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Play offs / doing a Barnsley

Forums New posts
THE SEVENTIES NORTH BANK said:
If it's based on current form, I don't see how it ends up that we finish more or less where we are now. Also, some of those above us are going through a poor run of current form. My brain is confident that we will finish better than 13th.
Click to expand...

Yes, it does look strange, but you have to remember that TWO of the teams that we have to play have just won their last FIVE matches.

Even with great 'Current Form', it is still very difficult to WIN matches AWAY from home in League One (Well that is what 'History' tells us).

The fact that lowly Oldham are FAVOURITES to beat the 'On Form' Southend United, this weekend, is a good example of that......
 
Those away win % ratio stats are shocking.

Just a 29% chance of winning at bottom side Rochdale that has only won 4 games at home so far this season.

Yet a higher 31% chance of winning against Oxford, who are just 2 places below us. Who have won 6 and drawn 4 at home.

If only there was a true formula to predict football results!?!?.....the bookies would be out of business. :winking:
 
mattitouk said:
Those away win % ratio stats are shocking.

Just a 29% chance of winning at bottom side Rochdale that has only won 4 games at home so far this season.

Yet a higher 31% chance of winning against Oxford, who are just 2 places below us. Who have won 6 and drawn 4 at home.

If only there was a true formula to predict football results!?!?.....the bookies would be out of business. :winking:
Click to expand...

Yes, you are right.....I will go away and talk to the 'Computer'....Maybe it got a bit carried away with Rochdale's result last Sunday.....
 
llama said:
Based on current form (Which will obviously change).
Based on computer simulations from thousands of historical matches (Reasonably accurate).

Below is the Computer estimate on how many points Southend will accumulate from their remaining 13 matches.



[TABLE="width: 686"]
[TR]
[TD]Date[/TD]
[TD]Opponents[/TD]
[TD]Venue[/TD]
[TD]Win%[/TD]
[TD]Draw%[/TD]
[TD]Lose%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Points[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24-Feb[/TD]
[TD]Oldham[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]29.54%[/TD]
[TD]26.78%[/TD]
[TD]43.67%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]03-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Walsall[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]48.73%[/TD]
[TD]27.75%[/TD]
[TD]23.50%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.74[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Doncaster[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]38.48%[/TD]
[TD]30.04%[/TD]
[TD]31.46%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Rochdale[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]29.54%[/TD]
[TD]26.78%[/TD]
[TD]43.67%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Blackpool[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]31.15%[/TD]
[TD]27.31%[/TD]
[TD]41.53%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Rotherham[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]29.85%[/TD]
[TD]29.15%[/TD]
[TD]40.98%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]30-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Plymouth[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]21.28%[/TD]
[TD]26.32%[/TD]
[TD]52.38%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.90[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]02-Apr[/TD]
[TD]Gillingham[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]45.46%[/TD]
[TD]28.41%[/TD]
[TD]26.11%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.65[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]07-Apr[/TD]
[TD]Blackburn[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]14.93%[/TD]
[TD]21.74%[/TD]
[TD]63.31%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.67[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14-Apr[/TD]
[TD]Oxford[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]31.15%[/TD]
[TD]27.31%[/TD]
[TD]41.53%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21-Apr[/TD]
[TD]MK Dons[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]52.38%[/TD]
[TD]26.32%[/TD]
[TD]21.28%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.83[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]28-Apr[/TD]
[TD]Bradford[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]21.28%[/TD]
[TD]26.32%[/TD]
[TD]52.38%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.90[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]05-May[/TD]
[TD]Bristol Rovers[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]45.46%[/TD]
[TD]28.41%[/TD]
[TD]26.11%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.65[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[TD]16.71[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

This is telling us that Southend are expected to accumulate another 16.71 points, totaling 60.71 points for the season and ending in a very comfortable 13th position in the table.
Click to expand...

How is that calculated? It has us only greater than 50% for 1 win between now and the end of the season.
 
llama said:
Yes, you are right.....I will go away and talk to the 'Computer'....Maybe it got a bit carried away with Rochdale's result last Sunday.....
Click to expand...

Yes - you give it a right good talking to! And I look forward to a more "postive" prediction! :smile:



P.S. Did you know that there are 4 different camelids native to South America and Llama is pronounced Yama in Peru?
 
Oldham draw
Walsall win
Doncaster win
Rochdale draw
Blackpool win
Rotherham win
Plymouth draw
Gillingham win
Blackburn loss
Oxford win
MK dons win
Bradford loss
Rovers win

73 points......
 
Seeing that Rochdale are 52.7% chance of beating MK Dons tonight, I have factored in a more of a bias towards 'Fortress Roots Hall'.

So we are now 11th with 61.48 points.


[TABLE="width: 686"]
[TR]
[TD]Date[/TD]
[TD]Opponents[/TD]
[TD]Venue[/TD]
[TD]Win%[/TD]
[TD]Draw%[/TD]
[TD]Lose%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Points[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24-Feb[/TD]
[TD]Oldham[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]29.54%[/TD]
[TD]26.78%[/TD]
[TD]43.67%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]03-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Walsall[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]53.19%[/TD]
[TD]25.97%[/TD]
[TD]20.830%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.86[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Doncaster[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]47.6%[/TD]
[TD]32.99%[/TD]
[TD]19.4%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.76[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Rochdale[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]31.15%[/TD]
[TD]27.31%[/TD]
[TD]41.53%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Blackpool[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]29.54%[/TD]
[TD]26.78%[/TD]
[TD]43.67%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Rotherham[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]29.85%[/TD]
[TD]29.15%[/TD]
[TD]40.98%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]30-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Plymouth[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]21.28%[/TD]
[TD]26.32%[/TD]
[TD]52.38%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.90[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]02-Apr[/TD]
[TD]Gillingham[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]47.6%[/TD]
[TD]32.99%[/TD]
[TD]19.4%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.76[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]07-Apr[/TD]
[TD]Blackburn[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]14.93%[/TD]
[TD]21.74%[/TD]
[TD]63.31%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.67[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14-Apr[/TD]
[TD]Oxford[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]28.62%[/TD]
[TD]26.85%[/TD]
[TD]44.52%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21-Apr[/TD]
[TD]MK Dons[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]64.26%[/TD]
[TD]23.04%[/TD]
[TD]12.69%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]2.16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]28-Apr[/TD]
[TD]Bradford[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]21.28%[/TD]
[TD]26.32%[/TD]
[TD]52.38%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.90[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]05-May[/TD]
[TD]Bristol Rovers[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]45.46%[/TD]
[TD]28.41%[/TD]
[TD]26.11%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.65[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[TD]17.48[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
Just as a general interest thing, it looks like 71 might be the minimum now for any teams still hoping for a play-off spot, but spare a thought for one of those three teams at the top who will miss out on automatic promotion.

It's not inconceivable that a team will finish on as many as 93 points and end up in the play-offs! :omg:
 
llama said:
Seeing that Rochdale are 52.7% chance of beating MK Dons tonight, I have factored in a more of a bias towards 'Fortress Roots Hall'.

So we are now 11th with 61.48 points.


[TABLE="width: 686"]
[TR]
[TD]Date[/TD]
[TD]Opponents[/TD]
[TD]Venue[/TD]
[TD]Win%[/TD]
[TD]Draw%[/TD]
[TD]Lose%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Points[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24-Feb[/TD]
[TD]Oldham[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]29.54%[/TD]
[TD]26.78%[/TD]
[TD]43.67%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]03-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Walsall[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]53.19%[/TD]
[TD]25.97%[/TD]
[TD]20.830%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.86[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Doncaster[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]47.6%[/TD]
[TD]32.99%[/TD]
[TD]19.4%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.76[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Rochdale[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]31.15%[/TD]
[TD]27.31%[/TD]
[TD]41.53%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Blackpool[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]29.54%[/TD]
[TD]26.78%[/TD]
[TD]43.67%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Rotherham[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]29.85%[/TD]
[TD]29.15%[/TD]
[TD]40.98%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]30-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Plymouth[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]21.28%[/TD]
[TD]26.32%[/TD]
[TD]52.38%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.90[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]02-Apr[/TD]
[TD]Gillingham[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]47.6%[/TD]
[TD]32.99%[/TD]
[TD]19.4%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.76[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]07-Apr[/TD]
[TD]Blackburn[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]14.93%[/TD]
[TD]21.74%[/TD]
[TD]63.31%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.67[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14-Apr[/TD]
[TD]Oxford[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]28.62%[/TD]
[TD]26.85%[/TD]
[TD]44.52%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21-Apr[/TD]
[TD]MK Dons[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]64.26%[/TD]
[TD]23.04%[/TD]
[TD]12.69%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]2.16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]28-Apr[/TD]
[TD]Bradford[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]21.28%[/TD]
[TD]26.32%[/TD]
[TD]52.38%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.90[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]05-May[/TD]
[TD]Bristol Rovers[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]45.46%[/TD]
[TD]28.41%[/TD]
[TD]26.11%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.65[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[TD]17.48[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Click to expand...

We are currently 0.83 pts below that target!
 
AndyT said:
Just as a general interest thing, it looks like 71 might be the minimum now for any teams still hoping for a play-off spot, but spare a thought for one of those three teams at the top who will miss out on automatic promotion.

It's not inconceivable that a team will finish on as many as 93 points and end up in the play-offs! :omg:
Click to expand...

And still in League 1 next season - which would be a mockery.
 
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