Play-Offs

[TSG]

Well, I predicted three out of four correctly.

Gateshead's defeat is excellent for us and their goal difference is declining nicely.

Altrincham drawing with lowly Ebbsfleet is also excellent for us.

Tamworth's defeat of Eastleigh was expected and they look a real threat to us now. Eastleigh no longer do.

Rochdale's thrashing of Aldershot was unexpected and we can probably discount them as a rival now.

Seventh place at the end of the season will likely be one of ourselves, Gateshead, Altrincham or Tamworth.

Yep, you did well Personally, it's not just 7th now but still think it's 3 from the 5th place club to 10th. (Oldham should have enough to hold on, but maybe not in 4th)

I'm not sure of their run in but I agree with SNB, Halifax can be caught by us even if not knocked out of the top 7.

Rochdale will probably make it, two extra games is useful, and Tamworth, who I earlier thought had played one more game than us, are certainly on a run, but I'm not convinced by the overall quality of the team that they can keep it up.

As ever we will see, but, wow, being a Shrimper, it's not good for your health

 

[LBBlue]

I don't think Gateshead will make the play-offs. They have Forest Green, Hartlepool and Boston away. D&R, York and Southend at home. No easy games, and they've lost 6 on the trot. The race will be with Halifax, Rochdale, Altrincham and Tamworth.

Oldham aren’t certs either - just 2 wins in 11 and away at York, Forest Green and Yeovil.
They could be caught as well.

 

[Billy was Best]

It looks like 6th place was only promoted once in the last ten years

 

[GBJ]

Tamworth are on fire

We’re not terrified

 

[in the know]

Even if Tamworth got promoted I think they'd be straight back down once they have to rip up that awful plastic pitch and play teams at home on grass

 

[TSG]

It looks like 6th place was only promoted once in the last ten years

View attachment 36139

And Grimsby had to beat Wrexham away, oh well, have to do it from 7th then, lets be the first

 

[* ORM *]

Tamworth are on fire

But, but, but, but, we ONLY drew

 

[Barling Magna]

So, next Tuesday it's Woking v Rochdale. Woking ended their dire run of results with a vital win against Braintree yesterday but they are still only 3 points from the drop so we can hope for a fighting draw as Rochdale stutter on through their backlog of games. That would put Rochdale 2 points ahead of us with only one game in hand now.

 

[leeblue]

But, but, but, but, we ONLY drew

The pant wetting over that result was so ridiculous.

 

[rigsby]

And Grimsby had to beat Wrexham away, oh well, have to do it from 7th then, lets be the first

5th is up for grabs. Its now very tight and with Rochdale playing away on the next 2 Tuesdays the table can change I a week.

No doubt there will still be twists and turns but we have a decent run-in. Just need to focus on our games and get at least 4 wins.

 

[Flinty]

Just done a results prediction, 72 points required to hold 7th I think…do simply need to win the remaining home games, beat Ebbsfleet away, then 1 point from Sutton and Gateshead ….sounds doable to me

 

[Barling Magna]

Just done a results prediction, 72 points required to hold 7th I think…do simply need to win the remaining home games, beat Ebbsfleet away, then 1 point from Sutton and Gateshead ….sounds doable to me

With Tamworth bursting through they will likely make the play offs so we need two of the current top seven to bottle it. Gateshead will be one but the other is now more likely to be Halifax than Rochdale. Halifax have the "easiest" run in of any of our rivals, but they will meet teams fighting for their status. It's gonna be close.

Altrincham may still have a part to play - not least because they have to still play Rochdale, Halifax and Tamworth.

 

[Paulie Walnuts]

I think we need to understand that there are no easy games towards the end of the season, and those mid table sides with no pressure/FA to play for except their contracts are notoriously the ones that cause problems for those battling for points.

In Sutton and Solihull Moors we have two of those coming so really need to be on our game if we are to get the results we need.

You can also bring Ebbsfleet into those who have nothing to play for.

I still fancy us to nick that play off place but we need to be aware of what's ahead of us.

 

[Leigh_Seasider]

I think we need to understand that there are no easy games towards the end of the season, and those mid table sides with no pressure/FA to play for except their contracts are notoriously the ones that cause problems for those battling for points.

In Sutton and Solihull Moors we have two of those coming so really need to be on our game if we are to get the results we need.

You can also bring Ebbsfleet into those who have nothing to play for.

I still fancy us to nick that play off place but we need to be aware of what's ahead of us.

Yeah I’m a bit worried about Sutton and Ebbsfleet but I’m hoping big passionate away followings will help carry us over the line

 

[THE SEVENTIES NORTH BANK]

Sutton, regarding playing us, blow hot and cold. I saw them against Forest Green. Looked poor first half. Must have got a rocket at half time, as they were really good 2nd half and deserved a draw at least. So a tricky game for us that one.
Tamworth have to play Forest Green and Altrincham, which is good. Altrincham have to play Halifax, Rochdale and Tamworth. Also good for us. But Rochdale and Halifax have the easier games overall out of those 4 play-off rivals. We just have to keep winning to not rely on others.

 

[THE SEVENTIES NORTH BANK]

Oldham aren’t certs either - just 2 wins in 11 and away at York, Forest Green and Yeovil.
They could be caught as well.

Oldham have points in the bag. Crucial in these types of races. 66 points so far. They will finish top 7.

 

[They Call It Madness!!!]

Sutton are a strange one, made some astute non league signings and had an upward trajectory but as has been said, blow hot and cold.

They smashed us at Roots Hall with their directiveness and strength, hopefully with the momentum now up and running for us we can take it too them and do the job that's needed.

 

[Bar na bas]

I thought I would update this analysis, based on games left and recent form. The last six match form is easily available on the BBC website, in the National League table, but the last ten match form comes from The Fishy.co.uk. Table reproduced below:



Sutton United and then Solihull Moors up for us next, neither in great form (unlike Boston United last week who are on a very good run).

I have updated the table I have produced twice, showing current games played, points gained, points per game over the last ten matches, and that ppg projected forward over the remaining matches this season, following the encouraging win against Oldham on Saturday. I didn't do it after the midweek games, as I believe the Boston United result was a blip, and it was almost inevitable to have at least one poor result in the run in.

This projection has us finishing 7th, even if we only achieve 10 points from the last six matches. I think / hope that we will gain more than that. On form, Tamworth are our closest rivals for 7th spot, but they still have a couple of tricky away matches against Forest Green Rovers and Altrincham, whereas our run in is mainly against lower placed teams.

We shall see. Plenty of twists and turns left over the last 6 to 9 matches.

 

[Bar na bas]

Another thing re the often asked question, how many points will we need to get 7th place.

People sometimes quote how many points the seventh placed teams have obtained in past seasons. The more appropriate question is how many points the eighth placed (ie unsuccessful) team has obtained. After all, the team in 7th could get 75 points, but the 8th placed team only got 70 points, so 71 points would have secured the play off spot.

Here is a table for the last 12 seasons or so, although I think the play-off rules were different for some of those earlier seasons.



Noticeably, in all bar three seasons (2011/12, 2017/18 and 2021/22), 72 points would have secured 7th spot.

We are currently on 59 points, and so four wins and a draw would get us to 72 points. Perhaps that would be enough this season.

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

I don’t get your maths here? Surely 1 point more than 8th place would of got 7th spot, so some of those seasons 68 or 69 points would of sufficed?