Play-Offs

[Barling Magna]

On form, Tamworth are our closest rivals for 7th spot, but they still have a couple of tricky away matches against Forest Green Rovers and Altrincham, whereas our run in is mainly against lower placed teams.

Great analysis. I'm not sure that the Altrincham match will be tricky for Tamworth. Alty are in dreadful form. I reckon Tamworth v Braintree will be trickier for them.

 

[fbm]

I don’t get your maths here? Surely 1 point more than 8th place would of got 7th spot, so some of those seasons 68 or 69 points would of sufficed?

Not when there's more than a one point difference... the team on 7th and their points total is shown in the column. It's one point more than that one which means the team in 8th would get 7th.

 

[Barling Magna]

On February 28th I predicted our remaining 13 results:

Yeovil Away 3 pts
Woking Home 3 pts
Altrincham Home 1 pt
FGR Away 0 pts
Eastleigh Away 0 pts
Boston Away 3 pts
Oldham Home 1 pt
Sutton Away 1 pt
Solihull Away 0 pts
Braintree Home 3 pts
Ebbsfleet Away 3 pts
Wealdstone Home 3 pts
Gateshead Away 0 pts

So, how am I doing after 7 of those 13 matches? It gives me a certain perverse pride to say that every one of my predicted results has proved to be wrong. Yes, every one. That takes some doing especially as I seem to be much better at predicting our rivals results.

By now I predicted we would have gained 58 points. The good news is we have 59.

My predictions for the final six matches give us 10 more points. Hmmm.........

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

Not when there's more than a one point difference... the team on 7th and their points total is shown in the column. It's one point more than that one which means the team in 8th would get 7th.

Yes, but if the team in 8th got 68 points and the team in 7th got 73 points it doesn’t matter they got 73 points. They only needed 69 and they still would have finished 7th, or am I being thick?

So the target would of been 69 that season, not 73?

 

[GBJ]

We need to win four of our remaining six games. That’ll give us 72 points which should be enough.

Sutton - who knows, but we shouldn’t have anything to fear.

Solihull - we usually beat them & by a good margin too.

Braintree - will be a tougher game than earlier in the season, but we should be ok

Ebbsfleet - the leagues whipping boys. They’re bound to get something from us.

Wealdstone - another one who we are hit and miss against

Gateshead - you just know it’s coming down to this game.

Interestingly, the bookies have us at 4/6 to finish in the top 7.

 

[Fairport]

It would help if our goal difference was better. Which is like having a point less. Still all to play for.

 

[Morty01]

I hope it doesn't go down to checking phones non-stop at Gateshead, because odds will be stacked against us. I want, at the very least, for playoffs to be confirmed with a win/draw - I hope some can agree!


...though winning all our remaining games and getting 4th would also be nice.

 

[Shrimpergonzo]

The way I see it is the top 3 are settled.

For the remaining 4 places:

• Oldham should be fine.
• Halifax aren't in great form but have an easyish run in, so I think they'll be OK.
• Rochdale have 8 games left so I think they'll be OK.

This leaves 1 play-off place to play for and it's between us, Gateshead, Altrincham and Tamworth.

Ourselves and Tamworth are the two form teams out of that bunch, with Tamworth having the most points to make up.



Tamworth's run in looks good though, so let's not right them off.



If it's tight, then the games on the last day of the season couldn't have been planned out better (for the neutrals!):

Gateshead v Southend
Altrincham v Tamworth

 

[Leeboy]

I said this in the 'Focus on Gateshead' thread - it if does come down to the last game, surely the Club should open up the Shrimpers Bar and have the game on for any fans who can't make it Oop North?

If they can open up the Far Post for Paddy's Day surely they can do this?

They'd make their money back easy

 

[Bar na bas]

I don’t get your maths here? Surely 1 point more than 8th place would of got 7th spot, so some of those seasons 68 or 69 points would of sufficed?

Ah, note to self. I wrote this way too late at night. You are absolutely right, in some of those seasons, 68 or 69 points would have secured 7th spot. Indeed, in 2012/13, 67 points would have sufficed.

What I was trying to indicate was that 72 points will probably be enough to secure seventh. That is a reasonable target for us, as it will require us getting four wins and a draw in our remaining games.

In nine of those 12 completed seasons (excluding 2019/20 for obvious reasons), 72 points would have guaranteed 7th place. (I factored in that last season, we had the 10 point deduction, without which we would have finished on 75 points, above Gateshead on goal difference, Halifax and Aldershot, so Halifax would have been placed in 8th, with 71 points). Only in three of those seasons would we have needed more than 72 points to finish above 8th place. Hope that clarifies.

Mind you, we can quote statistics all day long to try to prove (or better, support) our dreams. It is the team on the pitch that has to do the actual proving. So the old adage "There are lies, damn lies and statistics." (attributed to Benjamin Disraeli by Mark Twain) will remain, until the end of the match against Gateshead.

Up the Blues ...

 

[Shrimper]

I said this in the 'Focus on Gateshead' thread - it if does come down to the last game, surely the Club should open up the Shrimpers Bar and have the game on for any fans who can't make it Oop North?

If they can open up the Far Post for Paddy's Day surely they can do this?

They'd make their money back easy

This would be a great idea

 

[Blue Yonder]

On February 28th I predicted our remaining 13 results:

Yeovil Away 3 pts
Woking Home 3 pts
Altrincham Home 1 pt
FGR Away 0 pts
Eastleigh Away 0 pts
Boston Away 3 pts
Oldham Home 1 pt
Sutton Away 1 pt
Solihull Away 0 pts
Braintree Home 3 pts
Ebbsfleet Away 3 pts
Wealdstone Home 3 pts
Gateshead Away 0 pts

So, how am I doing after 7 of those 13 matches? It gives me a certain perverse pride to say that every one of my predicted results has proved to be wrong. Yes, every one. That takes some doing especially as I seem to be much better at predicting our rivals results.

By now I predicted we would have gained 58 points. The good news is we have 59.

My predictions for the final six matches give us 10 more points. Hmmm.........

Interesting isn't it ? You, as many of us would, looked at the 'tougher' fixtures and predicted 2 pts from four games and we got 10 ! Then the 'easier' fixtures you predicted 9 points and we managed 2. Boston had barely started their run of form when making the prediction so it was easy to see them as a soft fixture even if it's not how it turned out. I think it highlights our erratic form as much as your ability to predict and who knows what comes next ? If they put the determination and effort in as shown on Saturday, and we get a fair run of luck, we'll get there.

 

[* ORM *]

One game at a time please

 

[Shrimp and two veg]

One game at a time please

Bang on fella. Said all along these others will be tripping up constantly, other than the top 3. Just important to try and keep on a good run, one game at a time.

 

[greyerfox]

Sutton at Braintree tomorrow in NL Cup. Good opportunity for someone from Blues to do some assessments bearing in mind our remaining fixtures. Demi perhaps? And Kev too?
And Rochdale continue their catch up matches away at Woking.

 

[Shrimper]

Mentioned in the other thread but could Southend look to show the games v Ebbsfleet and Gateshead at the ground? Would raise some money and no restrictions on showing them as they're not 3pm Saturday

 

[in the know]

The way I see it is the top 3 are settled.

For the remaining 4 places:

• Oldham should be fine.
• Halifax aren't in great form but have an easyish run in, so I think they'll be OK.
• Rochdale have 8 games left so I think they'll be OK.

This leaves 1 play-off place to play for and it's between us, Gateshead, Altrincham and Tamworth.

Ourselves and Tamworth are the two form teams out of that bunch, with Tamworth having the most points to make up.

View attachment 36177

Tamworth's run in looks good though, so let's not right them off.

View attachment 36178

If it's tight, then the games on the last day of the season couldn't have been planned out better (for the neutrals!):

Gateshead v Southend
Altrincham v Tamworth

great info, and pleased to see Tamworth aren't at home on their horrible plastic pitch for that last game.

 

[fbm]

Yes, but if the team in 8th got 68 points and the team in 7th got 73 points it doesn’t matter they got 73 points. They only needed 69 and they still would have finished 7th, or am I being thick?

So the target would of been 69 that season, not 73?

Ah, I see what you mean. I was looking at it the other way around.

 

[ColinMorrisWalksOnWater]

Talking about one game at a time. With us focused on 7th place or better, it is feasible that we could make 7th by full time on Saturday.

We have to win at Sutton, but we know that anyway.

Should Rochdale not win at Woking tomorrow, they play in the FA Trophy Semi Final on Saturday, so will go back to having 2 games in hand whatever by tea time Saturday.

Also, if Gateshead do not beat Dagenham, who are fighting to stay in the division and need all the points they can get.

Either one of the above two occur and we go 7th, BUT if both occurred, we could be 6th on Saturday evening.

If we stay outside the top seven after Saturday, all is not lost, but it is so nice to have this possibility after the past few seasons and the erratic start on and off the pitch at the start of this season.

Never a dull moment being a Shrimper!

 

[Goodwin]

I said this in the 'Focus on Gateshead' thread - it if does come down to the last game, surely the Club should open up the Shrimpers Bar and have the game on for any fans who can't make it Oop North?

If they can open up the Far Post for Paddy's Day surely they can do this?

They'd make their money back easy

Put it on the big screen and make even more money for the club