Jeremy Corbyn's Labour

[Bielzibubz]

One man's forecasts are another man's speculation obviously but if you call serious economic forecasts 'speculation of the worst kind' whatever that means that's up to you. Whether the pound has been overvalued previously is of no relevance to the present situation, but devaluation has proved costly to the economy already and will continue to do its damage, and public awareness of this is only slowly sinking in.

Christ! You make it sound as if the countries already on it's knees with stocks going through the floor, the £ being worthless, rampant inflation and spiralling unemployment. Last time I stuck my head out the door things weren't to bad thank you.:dim:

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

:stunned::stunned: Damn, it's been weeks since you made reference to yourself in a post. Clock starts again :winking:

You're clearly NOT one of the economic illiterates BE mentions are you :thumbsup:

Percentage of UK arms trade or percentage of UK workforce, the figure I quoted remains the same and so does my point.

Anyway, it's irrelevant really because no matter who's in power, JC, TM, BJ or even Uncle Tom Cobbly for that matter, none of them will ever do what is morally right and ban the sale of UK arms to other nation states with questionable human rights records or dodgy involvement in other nations conflicts. We, and in 'we' I mean the United Kingdom politically, socially and economically rely on the trade in arms far to much and God forbid JC ever makes it to Downing Street he'll face the same realities every other PM has faced.

The point remains that BE's figures were rather different from yours (300.000),which as he mentioned had been disputed.

The arms industry contributes 1.4% of our export trade and accounts for 0.26% of our workforce.

I'm under no illusions about the strength of the arms industry in the UK (and elsewhere).However,I happen to believe that under JC, there is a genuine chance for Labour to finally have an "ethical foreign policy" which would preclude arms sales to states like Saudi Arabia.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

The point remains that BE's figures were rather different from yours,which as he mentioned had been disputed.



I'm under no illusions about the strength of the arms industry in the UK (and elsewhere).However,I happen to believe that under JC, there is a genuine chance for Labour to finally have an "ethical foreign policy" which would preclude arms sales to states like Saudi Arabia.

In principle I agree with the no arms sales line BUT selling sophisticated weapons does give some control over those regimes and also helps to slow the power grab that non selling would gift to China, Russia, or many other less ethical countries.
It is not just the export sales that military manufacturing helps boost the UK with; there is an enormous amount of research development with spin off advances. it allows the UK to keep expertise in areas such as nuclear engineering, radar, robotics etc. It allows an independent defence that although uses USA and EU hardware to be predominately self reliant.
With Saudi is it not the case that change is happening faster with the cooperation of 1st world nations than it is in other similar Middle East countries where sanctions and ties have been embargoed?

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Meanwhile in an ICM poll Labour goes one point behind the Tories....and both May and Corbyn according to the poll are failing to enthuse voters.

Not a Corbyn fan particularly but I would have thought we should expect to see him and Labour with a commanding lead.

And yes I know its just a poll and they have been proved wrong in the past...but how far ahead of Tories should Labour be when faced with such an inept and weak Government?

Survation (who called the General Election correctly) have Labour being 7 points ahead of the Tories today.Added to this the Tories lost the 5 council seats they previously held in Thursday's council elections.

 

[Benfleet A1]

Survation (who called the General Election correctly) have Labour being 7 points ahead of the Tories today.Added to this the Tories lost the 5 council seats they previously held in Thursday's council elections.

Any idea what the swing % would be on 7 points? I mean what would that equate in to seats won and lost. And no, its not a trick question.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Any idea what the swing % would be on 7 points? I mean what would that equate in to seats won and lost. And no, its not a trick question.

I'd imagine that would be enough for an overall majority for Labour rather than just NOC.Seem to remember reading they needed a 6% swing after the last GE to achieve that.

I also read recently that if Labour had won just 12 Tory marginals at last year's GE then they and not the Tories would be in power.Fine margins.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Any idea what the swing % would be on 7 points? I mean what would that equate in to seats won and lost. And no, its not a trick question.

State of the Parties 2017 vote share Current Voting Intention Change vs election
CON – 39% (-4) 42.45% 38.94% -3.51%
LAB – 45% (+5) 39.99% 44.84% +4.85%
LD – 7% (nc) 7.37% 7.25% -0.12%
UKIP- 3% (+1) 1.84% 3.32% +1.47%
Others – 6% (-3) 8.35% 5.53% -2.82%

http://survation.com/labour-party-n...rvatives-public-say-theresa-may-resign-49-38/

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

State of the Parties 2017 vote share Current Voting Intention Change vs election
CON – 39% (-4) 42.45% 38.94% -3.51%
LAB – 45% (+5) 39.99% 44.84% +4.85%
LD – 7% (nc) 7.37% 7.25% -0.12%
UKIP- 3% (+1) 1.84% 3.32% +1.47%
Others – 6% (-3) 8.35% 5.53% -2.82%

http://survation.com/labour-party-n...rvatives-public-say-theresa-may-resign-49-38/

from that link this data caught my eye and partly explains why May is still in her job


[TABLE="width: 555"]
[TR="bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]If each of the following was Leader of the Conservative Party, would they make you more, less, or no more likely to vote Conservative at the next election? (All)[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]More likely[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Less likely[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]No more or less likely[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Boris Johnson[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]23%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]31%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]36%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]David Davis[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]14%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]21%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]50%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Michael Gove[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]11%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]33%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]44%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Amber Rudd[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]13%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]26%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Philip Hammond[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]15%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]23%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[callan]

One man's forecasts are another man's speculation obviously but if you call serious economic forecasts 'speculation of the worst kind' whatever that means that's up to you. Whether the pound has been overvalued previously is of no relevance to the present situation, but devaluation has proved costly to the economy already and will continue to do its damage, and public awareness of this is only slowly sinking in.

You appear to be arguing against yourself...I am in agreement with the serious economic experts who have been telling us for years that the pound is over valued.

Brexit has partly brought about a correction in the value of the pound in addition to cuts in spending etc

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance...ued-currency-in-the-world-analysts-claim.html

Most on here will not notice any effect on the pounds devaluation, unless they are paid in a foreign currency or frequently travel, and the devastating effect you claim this has had on uk households is a nonsense especially since we are enjoying steady growth economically....perhaps though you can explain why the UK continues to grow in the face of all the damage that according to you is being caused?

 

[blues exile]

You appear to be arguing against yourself...I am in agreement with the serious economic experts who have been telling us for years that the pound is over valued.

Brexit has partly brought about a correction in the value of the pound in addition to cuts in spending etc

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance...ued-currency-in-the-world-analysts-claim.html

Most on here will not notice any effect on the pounds devaluation, unless they are paid in a foreign currency or frequently travel, and the devastating effect you claim this has had on uk households is a nonsense especially since we are enjoying steady growth economically....perhaps though you can explain why the UK continues to grow in the face of all the damage that according to you is being caused?

A 20% devaluation is hardly something to be dismissed as a mere 'correction'. We are not 'enjoying steady growth' in fact forecasts are being regularly revised downwards as we approach Brexit and reality is starting to bite. i don't underestimate either people on here or the general public. it is gradually dawning on people that the fall in living standards is not just down to years of idealogical Tory austerity but has been made worse by the plunging pound.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

You appear to be arguing against yourself...I am in agreement with the serious economic experts who have been telling us for years that the pound is over valued.

Brexit has partly brought about a correction in the value of the pound in addition to cuts in spending etc

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance...ued-currency-in-the-world-analysts-claim.html

Most on here will not notice any effect on the pounds devaluation, unless they are paid in a foreign currency or frequently travel, and the devastating effect you claim this has had on uk households is a nonsense especially since we are enjoying steady growth economically....perhaps though you can explain why the UK continues to grow in the face of all the damage that according to you is being caused?

I certainly notice it whenever I come back to the UK -as I will be doing again in May-my euros go some 15%+ further than they used to.Thanks.
The sentence of yours which I've highlighed above, rather reminds me of Wilson's famous devaluation speech.:smiles:

 

[rigsby]

The human cost and the dire consequences of the UK being the leading arms supplier to middle east tyrants is not a price worth paying when the blowback from our actions has fuelled the biggest refugee crisis in history, led directly to the deaths of untold numbers of innocent civilians, many of them children, further destabilised an already volatile region and led to terrorism on our streets.

If you consider the massive devaluation of the pound since the referendum, with all the adverse economic consequences that have resulted from it, a mere 'nothing' , before we have even left the EU, then wait until reality starts to bite after March 2019. Anyone who seriously imagines that the UK will be better off outside the EU in any way, shape or form when even the government's own forecasts indicate otherwise needs to forget all the fanciful rhetoric about taking back control etc and start to picture what the UK will look like. Whatever trade deal we strike with the EU (and it's a big assumption that there will be a deal) cannot possibly be as good as the terms we have at the moment. The unravelling of so many interlinked agreements and procedures with little time left to even think about the practicalities, never mind enact them, will only bring chaos in the short term. The eventual result will be a much poorer, inward looking, increasingly divided nation with few friends, at the economic mercy of a rapacious USA, gradually losing any influence or even relevance to mainland Europe and for the vast majority, a standard of living that will inevitably be on a long decline for the foreseeable future.

I'm one of those people who thinks we will be much better off. Labour supporters should back their own party instead of hoping the EU will protect them from those evil Tories.

Once Labour win the next GE we will be the envy off the world. We can vote for better rights and protection for workers, free University for all, the best health system in the world, free housing etc and it can all be paid for by the idle rich.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I'm one of those people who thinks we will be much better off. Labour supporters should back their own party instead of hoping the EU will protect them from those evil Tories.

Once Labour win the next GE we will be the envy off the world. We can vote for better rights and protection for workers, free University for all, the best health system in the world, free housing etc and it can all be paid for by the idle rich.

I seem to remember that at last year's GE [/I]the two major parties, (that's the Tories and Labour btw,not UKIP), :winking: campaigned on a pledge to respect the referendum result and take the UK out of the EU.While I agree (and certainly hope) Labour will win the next election,I'm not so sure about some of your other claims.

 

[rigsby]

I seem to remember that at last year's GE [/I]the two major parties, (that's the Tories and Labour btw,not UKIP), :winking: campaigned on a pledge to respect the referendum result and take the UK out of the EU.While I agree (and certainly hope) Labour will win the next election,I'm not so sure about some of your other claims.

Of course Labour have no intention of honouring that pledge.

They would solve the Irish border problem though. Just like you, JC and his cronies have always disagreed with the majority in NI and wanted a united Ireland. So I'm sure they will honour their pledge to the IRA and make it happen.

With JC and Diane (it would be good if the British army were beaten) Abbott in charge I'm looking forward to all the freebies on offer. Now that I'm semi retired I will certainly apply for a University course.....As long as someone else pays for it all.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Of course Labour have no intention of honouring that pledge.

They would solve the Irish border problem though. Just like you, JC and his cronies have always disagreed with the majority in NI and wanted a united Ireland. So I'm sure they will honour their pledge to the IRA and make it happen.

With JC and Diane (it would be good if the British army were beaten) Abbott in charge I'm looking forward to all the freebies on offer. Now that I'm semi retired I will certainly apply for a University course.....As long as someone else pays for it all.

I fully expect Labour under JC to honour A50 (and the referendum result ) and take the UK out of the EU.

You're right that I'm in favour of a united Ireland.However a colleague (from Dublin) assures me there is no realistic chance of that happening any time soon,if ever.

You might find this article interesting on JC and recent opinion polls.https://www.theguardian.com/comment...remy-corbyn-labour-leader-election-win-voters

Good luck with that Uni course.Not thinking of politics I hope? :winking:

 

[rigsby]

I fully expect Labour under JC to honour A50 (and the referendum result ) and take the UK out of the EU.

You're right that I'm in favour of a united Ireland.However a colleague (from Dublin) assures me there is no realistic chance of that happening any time soon,if ever.

You might find this article interesting on JC and recent opinion polls.https://www.theguardian.com/comment...remy-corbyn-labour-leader-election-win-voters

Good luck with that Uni course.Not thinking of politics I hope? :winking:

Any current opinion polls are pointless as we don't know who will be taking over as PM when May steps down.

Labours down fall will be their failure to either back Brexit or fight it. I predict that the Lib Dems will re-emerge in the next 4 years to take enough remain votes from Labour.

Which is exactly why I will not be studding politics if I ever get the chance. I had more than my fair share of suffering because of left wing, self serving and self righteous union officials leading us to certain defeat. Their cosseted group think social bubbles cost every serving and future serving, firefighter dearly.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Any current opinion polls are pointless as we don't know who will be taking over as PM when May steps down.

Interestingly,this is precisely the point made in the article,which I'm presuming you haven't read. :winking:

Labours down fall will be their failure to either back Brexit or fight it.

I predict that the Lib Dems will re-emerge in the next 4 years to take enough remain votes from Labour.

That's a possible scenario.

Which is exactly why I will not be studding politics if I ever get the chance. I had more than my fair share of suffering because of left wing, self serving and self righteous union officials leading us to certain defeat. Their cosseted group think social bubbles cost every serving and future serving, firefighter dearly.

There were a couple of older guys on the politics degree course I did.One of them got slung out at the end of the first year.The other got his degree.

 

[rigsby]

There were a couple of older guys on the politics degree course I did.One of them got slung out at the end of the first year.The other got his degree.

Perfect example of why people should pay for their own education. Still if uni debt millennial snowflakes are daft enough to vote for free education for me......I will take full advantage. Preferably on some pointless but interesting subject. The best bit will be the snowflakes will pay me rent will I study and then have to pay the long term education debt I will run up......Like I say I love the idea of free education for all.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Perfect example of why people should pay for their own education. Still if uni debt millennial snowflakes are daft enough to vote for free education for me......I will take full advantage. Preferably on some pointless but interesting subject. The best bit will be the snowflakes will pay me rent will I study and then have to pay the long term education debt I will run up......Like I say I love the idea of free education for all.

Not really.The first guy,who failed his year I exams was, rather amusingly,sent a letter of acceptance by the Poly by mistake.The other bloke,Terry,ran a string of newsagents in Brum.He was ex-army and generally respected (if not liked) for the way he argued in support of his right-wing views.

There is, of course, no such thing as a pointless degree subject (with the possible exception of media studies).Anecdotal I know but a mate's young son is in his second year of unemployment here after switching to MS from archeology.

https://www.theguardian.com/educati...k-universities-according-to-graduate-earnings

 

[rigsby]

Not really.The first guy,who failed his year I exams was, rather amusingly,sent a letter of acceptance by the Poly by mistake.The other bloke,Terry,ran a string of newsagents in Brum.He was ex-army and generally respected (if not liked) for the way he argued in support of his right-wing views.

There is, of course, no such thing as a pointless degree subject (with the possible exception of media studies).Anecdotal I know but a mate's young son is in his second year of unemployment here after switching to MS from archeology.

https://www.theguardian.com/educati...k-universities-according-to-graduate-earnings

If so many people will never pay back their uni debt then that proves their degree was pointless. If it was a subject you had no intention of gainfully using then you should pay.

We would be better off encouraging private and certainly big business to fund education. After all they will take the profits and if they really need you to have a degree in a certain subject why not combine it with day release or something similar. Maybe corporation tax should be higher for those that don't participate.

Like wise degrees for nursing or teaching etc should be free providing you stay for 5 or 10 years in that career.