optimistic about the future, but we do need to be cautious and give COSU time, while also holding them account to deliver what they have promised over the longer term.

 

[Suomi Shrimper]

If the rollercoaster of the last few days has proved anything, it's that the biggest threat to the club's survival was its continued ownership by Ron. If, as seems likely, that's going to change in the next few days, we're probably safe for at least this season.

Hopefully in a few months the DD completes and unlocks the transfer of the properties to the Consortium. Sure, it's not ideal for that part of the transaction to drag out but COSU must have confidence that the delay to renovations and impact upon extra income streams won't hurt too much in the medium to long term.

I seem to recall that when the Wrexham takeover happened, they didn't acquire the freehold for another year. Appreciating that their owners have deeper pockets than COSU, that staggered approach only seemed to delay rebuilding of their stand, not investments elsewhere. If they could make it work, I'm sure COSU can.

 

[tommy tucker]

If the rollercoaster of the last few days has proved anything, it's that the biggest threat to the club's survival was its continued ownership by Ron. If, as seems likely, that's going to change in the next few days, we're probably safe for at least this season.

Hopefully in a few months the DD completes and unlocks the transfer of the properties to the Consortium. Sure, it's not ideal for that part of the transaction to drag out but COSU must have confidence that the delay to renovations and impact upon extra income streams won't hurt too much in the medium to long term.

I seem to recall that when the Wrexham takeover happened, they didn't acquire the freehold for another year. Appreciating that their owners have deeper pockets than COSU, that staggered approach only seemed to delay rebuilding of their stand, not investments elsewhere. If they could make it work, I'm sure COSU can.

So the transfer of the club from Ron to COSU may take a few more days .But i now beleve it will happen .Then the season tickets must be released ASAP .Im sure the season cards will go through the roof .And bring in much needed funds . f ingers crossed .

 

[Hooly]

@fbm well I was also supposed to be very busy at work but that didn't come to much.

To just add to what others have said. I think the status is probably "much, much safer than we were" but to be fair from 10:30 yesterday that isn't a high bar.

I think there are 3 main highlights
- We apparently avoided the WUP by minutes due to a payment plan agreed with PG Site Serv. The statement released later by them did actually show that their commitment in Dec 2022 of funds to pay the wages probably saved the club then. The thing I found odd is that they stated they had security over property owned by Ron Martin’s family so why they joined the WUP is a little confusing. But certainly their statement did explain where they were coming from.
- The split of the COSU deal from the POSU deal is really where the risk lies going forward but does at least allow the consortium to start repositioning the club financially, hopefully meaning the bond will go away, It seems that a lease was always likely for POSU after the initial takeover under any deal so that may not have changed that much in effect. That deal is still at the vagaries of SCC & Citizen finally signing off but the former do appear to be playing real hardball. The presumption is the the £20M is still part of that deal as I understand it.
- Possibly the key element of the last few days has been the commitment to our cause of SCC LoC Daniel Cowan & his team, I know he has acknowledged their dedication. The effect has almost been like having a loanee player in the consortium. His priority will always & rightly be the people of Southend but there's no doubt that during this loan period he's played his part for the club. Personally I really do believe he wants what is best for SUFC & it's supporters & has managed to find a way to match the benefits to both Club & City. He's come over very professionally & going forward having a good relationship can only be beneficial to both organisations.

Anyway @fbm that's my main takeaways & I would say in terms of overall safety we really are not that far away. Yesterday morning I thought we were not far away from oblivion so we have come a long way in 24 hours.

 

[jnl]

My concern is that SUFC are still vulnerable until we own both Roots Hall stadium and the land. Does the deal keep Ron Martin as our landlord or can we buy the freehold?

 

[Hooly]

My concern is that SUFC are still vulnerable until we own both Roots Hall stadium and the land. Does the deal keep Ron Martin as our landlord or can we buy the freehold?

Ron's group of rats will still own RH as far as I know. However it seems, as I said above, that there was always going to be a timing issue between the club & property transfers even under the previous scenario's.

But, agreed, while we are not in full control there is always a risk & that will realistically continue but decrease massively over time until the final payment of the £20M, on the assumption that is still in the terms.

 

[londonblue]

With the new deal being separated from the property deal is it a completely stupid idea to look at other sites?

I know we all love Roots Hall but when you look at the debt they may have to take on and the cost of maintaining and rebuilding the site would it not at least be worth looking at other sites or is that just a non starter?

I'm wondering partly because it would be nice not to have to deal with Ron again and the potential problems down the line. If we ended up with no stadium what do we do?

That was my thought as well. If it costs too much to maintain and redevelop Roots Hall, and rat doesn't cough up the £20m then it might be cheaper to move.

That won't come as a surprise to many people as I'm not a fan of staying put. I don't like Roots Hall

 

[dusterman]

I’m delighted by the potential decoupling of property and club, but it does beggar the question why this could not have happened earlier.

I guess rat boy knew his original plans were pie in the sky and never getting through DD, so he may have been reticent bit he’s probably reticent still now so I don’t understand why not earlier.

That said, I’m delighted it looks like happening. I’m lubricated and ready to rock on that front so this is not negative.

 

[Leigh_Seasider]

I’m delighted by the potential decoupling of property and club, but it does beggar the question why this could not have happened earlier.

I guess rat boy knew his original plans were pie in the sky and never getting through DD, so he may have been reticent bit he’s probably reticent still now so I don’t understand why not earlier.

That said, I’m delighted it looks like happening. I’m lubricated and ready to rock on that front so this is not negative.

No I'm not sure he did - he believed he'd build a new ground at Fossetts Farm for 20 odd years. What worries me about any talk of a new ground (and well ... let's get COSU in first and this deal over the line) is the amount of time it takes to build just about anything new in Southend .. would we be looking outside the city boundaries??

RH might be a run down ****hole but it's perfect location wise and the thought of moving to some hastily built out of town meccano style ground like that lot up the A12 fills me with dread. I'm sure COSU will cover all this off. I had always thought RH was central to the mid term planning, at least.

 

[Suomi Shrimper]

No I'm not sure he did - he believed he'd build a new ground at Fossetts Farm for 20 odd years. What worries me about any talk of a new ground (and well ... let's get COSU in first and this deal over the line) is the amount of time it takes to build just about anything new in Southend .. would we be looking outside the city boundaries??

RH might be a run down ****hole but it's perfect location wise and the thought of moving to some hastily built out of town meccano style ground like that lot up the A12 fills me with dread. I'm sure COSU will cover all this off. I had always thought RH was central to the mid term planning, at least.

RH is the only stadium in COSU'S plans and they've made that clear. The medium term plan will be a rebuilt East Stand, then we can see what further upgrades the finances and league position could support.