Coronavirus (Non-Politics)

[Massimo Giovanni]

The covid story in Europe is,( because of, imo, the politics and French pushing for a non existant 300 million Sanofi, made in France, jabs); very much a scandal which the press will be ramping up over the next few months, especially when the UK announces all over 50s who want it have been jabbed.
It may be luck and some very good calls by a few UK " buyers" and administrators of the vaccine here BUT sometimes luck is simply taking a chance and getting the right result.

 

[Sandbach Shrimper]

If the numbers continue plummeting at the rate they are, surely there is no justification for making us wait until June to supposedly get 'normal' life back? I thought Boris said he wanted to go on "data not dates" - seems that only applies if the data is bad. Every day in lockdown is another job lost, another business closed, another suicide, another cancer treatment missed.

And you have to wonder why furlough is being extended until September...

 

[Sandbach Shrimper]

Without it I don't think we'd be having the conversation about opening up at the moment. And if/when we did open up, it would only be temporary until next winter. The vaccinations have enabled the current relaxations starting next week

Nothing is "relaxing" next week except schools returning. Being able to sit on a park bench with someone outside your household - which people are doing already - is not ending lockdown. It's not until mid-April on the roadmap that there are significant relaxations, and even then I'm sure we'll have all the 'social distancing' and one-way systems and hand sanitiser everywhere that we had last summer.

 

[jackj13]

You're right, 50-60s who aren't shielding aren't especially high risk but there is still a risk of hospitalisation and death and there is more evidence of long-COVID emerging as particularly nasty and unpleasant, so it's important that we do try to avoid people needlessly getting COVID-19. The second dose is important for the currently available vaccine as it's the only way to maximise effectiveness and also be confident about the effectiveness persisting for a long time.

There is tracking evidence to show that the virus was spread throughout restaurants and pubs. even with safety restrictions.

We're relaxing restrictions at a rate that I think is sensible and I'm as desperate for life to return to normal as anyone else. If vaccine-resistant variants emerge then we could well be back to square one and so it's really important we ensure the numbers fall really low while we ensure as many people are vaccinated as possible, which will avoid novel variants from being able to develop.

I’d love to see the evidence of the virus spreading through restaurants and pubs because I haven’t seen any.

We may have furlough but hospitality have a lot larger outgoings than just there staff and the support their receiving come absolute nowhere near to covering it.

We have a vaccine to stop the most vulnerable getting seriously ill and ending up in hospital. The majority of them have had it. It’s the most vulnerable that are more likely to end up there but the vaccine will prevent it. We can’t keep living in fear. I can’t remember being locked down to prevent 20,000 flu deaths because the most vulnerable have a vaccine for it.

 

[Member]

I’d love to see the evidence of the virus spreading through restaurants and pubs because I haven’t seen any.

We may have furlough but hospitality have a lot larger outgoings than just there staff and the support their receiving come absolute nowhere near to covering it.

We have a vaccine to stop the most vulnerable getting seriously ill and ending up in hospital. The majority of them have had it. It’s the most vulnerable that are more likely to end up there but the vaccine will prevent it. We can’t keep living in fear. I can’t remember being locked down to prevent 20,000 flu deaths because the most vulnerable have a vaccine for it.

I think you're directing your (understandable) frustration at the wrong people. The virus is a real and important threat and lockdown it important to get it under control and buy us time. It's the responsibility of the government to support those people and industries who are most impacted. I don't want to get too political because it's not allowed. We're likely to go into a major recession when the lockdown restrictions are lifted and furlough and other support packages end towards the end of the year. These support packages have been woefully inadequate.

 

[Holy Joe]

Nothing is "relaxing" next week except schools returning. Being able to sit on a park bench with someone outside your household - which people are doing already - is not ending lockdown. It's not until mid-April on the roadmap that there are significant relaxations, and even then I'm sure we'll have all the 'social distancing' and one-way systems and hand sanitiser everywhere that we had last summer.

Well - that is something that is relaxing! There's about 8 million school kids in the UK - that's 8 million people who will restart mixing, circulation etc. That is relaxing restrictions!

As I;ve said before, for every person thinking we're going to slow in ending restrictions, there will be someone thinking we're going too fast. As the debate over the speed of school reopenings show.

the thing is we'll only know with hindsight if reopenings are too fast, arguably we'll never really know if they are too slow. In six to 12 months I'd rather be speculating that it was all too slow, than knowing is was too fast.

 

[Member]

Sorry I forgot to post some studies.

https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0040188

Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening - Nature

An epidemiological model that integrates fine-grained mobility networks illuminates mobility-related mechanisms that contribute to higher infection rates among disadvantaged socioeconomic and racial groups, and finds that restricting maximum occupancy at locations is especially effective for...

www.nature.com

I think the general rule of thumb makes sense when it comes to transmission risk:
- can you wear a mask
- can you socially distance
- is it inside or outside - is it well ventilated
- are you doing a strenuous activity?

restaurants and pubs often have poor ventilation and you can't wear a mask when eating/drinking. Social distancing isn't always enough. There's lots of superspreader evidence in pubs and restaurants unfortunately.

Hopefully we're not far off now from being able to go to the pub and restaurants safely and without worrying about COVID.

 

[jackj13]

I think you're directing your (understandable) frustration at the wrong people. The virus is a real and important threat and lockdown it important to get it under control and buy us time. It's the responsibility of the government to support those people and industries who are most impacted. I don't want to get too political because it's not allowed. We're likely to go into a major recession when the lockdown restrictions are lifted and furlough and other support packages end towards the end of the year. These support packages have been woefully inadequate.

To an extent yes. I just think you can’t blame people when they’ve been given next to no support and are no worse off being open than non-essential shops and opening a month later when the most vulnerable have all been vaccinated.

 

[blueblueblue]

Thought over 50's etc weren't guaranteed a second jab until late April? (All my UK friends of my age (69) have received their first jab.haven't heard of any of them getting their second yet.

It really does depend on where you live in the Country, some are getting the second jab now.

 

[blueblueblue]

Isle of Man has recently gone into a 21 day circuit-breaker after a sudden outbreak.

And they were doing really well at one point with no cases.

 

[Chrisb]

I am 62 and got my letter yesterday to book a first and second jab on line. Which i did.
When you book on line i was given Wednesday 17th March at the Cliffs.
You also have to book your second jab which was Wednesday 2nd June again at the Cliffs.
So all booked within a couple of minutes

Yes, same for me, booked into the Mill Hall in Rayleigh.

 

[kaymac]

And they were doing really well at one point with no cases.

Yep, just goes to show nothing can be taken for granted.

 

[jackj13]

Yep, just goes to show nothing can be taken for granted.

Estimated population of 85,000 people and 52 recorded cases. Will be interesting to track the data and see how many people are seriously ill and end up in hospital. Because if they’re not that is absolute overkill.

 

[rigsby]

Don't we still have the mystery Brazilian carrier on the lose?.......All sounds very exciting and should keep us all focused on the danger.

 

[Member]

To an extent yes. I just think you can’t blame people when they’ve been given next to no support and are no worse off being open than non-essential shops and opening a month later when the most vulnerable have all been vaccinated.

I really don't think I've been blaming anyone. I'm not blaming anyone for their frustration at all of this. I have friends who work in the nightlife industries and they've been completely screwed over in all of this.

 

[Member]

Estimated population of 85,000 people and 52 recorded cases. Will be interesting to track the data and see how many people are seriously ill and end up in hospital. Because if they’re not that is absolute overkill.

It's the counterfactual that's important (what would have happened if the lockdown/circuit breaker hadn't happened).

If the lockdown hadn't happened and the virus had ended up spreading through 10,000 people* on the island, then that's potentially 100 avoidable deaths. The lockdown will have avoided unnecessary deaths, which is important to remember in all of this. The alternative to these lockdowns (e.g. letting the virus just run through the population) is a very large number of avoidable deaths, NHS overload, riots/civil unrest, complete meltdown basically. Plus the risk of new variants that generate when there's lots of cases.

*made up number

 

[kaymac]

Sadly you’re wasting your time explaining, Pubey......

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Sadly you’re wasting your time explaining, Pubey......

Not to those prepared to listen,surely?

 

[kaymac]

Of course not, TuiB, more those few suffering with cerumen?

 

[jackj13]

Sadly you’re wasting your time explaining, Pubey......

Excuse me? I must admit I don’t know about the Isle of Man vaccine rollout. But this is a public forum and I’m entitled to my opinion.