Play offs / doing a Barnsley

[AndyT]

The other factor of course was the inexperienced forward line and the fact their keeper sounds like he was MOM.

 

[Barling Magna]

Our next five fixtures are against teams that are below us in the table and for the most part in dreadful form. So it isn't too unrealistic to suggest that we should win all five. However we then face Rotherham followed by Plymouth both of whom have won their last five matches. So let's say that after the next seven matches we sit on 59 points as we enter April with six matches left. Unfortunately those six matches are against five strong teams and the MK franchise so we'll be fortunate to secure the twelve or so points needed for a play off place. Should be an interesting end to the season though!

 

[londonblue]

Once we get 55 points I will start looking upwards

Only the top 5 are safe then...

 

[Firestorm]

Only the top 5 are safe then...

I doubt if many of them have been relegated with 54 points before and , as a result, are probably not quite so pessimistic.

 

[maninasuitcase]

When Powell arrived with 18 games to go, to have any chance of the play off we would have to win 14 of those games. After four wins in five, we need 10 wins from 13 matches.

The mathematics hasn't really changed. It is a long shot, but stranger things have happened.

 

[Thundersley Blue]

Think the play offs are a real long shot. Should we be able to field our stongest side for the rest of the season then an outside chance. However, we all know the squad is very thin in certain areas thanks to injuries. No,

 

[Thundersley Blue]

Oops not sure how I managed that ! Meant to finish, I would be happy to see us end up in a comfortable position, allowing Chris to have time to properly assess what he has and what he wants.

 

[Shrimper2thecore]

Our away form needs to improve for us to even have a shot of doing this, we've played 2 away matches under Powell and scored 1 goal (which was a penalty).

But conceded none.

4 points from 2 away games is very good form....

 

[superblue24]

Not to throw doom and gloom onto this thread, but I think the damage is already done as far as this season is concerned. The lowest points required to get into the Play Offs in recent times has been 69 by Crewe a few years back. Other than this one outlier, we are generally looking at needing around 73-75 points to sneak into the final spot.

We have 13 games left and require 30 points to reach the "promise land". This is 10 victories and 3 losses (or 4 draws and 9 victories, or some other combination) against:

Oldham (21)
Walsall (16)
Doncaster (14)
Rochdale (24)
Blackpool (17)
Rotherham (4)
Plymouth (7)
Gillingham (11)
Blackburn (1)
Oxford (15)
MK Dons (22)
Bradford (8)
Bristol Rovers (12)

As soon as the 73-75 point target is unattainable, which could be somewhere in the middle of that lot above, the dream is over for this season anyway.

 

[Jai]

Finish in top half and above Gillingham and we will have turned a very poor season into a decent one. I think most people agree we overachieved last season.

 

[superblue24]

The flip-side of course being that if we win the next 5 games against what, on paper, looks like average opposition, suddenly 10/13 becomes 5/8 going into the Rotherham game. At that point, we could be sizing them up as Play off rivals....

 

[greyerfox]

Gills and Pompey both playing away tonight. Defeat for both would be handy and provide more opportunity to climb the table.

 

[mattitouk]

Yeah, and Rochdale beating the plastic Franchise tomorrow night would be a bonus also.

The only downside to them winning tonight, and looking at some of Saturdays League One fixtures, if things don't go our away against Oldham, we could be closer to the relegation zone again.

 

[THE SEVENTIES NORTH BANK]

Yeah, and Rochdale beating the plastic Franchise tomorrow night would be a bonus also.

The only downside to them winning tonight, and looking at some of Saturdays League One fixtures, if things don't go our away against Oldham, we could be closer to the relegation zone again.

There is no way we're getting relegated even if we lose against Oldham. This new style of play is working. The players are now united, playing for each other and the new Manager. I'm more concerned about where in the top half we will finish.

 

[mattitouk]

I never said we were going to get relegated, i'm confident we will pick up 11 points in the remaining 13 games, to guide us to safety.

As for being more concerned about finishing higher up the table, for me it's 6th place & having a crack at the play off's or I don't really mind if we finish 7th or 20th (i believe we don't receive any more money than others the higher up the table we climb, like in the Premier League).

It's more about survival, re-building & strengthening the squad and seriously challenging for promotion next season.

 

[maninasuitcase]

The flip-side of course being that if we win the next 5 games against what, on paper, looks like average opposition, suddenly 10/13 becomes 5/8 going into the Rotherham game. At that point, we could be sizing them up as Play off rivals....

Exactly, that Powell's job to make them believe that is still possible and that they can do it. And of course you would not think a professional footballer worth his salt would give up until it's mathematically impossible.

 

[llama]

Based on current form (Which will obviously change).
Based on computer simulations from thousands of historical matches (Reasonably accurate).

Below is the Computer estimate on how many points Southend will accumulate from their remaining 13 matches.



[TABLE="width: 686"]
[TR]
[TD]Date[/TD]
[TD]Opponents[/TD]
[TD]Venue[/TD]
[TD]Win%[/TD]
[TD]Draw%[/TD]
[TD]Lose%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Points[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24-Feb[/TD]
[TD]Oldham[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]29.54%[/TD]
[TD]26.78%[/TD]
[TD]43.67%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]03-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Walsall[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]48.73%[/TD]
[TD]27.75%[/TD]
[TD]23.50%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.74[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Doncaster[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]38.48%[/TD]
[TD]30.04%[/TD]
[TD]31.46%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Rochdale[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]29.54%[/TD]
[TD]26.78%[/TD]
[TD]43.67%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Blackpool[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]31.15%[/TD]
[TD]27.31%[/TD]
[TD]41.53%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Rotherham[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]29.85%[/TD]
[TD]29.15%[/TD]
[TD]40.98%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]30-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Plymouth[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]21.28%[/TD]
[TD]26.32%[/TD]
[TD]52.38%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.90[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]02-Apr[/TD]
[TD]Gillingham[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]45.46%[/TD]
[TD]28.41%[/TD]
[TD]26.11%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.65[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]07-Apr[/TD]
[TD]Blackburn[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]14.93%[/TD]
[TD]21.74%[/TD]
[TD]63.31%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.67[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14-Apr[/TD]
[TD]Oxford[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]31.15%[/TD]
[TD]27.31%[/TD]
[TD]41.53%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21-Apr[/TD]
[TD]MK Dons[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]52.38%[/TD]
[TD]26.32%[/TD]
[TD]21.28%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.83[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]28-Apr[/TD]
[TD]Bradford[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]21.28%[/TD]
[TD]26.32%[/TD]
[TD]52.38%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.90[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]05-May[/TD]
[TD]Bristol Rovers[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]45.46%[/TD]
[TD]28.41%[/TD]
[TD]26.11%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.65[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[TD]16.71[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

This is telling us that Southend are expected to accumulate another 16.71 points, totaling 60.71 points for the season and ending in a very comfortable 13th position in the table.

 

[Barling Magna]

My non-computer prediction is:

We win the next five matches.

We draw with Rotherham, then lose to Plymouth.

We beat Gilingham but lose at Blackburn.

We draw with Oxford, beat the Dons, lose at Bradford and beat the Gas in our final match.

26 points gained to end on 70 points in seventh or eighth place, but ready and willing to storm the division next season.

 

[LennySUFC]

I honestly don't care where we finish this season, bar relegation, because I genuinely feel next season is our season. I am also really enjoying watching us play for the first time in a long time!

 

[THE SEVENTIES NORTH BANK]

Based on current form (Which will obviously change).
Based on computer simulations from thousands of historical matches (Reasonably accurate).

Below is the Computer estimate on how many points Southend will accumulate from their remaining 13 matches.



[TABLE="width: 686"]
[TR]
[TD]Date[/TD]
[TD]Opponents[/TD]
[TD]Venue[/TD]
[TD]Win%[/TD]
[TD]Draw%[/TD]
[TD]Lose%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Points[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24-Feb[/TD]
[TD]Oldham[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]29.54%[/TD]
[TD]26.78%[/TD]
[TD]43.67%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]03-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Walsall[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]48.73%[/TD]
[TD]27.75%[/TD]
[TD]23.50%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.74[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Doncaster[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]38.48%[/TD]
[TD]30.04%[/TD]
[TD]31.46%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Rochdale[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]29.54%[/TD]
[TD]26.78%[/TD]
[TD]43.67%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Blackpool[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]31.15%[/TD]
[TD]27.31%[/TD]
[TD]41.53%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Rotherham[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]29.85%[/TD]
[TD]29.15%[/TD]
[TD]40.98%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]30-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Plymouth[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]21.28%[/TD]
[TD]26.32%[/TD]
[TD]52.38%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.90[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]02-Apr[/TD]
[TD]Gillingham[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]45.46%[/TD]
[TD]28.41%[/TD]
[TD]26.11%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.65[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]07-Apr[/TD]
[TD]Blackburn[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]14.93%[/TD]
[TD]21.74%[/TD]
[TD]63.31%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.67[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14-Apr[/TD]
[TD]Oxford[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]31.15%[/TD]
[TD]27.31%[/TD]
[TD]41.53%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21-Apr[/TD]
[TD]MK Dons[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]52.38%[/TD]
[TD]26.32%[/TD]
[TD]21.28%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.83[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]28-Apr[/TD]
[TD]Bradford[/TD]
[TD]Away[/TD]
[TD]21.28%[/TD]
[TD]26.32%[/TD]
[TD]52.38%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.90[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]05-May[/TD]
[TD]Bristol Rovers[/TD]
[TD]Home[/TD]
[TD]45.46%[/TD]
[TD]28.41%[/TD]
[TD]26.11%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.65[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[TD]16.71[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

This is telling us that Southend are expected to accumulate another 16.71 points, totaling 60.71 points for the season and ending in a very comfortable 13th position in the table.

If it's based on current form, I don't see how it ends up that we finish more or less where we are now. Also, some of those above us are going through a poor run of current form. My brain is confident that we will finish better than 13th.